There are 3 dimensions by which I like to evaluate players, and ideally they all point in the same direction. If they do, that's a clean prospect (again, referring only to on the field performance).
1) Production.This is my first go-to. You'll notice that NFL production correlates incredibly well with College production. Historically draft experts have scuffed at this, but now they're realizing more and more that you can tell a lot about a player by their stats. If a guy couldn't get a sack in college, I worry about what he'll do at the NFL level, regardless of his wingspan or quickness.
2) Tape. This needs to validate the above. So many schools and so many systems, that all numbers aren't created equal. Sometimes you'll see a guy with 4 ints and that seems like nice production, but then you watch the tape and he didn't really work for any of them. Just gifts from a terrible QB, or balls bouncing off an open receivers hands. Everything goes through tape.
3) Measurables. This is a grown man's game, and as much as we find outliers who can overcome this, it's still a very important consideration. A DB with production who runs a 4.6 simply won't translate to the NFL. Maybe a few will (Boldin), but it's a red flag. And if a guy has the tape and the production and then blows away the combine, then you run to the podium with his name on the card (i.e. JJ Watt).
So how does Peters stack up?
1) Production. There's one stat that bothers me, and that's games played. But his production is jaw dropping:
- 3 Ints is a good number. To have that in a freshman year is fantastic
- Pick 6 as a freshman
- 11 Passes Defensed as a freshman?! 11 is amazing. 11 as a freshman is just absurd.
- As a sophmore, 4 games, 3.5 TFL... and 5 Ints?! Lets add 9 PDs. In 4 games? I don't even get it...
- This year: 2 games 3 Ints. Ok, this needs to stop. The guy has 11 Ints in 19 games, and 8 over his last 6.
2) Now how is this happening? What's the tape saying? For example, he's got a Forced Fumble. What was that? Maybe an accidental hit and the ball-carrier just dropped it? Maybe these Ints just fell into his hands? Just watch this, and try to keep your jaw from hitting the floor (against Brandin Cooks and OR State last year): http://draftbreakdown.com/video/marcus-peters-vs-oregon-state-2013/. In fact, watch any of them. It's all absurd.
3) 6'0" 198. Still waiting for the rest of the numbers, but I think it's safe to say that measurables won't hold him back.
He's got instincts, ability to stick with WRs, is incredible at 50/50 balls, can turn his hips and high point the ball. He jumps routes on time, and is an absolute thug at the LOS. He's also violent. I'm surprised he hasn't been arrested for assult, based on what he does to WRs trying to catch the ball. The Sherman comparison is a hefty one, but he's got a lot of similarities to his game. I know the team dismissal is nothing to scuff at, but based on what I've seen, I have him rated as the top player in this draft.
Thoughts?
[ Edited by RollinWith21n52 on Jan 25, 2015 at 11:45 AM ]
lol