There are 149 users in the forums

Remember
Not a member? Register Now!

OTC's Mock Series: Strategy One - St. Patty's Day Edition 3/17/14

Well fellas, with many pro days having passed and the major free agent signings out of the way, it's been time to shuffle the boards, re-review, reevaluate, and re-slot prospects. I've decided to add a little twist to the normal mocks I put together, and to mix it up a little bit, I will be doing a four-part mockumentary (har har) series to forecast the various draft strategies I believe we might employ. The final concluding mock will be the one that I ultimately feel we will do. So with all that said now, let's gets started.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quick Snap of the current depth chart at selected positions (players unlikely to even make PS not included):

WR: Crabtree, Boldin, Patton, Baldwin, Chuck Jacobs, Wylie
OT: Staley, Davis, Martin, Bykowski, Marquardt
OG: Iupati, Boone, Snyder, Looney, Netter, Seymour
C: Kilgore, Looney
DE: Smith, McDonald, Carradine, TJE, Dial, Okoye
NT: Dorsey, Ian Williams, Purcell
OLB: Aldon, Brooks, Lemonier, Skuta
ILB: Willis, Bowman, Wilhoite, Moody, Fleming
CB: Brock, Culliver, Wright, Morris, Cook, Swanson
S: Reid, Bethea, Spillman, Dahl, Ventrone

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SCENARIO: MINOR TRADE UP

49ers trade their 1st (30) and 3rd (94) to move into the Top 25 to select...



1 (20-25). Marqise Lee-WR-USC, 6-0 192 4.52
Lee and everyone else who saw him play healthy knows he not only has much better than 4.52 field speed, he possess top-notch quickness in the open field to make defenders miss and turn shorter plays into long ones. Lee missed three games this year due to injuries and clearly wasn't himself all season. With defenses game planning against him, the odds were even less in his favor. On a positive note, Lee showed up big in the team's bowl game where he had about 120 yards and 2 TDs. Looking into Lee's apparent reputation for being injury prone reveals those who hold that opinion really haven't followed him. This was his only season where he battled injuries. Other notes: Lee is not exactly a powerful blocker, but effort-wise he does a great job. Lee is not the strongest player on the field, but but he is an explosive playmaker who would likely excel in the slot with Crabtree, Boldin, and Vernon drawing coverage away. Adding him would reunite him with his former WR coach, John Morton, who coached Lee as a freshman.

2 (56). Dominique Easley-DE-Florida, 6-2 288 4.93
If not for the injury, Easley likely would be being discussed as a first round lock. I would be apprehensive, as anyone would, taking a player with two separate ACL injuries. However, we seem to feel okay with taking players we believe can be elite threats when healthy, if we believe they can recover. Most who were around Easley will say his drive and determination makes him one of the most likely to come back from a knee injury like this and get back to dominating, just like he did the first time. The 49ers would likely put him on the PUP to ensure he completely heals, but by 2015, you could have the successors to Ray McDonald and Justin Smith terrorizing defenses in Easley and Carradine.

2 (61). Martavis Bryant-WR-Clemson, 6-4 211 4.42

As badly as I only want us to draft true potential #1's, I don't know if we'll go in that direction here. This wouldn't be my favorite pick here, but I can't help but feel the 49ers might be inclined to go in this direction. Why? Well first, Baalke has a tendency to go after missing elements on the team. When Moss left, so did the threat of a tall, speedy, downfield threat. As many have mentioned, we do not run 3-wide sets often and Bryant, who is quite raw and needs development, would be a package player I'd imagine. The re-signing of Boldin means the 49ers might feel they have the luxury of developing a high-upside player at the position until he leaves. Bryant shows flashes of great play, but the team may be convinced that once he's experienced, the consistency of high-level play would come. This off-season the 49ers have primarily shown an interest in two types of receivers: 1) tall, downfield weapons, and 2) shifty slot receivers. Bryant fits the first.

3 (77). Philip Gaines-CB-Rice, 6-0 193 4.38
Gaines boasts the abilities to matchup inside and outside, something that makes him a great fit for taking over the role vacated by Carlos Rogers. Gaines' speed, quickness, and competitive fire are evident and although he has several coachable/developing deficiences (could tackle better, play under more control, and gain some upper body strength), his potential, athleticism, and on-field performance make him a likely top 100 pick. I am not fully convinced we will go after a CB in round one. I think we may be smoke-screening and won't take a DB unless one we love falls right into place there.

4 (125). Walt Aikens-CB-Liberty, 6-1 203 4.47
The kid's pure talent is undeniable, and his potential development as a press corner makes it unlikely for him to fall out of the 4th if his character flags and medical evaluations all check out. His arrest for theft I'm sure will be looked at by teams, but if they are convinced that's a thing of the past, it shouldn't hurt him terribly. The Illinois transfer dominated the lower level of competition at Liberty, but still played impressive at the Senior Bowl. He possesses the long arms Baalke covets and is known for being a playmaker and consistent threat to cause turnovers. He lacks top-level recovery speed, but everything else is good-to-great. Overall, Aikens would be a tremendous fit for the team.

4 (TBD). Bryan Stork-C-Florida State, 6-4 315 5.20

Won the Rimington Trophy for best center in the nation. Stork is swift-footed, versatile (can play all interior positions), plays with terrific technique and leverage, and Was an unquestioned leader for his team. He displayed a nasty streak and finishes his play through the whistle. His only knock is he needs to develop his blocking in space on the move (much like Looney), and could add some strength to his lower body. Stork would provide depth along the interior and with development, could compete for a starting job by 2015.

5 (158). Kevin Pierre-Louis-SS-Boston College. 6-0 232 4.51
Productive linebacker for BC, but is undersized for the position in the NFL and scouts feel he is going to have to make the transition to strong safety. His pure athleticism and noted ball skills make him a great fit for the position though, and with the right coaching, if he's able to hone his athleticism into the new position, he could wind up being a valuable player. The 49ers always seem to love to find great projects to convert and I think Pierre-Louis could be a target. Another target here could be Kentucky ILB Avery Williamson, who LB coach Jim Leavitt reportedly worked with at the combine.

7 (219). Khairi Fortt-LB-Cal, 6-2 248 4.67
I think the 49ers would be very interested in this local product if they see the same similarities as I do to Navarro Bowman. For all his talent, he just didn't produce at Cal. Fortt was a Penn State transfer and like many 49ers draftees, has the coveted attributes of long arms and explosive athletic ability. He is severely unpolished right now but overall, he's a great athlete that needs lots of work and he would immediately compete to be a contributor on special teams while he develops as a linebacker. Fortt could potentially play inside or outside, but he may be better suited inside for the 3-4.

7 (220). Spencer Long-OG-Nebraska, 6-4 320 5.16
Another 49ers injury special. Take a chance on a potential big time performer who had a bad injury. Low risk, high reward again.

7 (222). Chris Martin-OT-Central Florida, 6-5 303 4.98
49ers have taken a developmental OL late in each of the past three drafts. Martin is a TE to OT convert with great athleticism. Has a lot of things to improve on, but is immenseley talented with much upside. Character flags hurt him too, but he is worth a look based on his abilities and potential to develop into a solid NFL player.
Love & agree with the Martavias Bryant pick. I do believe he would be a great situational player in the way we used Moss or how the Ravens used Torrie Smith in his 1st couple years.
I tend to agree with WR in the 1st/3rd (one with RZ potential and one with ST abilities) and some under-the-radar DBs in the mid-late rounds. Gaines/Aikens/Desir/Cockrell type players.
Originally posted by OnTheClock:

SCENARIO: MINOR TRADE UP

49ers trade their 1st (30) and 3rd (94) to move into the Top 25 to select...



1 (20-25). Marqise Lee-WR-USC, 6-0 192 4.52
Lee and everyone else who saw him play healthy knows he not only has much better than 4.52 field speed, he possess top-notch quickness in the open field to make defenders miss and turn shorter plays into long ones. Lee missed three games this year due to injuries and clearly wasn't himself all season. With defenses game planning against him, the odds were even less in his favor. On a positive note, Lee showed up big in the team's bowl game where he had about 120 yards and 2 TDs. Looking into Lee's apparent reputation for being injury prone reveals those who hold that opinion really haven't followed him. This was his only season where he battled injuries. Other notes: Lee is not exactly a powerful blocker, but effort-wise he does a great job. Lee is not the strongest player on the field, but but he is an explosive playmaker who would likely excel in the slot with Crabtree, Boldin, and Vernon drawing coverage away. Adding him would reunite him with his former WR coach, John Morton, who coached Lee as a freshman.


OTC, Ive been beating this drum for awhile, maybe you can provide your opinion.

How do Lee and Patton compare? Their measurables are almost identical.
  • pd24
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 2,038
Too much talent in this draft to trade a 3rd to move 5 or 10 spots for Lee. I would do the 4th, but we can get a good rotation player and eventual starter with that 3rd round pick. This is a deep draft.
I just am not sold on Easley, especially in the 2nd round of a very deep draft. Maybe late 3rd or 4th round. 2 big time injuries kinda of scares me. Could be wrong but I just don't have a good feeling about him. We could probably draft Tuitt in round 1 without moving up or another DL and use that 2nd round pick on another receiver like Moncrief and still have our 3rd round pick to add another player or even Easley if he is still on the board.
Originally posted by pd24:
Too much talent in this draft to trade a 3rd to move 5 or 10 spots for Lee. I would do the 4th, but we can get a good rotation player and eventual starter with that 3rd round pick. This is a deep draft.

I agree,No More USC BUSTS,perfer Beckman,Benjamin,Matthews,Moncreif,or Cooks.but please no Lee-injury prone.
I like the positions you hit, and the strategy, just not all the players.

Like the CB picks, although i think we will take one before the third.

Glad to see im not the only one that still thinks we will address the oline.
very unrealistic mock, 49ers taking a local guy in the draft? Nope.

I like it, would prefer a CB in the 3rd though.
Originally posted by jrouter4949:
Originally posted by pd24:
Too much talent in this draft to trade a 3rd to move 5 or 10 spots for Lee. I would do the 4th, but we can get a good rotation player and eventual starter with that 3rd round pick. This is a deep draft.

I agree,No More USC BUSTS,perfer Beckman,Benjamin,Matthews,Moncreif,or Cooks.but please no Lee-injury prone.

Wouldn't be a Baalke draft without ticking off some people initially. Like I have tried to indicate before, these are not my personal picks. These are my forecasted targets, based on historical data, trends, and our current reported team interests.

Baalke is known for overreaching (he did it with Anthony Davis) when it might not have been necessary, when he really wants a player. I am projecting him to trade up at some point in this draft.
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Originally posted by jrouter4949:
Originally posted by pd24:
Too much talent in this draft to trade a 3rd to move 5 or 10 spots for Lee. I would do the 4th, but we can get a good rotation player and eventual starter with that 3rd round pick. This is a deep draft.

I agree,No More USC BUSTS,perfer Beckman,Benjamin,Matthews,Moncreif,or Cooks.but please no Lee-injury prone.

Wouldn't be a Baalke draft without ticking off some people initially. Like I have tried to indicate before, these are not my personal picks. These are my forecasted targets, based on historical data, trends, and our current reported team interests.

Baalke is known for overreaching (he did it with Anthony Davis) when it might not have been necessary, when he really wants a player. I am projecting him to trade up at some point in this draft.

I like your draft, though I wonder why you have the 49ers passing on a DB earlier in the draft? It seems to me the most talent-depleted unit on the 49ers is the secondary.

I believe the 49ers have to be moving up in this years draft. Everyone wants SF to retain picks, but their roster is so loaded why would they waste picks that will be released later? With that in mind I believe San Francisco is in an ideal position to move up and grab the guy it wants from the 15-25 range as needed. It could further move up in into the 2nd and then look to trade a pick or two away for some extras in next years draft. Who knows. What Baalke definitely will have this year is big-time flexibility to achieve the goals it WANTS to achieve.

My only hesitation on Lee is that he seems like a boom or bust type of prospect. That said, I am not a scout, nor have I watched tons of film on the guy either.
I love pretty much all your picks but I would rather have odell beckham or brandon cooks with that first pick!!!!
Nice post as always, OTC.....and I like the reasoning behind your picks. Not sure if the Niners will trade up for this particular WR but I agree that they will go after guys they like and I also think a trade-up is likely...for an impact receiver or CB.

I also like Bryant a lot as well as the 2 corners you listed.

My only real issue with this group is the lack of a QB selection. Somewhere, I see the team taking one...

Cheers!

P.S. Isn't Chris Martin the lead singer of Coldplay? Man...that dude sure has put on a lot of weight!
I also don't care for Lee, there is better talent to be had in my opinion. Any of the top SEC guys or Cooks, for example.
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
1 (20-25). Marqise Lee-WR-USC, 6-0 192 4.52
Fine.

2 (56). Dominique Easley-DE-Florida, 6-2 288 4.93
Way too high. I don't care about his determination whatsoever. Two torn ACL, though "fortunately" in each knee instead of in the same knee twice. That screams "injury-prone"...end of the 3rd at the very earliest.

2 (61). Martavis Bryant-WR-Clemson, 6-4 211 4.42
Speechless. I wouldn't even take another Stephen Hill ever again.

3 (77). Philip Gaines-CB-Rice, 6-0 193 4.38
Very fine. Seems to be quick AND fast.

4 (125). Walt Aikens-CB-Liberty, 6-1 203 4.47
Fine.

4 (TBD). Bryan Stork-C-Florida State, 6-4 315 5.20
Can't complain because I've picked him in my mock, too. Deleted him later though.

5 (158). Kevin Pierre-Louis-SS-Boston College. 6-0 232 4.51
A project who could sit and learn from Bethea for 1-3 seasons. Fine.

7 (219). Khairi Fortt-LB-Cal, 6-2 248 4.67
Fine.

7 (220). Spencer Long-OG-Nebraska, 6-4 320 5.16
Fine.

7 (222). Chris Martin-OT-Central Florida, 6-5 303 4.98
Athletic? very fine.

Grade: C+
Lee is fine overall but taking an injury-prone DE in the 2nd is a huge reach, imho. I'd rather try to get Tuitt or Hageman in the first-round and go for a WR in the 2nd round.
Then you've picked Bryant. Imo, he is more of an athlete than a football player, a huge project. Even "worse" than Stephen Hill, who was the #1 target in a run-heavy offense at least, iirc.
I like the Gaines-pick very much. Pleased with day 3 completely.
[ Edited by communist on Mar 18, 2014 at 7:01 AM ]