LISTEN: Are The 49ers Showing Their Hand? →

There are 266 users in the forums

OTC's Top 64 Projection Board

Trade with up to get Justin Gilbert...
  • DeUh
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 4,006
Originally posted by Jakemall:
Hard to go up for contested balls on screens

Lol so people want to play the stat game

I guess you are referring to this chart here ?! If so and you are serious then you should learn to read it correctly.

Ok lets take a look then at the magic chart that will tell us what kind of receiver those players are without looking at all their tape ( being sarcastic ).
Beckham had 17.24% of his receptions 20 yards or deeper. Matthews had only 10.42% of his receptions 20 yards or deeper.
Does not look good for Matthews does it ?
Well then lets now take a look how many receptions both had last year.
Beckham: 59 receptions
Matthews: 112 receptions
Doing the little math shows us that Beckham caught 10 catches 20 yards or deeper. Matthews caught 12 catches 20 yards or deeper. Advantage Matthews.

Feel free to do it for the rest.
Originally posted by WRATHman44:
Originally posted by solidg2000:
Originally posted by WRATHman44:
Originally posted by solidg2000:
And please all this Matthews is just a possession WR talk...
Tell that to Alshon Jeffreys who was also just a possession WR

Two different guys, man. Jeffery goes up and gets contested balls, while I see Matthews repeatedly continuing to run as he pushes off the defender. That sh!t gets called in the NFL.

Then you probably haven't watched many of his games

Don't tell me. Show me.



Btw the flag vs the gators when he ran past the DB was on the DB for trying to grab Matthews while he ran past him
Originally posted by DeUh:
Originally posted by Jakemall:
Hard to go up for contested balls on screens

Lol so people want to play the stat game

I guess you are referring to this chart here ?! If so and you are serious then you should learn to read it correctly.

Ok lets take a look then at the magic chart that will tell us what kind of receiver those players are without looking at all their tape ( being sarcastic ).
Beckham had 17.24% of his receptions 20 yards or deeper. Matthews had only 10.42% of his receptions 20 yards or deeper.
Does not look good for Matthews does it ?
Well then lets now take a look how many receptions both had last year.
Beckham: 59 receptions
Matthews: 112 receptions
Doing the little math shows us that Beckham caught 10 catches 20 yards or deeper. Matthews caught 12 catches 20 yards or deeper. Advantage Matthews.

Feel free to do it for the rest.

First I was kinda joking....but that aside, let's explore.

It seems particularly silly to me that you want to compare # receptions to % of receptions. Mathews was a lone target...he was far and away the best receiving option on his team and the ball was fed to him. Beckham had to share receptions with Landry who is a great WR in his own right as well not to mention the team was better overall. I think there's reasonable justification for why his reception numbers are lower.

If you think that Matthews is a better prospect than Beckham, you're close to being alone in your opinion. All that said, they're totally different WRs. I don't even understand why you chose to highlight Beckham. At 5'11, he's hardly the "throw it up into the air and let him make a play" type.
Originally posted by solidg2000:


Btw the flag vs the gators when he ran past the DB was on the DB for trying to grab Matthews while he ran past him

No one said that Matthews is not a good WR. In fact, I believe I have said before in these forums that I think he is a faster Boldin or a Bigger Crabtree, and I like those players. While I freely admit that there are about a half dozen downfield plays where he is clearly past the coverage for a deep reception, the great majority of his deep receptions are contested because the coverage is right there, and he pushes off frequently in those scenarios. I would not be upset if the 49ers took him; I would simply take it as an indication that they don't think they can re-sign Crab. I will be upset if they fail to address the lack of deep speed we have in the WR corp at some point (Richardson, Moncrief, Reese, Bryant, Herron maybe Archer or Ellington). The simple reason I prefer Moncrief is that I think he could be the deep threat now, and learn under Q to do the other stuff as his knowledge and role expand. It's a personal preference, and an obvious bet on potential over production, but he's the only guy I see with that combination of size, agility, speed, and acceleration that would allow him to be a deep threat and an eventual every down guy.

I don't think you have to hate one guy to like the other, but I think he plays to or better than his timed speed, and I don't think Matthews does (maybe with the ball in his hands, though).
  • DeUh
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 4,006
Originally posted by Jakemall:
Originally posted by DeUh:
Originally posted by Jakemall:
Hard to go up for contested balls on screens

Lol so people want to play the stat game

I guess you are referring to this chart here ?! If so and you are serious then you should learn to read it correctly.

Ok lets take a look then at the magic chart that will tell us what kind of receiver those players are without looking at all their tape ( being sarcastic ).
Beckham had 17.24% of his receptions 20 yards or deeper. Matthews had only 10.42% of his receptions 20 yards or deeper.
Does not look good for Matthews does it ?
Well then lets now take a look how many receptions both had last year.
Beckham: 59 receptions
Matthews: 112 receptions
Doing the little math shows us that Beckham caught 10 catches 20 yards or deeper. Matthews caught 12 catches 20 yards or deeper. Advantage Matthews.

Feel free to do it for the rest.

First I was kinda joking....but that aside, let's explore.

It seems particularly silly to me that you want to compare # receptions to % of receptions. Mathews was a lone target...he was far and away the best receiving option on his team and the ball was fed to him. Beckham had to share receptions with Landry who is a great WR in his own right as well not to mention the team was better overall. I think there's reasonable justification for why his reception numbers are lower.

If you think that Matthews is a better prospect than Beckham, you're close to being alone in your opinion. All that said, they're totally different WRs. I don't even understand why you chose to highlight Beckham. At 5'11, he's hardly the "throw it up into the air and let him make a play" type.

I think we talk completely at cross-purposes.
My intention was not to say that Matthews is a more dangerous downfield threat than Beckham but to show you and the rest of the people on here that charts like this are completely misleading without the rest of the numbers and tape.

Here is what that page wrote as explanation under the chart.
" Jordan Matthews caught around 50% of his receptions behind the line of scrimmage with limited experience downfield " An explanation like this is pretty close to being ridiculous.
To get the whole picture of course you have to take the total reception numbers into the consideration.

The chart represents the percentage of catches in each zone. So lets paint the whole picture then for Matthews with the help of this chart.
Of his 112 receptions he caught
51 on screens
20 between 1-5 yards
14 between 6-10 yards
15 between 11-20 yards
12 20 yards or deeper

A few other reception numbers 20 yards or deeper
Odell Beckham 10
Allen Robinson 10
Jarvis Landry 12
Brandin Cooks 17
Sammy Watkins 10
Mike Evans 18
Kelvin Benjamin 14
Marqise Lee 2

Remember I said that those numbers should not tell you who the better player is. That is why I was being so sarcastic and called it the magic chart. But how someone can make the statement that Matthews has limited experience downfield is beyond me !

I like to look through all the stats available and they can help you to paint the picture of a player. But without the rest ( reception numbers, is he the only receiving option or are there others on the team, who was he playing against, in which conference did he play, the game tape, personality, interviews etc. etc. etc. ) charts like this are complete nonsense !
[ Edited by DeUh on Mar 25, 2014 at 7:46 AM ]
Originally posted by DeUh:
Originally posted by Jakemall:
Originally posted by DeUh:
Originally posted by Jakemall:
Hard to go up for contested balls on screens

Lol so people want to play the stat game

I guess you are referring to this chart here ?! If so and you are serious then you should learn to read it correctly.

Ok lets take a look then at the magic chart that will tell us what kind of receiver those players are without looking at all their tape ( being sarcastic ).
Beckham had 17.24% of his receptions 20 yards or deeper. Matthews had only 10.42% of his receptions 20 yards or deeper.
Does not look good for Matthews does it ?
Well then lets now take a look how many receptions both had last year.
Beckham: 59 receptions
Matthews: 112 receptions
Doing the little math shows us that Beckham caught 10 catches 20 yards or deeper. Matthews caught 12 catches 20 yards or deeper. Advantage Matthews.

Feel free to do it for the rest.

First I was kinda joking....but that aside, let's explore.

It seems particularly silly to me that you want to compare # receptions to % of receptions. Mathews was a lone target...he was far and away the best receiving option on his team and the ball was fed to him. Beckham had to share receptions with Landry who is a great WR in his own right as well not to mention the team was better overall. I think there's reasonable justification for why his reception numbers are lower.

If you think that Matthews is a better prospect than Beckham, you're close to being alone in your opinion. All that said, they're totally different WRs. I don't even understand why you chose to highlight Beckham. At 5'11, he's hardly the "throw it up into the air and let him make a play" type.

I think we talk completely at cross-purposes.
My intention was not to say that Matthews is a more dangerous downfield threat than Beckham but to show you and the rest of the people on here that charts like this are completely misleading without the rest of the numbers and tape.

Here is what that page wrote as explanation under the chart.
" Jordan Matthews caught around 50% of his receptions behind the line of scrimmage with limited experience downfield " An explanation like this is pretty close to being ridiculous.
To get the whole picture of course you have to take the total reception numbers into the consideration.

The chart represents the percentage of catches in each zone. So lets paint the whole picture then for Matthews with the help of this chart.
Of his 112 receptions he caught
51 on screens
20 between 1-5 yards
14 between 6-10 yards
15 between 11-20 yards
12 20 yards or deeper

A few other reception numbers 20 yards or deeper
Odell Beckham 10
Allen Robinson 10
Jarvis Landry 12
Brandin Cooks 17
Sammy Watkins 10
Mike Evans 18
Kelvin Benjamin 14
Marqise Lee 2

Remember I said that those numbers should not tell you who the better player is. That is why I was being so sarcastic and called it the magic chart. But how someone can make the statement that Matthews has limited experience downfield is beyond me !

I like to look through all the stats available and they can help you to paint the picture of a player. But without the rest ( reception numbers, is he the only receiving option or are there others on the team, who was he playing against, in which conference did he play, the game tape, personality, interviews etc. etc. etc. ) charts like this are complete nonsense !

If we really wanted to sort this out, we should probably look at the deep routes on all players and see what teams they were against. As you're suggesting, stats don't tell the whole story...including the ones you're using.

Again, I was joking mostly because of his high % of screens...and to tease Solid.
Share 49ersWebzone