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OTC's Mock Series: Strategy One - St. Patty's Day Edition 3/17/14

  • GORO
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 1,802
Easley pick has our GM written all over it. Baalke has generally drafted for need with his first selection so Lee is an intriguing option but maybe trading up to get a Cornerback is what he will do. Love you strategy and points for each pick and shows you are truly a knowledgeable fan.
I can't see Bàalke waiting that long to get a CB. I like your selections, as I think he focuses on bigger corners.
I don't see Baalke trading up for Lee...agree, when healthy, he's a dandy, but that's been his problem. It'll only get rougher on him physically in the NFL. I'd take best CB available, probably Fuller. I'm down with any of the top DL...Easley's fine to redshirt. I'd also be good with either Hageman or Tuitt. I'd take Adams or Matthews over Bryant. Their bodies of work are more consistent and impressive, IMHO. Not taking CB's earlier is a mistake, to me. Both Gains and Aikens are short-armed guys. That's why I'd take Fuller earlier and maybe McGill or Desir later. Don't get the Stork pick...the C position is Kilgore's to lose and he has 3 b/u's.
I like the approach but would agree with others on the critique of the Easley pick. My own opinion is that D-lineman are probably rated pretty low on our team board so that pick seems a bit high. Couple that with our current secondary and I would double up on CB early and would cream my pants if that happened. But great draft, takes care of both WR and CB issues.
Originally posted by CorvaNinerFan:
I don't see Baalke trading up for Lee...agree, when healthy, he's a dandy, but that's been his problem. It'll only get rougher on him physically in the NFL. I'd take best CB available, probably Fuller. I'm down with any of the top DL...Easley's fine to redshirt. I'd also be good with either Hageman or Tuitt. I'd take Adams or Matthews over Bryant. Their bodies of work are more consistent and impressive, IMHO. Not taking CB's earlier is a mistake, to me. Both Gains and Aikens are short-armed guys. That's why I'd take Fuller earlier and maybe McGill or Desir later. Don't get the Stork pick...the C position is Kilgore's to lose and he has 3 b/u's.

I see a lot of people questioning Lee's health. I was doing the exact same thing until I realized I might be just talking out of my rear. Lee displayed toughness battling through an injury because he wanted to help his team win. He had never been hurt before this year. Trying to tough it out one season I don't believe warrants the status as an injury risk, or a fragile player.

It has been debunked as well that we only go after long-armed guys. But Aikens certainly is not one of those. Neither is Gaines (check his combine scouting report). Scouts tout the long arms as assets for both. Stork doesn't have to strictly be a center. His versatility makes him an asset at all three interior positions. The 49ers draft an OL every year to compete.

All that said, I think if some people aren't questioning half the picks, then I haven't done my job in making a Baalke-style mock. With Baalke, he makes picks half the time that you just don't get until later on.
[ Edited by OnTheClock on Mar 18, 2014 at 6:59 AM ]
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
All that said, I think if some people aren't questioning half the picks, then I haven't done my job in making a Baalke-style mock. With Baalke, he makes picks half the time that you just don't get until later on.
True true. BUT, this year (though it is valid for the last year, too) we have to be aware of the d-line situation, at RDE in particular. Justin turns 35:
1)you don't know whether he starts to decline significantly AND/OR
2)he goes down with an injury

Furthermore, even if Tank is fit and plays near his potential, we should still provide a backup who could step in for Tank immediately or at least almost immediately. I am afraid that Easley cannot do this.
I wouldn't b***h around if you/Balke picked him later but with the Chiefs-pick??? way too early.

Way too much risk.

Don't get me wrong, I do understand your approach. You try to project Baalke's thoughts rather than provide your wish list...I am absolutely ok with this way of mocking. But I would throw my laptop against the wall if he really makes this move.
Originally posted by GORO:
Easley pick has our GM written all over it. Baalke has generally drafted for need with his first selection so Lee is an intriguing option but maybe trading up to get a Cornerback is what he will do. Love you strategy and points for each pick and shows you are truly a knowledgeable fan.

I appreciate the kind words.

In a couple weeks, I'll debut Baalke's 2nd potential strategy. I see you expect a CB selection to be more likely. Stay tuned...
Nice mock for part 1. WR's could be special if they can fulfill their immense potential, same with Easley. They all have question marks attached, but the draft is a crapshoot anyway.

Like the CB picks, especially Aiken. Great value in the 4th.

Good late round values in Fortt and Long.

Would still want to take a FB/TE late instead of an OT since we traded for Martin.
Originally posted by Butter:
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
SCENARIO: MINOR TRADE UP

49ers trade their 1st (30) and 3rd (94) to move into the Top 25 to select...



1 (20-25). Marqise Lee-WR-USC, 6-0 192 4.52
Lee and everyone else who saw him play healthy knows he not only has much better than 4.52 field speed, he possess top-notch quickness in the open field to make defenders miss and turn shorter plays into long ones. Lee missed three games this year due to injuries and clearly wasn't himself all season. With defenses game planning against him, the odds were even less in his favor. On a positive note, Lee showed up big in the team's bowl game where he had about 120 yards and 2 TDs. Looking into Lee's apparent reputation for being injury prone reveals those who hold that opinion really haven't followed him. This was his only season where he battled injuries. Other notes: Lee is not exactly a powerful blocker, but effort-wise he does a great job. Lee is not the strongest player on the field, but but he is an explosive playmaker who would likely excel in the slot with Crabtree, Boldin, and Vernon drawing coverage away. Adding him would reunite him with his former WR coach, John Morton, who coached Lee as a freshman.


OTC, Ive been beating this drum for awhile, maybe you can provide your opinion.

How do Lee and Patton compare? Their measurables are almost identical.

They certainly are similar in a lot of ways. Lee has game-breaking return ability and while both are high effort players, Lee is surprisingly more physical despite not being that big of a player. He also comes from a major program, a pro-style offense, and has an edge in his RAc ability in terms of open-field agility and outsmarting his opponent by not tipping off his breaks. This is what makes him a touch higher; his quickness of the line to beat press is better and one of the reasons you see Lee streaking wide open down the field often because they couldn't get a jam on him.

Personally, there is little room between them in their draft grades. Last year, I graded Patton a late 2nd. I grade Lee a late 1st this year.
Originally posted by m_brockalexander:
Would still want to take a FB/TE late instead of an OT since we traded for Martin.
Given that we have Vernon and Vance, I would try to snatch Colt Lyerla as an undrafted FA. Seems to be very physical in order to be a good blocker and he can catch.

here is a scouting report on him:
http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/colt-lyerla?id=2543636
[ Edited by communist on Mar 18, 2014 at 8:01 AM ]
I am not sold on Lee. I used to like him on highlight films, but watching play live, on TV and at Cal and Stanford games, he lets people get into his head and defenses can remove him from games. He would be a JJ Stokes type of USC drafting. No thank you.
  • GEEK
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 17,125
OTC - You know I have a lot of respect for you, and you definitely address the team's needs in this mock, but I disagree with some of the player selections and their draft slot.

The Lee Pick - Very talented wide receiver, but I think the ability to block in the run game and health concerns place Lee behind one of the other prospects in the draft. Lee had shoulder, knee, and leg injuries last season - and that's a concern for me. And the biggest red flag is the college - there's only one decent USC QB in the league today, and that's Robert Woods (2nd round pick in 2013).

This is why I think Odell Beckham Jr is a better prospect and fit for the 49ers. May not be as fast, but a precise route runner, blocks, returns, and comes from a program that's a better fit to our team. LaFell, Bowe, and Randle are the notable active LSU WRs.

The Easley Pick - Not a fan of this pick at all. I don't see Easley as a 5 technique in the NFL. He's an undersized defensive tackle that is best in a Panthers or Seahawks type scheme. Plus, he's had ACL injuries in both knees. I rather address the secondary with this pick than use it on another red shirt defensive end, and I don't think Baalke is going to do the exact same thing two years in a row.

The Bryant Pick - I like this pick quite a bit. Bryant adds size and speed to an undersized position. As long as Seely can develop him to also play special teams and take over Osgood's role, then I'll be more comfortable with the pick.

The Gaines and Atkins Pick - I think 1 safety and 1 CB here, but Gaines and Atkins are solid choices. I think Gaines is more of a zone defender, and think he might struggle in man-to-man coverage.

The rest - Good solid choices with Stork and Long for the interior offensive line, and Fortt at ILB to compete with Moody. I don't like the Pierre-Louis pick, because I think you can get a traditional safety between rounds 3-5 to develop.

Overall, I'll have to agree with many posters here and give this a C+/B- grade. But I'm obviously biased with the players I like vs. the players you like/think Baalke will target.
Thanks for the excellent post. Appreciate how you broke it down to make it logical and easy to follow.

I get it - it's NOT your draft BUT what you think Trent will do. That's tough, thinking like someone else, but I think it was a fine effort.

In that regard, I agree w/others, I have zero confidence Lee is the right pick at #1 [I know Trent is picking not you]

I see him doing an "Eric Reid" move up and getting CB.

I've been a BIG Easely fan BUT not at #2 - one injury OK, 2 injuries and coming in as a rookie lineman - I don't see Trent doing that when other talent is available.

I also think Aikens is going to be the steal of the draft.

Thanks for the work and effort.
Originally posted by pd24:
Too much talent in this draft to trade a 3rd to move 5 or 10 spots for Lee. I would do the 4th, but we can get a good rotation player and eventual starter with that 3rd round pick. This is a deep draft.

Agreed. Lee had a good college career, but man he seems to lack that toughness.. he seems fragile, and USC has a long track history of producing NFL WR's that never pan out. I think Key was the last great one.
Originally posted by GEEK:
OTC - You know I have a lot of respect for you, and you definitely address the team's needs in this mock, but I disagree with some of the player selections and their draft slot.

The Lee Pick - Very talented wide receiver, but I think the ability to block in the run game and health concerns place Lee behind one of the other prospects in the draft. Lee had shoulder, knee, and leg injuries last season - and that's a concern for me. And the biggest red flag is the college - there's only one decent USC QB in the league today, and that's Robert Woods (2nd round pick in 2013).

This is why I think Odell Beckham Jr is a better prospect and fit for the 49ers. May not be as fast, but a precise route runner, blocks, returns, and comes from a program that's a better fit to our team. LaFell, Bowe, and Randle are the notable active LSU WRs.

The Easley Pick - Not a fan of this pick at all. I don't see Easley as a 5 technique in the NFL. He's an undersized defensive tackle that is best in a Panthers or Seahawks type scheme. Plus, he's had ACL injuries in both knees. I rather address the secondary with this pick than use it on another red shirt defensive end, and I don't think Baalke is going to do the exact same thing two years in a row.

The Bryant Pick - I like this pick quite a bit. Bryant adds size and speed to an undersized position. As long as Seely can develop him to also play special teams and take over Osgood's role, then I'll be more comfortable with the pick.

The Gaines and Atkins Pick - I think 1 safety and 1 CB here, but Gaines and Atkins are solid choices. I think Gaines is more of a zone defender, and think he might struggle in man-to-man coverage.

The rest - Good solid choices with Stork and Long for the interior offensive line, and Fortt at ILB to compete with Moody. I don't like the Pierre-Louis pick, because I think you can get a traditional safety between rounds 3-5 to develop.

Overall, I'll have to agree with many posters here and give this a C+/B- grade. But I'm obviously biased with the players I like vs. the players you like/think Baalke will target.

I understand the sentiments fully, and I appreciate your feedback. It's always great to hear others' side, because sometimes I hear things that even I had not considered about Baalke.

I expected this to be a highly criticized mock, but lucky for you folks, there's still two more to go before the final concluding one.