Kiper mocks Mack to Texans at #1,

Originally posted by Gore_21:
Plus when you do 100 different mocks and change them up every time you can say after their pick "I at one point had ___ going with ____." So if he has the Texans picking Bridgewater in one, Manziel in another, Bortles in another, Clowney in another, Barr, Mack, etc he can say after their pick I at one point had the Texans taking ___ (whoever they pick) so he justifies himself as being right.

lol this, these draft "experts" never know who's going 2 get picked they are just guessing like the rest of us

Originally posted by VPofCarnage:

Pro day times are completely unreliable. They're hand-timed, whereas the combine is done electronically. And there are other factors like running outside VS inside, especially fast surfaces, etc.

The combine makes everything uniform, so they're the only times worth citing in order to compare one guy's time to another guy's. A guy doesn't get 2 tenths faster in a matter of a few weeks.

I agree with the first part, but sometimes a player like Barr just has 2 slow attempts at the combine and crushing his time at the pro day combined with tape can help people determine he is faster than his combine time. A player's 40 time between attempts at the combine can vary by 0.1 seconds or so so it's possible Barr just had bad attempts at the combine and ran the combine equivalent of a 4.54 at his pro day. De'anthony Thomas is another player who looked faster in games than his 40 time at the combine.

I wouldn't put absolute faith in the combine time as a measure of speed or even 40 time because there is some variance when players run it and the official times don't always seem accurate when you look at players running simultaneously (players with the same official time finish far enough apart to represent multiple hundreds of a second).

Originally posted by Amir:
his and everyones mock will change about 4,596,528,412 times before draft day.

And, like every year, you can't foresee teams trading up/down. No one had us taking Reid last year and understandably so. Put the mock down and enjoy your freedom.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
Wrong - he ran an unofficial 4.54 at his pro day. One scout times him at 4.45 but the consensus was 4.53-4.55. Anthony Barr ran in the 4.4's at UCLA's pro day and was timed at 4.44 so that is probably who you are thinking of. You should really only compare combine times because pro day times are sometimes suspiciously fast and people immediately publish articles based on one scout's time even when it's not accurate. The 4.54 for Mack was expected based on his combine time so I still consider him slower than Clowney. Barr showed that he is faster than his combine time which a lot of people thought anyways.

You're right. He did run a 4.54 but that doesn't diminish my perception of him. I'll agree that maybe articles are posted to hastily like the day of or the day after, but regardless Mack had a full second of improvement, and you can't just ignore that. He was a 1/10 of second slower than Clowney. Pro-days work better for some kids because working out on campus is much more comfortable.

In the case of Mack this would make perfect sense considering was relatively under the radar during his time at Buffalo. The combine with the reporters, legends of the game, and star college players most definitely caught Mack off guard. Scouts wouldn't just start raising Macks stock for no reason. He performed very well at the combine, and clearly impressed the scouting community. It wouldn't make sense to disregard his pro-day.

It's important to note that Clowney and Mack had the same 10 yard split. Mack had a better broad jump and vertical. If you watch Macks tape you see a complete prospect. He's cerebral and patient. He mixes up inside and outside rushes with relative ease. He has a repertoire of pass rushing moves. And he knows how to put it all together. Mack is playing chess. When you objectively look at the combine/pro-day performances Mack at the very least makes a strong argument for a top 5 pick based on the fact that he looks better than Clowney in almost every area.

It's not like Clowneys unblockable with just one guy. If you really watch his tape he's catching tackles off guard because they have never faced a size/speed/strength combo and make very poor technique decisions which Clowney eats up. The floor will be much higher in the pros, and most NFL blocking schemes are doubling the designated pass rusher anyways so it's not like he's going to completely alter the face of the game. At points during the 2013 season Clowney was pretty awful too. He doesn't play with passion, and really looks lost when it comes to the fundamentals. Not to mention his style is a huge liability in run defense because his ears are always back.

Ultimately the world has seen plenty of guys with his physical attributes, and frankly Clowney didn't live up to the buzz surrounding him when he got out of high school.

As you can see I'm not totally convinced that Clowney is just miles ahead of Mack.

I like comparing these guys to 2 very good prospects from 2011.

Mack = slightly worse version of Von Miller (doesn't have the speed or agility). Similar size - Mack is 5 pounds heavier and his arms are 33 1/4" compared to 33 1/2" for Miller. Neither of them were known for their coverage ability but Mack should be a 3 down player immediately like Miller.

Clowney = better version of Aldon Smith (much better athlete - the one big advantage Smith has is arm length (35 3/8"), but Clowney also has very long arms at 34 1/2" and is a few pounds heavier. I don't think Clowney will be restricted to being a 3rd down player but like Smith, he needs more work as a run defender. I also think Clowney's playing weight was higher than his combine weight so he may be a better fit as a 4-3 DE.

Honestly, I've never seen a guy almost 270 pounds as explosive as Clowney. Mack may be as explosive but he weighs 15 pounds less - he had a better vertical and broad jump, but Clowney looks like he has the better first step on tape even if they had the same 10 yard split one time.

I agree with you that Mack should be a top 5 pick because he's a great all around player, plays hard, and is a very good athlete. I still think Clowney is clearly the number one prospect in the draft followed by Robinson and then Watkins.

I would rank Mack as the best linebacker in the class but he's not as good a prospect as Von Miller. He looks like a player who can come in and be a 3 down player as a rookie, but he doesn't quite have the freak athleticism (for his size) of a Clowney or Miller and he isn't as potentially great at one thing like Aldon Smith was as a pass rusher (his arms are much shorter and Smith was still developing physically). Barr is closer to Mack than Mack is to Clowney in my opinion because Barr is at least as athletic (same 40 at the combine, better at his pro day, faster on tape, better 3 cone, worse vertical and broad jump) and was very productive despite having limited experience at linebacker which is a good sign that he plays hard and may have some untapped potential.

If 2 quarterbacks are chosen in the top 5, it may push Mack to the Falcons which would be a really nice pickup for them, but I'm still not sold on teams liking any of these QB's enough to take them in the top 5 (maybe Bridgewater). I think Clowney compares favorably to Aldon Smith - I don't like that he did not play hard all the time this season, but I understand why he may not have and I think he played harder than people realize but the lack of production was more of a function of him getting double teamed with RB's also focusing on him if he got through the double team. His stamina is a little bit of a concern, but most players who face constant double teams get tired. Clowney had a huge impact on his defense purely from the attention he occupied from opposing linemen and RB's.

I can see Mack being a very good all around player for a long time but not dominant in any particular area. Clowney could be the best pass rusher in the league and in my opinion his floor is almost as high as Mack's (I can't see him being worse than he was this season which was still a dominant player in the SEC who made his defense much better).

I love how the pro day 40 times are always faster. The secret....38 yards.

Originally posted by Murphys1:

I love how the pro day 40 times are always faster. The secret....38 yards.

Nah - it's the fact that they are hand timed and on different surfaces in different conditions (wind - track times aren't even counted as official with high tail winds but 40 times are) as VP pointed out. I love how players don't realize this and try to claim that they were more comfortable running on their own field when really they ran the exact same 40 time but it was just hand timed faster. It seems like most players think they are a good 0.2 seconds faster than they really are so they look for excuses for their combine. Benjamin irritated me saying he would run a 4.4 because I believed him .