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Quality more important than Quantity in the draft

Below is a list the 49ers restricted and unrestricted Free agents and random mocked draft possible replacements.
Note: Free Agency or Practice Squad candidates not taken into account as possible Roster replacements

RESIGNED: Michael Wilhoite ILB
Anquan Boldin WR
Phil Dawson K


MAYBE: Donte Whitner S: S: Deone Bucannon or Ahmad Dixon 2nd round


HIGHLY UNLIKELY/Chance to make roster: Tarell Brown CB or- CB Jaylen Watkins/Keith McGill/SJB 3rd round
Colt McCoy QB or- QB Connor Shaw 7th round/UDFA- likely veteran QB
Kassim Osgood WR or - WR Martavis Bryant 3rd round
Perrish Cox CB or- CB Pierre Desir 2nd round

GONE: Jonathan Goodwin C - G/C Weston Richburg 3rd round
Mario Manningham WR- WR: Odell Beckham 1st round

Eric Wright CB or- Chris Culliver
Anthony Dixon RB - Marcus Lattimore
Demarcus Dobbs DE- Tank Carridine

IR: Navorro Bowman for Ian Williams

NFI list: Will compete for Roster spot/Practice Squad (not guaranteed):
* Luke Marquardt
* Lawrence Okoye
* Darius Fleming

What I learned from this exercise:

1.) 49ers have more picks than roster spots. I only used first 3 rounds to fill roster spots and FREE Agency wasn't a factor except at Back-up QB.
2.) 1st 6 picks in first 3 rounds I drafted 2 WR's, 2 CB's, S and Lineman. Hit EVERY position of need, some 2x's. and still have 6 picks left. CRAZY!
2.) Supposed draft needs like DE/DT & RB are not needs with NFI list players healthy: Dial, Lattimore, Carridine, Okoye, consider them extra draft picks.
3.) There are little to no roster spots available meaning we will either cut a proven veteran Example: Dan Skuta or our mid-late round draft picks, trade and/or...
4.) 49ers WILL DRAFT INJURED PLAYERS TO REPLENISH NFI LIST AND STASH PLAYERS ON ROSTER- cry if you want but they did this last 2 drafts...
5.) Expect the following to be drafted or signed as UDFA: Aaron Murray, Aaron Colvin, Trey Millard, Spencer Long, Chris Whaley, Nickoe Whitley, etc.
6.) Who was excited about Bubba Ventrone making the team last year! I didn't cut ST players. Not exciting but Special Teams is important.
7.) I didn't cut back-ups who restructured their contracts: S Craig Dahl and WR Jon Baldwin. Restructuring makes them less likely to be cut, lowers salary cap.

CONCULSION

49ers roster is compromised of Pro Bowlers, cheap solid proven veterans, talent/potential filled youngsters and solid Special Teamers/Back-ups. Thus, I will be SHOCKED if they 49ers don't trade up and make a HUGE splash! Expect a move up in the draft in the 1st or 2nd rounds or both.

I expect them to move up and draft CB Justin Gilbert or WR Brandin Cooks or Marquise Lee and/or move up in the 2nd to draft a top S/WR.

http://www.49ers.com/team/roster.html
[ Edited by Garlicboy on Mar 2, 2014 at 2:11 PM ]
Renamed the title. Who do you think the 49ers will move up to draft?
Originally posted by Garlicboy:
Renamed the title. Who do you think the 49ers will move up to draft?

Why move up when the draft flattens out after the first 15 or so...lots of starter material in round 2. As I said in a different thread, I wish we had 7 picks in rounds 2 and 3, and we'd do fine. Unless we can get a guy like Watkins, let's just get 4 or 5 future starters and hope one or two develop into stars.
Really good post.

Ventrone was an absolute sparkplug!

Ossgood was also EXCELLENT on ST - Since he was such a big contributor I feel he'll be resigned.
I'm with you on drafting Connor Shaw. He's the only QB prospect in this draft who even remotely interests me. The rest of 'em will be taken too high, and none of 'em realy stand out to me anyway.
Possible but the 49ers could track another way. They could go d-Line in round 1 like a Stephen Tuitt and still have plenty of picks in rounds 2 and 3 to get high quality WR's and CB's and a safety to fill needs. They could pick up a quality C to back up Kilgore late in round 3 or in round 4.

If Whitner resigns I would think a safety in round 3 or 4 to groom would be likely such as a Loston or Branch.

I would take our later picks and use them for pup list guys or a specailist like a good return man (Dri Archer type) or trade them for 2015 picks a round earlier or a player we have targeted that falls.

With so many picks and several areas of need the options are all ours. This should be the most interesting 49ers draft in a decade.
Originally posted by Murphys1:
Why move up when the draft flattens out after the first 15 or so...lots of starter material in round 2. As I said in a different thread, I wish we had 7 picks in rounds 2 and 3, and we'd do fine. Unless we can get a guy like Watkins, let's just get 4 or 5 future starters and hope one or two develop into stars.

A little early to state the draft flattens out after first 15 picks as no one knows who the first 15 picks are going to be. Move up because as I explained they simply lack the roster spots to keep more than 5 or 6 rookies. Thus why I am also a proponent of drafting injured players because they will be on the NFI list and not the active roster.
They really almost have to trade up. Maybe twice. I would deal a 1 and 2 to move higher in the first. Like last year they get Eric Reid at #18. I think #18 or #17 or something between 17 - 25 is really reachable with all the picks we have and would be better than what we have at #30. Then you get a 2nd still. It's a late 2nd. Ours or K.C. I say package a 4th plus the 2nd and move up. Get a much higher 2nd. Somebody always slides to the 2nd that shouldn't. If you wait until late 2nd the player will be gone. I really think trading up MULTIPLE times is the way to go for the 49ers this year. So many picks, a complete roster with not too many spots. Quality is far more important than Quantity IMO.
I'm in favor of trading up when you have one glaring need that needs to be filled. Last year the FS spot was a glaring need, and we did well to trade up for Reid. Might see something similar this year if the front office sees an impact CB or WR that can be a gamechanger. I can't see us trading up for any other positions.

At the same time, we're starting to see a high amount of turnover with guys leaving via free agency. One of these drafts we need to save up picks and draft for quantity. Your chances at success is higher that way anyhow. It's like throwing darts. The more darts you have, the more chances you get at hitting a bullseye.
Great post, I think of this draft 2 ways, one as a great way to upgrade the overall depth with high quality players in a deep draft in which we have a ton of picks AND like you said, a perfect opportunity to trade up and get our guy early once or twice. IMO we can do a little of both, I think we get the CB we want (please Justin Gilbert) and the WR we want. Then with the amount of picks we have, we'll take BPA throughout the rest of the draft and improve the overall depth and talent on the roster. Can't wait for the draft to shake out.
Agreed. I'd move up a few times in this draft and get guys to make an impact now
Thank you captain obvious...

Just because they have a talented roster and a lot of draft picks doesn't mean they should trade up just because.

We may have a good amount of pro bowlers as starters but the team has to look ahead to guys getting order/retiring or leaving via FA. The smart move is to stay at least one year ahead of having to replace a starter.

You can have quality AND quantity. Odds are very slim that they'll use all 12 of their picks but they're not going to trade up just because or give away more than value dictates for those trades.

I expect them to trade up/into teh 2nd or 3rd rounds. Outside of Gilbert, Dennard and Pryor there really aren't any guys worth moving up for.
Originally posted by genus49:
Thank you captain obvious...

Just because they have a talented roster and a lot of draft picks doesn't mean they should trade up just because.

We may have a good amount of pro bowlers as starters but the team has to look ahead to guys getting order/retiring or leaving via FA. The smart move is to stay at least one year ahead of having to replace a starter.

You can have quality AND quantity. Odds are very slim that they'll use all 12 of their picks but they're not going to trade up just because or give away more than value dictates for those trades.

I expect them to trade up/into teh 2nd or 3rd rounds. Outside of Gilbert, Dennard and Pryor there really aren't any guys worth moving up for.

I said that because in the past two drafts only Reid really made an immediate impact, one guy is a return man from an entire draft. You ain't trading up just because when you trade up for guys that can help now captain obvious
Originally posted by genus49:
Thank you captain obvious...

Just because they have a talented roster and a lot of draft picks doesn't mean they should trade up just because.

We may have a good amount of pro bowlers as starters but the team has to look ahead to guys getting order/retiring or leaving via FA. The smart move is to stay at least one year ahead of having to replace a starter.

You can have quality AND quantity. Odds are very slim that they'll use all 12 of their picks but they're not going to trade up just because or give away more than value dictates for those trades.

I expect them to trade up/into teh 2nd or 3rd rounds. Outside of Gilbert, Dennard and Pryor there really aren't any guys worth moving up for.



This. 49ers need to keep adding players and stacking depth at all positions, its not enough to be content with what you have...NOW, you need to be looking ahead at 2-3 years down the road, at who might be leaving, retiring or who the team might be cutting. I don't see the 49ers as being in a position to just flat out blow picks in a trade up, especially considering that the talent at the top really isn't that much superior. This is a draft that is heavy primarily in the middle rounds, stacked with WR's and CB's, trading up for either one of those positions in a draft this DEEP with them, doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.
Originally posted by genus49:


We may have a good amount of pro bowlers as starters but the team has to look ahead to guys getting order/retiring or leaving via FA. The smart move is to stay at least one year ahead of having to replace a starter.

You can have quality AND quantity. Odds are very slim that they'll use all 12 of their picks...

There are only so many roster spots. Quantity is finite.

You contradict yourself. You only want trading into the 2nd or 3rd round, but that will not yield Gilbert, Dennard or Pryor.