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Jacksonvilles #39-#40???

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
Originally posted by MC9BEAT:
It is possible we could trade back 4-5 slots and gain an early 3rd rd pick. We could then take both our early 3rd round picks and trade them for a mid 2nd round pick 40-45. That would leave us with four 2nd round picks. If we trade back with the depth of this draft we would probably be better off drafting three 2nd rd picks and then having four 3rd rd picks including 2 early ones. That would give us 7 premium draft picks in a very deep draft plus our 4th and 5th rounders and the three 7th rd picks.

No offense, but you seem to propose the most unrealistic and one-sided trades out of everyone on here. At best, we could probably get 40 and 72 from the Vikings for 30 if a good QB was available, but that trade favors us so I think we would have to throw in our late 4th round pick. No one is going to give up an early third round pick to move up 4-5 spots. Last season, we gave up the 74th pick to move from 31 to 18. We could still end up with 4 2nd round picks if we traded pick 72 and 77 which may make sense if we are able to get Tuitt or Moncrief at 40 or in the mid-2nd round from trading our 3rd round picks.

Yes I am so unrealistic. Guess again. On average moving up in the 1st round 4-7 slots usually costs about a 3rd round pick and 8-10 slots a 2nd rd pick. The exception is moving up in to the top ten which can cost even more. Yes, last year we moved up 13 slots for a 3rd but that was because Baalke made the senile Jerry Jones his little biatch. Check the draft value charts, we got away with murder.

This year we own pick #77 in the 3rd round. We got it by trading back 6 slots in the 2nd round last year. Had we been trading back out of the 1st round we could have asked for more. Teams move up because there is a player they covet that they think will be gone when their pick comes up. If a team drafting 4 or 5 slots after us wants a player they think will be gone it is very possible that they would offer us a 3rd round pick to move up and get him. It depends on the position of the player and how deep that position is. If they are thinking short term they may offer us a 2nd next year instead of a 3rd this year hoping they will be drafting later next year anyway. It just depends on the team, who they want and how badly they want him.
Originally posted by English:
Only here.

The only place there is.
A future 3rd round pick is not equivalent to a current 3rd round pick and that was still a really good trade for us. Pick 34 landed us pick 40 and a future 3rd and somehow you think that means we can get pick 34-35 and a high current 3rd round pick for pick 30. There is some benefit to getting a player in the first round (5th year option for rookie contracts), but not enough that we can potentially land those picks. Getting 40 and 72 for 30 would be getting away with murder again and you're suggesting we can do quite a bit better than that. Trading up 4-5 spots early in the 2nd round typically costs a 4th round pick.

I'm a big fan of trading back into the 2nd round and acquiring a 3rd or future 2nd/3rd and would be thrilled if we could somehow get the 2nd and 3rd round picks from the Redskins or Browns, but I wouldn't predict anything better than that because even the 49ers don't get away with murder like that very often. If you look at the draft value charts, this trade is much more one-sided than the Cowboys trade. Granted, teams use different value systems, but in a deep draft, I would expect teams to value their 3rd round picks more than normal so if anything, we are winning these trades even more. Moving back 4/5 picks also doesn't make sense because the Browns have a late first round pick they can use to draft a QB and the Redskins have RG3 but that's another story.

49ers trade up with Cowboys
31 (600) and 74 (220) for 18 (900).

49ers trade back with Redskins, Browns, Vikings
34 (560) and 64 (260) for 30 (620).
35 (550) and 71 (235) for 30 (620).
40 (500) and 72 (230) for 30 (620).

The Vikings trade is still unrealistic but not as bad as the others.

I'm working on a mock draft where we trade back to 40 and also trade up into the early second because most of my draft crush prospects are projected early in the second round (Moncrief, Tuitt, whichever CB is the 5th taken between Roby, Verrett, Fuller, Dennard).
  • LVJay
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 9,790
They need a little more help on offense than defense so, maybe they would consider our 2nd rd (#61) packaged with LMJ and Jonathan Baldwin ... if not the Jags, then maybe Raiders, Titans, Steelers, or some other team might bite it.... hopefully, it works.

Maybe then, we could trade two 3rds (#77 and #94) to get back in the 2nd rd... giving us three 2nd rd picks (with one being early).

4th, 5th and the 7th rounders could be traded for next yrs draft OR try to get back in the 3rd to give us one more 3rd rd pick (if we can find a team willing to do so)....

We can end up with #30 in the 1st, three 2nd rounders and two 3rds... not really sure if we can keep more than 6 on the roster, anyhow. There's always gonna be gems that go undrafted, plus there will be a lot of cuts from many teams before the season starts...

1. First round – No. 30 overall
2. Second round – No. 56 overall (from the Kansas City Chiefs)
3. Second round – No. 61 overall
4. Third round – No. 77 overall (from the Tennessee Titans)
5. Third round – No. 94 overall
6. Third round – No. 100 overall (compensatory)
7. Fourth round – No. 129 overall
8. Fifth round - No. 170 overall
9. Seventh round – No. 242 overall (from the New Orleans Saints)
10. Seventh round – No. 243 overall (from the Carolina Panthers)
11. Seventh round – No. 245 overall
Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
A future 3rd round pick is not equivalent to a current 3rd round pick and that was still a really good trade for us. Pick 34 landed us pick 40 and a future 3rd and somehow you think that means we can get pick 34-35 and a high current 3rd round pick for pick 30. There is some benefit to getting a player in the first round (5th year option for rookie contracts), but not enough that we can potentially land those picks. Getting 40 and 72 for 30 would be getting away with murder again and you're suggesting we can do quite a bit better than that. Trading up 4-5 spots early in the 2nd round typically costs a 4th round pick.

I'm a big fan of trading back into the 2nd round and acquiring a 3rd or future 2nd/3rd and would be thrilled if we could somehow get the 2nd and 3rd round picks from the Redskins or Browns, but I wouldn't predict anything better than that because even the 49ers don't get away with murder like that very often. If you look at the draft value charts, this trade is much more one-sided than the Cowboys trade. Granted, teams use different value systems, but in a deep draft, I would expect teams to value their 3rd round picks more than normal so if anything, we are winning these trades even more. Moving back 4/5 picks also doesn't make sense because the Browns have a late first round pick they can use to draft a QB and the Redskins have RG3 but that's another story.

49ers trade up with Cowboys
31 (600) and 74 (220) for 18 (900).

49ers trade back with Redskins, Browns, Vikings
34 (560) and 64 (260) for 30 (620).
35 (550) and 71 (235) for 30 (620).
40 (500) and 72 (230) for 30 (620).

The Vikings trade is still unrealistic but not as bad as the others.

I'm working on a mock draft where we trade back to 40 and also trade up into the early second because most of my draft crush prospects are projected early in the second round (Moncrief, Tuitt, whichever CB is the 5th taken between Roby, Verrett, Fuller, Dennard).

Actually if you read my post the 1st 3 words were " It is Possible". Not probable, likely or guaranteed. It is possible we could get a 3rd round pick to move back from rd one 4-5 slots and get a 3rd rd pick. It depends on who is still on the board. A move back of 10 slots should garner at least a 3rd round pick.

Baalke's 1st 3 trades last year

Move up 13 slots in rd 1 for a 3rd: Big time in our favor
Trade back 6 slots in rd 2 and get a 3rd rd pick: Also big in our favor
Trade up 5 slots in rd 2 and pay a 6th rd pick: Also big in our favor

Baalke moves up and down but he tends to get the better of the deal, gets more to move back and pays less to move up.

I can't imagine he would move back from #30 and get less than a 3rd rd pick. Especially a big move like 10 slots. Especially when we are loaded and don't really need an extra 4th. Maybe a couple of slots for less but 4-5 or more and you start risking the player you want going off the board. He would demand more or stay put at #30 is my guess.
Originally posted by RishikeshA:
The more I think of the 49ers draft positioning the more it is a win-win situation. If there is a run on quarterbacks in the first round there will be some pretty good players falling to us at the end of round one. On the other hand, if teams wait to take a QB late first or second round the 49ers will be able to trade and get more 2nd and 3rd round picks this year or some futures for 2015. With the right moves Baalke could enhance his value as a GM in the league. If he doesn't connect, his stay in SF will be in question.

  • If there is a shred of truth about butting heads with Harbaugh. Baalke cannot risk a bad move and losing stature in a "battle of the Alpha-Dogs".
  • What Baalke cannot afford to let occur, is picking a first round WR and have him become AJ #2. That would be devastating to his reputation and his own NFL stature. Furthermore no reason for it. A trade back, or taking a WR with our round #2 pick, would get you closely the same thing and also get a top-5 CB with first pick.
  • Baalke is about value. Trading back is almost always more value, due to a team cashing in on chasing a draft crush.
  • Having said that, the majority of NFL teams see this year as deep talent draft and therefore more will want to trade back. If Front Office does have a draft crush, this year trading up might not be "bad value" in doing so, but I would be money we don't move up in round #1 for a WR.
Originally posted by LVJay:
They need a little more help on offense than defense so, maybe they would consider our 2nd rd (#61) packaged with LMJ and Jonathan Baldwin ... if not the Jags, then maybe Raiders, Titans, Steelers, or some other team might bite it.... hopefully, it works.

Maybe then, we could trade two 3rds (#77 and #94) to get back in the 2nd rd... giving us three 2nd rd picks (with one being early).

4th, 5th and the 7th rounders could be traded for next yrs draft OR try to get back in the 3rd to give us one more 3rd rd pick (if we can find a team willing to do so)....

We can end up with #30 in the 1st, three 2nd rounders and two 3rds... not really sure if we can keep more than 6 on the roster, anyhow. There's always gonna be gems that go undrafted, plus there will be a lot of cuts from many teams before the season starts...

1. First round – No. 30 overall
2. Second round – No. 56 overall (from the Kansas City Chiefs)
3. Second round – No. 61 overall
4. Third round – No. 77 overall (from the Tennessee Titans)
5. Third round – No. 94 overall
6. Third round – No. 100 overall (compensatory)
7. Fourth round – No. 129 overall
8. Fifth round - No. 170 overall
9. Seventh round – No. 242 overall (from the New Orleans Saints)
10. Seventh round – No. 243 overall (from the Carolina Panthers)
11. Seventh round – No. 245 overall

This would be ideal for us. To make it better, we could trade down from #30 and possibly gain another 3rd rounder.
However you slice it the 49ers are loaded in a very deep draft class. This should be one of the all time great Niner draft classes. Let's hope the scouts,coaches and GM hit on the picks.
  • LVJay
  • Veteran
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Originally posted by CWin4949:
This would be ideal for us. To make it better, we could trade down from #30 and possibly gain another 3rd rounder.

Yeah, trading down to get an extra 2nd/3rd is cool, but who knows what HarBaalke has up their sleeves (unpredictable). They can stay (don't deal at all), trade up or down... it's all to our advantage--the benefits of multiple draft picks / good GM.