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49ers Draft Prediction- TWO picks in Rnd 1, WR then CB (updated w/ ESPN, SFC, CSN)

You don't automatically get a starter in round one just because it is "round one". There are a ton of quality players and starters in the top 100. We can't give away those picks unless we really feel we have to.
Originally posted by NickSh49:
Originally posted by Negrodamus:
Didn't know Scott McLaughlin was back as the GM

Baalke was responsible for the 2010 draft.

Regardless, what's the point of waiting? The 49ers need starters, not depth. They barely need 7 new players, let alone 11.

The Niners will take the stud-players they want unless they can't find a trade partner. Two guys in the first round. Bet on it.

Map out the trade for us. How do the 49ers get to #14 for a WR and then back in the 1st round again mid 20's to get a CB.

Possibly a 2nd and 4th rd pick to move up to #14 from the 30th pick?

Then our other 2nd rd pick plus two 3rd round picks to get back in to rd 1?

We would go from 7 picks in the 1st 4 rounds of a very deep draft to having only 3. ( Two 1st's and a 3rd)

We could probably get a good CB in round 1 staying put. Maybe need a 5th rd pick to move up a couple of slots.

We could then have the rest of our draft to get WR's and there are some very good ones available. In essence we would be spending both 2nd rd picks and two 3rd rd picks and a 4th rd pick to get WR Evans. Sounds a bit costly. Do you envision a cheaper way? You didn't lay out how we would trade up.
Originally posted by MC9BEAT:
Originally posted by NickSh49:
Originally posted by Negrodamus:
Didn't know Scott McLaughlin was back as the GM

Baalke was responsible for the 2010 draft.

Regardless, what's the point of waiting? The 49ers need starters, not depth. They barely need 7 new players, let alone 11.

The Niners will take the stud-players they want unless they can't find a trade partner. Two guys in the first round. Bet on it.

Map out the trade for us. How do the 49ers get to #14 for a WR and then back in the 1st round again mid 20's to get a CB.

Possibly a 2nd and 4th rd pick to move up to #14 from the 30th pick?

Then our other 2nd rd pick plus two 3rd round picks to get back in to rd 1?

We would go from 7 picks in the 1st 4 rounds of a very deep draft to having only 3. ( Two 1st's and a 3rd)

We could probably get a good CB in round 1 staying put. Maybe need a 5th rd pick to move up a couple of slots.

We could then have the rest of our draft to get WR's and there are some very good ones available. In essence we would be spending both 2nd rd picks and two 3rd rd picks and a 4th rd pick to get WR Evans. Sounds a bit costly. Do you envision a cheaper way? You didn't lay out how we would trade up.

All good points.

First off, as stated, I think the 49ers could stay put at #30 and take a CB without moving up, so there's that.

But regarding taking a WR between picks #10-20 (like Mike Evans), I believe the 49ers could very well give up their first round pick in 2015 and get the guy they REALLY want towards the top of the draft this May.

Again, I think the 49ers want two top-tier starters going into this season at both CB & WR, and I think they will look for both in the first round. At WR, they want true insurance in case of any injuries to Crabs or Boldin as well as a guy that they believe can be a franchise player for them at the position for the next 5-8 years.

So why the first round? Because WR's taken in the second round of the draft don't tend to be GREAT. They tend to be GOOD players, but not great... and I think Baalke knows this. It's similar logic as to why he traded up to take Eric Reid.

Let's look at the second round of the 2012 NFL Draft... Brian Quick, Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffery, Ryan Broyles, Reuben Randle. I'll throw in T.Y. Hilton, a third-rounder, for good measure. So Jeffery & Hilton are your studs here, with Randle looking pretty decent as well. But besides those guys, no one taken after them has shown any promise to be a multi-year starter in the league (Sanu, Brazil, & Matthews have shown flashes).

Let's look at the second round in 2011... Titus Young, Torrey Smith, Greg Little, & Randall Cobb. So you have 2.5 starters there (giving Young some credit before he started having mental problems). After that, you'd have a hard time finding anyone good. Vincent Brown & Cecil Shorts are the only guys taken after them who have done anything.

2010... Arrelious Benn & Golden Tate in the second round. Notable talent after... Brandon LaFell, Emmanuel Sanders, Eric Decker, Andre Roberts, Mike Williams, & Riley Cooper. This was a better year for receiver, obviously.

2009... Brian Robiskie & Mohamed Massoquoi. In later rounds, Mike Wallace, Austin Collie, Johnny Knox, & Julian Edleman.


The counter-argument to this is that first-round guys bust just as often, but I believe there is a major gap in talent between a first and second-round receiver.

2012... Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, & AJ Jenkins. Blackmon has issues and Jenkins was seen as a bad pick even on draft day, but the other two guys are playing very well.

2011... A.J. Green Julio Jones, & Jonathan Baldwin. 2 out of three franchise players.

2010... Demaryius Thomas & Dez Bryant. Franchise players.

2009... DHB, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, & Kenny Britt. So take away DHB and the injured/troubled Britt and you have three solid players (tho man... Nicks fell off huh).


My point is that I don't think the 49ers will gamble in the second round on a wide receiver. They want a stud that can start playing immediately without worry. In short, they'd rather have a Jeremy Maclin instead of an Arrelious Benn.

And as we've seen from this team, they believe they can find value at the CB position in later rounds.

So WR is definitely happening in Round 1, and I think they could very well move back into Round 1 to get a CB as well. But it wouldn't surprise me if they wait to move up in Round 2 to get their CB of choice instead.
Originally posted by Harbaalke:
I expect trade up in 1st round and trade up in the 2nd round

This might be more accurate. WR, then CB tho.
Originally posted by NickSh49:
Originally posted by MC9BEAT:
Originally posted by NickSh49:
Originally posted by Negrodamus:
Didn't know Scott McLaughlin was back as the GM

Baalke was responsible for the 2010 draft.

Regardless, what's the point of waiting? The 49ers need starters, not depth. They barely need 7 new players, let alone 11.

The Niners will take the stud-players they want unless they can't find a trade partner. Two guys in the first round. Bet on it.

Map out the trade for us. How do the 49ers get to #14 for a WR and then back in the 1st round again mid 20's to get a CB.

Possibly a 2nd and 4th rd pick to move up to #14 from the 30th pick?

Then our other 2nd rd pick plus two 3rd round picks to get back in to rd 1?

We would go from 7 picks in the 1st 4 rounds of a very deep draft to having only 3. ( Two 1st's and a 3rd)

We could probably get a good CB in round 1 staying put. Maybe need a 5th rd pick to move up a couple of slots.

We could then have the rest of our draft to get WR's and there are some very good ones available. In essence we would be spending both 2nd rd picks and two 3rd rd picks and a 4th rd pick to get WR Evans. Sounds a bit costly. Do you envision a cheaper way? You didn't lay out how we would trade up.

All good points.

First off, as stated, I think the 49ers could stay put at #30 and take a CB without moving up, so there's that.

But regarding taking a WR between picks #10-20 (like Mike Evans), I believe the 49ers could very well give up their first round pick in 2015 and get the guy they REALLY want towards the top of the draft this May.

Again, I think the 49ers want two top-tier starters going into this season at both CB & WR, and I think they will look for both in the first round. At WR, they want true insurance in case of any injuries to Crabs or Boldin as well as a guy that they believe can be a franchise player for them at the position for the next 5-8 years.

So why the first round? Because WR's taken in the second round of the draft don't tend to be GREAT. They tend to be GOOD players, but not great... and I think Baalke knows this. It's similar logic as to why he traded up to take Eric Reid.

Let's look at the second round of the 2012 NFL Draft... Brian Quick, Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffery, Ryan Broyles, Reuben Randle. I'll throw in T.Y. Hilton, a third-rounder, for good measure. So Jeffery & Hilton are your studs here, with Randle looking pretty decent as well. But besides those guys, no one taken after them has shown any promise to be a multi-year starter in the league (Sanu, Brazil, & Matthews have shown flashes).

Let's look at the second round in 2011... Titus Young, Torrey Smith, Greg Little, & Randall Cobb. So you have 2.5 starters there (giving Young some credit before he started having mental problems). After that, you'd have a hard time finding anyone good. Vincent Brown & Cecil Shorts are the only guys taken after them who have done anything.

2010... Arrelious Benn & Golden Tate in the second round. Notable talent after... Brandon LaFell, Emmanuel Sanders, Eric Decker, Andre Roberts, Mike Williams, & Riley Cooper. This was a better year for receiver, obviously.

2009... Brian Robiskie & Mohamed Massoquoi. In later rounds, Mike Wallace, Austin Collie, Johnny Knox, & Julian Edleman.


The counter-argument to this is that first-round guys bust just as often, but I believe there is a major gap in talent between a first and second-round receiver.

2012... Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, & AJ Jenkins. Blackmon has issues and Jenkins was seen as a bad pick even on draft day, but the other two guys are playing very well.

2011... A.J. Green Julio Jones, & Jonathan Baldwin. 2 out of three franchise players.

2010... Demaryius Thomas & Dez Bryant. Franchise players.

2009... DHB, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, & Kenny Britt. So take away DHB and the injured/troubled Britt and you have three solid players (tho man... Nicks fell off huh).


My point is that I don't think the 49ers will gamble in the second round on a wide receiver. They want a stud that can start playing immediately without worry. In short, they'd rather have a Jeremy Maclin instead of an Arrelious Benn.

And as we've seen from this team, they believe they can find value at the CB position in later rounds.

So WR is definitely happening in Round 1, and I think they could very well move back into Round 1 to get a CB as well. But it wouldn't surprise me if they wait to move up in Round 2 to get their CB of choice instead.

More 1st rd players pan out than 2nd rd. More 2nd rd players pan out than 3rd rd. ect, ect.....
That doesn't mean there isn't talent available beyond the 1st round. Most experts say this is the deepest WR class in ages, maybe of all time. There are WR's you can get in round 2 that would have been 1st round picks in past drafts.

As for talent in past drafts Boldin was a 2nd rd pick. John Taylor was a 3rd rd pick. Terrel Owens a 3rd round pick. Dwight Clark a 10th rd pick.

Jerry Rice and Crabtree were 1st rd picks but so were JJ Stokes ( he cost us two 1st rounders), Rashaun Woods and AJ Jenkins. That's SIX 1st round picks we spent to get 2 great players 2 busts and a solid player since 1980.

By the same token since 1980 we spent SIX 3rd round picks at WR: Ron Lewis, John Taylor, Terrell Owens, Derrick Hamilton, Brandon Williams and Jason Hill. We also ended up with 2 great players, a solid type depth player and some busts. Almost the same exact results with six 3rd rounders as we got with six 1st rounders at a far cheaper draft cost. The 14th pick in rd 1 is worth aprox 1100 pts and the 14th pick in rd 3 is worth aprox 200 pts. That's 5 1/2 to 1. We could draft 5 1/2 receivers in rd 3 or 1 receiver in rd 1 per draft value.

It took Six 1st round picks to get Rice and Crabtree. The aprox cost of One 1st rounder to get Owens and Taylor.

We spent THREE 4th round picks and got Mike Barber, Brandon LLoyd and Quinton Patton. 2 pretty good WR's and 1 bust.

You want to stay at #30 and take a CB. Use our 1st rd pick next year and add what, our two 2nd rd picks this year or maybe a 2nd rounder and our pick #77 in the 3rd rd to move up for #14 and select Evans? What if we instead used our #56, #77 picks this year and next year's 1st rounder at WR instead of trading them to get 1 player. We would have 3 shots at drafting a great player instead of 1. We might even end up with more than 1 great player. Our picks this year could be Donte Moncreif and Cody Latimer and next year's 1st rounder the equivalent of say Jordan Mathews. I would rather have Moncreif, Latimer and Mathews than Evans.
  • GEEK
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 17,163
You definitely provide justification, but I don't agree with the premise that we will trade up again to acquire a 1st round pick in this year's draft.

Based on the pre-draft player visits, Baalke is targeting a speedy guy. We already have possession receivers - while I don't mind adding another talented receiver, I just don't see the need to trade up for one when this year's draft is deep at that position.

I definitely see a trade up in the mix for a Beckham OR Fuller, but I doubt we burn that many draft picks just to get two players. With the troubles of Culliver, Aldon Smith, the long-term uncertainly of Kaepernick (no contract news yet), Crabtree, Iupati, and the injury concerns of Lattimore and Bowman, we need to acquire players in the sweet spot of the draft - early second to late third.

Breadth over Depth in my opinion.
Good points from MC9 & GEEK.

Regardless of whether the 49ers trade up for a guy in the first (which I think they will, maybe just 4-5 spots if we're talking a minimum), I still think they go WR first and then CB in the second round, assuming there is only one first round pick.

Again, this team does not believe in spending high draft picks on corners. Granted, they took Reid in the first last year to bolster the secondary, but the 49ers were drafting for need in that regard.

Originally posted by GEEK:
Based on the pre-draft player visits, Baalke is targeting a speedy guy. We already have possession receivers - while I don't mind adding another talented receiver, I just don't see the need to trade up for one when this year's draft is deep at that position.

I personally think Baalke is targeting a starter, period, and that means a guy that can do as much as possible. The days of Boldin are coming to an end soon... it's almost safe to assume the 49ers will be drafting without having Boldin in mind.

What I mean by this is, well, look at the Green Bay Packers. When they took Jordy Nelson, they already had Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and James Jones. When they took Randall Cobb, they already had all of the above players. Now, just a few years later, it's down to Nelson, Cobb, and Jarrett Boykin.

The 49ers have been dealing with issues at the receiver position since Harbaugh became head coach. Tons of injuries, and AJ Jenkins completely busting did not help. I think they are going to pick a receiver that they see starting opposite Crabtree down the road, period. And they will take that guy in the first round... and probably trade up for him.
Originally posted by NickSh49:
Originally posted by Harbaalke:
I expect trade up in 1st round and trade up in the 2nd round

This might be more accurate. WR, then CB tho.

This.
Originally posted by NickSh49:


2006




2008




2010


This will probably be my first and only draft post. I know no more than anyone, so hopefully you'll enjoy my tiny grain of salt in this gigantic 49ers-draft conversation.


I believe the San Francisco 49ers will make two first-round draft picks on Day One of the 2014 NFL Draft.

• I believe the 49ers will first move up into the 12-17 range and draft their wide receiver of choice. If I had to guess, I'd say they trade with the Chicago Bears at pick #14 and take WR Mike Evans of Texas A&M. Either way, I see them going receiver, and I would bet money that the 49ers move up into the teens to do it. There's no way they wait until #30.

• I also believe the 49ers will then trade back into round one, into the 20-30 range, and take the best cornerback available. If I had to guess, I'd say they trade with the Green Bay Packers at #21 or Cincinnati Bengals at pick #24. I have no idea which player... I don't know much about the CB's in this draft, so I won't pretend to.


Reasons why? Lots of stuff you probably already know.

• Too many 2014 draft picks (11 total) for the 49ers, and the roster is full as it is.

• At WR, the 49ers are still paying for the bust that was the AJ Jenkins pick. Anquan Boldin has two years minimum left in him with this team, and the 49ers cannot wait another year to try to develop a stud-WR to replace him alongside Michael Crabtree. The 49ers need someone 100% ready for 2015, and Quinton Patton probably isn't the answer beyond being a solid #3, similar to a player like Atlanta's Harry Douglas. Not to mention the 49ers failed to find any depth at the position in free agency after trying out just about every #2 wide receiver they could find on the market. In addition, the Jim Harbaugh-49ers have also been severely unlucky with injuries at the receiver position over the past three years. There's no way this team goes into the 2014 season with Quinton Patton and Jon Baldwin (and Brandon Lloyd?) as their only insurance.

• At CB, the Chris Culliver arrest paired with both Tarrell Brown and Carlos Rogers leaving for the Oakland Raiders will push Trent Baalke to move up and draft a corner that can start Week One in 2014. The 49ers are simply short at the position, even though Culliver could potentially escape without suspension if he's lucky and start Week 1 regardless.


So why will the 49ers take a wide receiver before they take a cornerback this May? Simply because the 49ers as a franchise, historically and more prominently in recent years, do not place as much value on the corner position concerning their overall defensive approach. Defensively, they believe in beating their opponents using pressure from the front-seven rather than relying on lock-down corners on the edges. This is very similar to the defensive mentality employed by teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens.

And in relation to the draft, the 49ers believe in finding value at the corner position in later rounds. Tramaine Brock was an undrafted free agent. Chris Culliver was an almost unknown third round pick. Tarell Brown was a fifth. Carlos Rodgers was a free agency reclamation project during the lockout. Perrish Cox was also a free agency find. The last time the 49ers took a corner in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft? Shawntae Spencer, #58 overall, in 2004.

And if the 49ers don't move up in the first round to grab their new cornerback, I believe they will probably do it in the second. Regardless, prepare yourself for the 49ers to take a wide receiver first, then a cornerback. My 2¢.

(EDIT - I realized I'm arguing two different things here... the 49ers trading up twice and/or the 49ers making two first round picks... I guess it's just easier to say I think they'll make two first round picks... they could trade up for a WR in the teens and still stay put later, taking a CB at #30... regardless two guys, one round )

I agree that the niners will trade for Either WR Mike Evens or Odell Beckham jr. in round one but i am not so sure of trading back into round #1 for a corner. I like the idea though and I agree there is no way that we draft 11 new players there is no way we can afford it. The Aldon Smith situation complicates our plan and they have to do something about him fast this kid is throwing it all away for no reason. I say trade him get a high pick and a player.
Originally posted by LasVegasWally:
Originally posted by NickSh49:
Originally posted by Harbaalke:
I expect trade up in 1st round and trade up in the 2nd round

This might be more accurate. WR, then CB tho.

This.

That.
Originally posted by NickSh49:
That.

And this and uh.
I don't see it...with Aldon's issues, Baalke may need to adjust his draft board slightly to take a pass rusher earlier than he might've. If anything, I can see him trading up to maybe get a player he & Harbaugh really want, or trade out of the #30 spot to gain another 2nd rd pick. Considerably less costly to trade up in 2nd & 3rd rds to get players they want vs 1st rd. But, we really don't know what he'll do. Only thing we know for sure is he's got 11 picks to work with. That you can bank on.
No way Niners trade up for WR. CB maybe.

AJ killed that possibility.

I bet money we don't go for WR until high 2nd round earliest (and that would take a trade pick back from #30)
Originally posted by OldJoe:
No way Niners trade up for WR. CB maybe.

AJ killed that possibility.

I bet money we don't go for WR until high 2nd round earliest (and that would take a trade pick back from #30)

On the contrary. I think AJ is the reason getting that stud-WR is more of a priority.

You really want the 49ers to wait until the second round for a WR? You really want them to test that second round talent pool when the bonafide franchise receivers are sitting there in the first?

The Niners have the ammo to do this now. They need to invest for the future now. They'll move up in the first to take a WR, then either move back into the first for a CB or trade up in the second for a CB.
Bump!