There are 139 users in the forums

Remember
Not a member? Register Now!

Would the 49ers trade down?

  • fryet
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 2,864
It seems like conventional wisdom right now is that the 49ers must trade up, as there is a good chance that the 1st round talent for WR and CB will be chosen before they pick at #30. However, trading up requires a partner, and there is no guarantee that the 49ers will have a good option for trading up. So if they end up staying at 30, they have the option of taking BPA at an area that is not a need, or trading the pick. They don't really need more picks, so they could afford to possibly trade #30 for a first round pick next year (which also depends on finding a trade partner), and then draft for players that they need with the other 5 top 100 picks that they possess.

So what would you do at #30 if there was not a good option available at CB/WR?
1. Overdraft the next best CB/WR
2. Draft BPA
3. Draft BPA or take a next year 1st round pick if offered
4. Trade down to acquire additional picks in this year's draft
If it is a choice definitely option 3.
[ Edited by ChipDouglas510 on May 5, 2014 at 1:22 PM ]
Originally posted by fryet:
It seems like conventional wisdom right now is that the 49ers must trade up, as there is a good chance that the 1st round talent for WR and CB will be chosen before they pick at #30. However, trading up requires a partner, and there is no guarantee that the 49ers will have a good option for trading up. So if they end up staying at 30, they have the option of taking BPA at an area that is not a need, or trading the pick. They don't really need more picks, so they could afford to possibly trade #30 for a first round pick next year (which also depends on finding a trade partner), and then draft for players that they need with the other 5 top 100 picks that they possess.

So what would you do at #30 if there was not a good option available at CB/WR?
1. Overdraft the next best CB/WR
2. Draft BPA
3. Draft BPA or take a next year 1st round pick if offered
4. Trade down to acquire additional picks in this year's draft

So they would trade their 1st rounder this year for a 1st rounder......next year? How on Earth does that make any sense?
With the Niners sitting at #30, waiting to draft, there will be more options presented to them to trade up than to trade down. That's just simple/obvious logic.

With 29 picks before them, there will without a doubt be an opportunity to trade up unless some craziness happens and every single team in front of them says "No deal."

Someone will bite.
Originally posted by NickSh49:
With the Niners sitting at #30, waiting to draft, there will be more options presented to them to trade up than to trade down. That's just simple/obvious logic.

With 29 picks before them, there will without a doubt be an opportunity to trade up unless some craziness happens and every single team in front of them says "No deal."

Someone will bite.

There's quite a few teams sitting around looking to trade down specifically because they'd like to add some more picks. Baltimore is one of those.
  • fryet
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 2,864
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Originally posted by fryet:
It seems like conventional wisdom right now is that the 49ers must trade up, as there is a good chance that the 1st round talent for WR and CB will be chosen before they pick at #30. However, trading up requires a partner, and there is no guarantee that the 49ers will have a good option for trading up. So if they end up staying at 30, they have the option of taking BPA at an area that is not a need, or trading the pick. They don't really need more picks, so they could afford to possibly trade #30 for a first round pick next year (which also depends on finding a trade partner), and then draft for players that they need with the other 5 top 100 picks that they possess.

So what would you do at #30 if there was not a good option available at CB/WR?
1. Overdraft the next best CB/WR
2. Draft BPA
3. Draft BPA or take a next year 1st round pick if offered
4. Trade down to acquire additional picks in this year's draft

So they would trade their 1st rounder this year for a 1st rounder......next year? How on Earth does that make any sense?
Here are the advantages:
1. Chances are, the pick will be higher than #30 next year from the other team.
2. We can't sign all of our draft picks this year, so having more picks next year (where we may have more openings) is a better situation. 13 picks this year, and 7 picks next year is not as good as 10 picks this year, and 10 picks next year.
3. At pick #30 we know that a need player is not available. Next year that may not be true.
Member Milestone: This is post number 600 for OldJoe.
Originally posted by fryet:
Here are the advantages:
1. Chances are, the pick will be higher than #30 next year from the other team.
2. We can't sign all of our draft picks this year, so having more picks next year (where we may have more openings) is a better situation. 13 picks this year, and 7 picks next year is not as good as 10 picks this year, and 10 picks next year.
3. At pick #30 we know that a need player is not available. Next year that may not be true.

I suppose I might trade with Jags/Browns/Raiders, pretty sure they will supply a nice low pick, but with so many (ie Texans/Falcons )... quite a gamble.

Trading up always presumes you can get a "can't miss" for two or more iffys. But I am not sold on anyones "can't miss" (even Baalke's - who is a very good evaluator).

Normally, I would always prefer trade downs and don't care about the big names.

But having said that, this is a uniquely deep draft, with the presumption of so many wanting to trade back, one might find a relatively good deal in moving up (relative to other years). Might be worth Baalke moving up a few to get his guy he isn't sure will fall to us.
[ Edited by OldJoe on May 5, 2014 at 2:53 PM ]
Originally posted by fryet:
Here are the advantages:
1. Chances are, the pick will be higher than #30 next year from the other team.
2. We can't sign all of our draft picks this year, so having more picks next year (where we may have more openings) is a better situation. 13 picks this year, and 7 picks next year is not as good as 10 picks this year, and 10 picks next year.
3. At pick #30 we know that a need player is not available. Next year that may not be true.

The 49ers need help now not next year. If there is any pick they should keep, it is their 1st rounder, they need to keep adding to the team to try to get them over the top. If you trade pick #30 this year only to trade it to a team who surprisingly ends up making the playoffs, you've just sacrificed a whole year of player development to move up a handful of spots. That doesn't make much sense to me.
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
So they would trade their 1st rounder this year for a 1st rounder......next year? How on Earth does that make any sense?

Is this a serious question?

Trading our first for a first round pick next year on a bad team could be a really good deal for us. A top 10 pick next year is worth much more than the 30th pick this year even though this draft class is pretty strong. Worst case, a team over-performs and we end up with a similar player next season which isn't the end of the world given our limited roster spots. Best case, we get a top 5 pick which can be used to draft a much better player or turned into more high picks next season. If we don't like anyone on the board, trading the pick to a mediocre or poor team makes a lot of sense. Even if we do like a player remaining, if a team like the Raiders proposes this trade, that would be tough to turn down, but I don't think they would ever propose it.
Having two firsts next year could be far better than drafting a WR in first this year, as there are a few WRs that could come out next year that look outstanding at this stage. And we'd know for sure then if Crabtree was gone or staying. And whether Boldin and Lloyd hang around, and how Patton comes on.



Even top RBs are projected to go first round next year, which could be a need if Lattimore doesn't work out.



I still think we should use this year's picks, where they are, if not trading up, but if you get offered a great deal for a 2015 pick we should take it.



Trading up this year depends on the price and how keen we are to move up. And trading down could happen depending on offer. Don't rule anything out is how I see havinhg 30th pick.
I'd trade back a few spots to pick up a one next year and a two this year. Three 2nd rounders and three 3rd rounders would work for me. That's some stout ammo to move around; up and down.
Originally posted by BadgerHawk:
I'd trade back a few spots to pick up a one next year and a two this year. Three 2nd rounders and three 3rd rounders would work for me. That's some stout ammo to move around; up and down.

I'm sure other teams are dying to give up a first next year to move up a few picks this year. Especially when the teams picking early in the second will probably have mid-high first round picks next year which are worth as much or more than our first round pick this year.