49ers Draft Prediction- TWO picks in Rnd 1, WR then CB (updated w/ ESPN, SFC, CSN)

Originally posted by LottOfDefense:

They would have to trade both 2nd round picks for another 1st. While having 2 1st round picks is nice since you get the 5th year of a contract, I think they might stay pat at #30 or a marginal trade up in the 1st and than may be make a move in the 2nd, similar to the trade up for Kap. Hopefully it won't cost more than a 3rd.

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by NickSh49:
Mostly to Giedi...

First off, Lloyd is insurance. That's it. He's there in case someone gets injured.

Think that's wrong? During every season of the Harbaugh era, the WR position has been decimated by injuries. In 2011, we lost everyone except Crabtree, which brought the likes of Brett Swain to a starting position. In 2012, Manningham & Kyle Williams both went down, leaving Crabs, Moss, & Ginn as the only starters. In 2013, Manningham was still hurt and Crabtree & Patton went down for half the season.

See a trend there? You have to look at this team and think of it without Lloyd AND Anquan Boldin. Lloyd is a insurance... he won't be here long and the 49ers would rather move forward without having to rely on him period. Meanwhile, Boldin has only got probably two years left. And Patton is a project that may or may not work out.

So assuming Boldin is done in two years, why would you wait until Round 2 or 3 to draft your next starter at the WR position? Why wouldn't you move up in Round 1 (since they have the picks to do it and nearly a full roster) and take a guy that will without a doubt start on this team for the next 5-8 years?

That's what i'm talking about. Even if Patton works out, he could be the #3. Crabs & a guy like Evans or Beckham, Jr. would be your #1 & #2.

And I counter your "drafting WR" argument with the fact that the 49ers have not taken a CB in the draft in the first two rounds cine Shawntae Spencer in 2004. That logic goes both ways. And while I agree with you that the 49ers win games with defense, the WR position has been a problem with this team dating back to the Erickson-era. Yeah, they got Crabs, but haven't found anyone consistent to play opposite of him. I think they'll move up for that guy come draft day.

Like I said, if they move up to get Evans I certainly wouldn't mind.

Having said that, really this offense doesn't need a Mike Evans. First of all, he's not the burner I think Harbaugh and Baalke are looking for. They already have two ball control possession receivers in Anquan and Crabs, Evans might not see much action considering he's built more along the lines of Anquan and Crabs. I think they are looking more for speed, a la Cooks or maybe some of the other burners. Like you said the draft is deep in the 2nd and 3rd rounds - and a 2nd or 3rd rounder this year is a probably first or second next year. So while I like a guy like Evans, I think they go cornerback because it solidifies the defense so much more and cures a possible problem with Cully and his legal problems. They have been bringing in *old* receivers like Moss and Braylon and they have made the team. I think you and I agree that Harbaugh values the defense a lot, and the loss of Whitner and Brown really forces them to go the Eric Reid route and get a cornerback with that first pick. Because this draft is deep in WR's, I believe they can use lower round picks on WR's this year, which will be the equivalent of a higher round pick next year.

So WR is definitely happening in Round 1, and I think they could very well move back into Round 1 to get a CB as well. But it wouldn't surprise me if they wait to move up in Round 2 to get their CB of choice instead.

Originally posted by OldJoe:

So WR is definitely happening in Round 1, and I think they could very well move back into Round 1 to get a CB as well. But it wouldn't surprise me if they wait to move up in Round 2 to get their CB of choice instead.

There is no way or reason for Baalke to take another WR in round 1 (AJ). If Baalke attempted this and missed. He would never hear the end of it and would change the balance in the Harbaugh/Baalke scale. He won't risk a round 1 WR.

So I suspect CB round 1 or trade DOWN.

On the contrary. I think AJ is the reason getting that stud-WR is more of a priority. You really want the 49ers to wait until the second round for a WR? You really want them to test that second round talent pool when the bonafide franchise receivers are sitting there in the first? The Niners have the ammo to do this now. They need to invest for the future now. They'll move up in the first to take a WR, then either move back into the first for a CB or trade up in the second for a CB.

Originally posted by NickSh49:
Someone brought this up earlier. I think missing on AJ, who was taken at the back-end of Round 1 anyway, is even more reason for them to take a WR earlier in Round 1. You don't draft scared.

Here's what I wrote. Lots of arguments throughout the thread as well.

On the contrary. I think AJ is the reason getting that stud-WR is more of a priority. You really want the 49ers to wait until the second round for a WR? You really want them to test that second round talent pool when the bonafide franchise receivers are sitting there in the first? The Niners have the ammo to do this now. They need to invest for the future now. They'll move up in the first to take a WR, then either move back into the first for a CB or trade up in the second for a CB.

Originally posted by sanjo49er:
Any body think 49ers take a Qb in the draft?? its a deep class.

Originally posted by MC9BEAT:

Originally posted by NickSh49:

Originally posted by MC9BEAT:

Originally posted by NickSh49:

Originally posted by Negrodamus:
Didn't know Scott McLaughlin was back as the GM

Baalke was responsible for the 2010 draft.

Regardless, what's the point of waiting? The 49ers need starters, not depth. They barely need 7 new players, let alone 11.

The Niners will take the stud-players they want unless they can't find a trade partner. Two guys in the first round. Bet on it.

Map out the trade for us. How do the 49ers get to #14 for a WR and then back in the 1st round again mid 20's to get a CB.

Possibly a 2nd and 4th rd pick to move up to #14 from the 30th pick?

Then our other 2nd rd pick plus two 3rd round picks to get back in to rd 1?

We would go from 7 picks in the 1st 4 rounds of a very deep draft to having only 3. ( Two 1st's and a 3rd)

We could probably get a good CB in round 1 staying put. Maybe need a 5th rd pick to move up a couple of slots.

We could then have the rest of our draft to get WR's and there are some very good ones available. In essence we would be spending both 2nd rd picks and two 3rd rd picks and a 4th rd pick to get WR Evans. Sounds a bit costly. Do you envision a cheaper way? You didn't lay out how we would trade up.

All good points.

First off, as stated, I think the 49ers could stay put at #30 and take a CB without moving up, so there's that.

But regarding taking a WR between picks #10-20 (like Mike Evans), I believe the 49ers could very well give up their first round pick in 2015 and get the guy they REALLY want towards the top of the draft this May.

Again, I think the 49ers want two top-tier starters going into this season at both CB & WR, and I think they will look for both in the first round. At WR, they want true insurance in case of any injuries to Crabs or Boldin as well as a guy that they believe can be a franchise player for them at the position for the next 5-8 years.

So why the first round? Because WR's taken in the second round of the draft don't tend to be GREAT. They tend to be GOOD players, but not great... and I think Baalke knows this. It's similar logic as to why he traded up to take Eric Reid.

Let's look at the second round of the 2012 NFL Draft... Brian Quick, Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffery, Ryan Broyles, Reuben Randle. I'll throw in T.Y. Hilton, a third-rounder, for good measure. So Jeffery & Hilton are your studs here, with Randle looking pretty decent as well. But besides those guys, no one taken after them has shown any promise to be a multi-year starter in the league (Sanu, Brazil, & Matthews have shown flashes).

Let's look at the second round in 2011... Titus Young, Torrey Smith, Greg Little, & Randall Cobb. So you have 2.5 starters there (giving Young some credit before he started having mental problems). After that, you'd have a hard time finding anyone good. Vincent Brown & Cecil Shorts are the only guys taken after them who have done anything.

2010... Arrelious Benn & Golden Tate in the second round. Notable talent after... Brandon LaFell, Emmanuel Sanders, Eric Decker, Andre Roberts, Mike Williams, & Riley Cooper. This was a better year for receiver, obviously.

2009... Brian Robiskie & Mohamed Massoquoi. In later rounds, Mike Wallace, Austin Collie, Johnny Knox, & Julian Edleman.


The counter-argument to this is that first-round guys bust just as often, but I believe there is a major gap in talent between a first and second-round receiver.

2012... Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, & AJ Jenkins. Blackmon has issues and Jenkins was seen as a bad pick even on draft day, but the other two guys are playing very well.

2011... A.J. Green Julio Jones, & Jonathan Baldwin. 2 out of three franchise players.

2010... Demaryius Thomas & Dez Bryant. Franchise players.

2009... DHB, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, & Kenny Britt. So take away DHB and the injured/troubled Britt and you have three solid players (tho man... Nicks fell off huh).


My point is that I don't think the 49ers will gamble in the second round on a wide receiver. They want a stud that can start playing immediately without worry. In short, they'd rather have a Jeremy Maclin instead of an Arrelious Benn.

And as we've seen from this team, they believe they can find value at the CB position in later rounds.

So WR is definitely happening in Round 1, and I think they could very well move back into Round 1 to get a CB as well. But it wouldn't surprise me if they wait to move up in Round 2 to get their CB of choice instead.

More 1st rd players pan out than 2nd rd. More 2nd rd players pan out than 3rd rd. ect, ect.....
That doesn't mean there isn't talent available beyond the 1st round. Most experts say this is the deepest WR class in ages, maybe of all time. There are WR's you can get in round 2 that would have been 1st round picks in past drafts.

As for talent in past drafts Boldin was a 2nd rd pick. John Taylor was a 3rd rd pick. Terrel Owens a 3rd round pick. Dwight Clark a 10th rd pick.

Jerry Rice and Crabtree were 1st rd picks but so were JJ Stokes ( he cost us two 1st rounders), Rashaun Woods and AJ Jenkins. That's SIX 1st round picks we spent to get 2 great players 2 busts and a solid player since 1980.

By the same token since 1980 we spent SIX 3rd round picks at WR: Ron Lewis, John Taylor, Terrell Owens, Derrick Hamilton, Brandon Williams and Jason Hill. We also ended up with 2 great players, a solid type depth player and some busts. Almost the same exact results with six 3rd rounders as we got with six 1st rounders at a far cheaper draft cost. The 14th pick in rd 1 is worth aprox 1100 pts and the 14th pick in rd 3 is worth aprox 200 pts. That's 5 1/2 to 1. We could draft 5 1/2 receivers in rd 3 or 1 receiver in rd 1 per draft value.

It took Six 1st round picks to get Rice and Crabtree. The aprox cost of One 1st rounder to get Owens and Taylor.

We spent THREE 4th round picks and got Mike Barber, Brandon LLoyd and Quinton Patton. 2 pretty good WR's and 1 bust.

You want to stay at #30 and take a CB. Use our 1st rd pick next year and add what, our two 2nd rd picks this year or maybe a 2nd rounder and our pick #77 in the 3rd rd to move up for #14 and select Evans? What if we instead used our #56, #77 picks this year and next year's 1st rounder at WR instead of trading them to get 1 player. We would have 3 shots at drafting a great player instead of 1. We might even end up with more than 1 great player. Our picks this year could be Donte Moncreif and Cody Latimer and next year's 1st rounder the equivalent of say Jordan Mathews. I would rather have Moncreif, Latimer and Mathews than Evans.

Originally posted by Wisconsin49erfan:

Originally posted by MC9BEAT:

Originally posted by NickSh49:

Originally posted by MC9BEAT:

Originally posted by NickSh49:

Originally posted by Negrodamus:
Didn't know Scott McLaughlin was back as the GM

Baalke was responsible for the 2010 draft.

Regardless, what's the point of waiting? The 49ers need starters, not depth. They barely need 7 new players, let alone 11.

The Niners will take the stud-players they want unless they can't find a trade partner. Two guys in the first round. Bet on it.

Map out the trade for us. How do the 49ers get to #14 for a WR and then back in the 1st round again mid 20's to get a CB.

Possibly a 2nd and 4th rd pick to move up to #14 from the 30th pick?

Then our other 2nd rd pick plus two 3rd round picks to get back in to rd 1?

We would go from 7 picks in the 1st 4 rounds of a very deep draft to having only 3. ( Two 1st's and a 3rd)

We could probably get a good CB in round 1 staying put. Maybe need a 5th rd pick to move up a couple of slots.

We could then have the rest of our draft to get WR's and there are some very good ones available. In essence we would be spending both 2nd rd picks and two 3rd rd picks and a 4th rd pick to get WR Evans. Sounds a bit costly. Do you envision a cheaper way? You didn't lay out how we would trade up.

All good points.

First off, as stated, I think the 49ers could stay put at #30 and take a CB without moving up, so there's that.

But regarding taking a WR between picks #10-20 (like Mike Evans), I believe the 49ers could very well give up their first round pick in 2015 and get the guy they REALLY want towards the top of the draft this May.

Again, I think the 49ers want two top-tier starters going into this season at both CB & WR, and I think they will look for both in the first round. At WR, they want true insurance in case of any injuries to Crabs or Boldin as well as a guy that they believe can be a franchise player for them at the position for the next 5-8 years.

So why the first round? Because WR's taken in the second round of the draft don't tend to be GREAT. They tend to be GOOD players, but not great... and I think Baalke knows this. It's similar logic as to why he traded up to take Eric Reid.

Let's look at the second round of the 2012 NFL Draft... Brian Quick, Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffery, Ryan Broyles, Reuben Randle. I'll throw in T.Y. Hilton, a third-rounder, for good measure. So Jeffery & Hilton are your studs here, with Randle looking pretty decent as well. But besides those guys, no one taken after them has shown any promise to be a multi-year starter in the league (Sanu, Brazil, & Matthews have shown flashes).

Let's look at the second round in 2011... Titus Young, Torrey Smith, Greg Little, & Randall Cobb. So you have 2.5 starters there (giving Young some credit before he started having mental problems). After that, you'd have a hard time finding anyone good. Vincent Brown & Cecil Shorts are the only guys taken after them who have done anything.

2010... Arrelious Benn & Golden Tate in the second round. Notable talent after... Brandon LaFell, Emmanuel Sanders, Eric Decker, Andre Roberts, Mike Williams, & Riley Cooper. This was a better year for receiver, obviously.

2009... Brian Robiskie & Mohamed Massoquoi. In later rounds, Mike Wallace, Austin Collie, Johnny Knox, & Julian Edleman.


The counter-argument to this is that first-round guys bust just as often, but I believe there is a major gap in talent between a first and second-round receiver.

2012... Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, & AJ Jenkins. Blackmon has issues and Jenkins was seen as a bad pick even on draft day, but the other two guys are playing very well.

2011... A.J. Green Julio Jones, & Jonathan Baldwin. 2 out of three franchise players.

2010... Demaryius Thomas & Dez Bryant. Franchise players.

2009... DHB, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, & Kenny Britt. So take away DHB and the injured/troubled Britt and you have three solid players (tho man... Nicks fell off huh).


My point is that I don't think the 49ers will gamble in the second round on a wide receiver. They want a stud that can start playing immediately without worry. In short, they'd rather have a Jeremy Maclin instead of an Arrelious Benn.

And as we've seen from this team, they believe they can find value at the CB position in later rounds.

So WR is definitely happening in Round 1, and I think they could very well move back into Round 1 to get a CB as well. But it wouldn't surprise me if they wait to move up in Round 2 to get their CB of choice instead.

More 1st rd players pan out than 2nd rd. More 2nd rd players pan out than 3rd rd. ect, ect.....
That doesn't mean there isn't talent available beyond the 1st round. Most experts say this is the deepest WR class in ages, maybe of all time. There are WR's you can get in round 2 that would have been 1st round picks in past drafts.

As for talent in past drafts Boldin was a 2nd rd pick. John Taylor was a 3rd rd pick. Terrel Owens a 3rd round pick. Dwight Clark a 10th rd pick.

Jerry Rice and Crabtree were 1st rd picks but so were JJ Stokes ( he cost us two 1st rounders), Rashaun Woods and AJ Jenkins. That's SIX 1st round picks we spent to get 2 great players 2 busts and a solid player since 1980.

By the same token since 1980 we spent SIX 3rd round picks at WR: Ron Lewis, John Taylor, Terrell Owens, Derrick Hamilton, Brandon Williams and Jason Hill. We also ended up with 2 great players, a solid type depth player and some busts. Almost the same exact results with six 3rd rounders as we got with six 1st rounders at a far cheaper draft cost. The 14th pick in rd 1 is worth aprox 1100 pts and the 14th pick in rd 3 is worth aprox 200 pts. That's 5 1/2 to 1. We could draft 5 1/2 receivers in rd 3 or 1 receiver in rd 1 per draft value.

It took Six 1st round picks to get Rice and Crabtree. The aprox cost of One 1st rounder to get Owens and Taylor.

We spent THREE 4th round picks and got Mike Barber, Brandon LLoyd and Quinton Patton. 2 pretty good WR's and 1 bust.

You want to stay at #30 and take a CB. Use our 1st rd pick next year and add what, our two 2nd rd picks this year or maybe a 2nd rounder and our pick #77 in the 3rd rd to move up for #14 and select Evans? What if we instead used our #56, #77 picks this year and next year's 1st rounder at WR instead of trading them to get 1 player. We would have 3 shots at drafting a great player instead of 1. We might even end up with more than 1 great player. Our picks this year could be Donte Moncreif and Cody Latimer and next year's 1st rounder the equivalent of say Jordan Mathews. I would rather have Moncreif, Latimer and Mathews than Evans.

Sorry for the late response, but I don't believe the above point is true. We could see as many as 11 WR picks in the first two rounds, most of them gone in the first. If we just draft BPA, there might be only "projects" left at WR by the end of round two. Projects like........AJ Jenkins.

Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
If there's any moving to be made, I'd rather try to acquire more 2nd and 3rd round picks, where there will be some starting caliber players. We can also then begin trading picks to load up for the 2015 draft. The highest rated player that I want at this point is Jason Verrett and even he can possibly be had at 30, but if Baalke doesn't want to wait, I don't mind making a move to ensure we get a player to lock down the slot position. After that, I see no absolute NEED to have another first round pick.

Originally posted by steiber:

Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
If there's any moving to be made, I'd rather try to acquire more 2nd and 3rd round picks, where there will be some starting caliber players. We can also then begin trading picks to load up for the 2015 draft. The highest rated player that I want at this point is Jason Verrett and even he can possibly be had at 30, but if Baalke doesn't want to wait, I don't mind making a move to ensure we get a player to lock down the slot position. After that, I see no absolute NEED to have another first round pick.

Every year there is a team who wants to trade back into the first round for one more player. If there is not a player the team loves and sees as a year one impact player, I say trade it for a first next year.