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Finances, Free Agency and the Future: The Reasons behind the 49ers draft strategy of BPA

Good read. Great points, too.

Thanks!
I love intelligent posters who can see the big picture. Well done! This also now means we hold all the bargaining positions on Crabtree n Iupati if they do want to stay.
Originally posted by matt49er:
I look at it like this. Kaep will get his money, that's a foregone conclusion and the 49ers are going to pay him. But if you look at our team, we have some contracts coming off the books soon that will allow us to pay guys like Crabtree and Aldon also. Gore comes off next year, J.Smith within 2 years will be gone IMO also. Guys like Ray Mac (who's cap # increases after this year) Adam Snyder, Boldin in 2 years one of our vet NTs (Dorsey or Williams) after this year and a few others will come off the books. Combine that with the cap increasing and those guys I just mentioned getting replaced by guys we drafted in 2013 and this year will assist. Here's how I see it.

S.Johnson is the #3 now, #2 potential in the future when Boldin retires will be slightly cheaper (I also think his deal will get restructured)
Gore-replaced by Lattimore/Hyde, significant savings
J.Smith-replaced by Tank significant savings
Dorsey or Williams leaving-replaced by Dial (with the one who stays starting) is a nice savings
Adam Snyder gone-replaced by combination of Thomas/Martin or even J.Martin-nice savings

Then factor in that we got a bunch of guys in this draft who can beast on STs and vets like Ventrone, Spillman, Osgood, Dahl who don't make a ton, but make more than guys on rookie deals will be replaced by these draftees and we net a savings there.

The last factor I see playing in is guys restructuring (or extending for less depending on scenario). We have a group of core guys who have done this for us on several occassions. Reports were that Brooks was going to or did do it this off season. I see him, maybe Ray Mac, VD, Gabbert (who will take a pay cut this year I guarantee that) and likely others I'm missing.

My overall point here, Kaep and Aldon (as long as he doesn't keep doing crazy stupid ish) are def staying around and Crabtree IMO will be a priority. I don't see Stevie Johnson or Ellington as guys the organization view as replacements for him, I see these moves as a concerted effort to get Kaep more weapons, diversify the offense more and open things up.
Good points, but do the math. All speculation until you do the math. True guys come off the books after 2015, BUT your over in 2015 with the salaries and can't recall if it's a HARD cap or there are fines/penalties or a combination of both if you go over.

2015 alone:
Kaepernick- $20 million
Crabtree $10 million

$30 million with only Kaepernick and Crabtree to resign. Do we have $30 million coming off the books next year?

Other 2015 Free Agents that we may want to resign:
QB Blaine Gabbert (we didn't trade for him for a 1 year rental, unless he REALLY sucks)
Mike Iupati
Dan Skuta
Chris Culliver

Thanks to shrewd drafting and IR players, these 2015 free agents have a viable replacement and possibly cut in 2014:
Glenn Dorsey
Kendall Hunter/ Frank Gore
Adam Snyder
CJ Spillman/Raymond Ventrone

ONCE, Kapernick is signed, it's a lot easier to overcome, but the QB raise is a common salary cap speed bump. Check some recent history:

The QB salary/raise is the reason:
1.) We got Anquan Boldin, Ravens shedding salary for QB Joe Flacco pay raise
2.) Packers couldn't resign WR's: Greg Jennings and James Jones
Walterfootball has got mixed feelings about our draft
If people want a fast outside WR there are a few good 2015 WR free agents that may be cheaper and better fits than Michael Crabtree going forward.

#1- Torrey Smith Ravens (may command about the same amount of $$$ as Michael Crabtree)
#2- Jeremy Maclin Eagles
#3- Randall Cobb Packers

#4- Denarius Moore
#5- Cecil Shorts

The 5 above will be cheaper than the top 2015 Free agent WR's.

#1- Demaryius Thomas
#2- Dez Bryant
#3- Brandon Marshall
#4- Roddy White

2015 Risk/Reward options:
Josh Gordon
* Justin Blackmon- won't be surprised if we deal w/the Jaguars again, I would say a 6th/7th rounder for the guy.
Originally posted by Phil:
Originally posted by Garlicboy:
Originally posted by Phil:
My entire point. Crabtree will likely be gone and Boldin will be gone soon and we had a DEEP wide receiver draft where we could have picked up first round talent in the second round. There wont be many, if any, viable WR's in next years draft. The only way this draft gets a B+ from me is if we resign Crabtree, which isn't likely. THIS was the year to get Crabtree and Boldins replacements. The Johnson pick up was great, one down, we're going to have a great WR core this year. After this season it will be Boldin's 13'th year in the NFL. He's definitely gone after 2015 and his play will likely suffer in the 2015 season. The 2015 draft will be extremely lacking in WR talent. So, what do we do? Plan on getting extremely lucky as we did in picking up Boldin and Johnson? It would have been wiser to get a WR in this years draft in the second round, wiser and cheaper (speaking of salary cap).

And then we have the issue of our outside corner backs.....lets go back to this post after we play the season. I hope I'm wrong but we're probably going to be wishing we had better players on the outside. Spending a bunch of late round picks on outside corner backs was a waste of picks.

49ers have one of the best RECEIVING Corps in the NFL for the next 2 years.

2014: Anquan Boldin, Stevie Johnson, Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis and Vance McDonald
2015: Anguan Boldin, Stevie Johnson, Ellington/Patton, Vernon Davis and Vance McDonald

What's more important in the 2014 draft 4th/5th developmental receiver or a RB who may actually supplant Frank Gore THIS year. Frank Gore looked old last year, he looked slower and not as explosive and his yards per carry support that theory. Lattimore and Hyde can put a hurting on the Seahawks THIS YEAR!!!


INACCURATE/FALLACY that there are no WR's in next years draft.

Amari Cooper Alabama 4.3 forty -THIS YEAR
Jalen Strong ASU
Nelson Agholor USC
Rashad Greene FSU
Ty Mongomery Stanford
Kasen Williams Wasthington
Devante Parker Louisville

All these guys are over 6' and are outside receivers.

DeVante Parker, Ty Montgomery, Kasen Williams not so much. And of course a couple skilled WR's will be in the 2015 draft. Who's to say Cooper and Strong enter the draft? Wide receivers enter the draft every year, difference is, this year was a chance to get first round talent in the second and third round. In 2015 we'll most likely have to take a WR in the first. It's simply going to be a depleted draft class. When you have 11 picks in teh best WR class in memory and dont take advantage...well *throws hands in air*


I quit.

Totally disagree. In the first two rounds, 12 WR's were drafted. There is no way the 15th WR off the board is a first round talent. Come on.
Originally posted by Garlicboy:
Originally posted by matt49er:
I look at it like this. Kaep will get his money, that's a foregone conclusion and the 49ers are going to pay him. But if you look at our team, we have some contracts coming off the books soon that will allow us to pay guys like Crabtree and Aldon also. Gore comes off next year, J.Smith within 2 years will be gone IMO also. Guys like Ray Mac (who's cap # increases after this year) Adam Snyder, Boldin in 2 years one of our vet NTs (Dorsey or Williams) after this year and a few others will come off the books. Combine that with the cap increasing and those guys I just mentioned getting replaced by guys we drafted in 2013 and this year will assist. Here's how I see it.

S.Johnson is the #3 now, #2 potential in the future when Boldin retires will be slightly cheaper (I also think his deal will get restructured)
Gore-replaced by Lattimore/Hyde, significant savings
J.Smith-replaced by Tank significant savings
Dorsey or Williams leaving-replaced by Dial (with the one who stays starting) is a nice savings
Adam Snyder gone-replaced by combination of Thomas/Martin or even J.Martin-nice savings

Then factor in that we got a bunch of guys in this draft who can beast on STs and vets like Ventrone, Spillman, Osgood, Dahl who don't make a ton, but make more than guys on rookie deals will be replaced by these draftees and we net a savings there.

The last factor I see playing in is guys restructuring (or extending for less depending on scenario). We have a group of core guys who have done this for us on several occassions. Reports were that Brooks was going to or did do it this off season. I see him, maybe Ray Mac, VD, Gabbert (who will take a pay cut this year I guarantee that) and likely others I'm missing.

My overall point here, Kaep and Aldon (as long as he doesn't keep doing crazy stupid ish) are def staying around and Crabtree IMO will be a priority. I don't see Stevie Johnson or Ellington as guys the organization view as replacements for him, I see these moves as a concerted effort to get Kaep more weapons, diversify the offense more and open things up.
Good points, but do the math. All speculation until you do the math. True guys come off the books after 2015, BUT your over in 2015 with the salaries and can't recall if it's a HARD cap or there are fines/penalties or a combination of both if you go over.

2015 alone:
Kaepernick- $20 million
Crabtree $10 million

$30 million with only Kaepernick and Crabtree to resign. Do we have $30 million coming off the books next year?

Other 2015 Free Agents that we may want to resign:
QB Blaine Gabbert (we didn't trade for him for a 1 year rental, unless he REALLY sucks)
Mike Iupati
Dan Skuta
Chris Culliver

Thanks to shrewd drafting and IR players, these 2015 free agents have a viable replacement and possibly cut in 2014:
Glenn Dorsey
Kendall Hunter/ Frank Gore
Adam Snyder
CJ Spillman/Raymond Ventrone

ONCE, Kapernick is signed, it's a lot easier to overcome, but the QB raise is a common salary cap speed bump. Check some recent history:

The QB salary/raise is the reason:
1.) We got Anquan Boldin, Ravens shedding salary for QB Joe Flacco pay raise
2.) Packers couldn't resign WR's: Greg Jennings and James Jones

You do know that even if Kaepernick is paid $20 million a year, that his cap hit will not be $20 million and will, in fact, be far less than $20 million a year?
[ Edited by Wisconsin49erfan on May 11, 2014 at 10:54 AM ]
Originally posted by DarthNiner:
Good read. Great points, too.

Thanks!


Originally posted by NCommand:
I love intelligent posters who can see the big picture. Well done! This also now means we hold all the bargaining positions on Crabtree n Iupati if they do want to stay.

Thanks
Originally posted by Wisconsin49erfan:
You do know that even if Kaepernick is paid $20 million a year, that his cap hit will not be $20 million and will, in fact, be far less than $20 million a year?

Depends on the bonus money and signing bonus, regardless, it will be a significant amount of money at least $15 million/year. Depends on how it's structured.

Check Flaccos and Aaron Rodgers contracts. Their bases vary tremendously, but their cap hits remain huge. However I'm not well versed on the difference regarding cap hits. I was under the impression that base affects salary cap, but not according to what I'm reading.

If you know the difference perhaps you can enlighten us.
Originally posted by Wisconsin49erfan:
Totally disagree. In the first two rounds, 12 WR's were drafted. There is no way the 15th WR off the board is a first round talent. Come on.

Exactly!

More importantly I would rather have Stevie Johnson for the next 3 years over ANY 2014 WR in the draft, EXCEPT SAMMY WATKINS!

Stevie Johnson is only 27 and proven. Check the Internet, Patriots are happy he's gone as Darrelle Revis had trouble covering him.
In regards to the receiver discussion, people do realize that Stevie Johnson has produced more then Crabtree has in the NFL with lesser talent at the qb position! Not to mention Stevie has given not only Revis but even D!ck Sherman himself a hard time when they are forced to cover Stevie. I want Crabtree back as much as everyone else but Crabtree's financial demands plus his limited production (only one 1,000 yard season) and injury history make me much more comfortable with going with Stevie Johnson. Not to mention he is from the Bay Area so if we were to resign him after these next 3 years he might take a hometown discount.
We will have to wait and see with Crabtree, but it doesn't look like we bring him back for 2015. Just look at the trends in the market. Boldin for a 6th, Desean released, Stevie Johnson for a conditional 4th. With quality players out there to get for nothing, why should we pay a guy whose been hurt half his career big money?
Originally posted by Garlicboy:
Originally posted by matt49er:
Writing is on the wall for Iupati with the Martin and Thomas picks, he's as good as gone. Getting Stevie Johnson and drafting Ellington protects us if Crabs does walk but I still think we try hard to keep him. Boldin is only going to be around 2 more years, I like both Johnson and Ellington but I don't think either are #1 WRs, we will try hard to keep Crabs and I think ultimately, we end up extending him and Kaep this off season and Aldon either after this season or next.

Honestly I hope Crabtree leaves. I think Richard Sherman psyched him out with all the trash talk and "MEDICORE" talk.

Boldin is "the man" at WR on this team. Seahawk DB's mess with Crabtree, but know better than to mess with Anquan Boldin cause he'll -itch slap you.

I feel as though the 49ers can try and move up next year and get that big speed outside receiver. Only speedster's worthy of being drafted in the 1st were Sammy Watkins and Beckham and they went early.

I think next year's class may have some speedsters that the 49ers can pick up in the late first. Or they can go trade route- Josh Gordon?

We'll see what happens.
next draft 2015 Amari Cooper-roll-tide 4.3 functional speed 4.4
Garicboy: great post, you really nailed it.

I thought this was a tremendous draft. It fills future holes and gives us nice flexibility. Here are some random thoughts....

- Iupati is as good as gone, there is no doubt about it. He is going to command a massive contract, but he's probably not worth it. He's a stud in the running game but he doesn't have elite pass protection skills. We signed Kilgore to an extension not too long ago. We've added Marcus Martin and Brandon Thomas. In 2015, two of Kilgore/Thomas/Martin will be starters on this team. I would guess Thomas/Martin. Snyder, who is versatile but sucks, will not make the team.

- I'm not sure if we'll resign Crabtree or not. However, I do believe that some people are underestimating how much he'll get. I'm pretty confident that Crabtree will see a Percy Harvin/Mike Wallace contract. $10-12M a year. He has fantastic hands and some of the best YAC ability in the game. If he leaves (and he probably will), Johnson is a nice option to slide in as a starter opposite Boldin. By that time, Patton/Ellington will have hopefully developed to the point that they are legitimate starting options at the slot position.

- Crabtree and Iupati will both get massive contracts. I could envision a scenario where we receive third-round picks compensation for both (maybe not likely, but I do think it's possible).

- I absolutely loved the Trey Millard pick at the end of the draft. He is a dynamic player that shows great versatility. I also hope he takes Celek's spot on the roster. Celek to me has very little value or utility.

- some people are frustrated by it, but I think this whole "drafting injured players and redshirting them for a year" is a brilliant strategy. We still get four full years out of the player, and it gives us bargain value by being able to draft these players lower than where they would've gone had they been healthy.
Originally posted by Garlicboy:
Originally posted by matt49er:
I look at it like this. Kaep will get his money, that's a foregone conclusion and the 49ers are going to pay him. But if you look at our team, we have some contracts coming off the books soon that will allow us to pay guys like Crabtree and Aldon also. Gore comes off next year, J.Smith within 2 years will be gone IMO also. Guys like Ray Mac (who's cap # increases after this year) Adam Snyder, Boldin in 2 years one of our vet NTs (Dorsey or Williams) after this year and a few others will come off the books. Combine that with the cap increasing and those guys I just mentioned getting replaced by guys we drafted in 2013 and this year will assist. Here's how I see it.

S.Johnson is the #3 now, #2 potential in the future when Boldin retires will be slightly cheaper (I also think his deal will get restructured)
Gore-replaced by Lattimore/Hyde, significant savings
J.Smith-replaced by Tank significant savings
Dorsey or Williams leaving-replaced by Dial (with the one who stays starting) is a nice savings
Adam Snyder gone-replaced by combination of Thomas/Martin or even J.Martin-nice savings

Then factor in that we got a bunch of guys in this draft who can beast on STs and vets like Ventrone, Spillman, Osgood, Dahl who don't make a ton, but make more than guys on rookie deals will be replaced by these draftees and we net a savings there.

The last factor I see playing in is guys restructuring (or extending for less depending on scenario). We have a group of core guys who have done this for us on several occassions. Reports were that Brooks was going to or did do it this off season. I see him, maybe Ray Mac, VD, Gabbert (who will take a pay cut this year I guarantee that) and likely others I'm missing.

My overall point here, Kaep and Aldon (as long as he doesn't keep doing crazy stupid ish) are def staying around and Crabtree IMO will be a priority. I don't see Stevie Johnson or Ellington as guys the organization view as replacements for him, I see these moves as a concerted effort to get Kaep more weapons, diversify the offense more and open things up.
Good points, but do the math. All speculation until you do the math. True guys come off the books after 2015, BUT your over in 2015 with the salaries and can't recall if it's a HARD cap or there are fines/penalties or a combination of both if you go over.

2015 alone:
Kaepernick- $20 million
Crabtree $10 million

$30 million with only Kaepernick and Crabtree to resign. Do we have $30 million coming off the books next year?

Other 2015 Free Agents that we may want to resign:
QB Blaine Gabbert (we didn't trade for him for a 1 year rental, unless he REALLY sucks)
Mike Iupati
Dan Skuta
Chris Culliver

Thanks to shrewd drafting and IR players, these 2015 free agents have a viable replacement and possibly cut in 2014:
Glenn Dorsey
Kendall Hunter/ Frank Gore
Adam Snyder
CJ Spillman/Raymond Ventrone

ONCE, Kapernick is signed, it's a lot easier to overcome, but the QB raise is a common salary cap speed bump. Check some recent history:

The QB salary/raise is the reason:
1.) We got Anquan Boldin, Ravens shedding salary for QB Joe Flacco pay raise
2.) Packers couldn't resign WR's: Greg Jennings and James Jones

I doubt Kap will have a $20M cap number in 2015, or any time soon. It would be detrimental the teams cap.

Crabs I don't think we will pay that much for him.

I hope to keep Dorsey, Ian Williams I am torn, as a ND guy I love him, need to see him in 2014 to decide who is the NT for the future.