Originally posted by MC9BEAT:
Originally posted by NickSh49:
Originally posted by Negrodamus:
Didn't know Scott McLaughlin was back as the GM
Baalke was responsible for the 2010 draft.
Regardless, what's the point of waiting? The 49ers need starters, not depth. They barely need 7 new players, let alone 11.
The Niners will take the stud-players they want unless they can't find a trade partner. Two guys in the first round. Bet on it.
Map out the trade for us. How do the 49ers get to #14 for a WR and then back in the 1st round again mid 20's to get a CB.
Possibly a 2nd and 4th rd pick to move up to #14 from the 30th pick?
Then our other 2nd rd pick plus two 3rd round picks to get back in to rd 1?
We would go from 7 picks in the 1st 4 rounds of a very deep draft to having only 3. ( Two 1st's and a 3rd)
We could probably get a good CB in round 1 staying put. Maybe need a 5th rd pick to move up a couple of slots.
We could then have the rest of our draft to get WR's and there are some very good ones available. In essence we would be spending both 2nd rd picks and two 3rd rd picks and a 4th rd pick to get WR Evans. Sounds a bit costly. Do you envision a cheaper way? You didn't lay out how we would trade up.
All good points.
First off, as stated, I think the 49ers could stay put at #30 and take a CB without moving up, so there's that.
But regarding taking a WR between picks #10-20 (like Mike Evans), I believe the 49ers could very well give up their first round pick in 2015 and get the guy they REALLY want towards the top of the draft this May.
Again, I think the 49ers want two top-tier starters going into this season at both CB & WR, and I think they will look for both in the first round. At WR, they want true insurance in case of any injuries to Crabs or Boldin as well as a guy that they believe can be a franchise player for them at the position for the next 5-8 years.
So why the first round? Because WR's taken in the second round of the draft don't tend to be GREAT. They tend to be GOOD players, but not great... and I think Baalke knows this.
It's similar logic as to why he traded up to take Eric Reid.
Let's look at the second round of the 2012 NFL Draft... Brian Quick, Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffery, Ryan Broyles, Reuben Randle. I'll throw in T.Y. Hilton, a third-rounder, for good measure. So Jeffery & Hilton are your studs here, with Randle looking pretty decent as well. But besides those guys, no one taken after them has shown any promise to be a multi-year starter in the league (Sanu, Brazil, & Matthews have shown flashes).
Let's look at the second round in 2011... Titus Young, Torrey Smith, Greg Little, & Randall Cobb. So you have 2.5 starters there (giving Young some credit before he started having mental problems). After that, you'd have a hard time finding anyone good. Vincent Brown & Cecil Shorts are the only guys taken after them who have done anything.
2010... Arrelious Benn & Golden Tate in the second round. Notable talent after... Brandon LaFell, Emmanuel Sanders, Eric Decker, Andre Roberts, Mike Williams, & Riley Cooper. This was a better year for receiver, obviously.
2009... Brian Robiskie & Mohamed Massoquoi. In later rounds, Mike Wallace, Austin Collie, Johnny Knox, & Julian Edleman.
The counter-argument to this is that first-round guys bust just as often, but I believe there is a major gap in talent between a first and second-round receiver.
2012... Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, & AJ Jenkins. Blackmon has issues and Jenkins was seen as a bad pick even on draft day, but the other two guys are playing very well.
2011... A.J. Green Julio Jones, & Jonathan Baldwin. 2 out of three franchise players.
2010... Demaryius Thomas & Dez Bryant. Franchise players.
2009... DHB, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, & Kenny Britt. So take away DHB and the injured/troubled Britt and you have three solid players (tho man... Nicks fell off huh).
My point is that I don't think the 49ers will gamble in the second round on a wide receiver. They want a stud that can start playing immediately without worry. In short, they'd rather have a Jeremy Maclin instead of an Arrelious Benn.
And as we've seen from this team, they believe they can find value at the CB position in later rounds.
So WR is definitely happening in Round 1, and I think they could very well move back into Round 1 to get a CB as well. But it wouldn't surprise me if they wait to move up in Round 2 to get their CB of choice instead.