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OnTheClock's Final Big 256 Board

Preliminary calculations are in...

Minimum goal to meet: 80% or higher on number of players predicted to be selected.
Players correctly projected to be drafted: 207 out of 256
Overall collective selection accuracy: 81%

Not a failure, but I feel I could've done much better. Very tough with such a deep draft. I expect MadDog will post his numbers soon. We'll see who the Draft King is this year.
  • buck
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 9,625
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Preliminary calculations are in...

Minimum goal to meet: 80% or higher on number of players predicted to be selected.
Players correctly projected to be drafted: 207 out of 256
Overall collective selection accuracy: 81%

Not a failure, but I feel I could've done much better. Very tough with such a deep draft. I expect MadDog will post his numbers soon. We'll see who the Draft King is this year.

Your big board is useful. It challenges my perceptions and makes me reconsider my evaluations.

Thank you for the board and the time and energy that you spend putting it together.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Preliminary calculations are in...

Minimum goal to meet: 80% or higher on number of players predicted to be selected.
Players correctly projected to be drafted: 207 out of 256
Overall collective selection accuracy: 81%

Not a failure, but I feel I could've done much better. Very tough with such a deep draft. I expect MadDog will post his numbers soon. We'll see who the Draft King is this year.

Not sure if guessing the late round players that will be drafted makes you the draft king, but it was impressive how similar his board seemed to be to the 49ers board early on.
  • GEEK
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 17,123
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Preliminary calculations are in...

Minimum goal to meet: 80% or higher on number of players predicted to be selected.
Players correctly projected to be drafted: 207 out of 256
Overall collective selection accuracy: 81%

Not a failure, but I feel I could've done much better. Very tough with such a deep draft. I expect MadDog will post his numbers soon. We'll see who the Draft King is this year.

That's damn good in my opinion - look at the run on WRs, early run on CBs, lack of RBs within the first 50 picks, disparity in QBs, etc.

When you factor all that in, along with insider info in terms of medical and off-field issues, 81% is DAMN good.

Congrats OTC - that's true zone cred right there that verifies your evaluation skills.
Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Preliminary calculations are in...

Minimum goal to meet: 80% or higher on number of players predicted to be selected.
Players correctly projected to be drafted: 207 out of 256
Overall collective selection accuracy: 81%

Not a failure, but I feel I could've done much better. Very tough with such a deep draft. I expect MadDog will post his numbers soon. We'll see who the Draft King is this year.

Not sure if guessing the late round players that will be drafted makes you the draft king, but it was impressive how similar his board seemed to be to the 49ers board early on.

The "Draft King" thing is just a little friendly competition between MD and I to see who can predict the most correct selections.

It is a lot of time, work, and energy that goes into this. As an amateur talent evaluator/scout, you do the best you can without the insider information. Game footage/interviews/historical trends/current philosophy shifts in today's NFL/scheme changes/team needs/class depth analysis/annual averages of selections per position/various other forms of research all are just a part of it.
Just felt like highlighting our picks...

1 Jadeveon Clowney DE South Carolina
2 Greg Robinson OT Auburn
3 Khalil Mack OLB Buffalo
4 Sammy Watkins WR Clemson
5 Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M
6 Jake Matthews OT Texas A&M
7 Mike Evans WR Texas A&M
8 Zack Martin G/T Notre Dame
9 Taylor Lewan OT Michigan
10 Calvin Pryor S Louisville
11 Blake Bortles QB Central Florida
12 Eric Ebron TE North Carolina
13 HaSean Clinton-Dix S Alabama
14 Aaron Donald DT Pittsburgh
15 Justin Gilbert CB Oklahoma State
16 Ryan Shazier OLB Ohio State
17 Odell Beckham, Jr. WR LSU
18 Brandin Cooks WR Oregon State
19 Xavier Su'a-Filo OG UCLA
20 Kyle Fuller CB Virginia Tech
21 Anthony Barr OLB UCLA
22 C.J. Mosley ILB Alabama
23 Derek Carr QB Fresno State
24 Kony Ealy DE Missouri
25 Marqise Lee WR USC
26 Teddy Bridgewater QB Louisville
27 Darqueze Dennard CB Michigan State
28 Ja'Wuan James OT Tennessee
29 Louis Nix DT Notre Dame
30 Kelvin Benjamin WR Florida State
31 Dee Ford DE/OLB Auburn
32 Stephon Tuitt DT Notre Dame
33 Jace Amaro TE Texas Tech
34 Morgan Moses OT Virginia
35 Joel Bitonio OG Nevada
36 Cody Latimer WR Indiana
37 Carlos Hyde RB Ohio State
38 Allen Robinson WR Penn State
39 RaShede Hageman DT Minnesota
40 Bradley Roby CB Ohio State
41 Jimmie Ward S Northern Illinois
42 Timmy Jernigan DT Florida State
43 Donte Moncrief WR Mississippi
44 Davante Adams WR Fresno State
45 Jason Verrett CB TCU
46 Demarcus Lawrence DE/OLB Boise State
47 Scott Crichton DE Oregon State
48 Phillip Gaines CB Rice
49 Jeremiah Attaochu OLB Georgia Tech
50 Bishop Sankey RB Washington
51 Gabe Jackson OG Mississippi State
52 Tom Savage QB Pittsburgh
53 Jordan Matthews WR Vanderbilt
54 Marcus Smith OLB Louisville
55 Cyrus Kouandjio OT Alabama
56 Martavis Bryant WR Clemson
57 DaQuan Jones DT Penn State
58 Tre Mason RB Auburn
59 Deone Bucannon SS Washington State
60 Terrence Brooks FS Florida State
61 Jack Mewhort OT Ohio State
62 Marcus Martin C USC
63 Kareem Martin DE North Carolina
64 Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE Washington
65 Jimmy Garropolo QB Eastern Illinois
66 David Yankey OG Stanford
67 Carl Bradford DE/OLB Arizona State
68 Cameron Fleming OT Stanford
69 AJ McCarron QB Alabama
70 Weston Richburg C Colorado State
71 Chris Borland ILB Wisconsin
72 Bashaud Breeland CB Clemson
73 Troy Niklas TE Notre Dame
74 Terrance West RB Towson
75 Dominique Easley DT Florida
76 Antonio Richardson OT Tennessee
77 Trent Murphy DE/OLB Stanford
78 Kelcy Quarles DT South Carolina
79 LaMarcus Joyner CB Florida State
80 Stanley Jean-Baptiste CB Nebraska
81 Billy Turner OT North Dakota State
82 Paul Richardson WR Colorado
83 Dakota Dozier OG Furman
84 Ka'Deem Carey RB Arizona
85 Bruce Ellington WR South Carolina
86 Kyle Van Noy OLB BYU
87 Trai Turner OG LSU
88 Jordan Tripp OLB Montana
89 Jaylen Watkins CB Florida
90 Andre Williams RB Boston College
91 Dri Archer WR/RB Kent State
92 Robert Herron WR Wyoming
93 Justin Ellis DT Louisiana Tech
94 Pierre Desir CB Lindenwood
95 Telvin Smith OLB Florida State
96 Jeremy Hill RB LSU
97 Keith McGill CB Utah
98 Trevor Reilly OLB Utah
99 Walt Aikens CB Liberty
100 Travis Swanson C Arkansas
101 Zach Mettenberger QB LSU
102 Marcus Roberson CB Florida
103 Lache Seastrunk RB Baylor
104 Anthony Johnson DT LSU
105 Cyril Richardson OG Baylor
106 Ed Reynolds S Stanford
107 Shane Skov ILB Stanford
108 Charles Sims RB West Virginia
109 CJ Fiedorowicz TE Iowa
110 Michael Schofield OT Michigan
111 Rashaad Reynolds CB Oregon State
112 Jackson Jeffecoat DE/OLB Texas
113 Will Clarke DE West Virginia
114 Devonta Freeman RB Florida State
115 Chris Smith DE/OLB Arkansas
116 Christian Kirksey OLB Iowa
117 Nevin Lawson CB Utah State
118 Dion Bailey S USC
119 Jarvis Landry WR LSU
120 Andrew Murray QB Georgia
121 Jared Abbrederis WR Wisconsin
122 Marqueston Huff S Wyoming
123 Will Sutton DT Arizona State
124 Ross Cockrell CB Duke
125 Daniel McCullers NT Tennessee
126 Ego Ferguson DT LSU
127 Christian Jones LB Florida State
128 E.J. Gaines CB Missouri
129 Brock Vereen SS Minnesota
130 Caraun Reid DT Princeton
131 Carlos Fields LB Winston-Salem
132 Terrance Mitchell CB Oregon
133 Craig Loston SS LSU
134 Laurent Duvernay-Tardif OT McGill
135 Brandon Thomas OG Clemson
136 Jemea Thomas CB Georgia Tech
137 Kevin Norwood WR Alabama
138 James Hurst OT North Carolina
139 Arthur Lynch TE Georgia
140 Jerick McKinnon RB Georgia Southern
141 Chris Davis CB Auburn
142 James Gayle DE/OLB Virginia Tech
143 Jay Prosch FB Auburn
144 Jordan Zumwalt OLB UCLA
145 Gabe Ikard C Oklahoma
146 Charles Leno OG Boise State
147 Wesley Johnson G/T Vanderbilt
148 Lamin Barrow ILB LSU
149 Jake Murphy TE Utah
150 Ben Gardner DE/OLB Stanford
151 David Fales QB San Jose State
152 Devin Street WR Pittsburgh
153 Logan Thomas QB Virginia Tech
154 Adrian Hubbard DE/OLB Alabama
155 Brandon Linder OG Miami
156 Josh Huff WR Oregon
157 Brent Urban DE Virginia
158 Anthony Steen OG Alabama
159 Ricardo Allen CB Purdue
160 Storm Johnson RB Central Florida
161 Crockett Gilmore TE Colorado State
162 Taylor Hart DE Oregon
163 AC Leonard TE Tennessee State
164 Michael Campanaro WR Wake Forest
165 Dontae Johnson CB North Carolina State
166 Dezmon Southward S Wisconsin
167 Kevin Pierre-Louis LB Boston College
168 Brandon Coleman WR Rutgers
169 Russell Bodine C/OG North Carolina
170 Brock Coyle ILB Montana
171 Howard Jones OLB Shepherd
172 Khairi Fortt LB Cal
173 Aaron Colvin CB Oklahoma
174 Tyer Gaffney RB Stanford
175 Antone Exum CB/S Virginia Tech
176 Blake Annen TE Cincinnati
177 Josh Mauro DE Stanford
178 Ethan Westbrooks DE/OLB West Texas A&M
179 Matt Patchan OT Boston College
180 Jeff Janis WR Sagniaw Valley State
181 Jay Bromley DT Syracuse
182 Ronald Powell DE/OLB Florida
183 Zack Kerr NT Delaware
184 George Uko DE USC
185 Zach Fulton G/T Tennessee
186 DeAndre Coleman DE Cal
187 Yawin Smallwood ILB Connecticut
188 James White RB Wisconsin
189 Ahmad Dixon SS Baylor
190 Aaron Lynch OLB South Florida
191 Travis Carrie CB Ohio
192 Preston Brown ILB Louisville
193 Ed Stinson DE Alabama
194 Kevin Pamphile OT Purdue
195 Lonnie Ballentine SS Memphis
196 Jon Halapio OG Florida
197 Kendall James CB Maine
198 Devon Kennard LB USC
199 Khairi Thornton DT Southern Miss
200 Marcel Jensen TE Fresno State
201 Jalen Saunders WR Oklahoma
202 Avery Williamson ILB Kentucky
203 Isaiah Crowell RB Alabama State
204 TJ Jones WR Notre Dame
205 Bryan Stork C Florida State
206 Prince Shembo OLB Notre Dame
207 Brandon Watts OLB Georgia Tech
208 John Brown WR Pittsburgh State
209 Max Bullough ILB Michigan State
210 Pat O'Donnell P Miami
211 Justin Britt OT Missouri
212 Corey Linsley C Ohio State
213 Bennet Jackson CB Notre Dame
214 Tyler Larsen C Utah State
215 Trey Millard FB Oklahoma
216 Keith Wenning QB Ball State
217 Shaq Richardson CB Arizona
218 Ryan Grant WR Tulane
219 Rajion Neal RB Tennessee
220 Albert Wilson WR Georgia State
221 Andre Hal CB Vanderbilt
222 Tenny Pelepoi DT Utah
223 Tajh Boyd QB Clemson
224 Tyler Starr OLB South Dakota State
225 Torrance Allen WR West Texas A&M
226 Spencer Long OG Nebraska
227 Marquis Flowers OLB Arizona
228 Ryan Carrethers NT Arkansas State
229 Kenny Ladler S Vanderbilt
230 Cassius Marsh DE/OLB UCLA
231 Garrett Gilbert QB SMU
232 Larry Webster DE/OLB Bloomsburg
233 Colt Lyerla TE Oregon
234 Garrett Scott OT Marshall
235 Tim Cornett RB UNLV
236 Derrell Johnson OLB East Carolina
237 Tre Boston S North Carolina
238 Kenneth Acker CB SMU
239 Seantrel Henderson OT Miami
240 Vinnie Sunseri SS Alabama
241 L'Damian Washington WR Missouri
242 Eric Pinkins S San Diego State243 Gator Hoskins FB/TE Marshall
244 Michael Sam DE/OLB Missouri
245 Brett Smith QB Wyoming
246 Marion Grice RB Arizona State
247 Austin Wentworth OG Fresno State
248 Bruce Gaston DT Purdue
249 Allen Hurns WR Miami
250 Denicos Allen OLB Michigan State
251 Terrance Fede DE Marist
252 Nikita Whitlock FB Wake Forest
253 LaDarius Perkins RB Mississippi State
254 Tevin Reese WR Baylor
255 Lorenzo Taliaffero RB Coastal Carolina
256 Ted Bolser TE Indiana
nvm.
[ Edited by AB81Rules on May 10, 2014 at 6:09 PM ]
Originally posted by GEEK:
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Preliminary calculations are in...

Minimum goal to meet: 80% or higher on number of players predicted to be selected.
Players correctly projected to be drafted: 207 out of 256
Overall collective selection accuracy: 81%

Not a failure, but I feel I could've done much better. Very tough with such a deep draft. I expect MadDog will post his numbers soon. We'll see who the Draft King is this year.

That's damn good in my opinion - look at the run on WRs, early run on CBs, lack of RBs within the first 50 picks, disparity in QBs, etc.

When you factor all that in, along with insider info in terms of medical and off-field issues, 81% is DAMN good.

Congrats OTC - that's true zone cred right there that verifies your evaluation skills.

Originally posted by buck:
Your big board is useful. It challenges my perceptions and makes me reconsider my evaluations.

Thank you for the board and the time and energy that you spend putting it together.



I appreciate all the kind words, friends.

Man, was this fun. Will I do it all again next year? Probably.
Good job Nick.

I went 187 for 256. Not bad I guess. Those late round guys got me.
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Preliminary calculations are in...

Minimum goal to meet: 80% or higher on number of players predicted to be selected.
Players correctly projected to be drafted: 207 out of 256
Overall collective selection accuracy: 81%

Not a failure, but I feel I could've done much better. Very tough with such a deep draft. I expect MadDog will post his numbers soon. We'll see who the Draft King is this year.

I have you at 206/256 and CBS at 202/256 from putting everything in an excel spreadsheet. I double checked the players wrong on both CBS and your board by looking at the best available players by position to confirm that the player was not drafted. If they didn't show up there, I did a quick Google search to see if there was news of them being drafted.

These are the 50 players you had that didn't get drafted:
Overall Player Position School
76 Antonio Richardson OT Tennessee
78 Kelcy Quarles DT South Carolina
102 Marcus Roberson CB Florida
104 Anthony Johnson DT LSU
107 Shane Skov ILB Stanford
111 Rashaad Reynolds CB Oregon State
112 Jackson Jeffcoat DE/OLB Texas
118 Dion Bailey S USC
127 Christian Jones LB Florida State
131 Carlos Fields LB Winston-Salem
133 Craig Loston SS LSU
138 James Hurst OT North Carolina
141 Chris Davis CB Auburn
142 James Gayle DE/OLB Virginia Tech
145 Gabe Ikard C Oklahoma
149 Jake Murphy TE Utah
154 Adrian Hubbard DE/OLB Alabama
158 Anthony Steen OG Alabama
163 AC Leonard TE Tennessee State
168 Brandon Coleman WR Rutgers
170 Brock Coyle ILB Montana
171 Howard Jones OLB Shepherd
176 Blake Annen TE Cincinnati
177 Josh Mauro DE Stanford
178 Ethan Westbrooks DE/OLB West Texas A&M
179 Matt Patchan OT Boston College
183 Zack Kerr NT Delaware
184 George Uko DE USC
186 DeAndre Coleman DE Cal
200 Marcel Jensen TE Fresno State
203 Isaiah Crowell RB Alabama State
209 Max Bullough ILB Michigan State
214 Tyler Larsen C Utah State
219 Rajion Neal RB Tennessee
220 Albert Wilson WR Georgia State
222 Tenny Pelepoi DT Utah
225 Torrence Allen WR West Texas A&M
229 Kenny Ladler S Vanderbilt
233 Colt Lyerla TE Oregon
235 Tim Cornett RB UNLV
236 Derrell Johnson OLB East Carolina
241 L'Damian Washington WR Missouri
243 Gator Hoskins FB/TE Marshall
245 Brett Smith QB Wyoming
247 Austin Wentworth OG Fresno State
248 Bruce Gaston DT Purdue
249 Allen Hurns WR Miami
250 Denicos Allen OLB Michigan State
252 Nikita Whitlock FB Wake Forest
253 LaDarius Perkins RB Mississippi State

I'd say beating CBS is a good sign, but if a lot of people create big boards, it's expected that some will beat the CBS board. How does 80% compare to how you and MadDog normally perform? This year looked harder than some past years with how deep the draft was.
MD got 203/256.

The 53 he missed:

77 Antonio Richardson OT Tennessee
92 Jackson Jeffcoat DE Texas
108 Brandon Coleman WR Rutgers
110 Kelcy Quarles DT South Carolina
122 Christian Jones LB Florida State
123 Rashaad Reynolds S Oregon St
126 Dion Bailey S USC
134 Marcus Roberson CB Florida
138 Adrian Hubbard OLB Alabama
140 James Gayle DE/OLB Virginia Tech
142 Chris Davis CB Auburn
145 Craig Loston S LSU
152 Brock Croyle LB Montana
153 Gabe Ikard C Oklahoma
156 James Hurst OT North Carolina
161 Anthony Johnson DT LSU
167 Jake Murphy TE Utah
174 Howard Jones DE/OLB Shepard
175 Anthony Steen G Alabama
178 AC Leonard TE Tennessee St
180 Josh Mauro DE Stanford
181 Chandler Jones WR San Jose St
184 Blake Annen TE Cincinnati
186 Ethan Westbrooks DE West Texas A&M
187 Mike Davis WR Texas
189 Deandre Coleman DT California
190 Max Bullough LB Michigan St
195 Zach Kerr DT Delaware
197 Tyler Larsen C Utah St
200 Carlos Fields LB Winston Salem
203 Connor Shaw QB South Carolina
204 Isaiah Crowell RB Alabama St
209 Kirby Van der Kamp P Iowa St
210 George Uko DT USC
214 Terrance Cobb RB Cumberland
216 Damian Williams RB Oklahoma
217 Dexter McDougal CB Maryland
220 James Stone C Tennessee
221 Matthew Patchan OT Boston College
222 Brian Clarke G Bloomsberg
223 Denicos Allen LB Michigan St
224 Sammy Seamster CB Middle Tennessee St
231 Morgan Breslin DE/OLB USC
237 Ty Zimmerman S Kansas St
238 JC Copeland FB LSU
242 Senorise Perry RB Louisville
245 Derrell Johnson LB East Carolina
246 Alden Darby S Arizona St
249 Nikita Whitlock NT/FB/LB Wake Forest
251 Kenny Ladler S Vanderbilt
252 Keon Lyn CB Syracuse
254 Lawrence Virgil DT Valdosta St
256 Rajion Neal RB Tennessee
[ Edited by eastcoast49ersfan on May 10, 2014 at 7:48 PM ]
For fun, I considered every player that was not picked the 300th selection (300 was arbitrary, but I didn't think it was fair to consider them all 257). Then I looked at how far off each projection was on MD and OTC's big board and added the sums for every pick. MD came out ahead being off 13132 places (an average of 51.3 per pick). OTC was off 13527 places (an average of 52.8 per pick). CBS came in between them being off 13296 places (an average of 51.9 per pick).
OTC reigns as king!!!!!

You got me this year. I relinquish my crown for 2014. I had 52 misses. Thanks to East Coast for doing the heavy lifting and providing a perfect list, minus McDougle, who went early.

I was rolling in great turf matching up with previous years. Sam and Henderson got me late and kicked me out. I AM NOT BITTER!!!!!!!

For those who attempt to make a 256 Board, under 50 misses is the Holy Grail. It is nearly impossible. Missing 52 is an outstanding number. Haven't really gone through the paid experts, but it is most common to see between 56-76 misses. I'd be shocked to see anyone beat OTC in any Big Board. Anything just above 50 is a major, major achievement.

Congrats again my friend. I'll be gunning for your crown in 363 days.
Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
For fun, I considered every player that was not picked the 300th selection (300 was arbitrary, but I didn't think it was fair to consider them all 257). Then I looked at how far off each projection was on MD and OTC's big board and added the sums for every pick. MD came out ahead being off 13132 places (an average of 51.3 per pick). OTC was off 13527 places (an average of 52.8 per pick). CBS came in between them being off 13296 places (an average of 51.9 per pick).

Will you do my taxes? Check in the mail. Thanks.
54 off for CBS is a marked improvement. They usually are 65+.