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Quality more important than Quantity in the draft

Originally posted by CorvaNinerFan:
Don't know that they need to trade up...Cooks or Beckham should be there at #30. Let's say they want Cooks...if Baalke feels somebody else might pick him, he won't hesistate to trade up (likely NTE 5 spots up). I like Cooks over Beckham primarily because of his tremendous production. He also looks more stout, which helps. I see Beckham more like Manningham and we know how banged up he's been. I agree with your overall draft assessment...given Lattimore, Carradine, Marquardt, Ian Williams, Dial should be on the active roster. I'd much rather have 6-7 blue-chippers than 11-12 guys, at least half of whom won't sniff the roster. PS could change a bit, but it's pretty strong already.

Manningham tore his MCL and PCL...what does that have to do with being "stout" or not?
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Who cares? Gilbert is not that much better of a prospect than a guy like Fuller who can be had without trading up. People are going nuts over him because of the Combine which is a huge mistake. Pryor is a decent safety prospect but nothing to write home about and with the 49ers likely re-signing Pryor, they can afford to take a guy to develop over a year or two behind Whitner. Dennard I think is an outstanding prospect, a potential shutdown corner in the NFL but when the strength of the draft is the CB position, I can't justify trading up for him.


You also have to accept that draft picks will be able to replace guys that are currently on the roster, guys like Baldwin and others are not guaranteed to be on the roster, not to mention the 8 or 9 free agents that will be walking from the 49ers. I can see the 49ers adding about 8 or 9 players through the draft.

Last year a whole bunch of people posted on here about how the 49ers weren't going to draft a lot of players and how they were going to trade away a lot of their picks to move up and they would take 5 or 6 players at most and they still ended up drafting 9 or 10 guys. In the NFL, you have to replenish your roster and replace talent on a yearly basis, planning for 2-3 years down the road, not just the following year.


1.) Gilbert is arguably the best cover corner and punt/kick Returner in the draft.

2.) I didn't take into account free agency either.

3.) Niners drafted 3 injured players and traded up 3 times, giving away multiple picks. They also had 2 7th rounders stolen from them via practice squad.
Originally posted by WRATHman44:
The counterpoint to this concept is to draft more players than we have spots for, and have them compete for roster survival. This would increase pressure on rookies, as well as many vets. I think either method has merit, and the deciding factor between the two should be the confidence the FO has in the options that are available when we pick.

Wrathman, always with the thoughtful post.

One must also consider Baalke strengths' in drafting.

1.) Targeting players and moving up to get them, Reid, Kaepernick, Lemonier.

2.) Drafting late round picks or signing UDFA'S. See Ian Williams, Celek, Cooper, Dobbs, TJE, etc.

3.) Draft and stash of injured players. Joe Looney, last year's draft.


He's excelled in doing it this way, so I want to see him do it this way again.
Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:
The problem is that acquiring depth is not the Niners' issue. Their main issue is to find starters in two prime areas, cornerback and wide receiver. Considering the talent already in these positions, trading up will likely be necessary to find someone ready to start with more talent than those in place. Standing pat with the starters that got the Niners to the championship game is safe, but not to take the chance at finding more productive players handicaps chances for admission into the Super Bowl. Another reason to trade up for a wide receiver is that Baalke has not been good at selecting receivers; trading up will lessen his subjectivity and rely more on consensus value.

Also, teams can't stockpile players for two or three years down the road (except for injured players). Players have to be able to play now, at least on special teams, which will take considerable talent to replace those already there, or they get cut. Lastly, acquiring a quantity of picks that will force talented players off the roster will help only other teams, particularly those with fewer selections in the draft.

To speak to your point (and to echo WildBill a bit), the draft is as scientific as it can be, but there are intangible variables that always seem to manifest themselves every year. Frank Gore's reconstructed knees should not allow the cuts or aggressive body angles he has maintained through a nine year career. Steve Smith should not win contested 50/50 balls. No one in the league knew Victor Cruz would be the star that he has been. The whole league missed on him. The number of late round stars that have emerged throughout the game indicate that this particular phenomenon is not isolated, nor is it likely to go away. More picks increases your odds of finding a star. It is a question of approach. If you are dead-on certain that a player will be a star in your system, get him. If you feel good about a guy, and you can get two guys that you feel about as good about, why not get the the two guys and see if one of them ends up bringing out something special. It's shotgun vs sniper rifle: you can spray shot everywhere and eventually hit something, or you can choose one target and get it. Both methods have been shown to work, both methods have been shown to fail. I think the key is the certainty you feel towards a prospect. If EVERYTHING indicates he will be a star (above and beyond his peers), then it is worth risking other draft capital to get him. If no one grants you that near certainty, increase your odds by giving yourself more chances to win.


Originally posted by Garlicboy:
Wrathman, always with the thoughtful post.

One must also consider Baalke strengths' in drafting.

1.) Targeting players and moving up to get them, Reid, Kaepernick, Lemonier.

2.) Drafting late round picks or signing UDFA'S. See Ian Williams, Celek, Cooper, Dobbs, TJE, etc.

3.) Draft and stash of injured players. Joe Looney, last year's draft.


He's excelled in doing it this way, so I want to see him do it this way again.

Thanks for the compliment. I think we also need to include another frequent Baalke draft strategy: trading back in a round (or even out of a round) for future picks, combined with later picks. In 2012, he traded back twice with the same pick, getting us two future picks and a mid round pick, before completely trading out of the pick for an additional future pick, IIRC. That move by itself set up much of our strength in the 2013 draft. I think he got Looney with the 2012 mid rounder that he ended up with and eventually used. I am not a particular advocate for either strategy, as I see the value in both, acknowledging that the FO has much more information regarding these guys than I do. I didn't think Reid was special enough to be worth a trade up last year, but Baalke did, and he was right. No other safety in the 2013 class could have given the 49ers what Reid did, IMO. I wanted Tank at 30, and Baalke traded back from KC's 2nd (getting us a pick in this draft) and got him anyway. Both methods used in the same draft. Both, IMO, successful.
Looking at your 2014 Team Needs thread in NT, I have these as our Top Tier needs where we certainly want to look at quality over quantity.

CB - We have Tramaine Brock, Tarell Brown, Carlos Rogers, Perrish Cox, Chris Culliver, Eric Wright and Darryl Morris. Again, like the DE position, we seem stacked on the surface but TB is up for FA and CR is making way too much money and has seemed to taper off a lot. Culliver is a big question mark coming off the injury and Darryl Morris and Eric Wright barely saw the field. Cox was a late add but played fairly well for us on the fly. We will probably go a top CB here and slowly develop him esp. if he has return abilities. Ideally, Culliver regains form and he and Brock light up the NFL with Morris quickly developing as a great slot CB with a top-tier rookie developing as the #4 to push both Brock and Culliver in the future. Don't expect to see another Marcus Cooper this go-round though.
S - Donte Whitner and Eric Reid had a good-to-great first year together but both were exposed in coverage during the playoffs (pattern for Whitner). We just restructured Craig Dahl as some insurance and C.J. Spillman is an excellent ST player. Trenton Robinson doesn't seem like he'll stick here. I have a feeling we'll spend a top pick for S this year and he'll be more of the mold of a FS with tremendous football IQ, range and coverage ability (ala Reid last year). Whitner's contract or willingness to hit FA may affect the draft approach here but probably not. They need a quality back-up here with tremendous upside as Reid had 2 concussions last year and we desperately need coverage ability on the back end esp. come playoff time.
FB - We currently have Bruce Miller and Anthony Dixon. Last year I was screaming for Jason Scheplar to make the team...then was happy when we brought in Owen Marecic. In the end, we let both go and Miller got hurt and our running game (and partial receiving game) tanked esp. in the playoffs. Will we make the same mistake again?
C - Right now, our OL QB is Jonathan Goodwin but he's not expected to be back. Daniel Kilgore (resigned LT) and Joe Looney have been training all year for a shot to start here (Looney, mostly at G) so don't be surprised if we make a run at the best C in the draft or even bring in another via FA like we did with Goodwin.

There could be very good cases for DL and WR (return abilities could = Top Tier need) as well but both would be addressed in the 2nd round on (i.e. Donte Moncrief) or even another IR-player. Also, FB and C can be addressed later in the draft (from the 3rd on).

So really, at the end of the day, we need quality starters for this year (or next) at CB & S only primarly b/c they are on defense esp. if Whitner walks. On offense, we potentially need a WR or two (one big-body and one with speed and return abilities), a C and a FB. On offense, we typically "develop" these guys very slowly so look for their contributions next year sprinkled in with a few snaps this year (minus injuries, of course).
Originally posted by NCommand:
Looking at your 2014 Team Needs thread in NT, I have these as our Top Tier needs where we certainly want to look at quality over quantity.

CB - We have Tramaine Brock, Tarell Brown, Carlos Rogers, Perrish Cox, Chris Culliver, Eric Wright and Darryl Morris. Again, like the DE position, we seem stacked on the surface but TB is up for FA and CR is making way too much money and has seemed to taper off a lot. Culliver is a big question mark coming off the injury and Darryl Morris and Eric Wright barely saw the field. Cox was a late add but played fairly well for us on the fly. We will probably go a top CB here and slowly develop him esp. if he has return abilities. Ideally, Culliver regains form and he and Brock light up the NFL with Morris quickly developing as a great slot CB with a top-tier rookie developing as the #4 to push both Brock and Culliver in the future. Don't expect to see another Marcus Cooper this go-round though.
S - Donte Whitner and Eric Reid had a good-to-great first year together but both were exposed in coverage during the playoffs (pattern for Whitner). We just restructured Craig Dahl as some insurance and C.J. Spillman is an excellent ST player. Trenton Robinson doesn't seem like he'll stick here. I have a feeling we'll spend a top pick for S this year and he'll be more of the mold of a FS with tremendous football IQ, range and coverage ability (ala Reid last year). Whitner's contract or willingness to hit FA may affect the draft approach here but probably not. They need a quality back-up here with tremendous upside as Reid had 2 concussions last year and we desperately need coverage ability on the back end esp. come playoff time.
FB - We currently have Bruce Miller and Anthony Dixon. Last year I was screaming for Jason Scheplar to make the team...then was happy when we brought in Owen Marecic. In the end, we let both go and Miller got hurt and our running game (and partial receiving game) tanked esp. in the playoffs. Will we make the same mistake again?
C - Right now, our OL QB is Jonathan Goodwin but he's not expected to be back. Daniel Kilgore (resigned LT) and Joe Looney have been training all year for a shot to start here (Looney, mostly at G) so don't be surprised if we make a run at the best C in the draft or even bring in another via FA like we did with Goodwin.

There could be very good cases for DL and WR (return abilities could = Top Tier need) as well but both would be addressed in the 2nd round on (i.e. Donte Moncrief) or even another IR-player. Also, FB and C can be addressed later in the draft (from the 3rd on).

So really, at the end of the day, we need quality starters for this year (or next) at CB & S only primarly b/c they are on defense esp. if Whitner walks. On offense, we potentially need a WR or two (one big-body and one with speed and return abilities), a C and a FB. On offense, we typically "develop" these guys very slowly so look for their contributions next year sprinkled in with a few snaps this year (minus injuries, of course).

I'd be comfortable with Brock/Cully Starting and Morris or Cox coming is as the Nickle

Trent Robinson is already gone. I think he was cut in the preseason. I think Whitner is gone, unless the FA market stinks. We don't know how they feel about Spillman as a Safety (great athlete, very good in special teams and as a GL safety, but no idea what he'd be like in coverage). Biggest need to me, but good safeties will be available in the 2nd or 3rd, IMO.

I would look hard at Millard in the late rounds, but FB never go early, so that's easy to swing.

Kilgore's extension indicates that they plan to move forward with him at Center, making this much less of a need to me.

WR seems like our 2nd biggest need to me. I think we need either a tall, big body to catch contested balls in the red zone (and hopefully down the field in regular d&d situations), or a fast guy to stretch the field (and hopefully make our return game more of a threat). Both would be cool, especially since I don't think the $$ will be there to re-up Crab, and WR's benefit more than most positions from having a year to learn the system.
Originally posted by WRATHman44:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Looking at your 2014 Team Needs thread in NT, I have these as our Top Tier needs where we certainly want to look at quality over quantity.

CB - We have Tramaine Brock, Tarell Brown, Carlos Rogers, Perrish Cox, Chris Culliver, Eric Wright and Darryl Morris. Again, like the DE position, we seem stacked on the surface but TB is up for FA and CR is making way too much money and has seemed to taper off a lot. Culliver is a big question mark coming off the injury and Darryl Morris and Eric Wright barely saw the field. Cox was a late add but played fairly well for us on the fly. We will probably go a top CB here and slowly develop him esp. if he has return abilities. Ideally, Culliver regains form and he and Brock light up the NFL with Morris quickly developing as a great slot CB with a top-tier rookie developing as the #4 to push both Brock and Culliver in the future. Don't expect to see another Marcus Cooper this go-round though.
S - Donte Whitner and Eric Reid had a good-to-great first year together but both were exposed in coverage during the playoffs (pattern for Whitner). We just restructured Craig Dahl as some insurance and C.J. Spillman is an excellent ST player. Trenton Robinson doesn't seem like he'll stick here. I have a feeling we'll spend a top pick for S this year and he'll be more of the mold of a FS with tremendous football IQ, range and coverage ability (ala Reid last year). Whitner's contract or willingness to hit FA may affect the draft approach here but probably not. They need a quality back-up here with tremendous upside as Reid had 2 concussions last year and we desperately need coverage ability on the back end esp. come playoff time.
FB - We currently have Bruce Miller and Anthony Dixon. Last year I was screaming for Jason Scheplar to make the team...then was happy when we brought in Owen Marecic. In the end, we let both go and Miller got hurt and our running game (and partial receiving game) tanked esp. in the playoffs. Will we make the same mistake again?
C - Right now, our OL QB is Jonathan Goodwin but he's not expected to be back. Daniel Kilgore (resigned LT) and Joe Looney have been training all year for a shot to start here (Looney, mostly at G) so don't be surprised if we make a run at the best C in the draft or even bring in another via FA like we did with Goodwin.

There could be very good cases for DL and WR (return abilities could = Top Tier need) as well but both would be addressed in the 2nd round on (i.e. Donte Moncrief) or even another IR-player. Also, FB and C can be addressed later in the draft (from the 3rd on).

So really, at the end of the day, we need quality starters for this year (or next) at CB & S only primarly b/c they are on defense esp. if Whitner walks. On offense, we potentially need a WR or two (one big-body and one with speed and return abilities), a C and a FB. On offense, we typically "develop" these guys very slowly so look for their contributions next year sprinkled in with a few snaps this year (minus injuries, of course).

I'd be comfortable with Brock/Cully Starting and Morris or Cox coming is as the Nickle

Trent Robinson is already gone. I think he was cut in the preseason. I think Whitner is gone, unless the FA market stinks. We don't know how they feel about Spillman as a Safety (great athlete, very good in special teams and as a GL safety, but no idea what he'd be like in coverage). Biggest need to me, but good safeties will be available in the 2nd or 3rd, IMO.

I would look hard at Millard in the late rounds, but FB never go early, so that's easy to swing.

Kilgore's extension indicates that they plan to move forward with him at Center, making this much less of a need to me.

WR seems like our 2nd biggest need to me. I think we need either a tall, big body to catch contested balls in the red zone (and hopefully down the field in regular d&d situations), or a fast guy to stretch the field (and hopefully make our return game more of a threat). Both would be cool, especially since I don't think the $$ will be there to re-up Crab, and WR's benefit more than most positions from having a year to learn the system.

Danka!

That's interesting as I was just reading (and sticking to this topic), really, the two guys the 49ers should consider jumping up to draft are WR Mike Evans (perfect H-W-S guy plus gold star and play making ability) and CB Justin Gilbert (6'0" CB with elite 4.37 speed AND return abilities). Both are expected to be in the 12-16 range.

So in the end, I have this:

Top Tier:
S - Whitner or not, we need another Reid.
CB/Dynamic Returner - if the player posses both skills and fits our defense perfectly, we'd look at Justin Gilbert (we'd forfeit picks for him)
FB - can get a stellar one much later in the draft
C - could get an insurance policy here and a top C later in the draft to push Kilgore/Looney

Second Tier:
WR/Dynamic Returner - could move up to Top Tier if the player posses both skills or fits our offense perfectly like a Mike Evans (we'd forfeit picks for him)
ILB - need an ILB in training (Willis has been injured some over the past two years and Bowman is on IR)
DE - this may be another perfect situation to get an IR-filler player for a red-shirt year of development
QB - and if CK goes down? We'll need someone with similar skill sets to back up CK.
OT
OG

Third Tier:
RB
TE
NT
OLB
PK
[ Edited by NCommand on Mar 5, 2014 at 3:23 PM ]
People keep saying it will be expensive to move up into the top 20, like a 2nd. I think 49ers again trade with Cowboys and give up early 3rd and get top CB or Safety.
  • DeUh
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Originally posted by Garlicboy:
People keep saying it will be expensive to move up into the top 20, like a 2nd. I think 49ers again trade with Cowboys and give up early 3rd and get top CB or Safety.

I think unless the Cowboys get a safety in free agency they won´t trade back and try to get Calvin Pryor. Their defense stinks and they need a good safety badly !
[ Edited by DeUh on Mar 5, 2014 at 4:08 PM ]
Originally posted by DeUh:
Originally posted by Garlicboy:
People keep saying it will be expensive to move up into the top 20, like a 2nd. I think 49ers again trade with Cowboys and give up early 3rd and get top CB or Safety.

I think unless the Cowboys get a safety in free agency they won´t trade back and try to get Calvin Pryor. Their defense stinks and they need a good safety badly !

Yeah, but they need EVERYTHING, especially if they get stupid and cut DWare after he sh!ts on their request to take a paycut. They need more picks, because they have a bunch of holes. Tough to predict what JJ will do, though. That jackass loves to make a big splash, and that's much easier to do in the 1st round.
Originally posted by DeUh:
Originally posted by Garlicboy:
People keep saying it will be expensive to move up into the top 20, like a 2nd. I think 49ers again trade with Cowboys and give up early 3rd and get top CB or Safety.

I think unless the Cowboys get a safety in free agency they won´t trade back and try to get Calvin Pryor. Their defense stinks and they need a good safety badly !

They needed one last year too, with Reid sitting there. You underestimate the stupidity of Jerry Jones as a GM.
Originally posted by Travisty13:
They needed one last year too, with Reid sitting there. You underestimate the stupidity of Jerry Jones as a GM.

Despite the fact that I think Jerry Jones is an idiot, I have to say that the trade worked out for both teams.
Cowboys got TWO solid players, and filled two needs one at Center and one at WR. 49ers got the best Safety in the draft.

I would be VERY surprised if the 49ers don't move up specifically with the Cowboys. Almost an identical scenario as last year. The only thing I can think of that can prohibit such a trade is the 49ers moving up before the Cowboys #16 pick, or the 49ers moving up into the 20's. However the price w/the Cowboys has already been set a high 3rd. In addition, this draft is supposedly MUCH deeper than last years draft so that 3rd rounder has much more value.
Originally posted by WRATHman44:

Thanks for the compliment. I think we also need to include another frequent Baalke draft strategy: trading back in a round (or even out of a round) for future picks, combined with later picks. In 2012, he traded back twice with the same pick, getting us two future picks and a mid round pick, before completely trading out of the pick for an additional future pick, IIRC. That move by itself set up much of our strength in the 2013 draft. I think he got Looney with the 2012 mid rounder that he ended up with and eventually used. I am not a particular advocate for either strategy, as I see the value in both, acknowledging that the FO has much more information regarding these guys than I do. I didn't think Reid was special enough to be worth a trade up last year, but Baalke did, and he was right. No other safety in the 2013 class could have given the 49ers what Reid did, IMO. I wanted Tank at 30, and Baalke traded back from KC's 2nd (getting us a pick in this draft) and got him anyway. Both methods used in the same draft. Both, IMO, successful.

I agree I think Baalke trades down, but uses the 2nd 2nd rounder or his late 3rd rounder to trade down for future picks or trade away completely for future picks.

I think people will really start to realize just how much value is still left on the board at the end of the 2nd as well as the end of the 3rd and the 49ers should be ready and willing to deal.
Originally posted by WRATHman44:
Originally posted by DeUh:
Originally posted by Garlicboy:
People keep saying it will be expensive to move up into the top 20, like a 2nd. I think 49ers again trade with Cowboys and give up early 3rd and get top CB or Safety.

Wrathman called that one! Demarcus Ware is gone and so is Jason Hatcher! Wonder if Jerry Jones is talking to Baalke as I write. 30 and 74 for 16!


I think unless the Cowboys get a safety in free agency they won�t trade back and try to get Calvin Pryor. Their defense stinks and they need a good safety badly !

Yeah, but they need EVERYTHING, especially if they get stupid and cut DWare after he sh!ts on their request to take a paycut. They need more picks, because they have a bunch of holes. Tough to predict what JJ will do, though. That jackass loves to make a big splash, and that's much easier to do in the 1st round.

Wrathman called that one! Not only did they lose Ware but Hatcher as well. Jerry Jones could be calling Baalke as we post.
Because of the depth in the draft, it would make sense to acquire more middle round picks, but the 49ers don't have alot of needs to fill. I always like the idea of acquiring future picks, but since the 49ers are so close, I'd like to see the immediate needs filled properly before deciding to bulk up next years draft.

So for me, the best decision is to move up and fill immediate needs. I like the idea of moving into the middle of the first, possibly with the Cowboys. Something like #30, #77, 5th rnd to Dallas for 16. We should use the two late 2nd round picks to move back near 30. I think the Redskins at 34 would be willing to acquire more picks in this draft since they have plenty of needs and are short on picks because of the RG3 trade. Even if we dont move up in the first, we could still have 30 and 34. That could leave us with 5 picks in the first 4 rounds and in position to get some immediate contributors and depth. (110 is guess at comp pick, 120 is guess at 4th round pick).

Option 1 - Move up to middle of first, and move up to end of first/early second,
016 - WR - Evans, Lee CB - Dennard, Gilbert
034 - CB - Fuller, Roby, Verret WR - Cooks, Benjamin, Robinson BPA?- Tuitt, Pryor, Hageman
094 -
110 -
120 -

Option 2 - Move up to end of first/early second. From here you can still parlay some picks. 60 for 77 and 94 works on the charts for example.
030 - CB - Fuller, Roby, Verret WR - Cooks, Benjamin, Robinson BPA?- Tuitt, Pryor, Hageman
034 - CB - Fuller, Roby, Verret WR - Cooks, Benjamin, Robinson BPA?- Tuitt, Pryor, Hageman
060 -
110 -
120 -
[ Edited by scooterhd on Mar 14, 2014 at 12:46 PM ]