OTC's Top 64 Projection Board

Originally posted by WRATHman44:

Originally posted by solidg2000:
Wow this whole thing (Moncreif hype) is getting old.
We get it, you love moncreif
He was such an amazing player in college that he broke SEC records!...
I mean with all those physical attributes he possesses, it was easy to see why he easily led the SEC in rec yards!...
And he did it with no help from the #2 WR!...
Oh wait...
Some of you guys talk about this under achiever as if he is the next mega tron!
He had a verticle offense, a future #1 college WR at #2, and the attributes to dominate. Yet he regressed!
He runs fast and jumps high, so what! He disappeared when he was pressed.
I will also go out on a limb and say he's not that good with the ball in his hands and come the end of the college season he was more of a #2 then #1.
Teams use screens to get the ball to their playmaker and let him make plays! (See Watkins, Matthews)
Yet, Moncreif wasn't that guy, it was Treadwell
I honestly believe, one of the reasons moncreif left school early is because he was going to play second fiddle to Treadwell.

Does he have potential? Yes, it's obvious. Will he reach that potential? Only if he goes to a team that airs it out, but I don't see him developing as a #1.
I don't think he's physical enough, or strong enough. Huge reason why I don't see Josh Gordon, I see more Robert Meachem. Every once in a while he will flash in the pan, but overall he's nothing special.

And now of course here comes the Matthews bashing because I dared question Moncreifs awesomeness...
45% of his catches where screens (see how many Watkins had)
He's only a possession WR and we have too many of those already (sure did look like it last year right? Crab will be an ufa, Boldin in old and... Oh where did all those possession WR go)
He's too slow (4.46 40 time looks slow)
What else?

We get that you prefer Matthews. Honestly, we do. I don't think he is a downfield threat. Show us a clip of him running free on a downfield route after separating from coverage. Show a deep reception where he doesn't push off of a DB that has him blanketed. He's a hard worker, and I'd attribute his 4.46 to diligent work on his stance and start out of the stance as he prepared specifically for the combine. That timed speed doesn't show up as downfield separation in the deep passing game.

Where does that come from. Who said that Matthews is a downfield threat ? He is a west coast possesion receiver and could be a very good replacement for Crabtree or Boldin next year. Same goes for Davante Adams who I also like a lot in that role.

What we also need is a deep threat. That is where players like Beckham, Richardson, Moncrief, Bryant, Herron etc come into play. I dont see any of those guys give us what we have in Crabtree or Boldin.

That is the reason the FO should pick 2 wide receiver in the draft. I dont see a receiver this year, at least where we are picking, that will give us both.

Originally posted by DeUh:

Originally posted by WRATHman44:

Originally posted by solidg2000:
Wow this whole thing (Moncreif hype) is getting old.
We get it, you love moncreif
He was such an amazing player in college that he broke SEC records!...
I mean with all those physical attributes he possesses, it was easy to see why he easily led the SEC in rec yards!...
And he did it with no help from the #2 WR!...
Oh wait...
Some of you guys talk about this under achiever as if he is the next mega tron!
He had a verticle offense, a future #1 college WR at #2, and the attributes to dominate. Yet he regressed!
He runs fast and jumps high, so what! He disappeared when he was pressed.
I will also go out on a limb and say he's not that good with the ball in his hands and come the end of the college season he was more of a #2 then #1.
Teams use screens to get the ball to their playmaker and let him make plays! (See Watkins, Matthews)
Yet, Moncreif wasn't that guy, it was Treadwell
I honestly believe, one of the reasons moncreif left school early is because he was going to play second fiddle to Treadwell.

Does he have potential? Yes, it's obvious. Will he reach that potential? Only if he goes to a team that airs it out, but I don't see him developing as a #1.
I don't think he's physical enough, or strong enough. Huge reason why I don't see Josh Gordon, I see more Robert Meachem. Every once in a while he will flash in the pan, but overall he's nothing special.

And now of course here comes the Matthews bashing because I dared question Moncreifs awesomeness...
45% of his catches where screens (see how many Watkins had)
He's only a possession WR and we have too many of those already (sure did look like it last year right? Crab will be an ufa, Boldin in old and... Oh where did all those possession WR go)
He's too slow (4.46 40 time looks slow)
What else?

We get that you prefer Matthews. Honestly, we do. I don't think he is a downfield threat. Show us a clip of him running free on a downfield route after separating from coverage. Show a deep reception where he doesn't push off of a DB that has him blanketed. He's a hard worker, and I'd attribute his 4.46 to diligent work on his stance and start out of the stance as he prepared specifically for the combine. That timed speed doesn't show up as downfield separation in the deep passing game.

Where does that come from. Who said that Matthews is a downfield threat ? He is a west coast possesion receiver and could be a very good replacement for Crabtree or Boldin next year. Same goes for Davante Adams who I also like a lot in that role.

What we also need is a deep threat. That is where players like Beckham, Richardson, Moncrief, Bryant, Herron etc come into play. I dont see any of those guys give us what we have in Crabtree or Boldin.

That is the reason the FO should pick 2 wide receiver in the draft. I dont see a receiver this year, at least where we are picking, that will give us both.

Where it came from is a feeling of exasperation in wading through Solid's condescension once again to explain how us idiots on the Zone could prefer Moncrief to Matthews. Many of us believe that Moncrief is more necessary, simply because a deep threat is a greater need. Solid chose to reference a 40 time to explain that Matthews plays fast. I disagreed.

The Matthews vs. Moncrief debate is a little out of hand. They both have the potential to be very good football players, but I have much reason to believe Moncrief will be at the very least marginally better. I'll admit I overstepped a little by saying a team would be "dumb" for selecting Matthews. There are good reasons to take him if you're looking for a possession receiver.

The comment on Moncrief being like Meachem though? Strongly disagree. Meachem was not as built as Moncrief. Moncrief is bigger and just as fast, if not faster on the field. Meachem also had injury concerns from his past. His other knocks were inconsistency tracking the ball and inability to sustain blocks despite his perceived strength.

All that said, sometimes when everything seems to add up on paper to cause the assumption "He will be a good player", whether it's circumstances or injuries or some other reason, there are times it just doesn't happen.

My mock has us taking both of em

with CB J.Watkins at the end of the 2nd

Originally posted by highway49:
Carr before Johnny Football seems very possible....

After Thursday, we will know for sure. Johnny Football's Pro Day is going to be huge for his future.

Originally posted by WRATHman44:
We get that you prefer Matthews. Honestly, we do. I don't think he is a downfield threat. Show us a clip of him running free on a downfield route after separating from coverage. Show a deep reception where he doesn't push off of a DB that has him blanketed. He's a hard worker, and I'd attribute his 4.46 to diligent work on his stance and start out of the stance as he prepared specifically for the combine. That timed speed doesn't show up as downfield separation in the deep passing game.

This. Matthews skill set is great, but not what we need most. Solidg just loves him some Matthews. We don't need another possession receiver, we need Moncrief. Though if by some miracle we could get both, I'd be ecstatic.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by Jakemall:

You really think Matthews will go before Moncrief? Bold predictions on Cooks and Manziel considering the hype..not that I disagree.

Ealy at 17? I really think he is the 2nd best DE in the draft...maybe the best depending on Clowney. (not that Ealy will be the first one chosen)

All that, great job!!!

This is of course going to change a bit (I've made some adjustments already), but my initial thoughts are to include a few "surprises" to varying degrees. Cooks could very well be moved back into the 1st by next week as I shuffle things around. But yes, I do think a team will be dumb and select Matthews first. I think we both feel Moncrief is the better player, but chances are that not every GM feels the same.

For me, the question about Koni Ealy brings up questions.

You do make it clear that the ranking is not about the quality of a player.

If this board is only projections of where a player will be drafted, why do people keep talking about the quality of a player.

Clearly, projecting approximate draft positions of players entails both an evaluation of the skill set of players and to some extent an evaluation of team need.

To some degree, your board is an evaluation of best player.

I would really like to see your ranking of players based on skill set-a ranking of the best players.

Just my point of view. Maybe, you could do both.

Thanks for your work.

Originally posted by buck:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by Jakemall:
You really think Matthews will go before Moncrief? Bold predictions on Cooks and Manziel considering the hype..not that I disagree.

Ealy at 17? I really think he is the 2nd best DE in the draft...maybe the best depending on Clowney. (not that Ealy will be the first one chosen)

All that, great job!!!

This is of course going to change a bit (I've made some adjustments already), but my initial thoughts are to include a few "surprises" to varying degrees. Cooks could very well be moved back into the 1st by next week as I shuffle things around. But yes, I do think a team will be dumb and select Matthews first. I think we both feel Moncrief is the better player, but chances are that not every GM feels the same.

For me, the question about Koni Ealy brings up questions.

You do make it clear that the ranking is not about the quality of a player.

If this board is only projections of where a player will be drafted, why do people keep talking about the quality of a player.

Clearly, projecting approximate draft positions of players entails both an evaluation of the skill set of players and to some extent an evaluation of team need.

To some degree, your board is an evaluation of best player.

I would really like to see your ranking of players based on skill set-a ranking of the best players.

Just my point of view. Maybe, you could do both.

Thanks for your work.

You're right. It is a projection of where a player will be taken. That does not eliminate the quality of a player as part of the equation. Especially when you consider BPA.

First of all, my criticisms of moncreif stand alone.
They were not compared to Matthews, they were on Moncreif and Moncreif alone.
I brought up Matthews in the end because anytime I talk about moncreif, everyone brings up Matthews because they know I'm a fan.
If you really want to compare
Jordan Matthews vs Donte Moncreif
Long 12/13
78-55 vs 77-67

1st 12/13
54-54 vs 34-38

15+ 12/13
34-31 vs 20-22

25+ 12/13
10-18 vs 11-13

In one side you have JM who was double covered or had a safety shading him up top or zone going his way. In 9 out of 10 catches, he's surrounded by 2 or more defenders
In the other side you have DM who was mainly single covered

In one side you have JM who will do whatever it takes to get it done, has puked on the field from a huge hit and come back to make huge plays (see ole miss game)
In the other side you have a guy who has clearly quit on a game and looked lazy and uninterested at times

And please all this Matthews is just a possession WR talk...
Tell that to Alshon Jeffreys who was also just a possession WR

Originally posted by solidg2000:
And please all this Matthews is just a possession WR talk...
Tell that to Alshon Jeffreys who was also just a possession WR

Two different guys, man. Jeffery goes up and gets contested balls, while I see Matthews repeatedly continuing to run as he pushes off the defender. That sh!t gets called in the NFL.

Originally posted by WRATHman44:

Originally posted by solidg2000:

And please all this Matthews is just a possession WR talk...
Tell that to Alshon Jeffreys who was also just a possession WR

Two different guys, man. Jeffery goes up and gets contested balls, while I see Matthews repeatedly continuing to run as he pushes off the defender. That sh!t gets called in the NFL.

Then you probably haven't watched many of his games

Originally posted by solidg2000:

Originally posted by WRATHman44:

Originally posted by solidg2000:
And please all this Matthews is just a possession WR talk...
Tell that to Alshon Jeffreys who was also just a possession WR

Two different guys, man. Jeffery goes up and gets contested balls, while I see Matthews repeatedly continuing to run as he pushes off the defender. That sh!t gets called in the NFL.

Then you probably haven't watched many of his games

Hard to go up for contested balls on screens

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
The Matthews vs. Moncrief debate is a little out of hand. They both have the potential to be very good football players, but I have much reason to believe Moncrief will be at the very least marginally better. I'll admit I overstepped a little by saying a team would be "dumb" for selecting Matthews. There are good reasons to take him if you're looking for a possession receiver.

The comment on Moncrief being like Meachem though? Strongly disagree. Meachem was not as built as Moncrief. Moncrief is bigger and just as fast, if not faster on the field. Meachem also had injury concerns from his past. His other knocks were inconsistency tracking the ball and inability to sustain blocks despite his perceived strength.

All that said, sometimes when everything seems to add up on paper to cause the assumption "He will be a good player", whether it's circumstances or injuries or some other reason, there are times it just doesn't happen.

OTC, how do you compare these two to Allen Robinson? I am a fan of his, but don't hear his name as much.

Originally posted by solidg2000:

Originally posted by WRATHman44:

Originally posted by solidg2000:
And please all this Matthews is just a possession WR talk...
Tell that to Alshon Jeffreys who was also just a possession WR

Two different guys, man. Jeffery goes up and gets contested balls, while I see Matthews repeatedly continuing to run as he pushes off the defender. That sh!t gets called in the NFL.

Then you probably haven't watched many of his games

Don't tell me. Show me.