jrouter4949 mock draft

Originally posted by solidg2000:

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Here's I see it right now:

1st rounders
1.) Sammy Watkins (top 5-7)
2.) Mike Evans (top 15)
3.) Marqise Lee (top 20-25)
4.) Brandin Cooks (top 20-25)
5.) Odell Beckham Jr. (top 25-32)
6.) Donte Moncrief (top 28-35)
--------------------------
2nd rounders
7.) Kelvin Benjamin (potential late 1st; likely 2nd)
8.) Jordan Matthews
9.) Davante Adams
10.) Martavis Bryant/Allen Robinson

I could see Benjamin and Matthews going ahead of Beckham. I think Carolina would be especially interested in either one of those guys.

Always a matter of taste, and system fit is key as well, but there's no way I'd take Benjamin or Matthews over Moncrief. Never, ever, ever....

I disagree with your list/taste
You'd really pick someone who's never earned 1000 yards over the sec leader?
Even KB (who I'm not a fan of) broke 1000
How often does that happen

Production and upside are important to me, not just production. IMO, Moncrief had very good production in the SEC as a junior (7th in catches, 5th in yards, tied for 5th in TD catches), but he wasn't their main target this year. Laquon Treadwell the freshman big-time recruit was the go-to guy for Bo Wallace (72 catches), but he didn't average very much (8.44 YPC)...and Wallace had one of the lowest yards per attempt of any QB in the SEC. When he looked deep, he went to Moncrief, but most often checked it down to Treadwell.

If you put Moncrief on LSU with Zach Mettenberger as his QB, he would've put up Alshon Jeffrey-type numbers.

But more importantly, it's the fact that Matthews and Moncrief are very different. Let's face it, Matthews is more of a possession WR...he's a very good possession WR, but a possession WR nonetheless. JM (112) had nearly double the catches of Moncrief (59) in his senior season, but only 1 more TD than Moncrief, and that's mostly due to Matthews' bowl game against the 110th pass defense in the country where he had 5 catches, 143 yards and 2 TDs. He ran through Houston like they weren't even there. But before that, Matthews hadn't had a TD catch since week 6, meaning he went through the heart of the SEC schedule and only caught 1 TD pass against Mizzou in week 6...followed by 6 scoreless games until he feasted on Houston.

By contrast, Moncrief had a huge game against the eventual national runner-up Auburn (6 catches, 122 yards and 2 TD catches). He also had big games against SEC opponents LSU, Arkansas and Missouri. Like Matthews though, he padded his stats in his bowl game against a poor GT pass defense.

But the number that stands out to me is TD catches per reception. Matthews catches a TD every 11 receptions, while Moncrief catches a TD on every 7 receptions. So if I'm looking for a possession-type WR, Matthews would be ideal. But if I'm looking for an explosive, downfield threat with great size and top-end speed, the 6'2", 220lb 4.40 speedster with a nearly 40" vertical jump dude is my guy.

Thus, Moncrief is my guy.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Vanderbilt had like two viable receivers every year that Matthews was there, Benjamin played with the Heisman trophy winner, context is everything.

Yeah that's so wrong
Matthews had no one, Moncrief had the better supporting cast
Matthews carried the WRs

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:

Production and upside are important to me, not just production. IMO, Moncrief had very good production in the SEC, but he wasn't their main target this year. Treadwell the freshman was the guy that Bo Wallace looked for mostly (72 catches), but he didn't average very much (8.44 YPC)...and Wallace had one of the lowest yards per attempt of any QB in the SEC. Meaning, when he looked deep, he went to Mocrief, but most often checked it down to Treadwell.

If you put Moncrief on LSU with Zach Mettenberger as his QB, he would've put up Alshon Jeffrey-type numbers.

But more importantly, it's the fact that Matthews and Moncrief are very different. Let's face it, Matthews is more of a possession WR...he's a very good possession WR, but a possession WR nonetheless. JM (112) had nearly double the catches of Moncrief (59) in his senior season, but only 1 more TD than Moncrief, and that's mostly due to Matthews' bowl game against the 110th pass defense in the country where he had 5 catches, 143 yards and 2 TDs. He ran through Houston like they weren't even there. But before that, Matthews hadn't had a TD catch since week 6, meaning he went through the heart of the SEC schedule and only caught 1 TD pass against Mizzou in week 6...followed by 6 scoreless games until he feasted on Houston.

By contrast, Moncrief had a huge game against the eventual national runner-up Auburn (6 catches, 122 yards and 2 TD catches). He also had big games against SEC opponents LSU, Arkansas and Missouri. Like Matthews though, he padded his stats in his bowl game against a poor GT pass defense.

But the number that stands out to me is TD catches per reception. Matthews catches a TD every 11 receptions, while Moncrief catches a TD on every 7 receptions. So if I'm looking for a possession-type WR, Matthews would be ideal. But if I'm looking for an explosive, downfield threat with great size and top-end speed, the 6'2", 220lb 4.40 speedster with a nearly 40" vertical jump, Moncrief is my guy.

Thus, Moncrief is my guy.

Yes but Vanderbilt had crap at QB
The QBs threw 15, 17, and 15 TDs his last 3 seasons
As opposed to Miss 9, 24, and 24 TD passes the last 3 seasons

Wallace played a lot more conservatively this year, throwing nearly 70 more passes but 4 less TDs and a lower average per attempt. In Wallace's first year as their starter, he was more aggressive and it showed with Moncrief being 6th in the SEC in catches and 3rd in TD receptions with 10. No disrespect to Matthews, but for all his catches, he's never hit double-digit TD receptions. Matthews with 262 has more than 100 career receptions than does Moncrief (156) but has only 4 more TD receptions, and Matthews played all 4 years compared to DM's 3.

Very different WR types, is my point.

Originally posted by MC9BEAT:
I think we could trade back and still get Moncrief. Right now he looks like he will go anywhere from 45-65.

remember this is based on a draft simulator,not what I would pick willy nilly,it is based on a real draft where other players are off the board when the niners pick at 30th...go to fanspeak.com and draft your players and see IF Moncreif is there in the 2nd round when the Niners pick,especially after the 40 time He ran at the combine.

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Here's I see it right now:

1st rounders
1.) Sammy Watkins (top 5-7)
2.) Mike Evans (top 15)
3.) Marqise Lee (top 20-25)
4.) Brandin Cooks (top 20-25)
5.) Odell Beckham Jr. (top 25-32)
6.) Donte Moncrief (top 28-35)
--------------------------
2nd rounders
7.) Kelvin Benjamin (potential late 1st; likely 2nd)
8.) Jordan Matthews
9.) Davante Adams
10.) Martavis Bryant/Allen Robinson

I could see Benjamin and Matthews going ahead of Beckham. I think Carolina would be especially interested in either one of those guys.

Always a matter of taste, and system fit is key as well, but there's no way I'd take Benjamin or Matthews over Moncrief. Never, ever, ever....

I agree he is a faster receiver and a god down field blocker as well solid route runner and he has very nice size.

Originally posted by jrouter4949:

Originally posted by MC9BEAT:
I think we could trade back and still get Moncrief. Right now he looks like he will go anywhere from 45-65.

remember this is based on a draft simulator,not what I would pick willy nilly,it is based on a real draft where other players are off the board when the niners pick at 30th...go to fanspeak.com and draft your players and see IF Moncreif is there in the 2nd round when the Niners pick,especially after the 40 time He ran at the combine.

Not sure I would put much stock in that per se. I think it's more about Moncrief flying under most of our radars and not necessarily putting up Madden-like numbers in the SEC. But the closer you look, the more you see a potential #1 WR with Josh Gordon/Michael Floyd/Alshon Jeffrey potential.

The first 5 picks in your draft offer no beef.

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:

Originally posted by jrouter4949:

Originally posted by MC9BEAT:
I think we could trade back and still get Moncrief. Right now he looks like he will go anywhere from 45-65.

remember this is based on a draft simulator,not what I would pick willy nilly,it is based on a real draft where other players are off the board when the niners pick at 30th...go to fanspeak.com and draft your players and see IF Moncreif is there in the 2nd round when the Niners pick,especially after the 40 time He ran at the combine.

Not sure I would put much stock in that per se. I think it's more about Moncrief flying under most of our radars and not necessarily putting up Madden-like numbers in the SEC. But the closer you look, the more you see a potential #1 WR with Josh Gordon/Michael Floyd/Alshon Jeffrey potential.

He is a sleeper,I have a real good feeling about this kid,one where if you are baalke you cannot take a chance and not draft him with the 30th pick, He is exactly the speed Height,Weight guy we have been missing,He is big and strong enough to beat dick sherman and other press corners off the line,I can see the niners runnig him on deep skinnny posts or like the quick slants that Jerry rice used to run for TDs picking him in the first round would set the stage for the rest of the draft for thr Niners.

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:

Wallace played a lot more conservatively this year, throwing nearly 70 more passes but 4 less TDs and a lower average per attempt. In Wallace's first year as their starter, he was more aggressive and it showed with Moncrief being 6th in the SEC in catches and 3rd in TD receptions with 10. No disrespect to Matthews, but for all his catches, he's never hit double-digit TD receptions. Matthews with 262 has more than 100 career receptions than does Moncrief (156) but has only 4 more TD receptions, and Matthews played all 4 years compared to DM's 3.

Very different WR types, is my point.

I addressed that, vandys QBs threw 15 and 16 (1 by a WR) TDs in his last two years (15the year before that)
2013 1477 out of 2937 = 50% - 7 out of 15 = 47%
2012 1323 out of 2750 = 48% - 8 out of 16 = 50%

Originally posted by RishikeshA:
The first 5 picks in your draft offer no beef.

beef? I pick for NEED in the future and some guys that could contribute right away...where do we need beef at that is a pressing need?

Originally posted by solidg2000:

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Wallace played a lot more conservatively this year, throwing nearly 70 more passes but 4 less TDs and a lower average per attempt. In Wallace's first year as their starter, he was more aggressive and it showed with Moncrief being 6th in the SEC in catches and 3rd in TD receptions with 10. No disrespect to Matthews, but for all his catches, he's never hit double-digit TD receptions. Matthews with 262 has more than 100 career receptions than does Moncrief (156) but has only 4 more TD receptions, and Matthews played all 4 years compared to DM's 3.

Very different WR types, is my point.

I addressed that, vandys QBs threw 15 and 16 (1 by a WR) TDs in his last two years (15the year before that)
2013 1477 out of 2937 = 50% - 7 out of 15 = 47%
2012 1323 out of 2750 = 48% - 8 out of 16 = 50%

No doubt, ACS wasn't very good...there's no doubt about it. Just saying, Wallace wasn't a whole lot better this past year.

I'm sure you know though that what we're talking about is a matter of taste (which is what I said early on). It's like saying Italian food is better than Indian. I love Jordan Matthews as a prospect, I just think Moncrief is a better fit for our team, has more upside and causes more schematic problems against Seattle than would Matthews.

Purely subjective, which is what the draft is all about.

Originally posted by jrouter4949:

Originally posted by RishikeshA:
The first 5 picks in your draft offer no beef.

beef? I pick for NEED in the future and some guys that could contribute right away...where do we need beef at that is a pressing need?

Agreed in that "beef" is not an issue with our team right now and can be addressed later in the draft pretty easily.

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:

No doubt, ACS wasn't very good...there's no doubt about it. Just saying, Wallace wasn't a whole lot better this past year.

I'm sure you know though that what we're talking about is a matter of taste (which is what I said early on). It's like saying Italian food is better than Indian. I love Jordan Matthews as a prospect, I just think Moncrief is a better fit for our team, has more upside and causes more schematic problems against Seattle than would Matthews.

Purely subjective, which is what the draft is all about.

True, it's all about taste. But at purely prospect rating regardless of schemes, Matthews is the better prospect. Huge catch radius, productive in a terrible passing offense, great hands, just as good speed as Moncrief (.06 diff), better change of direction.
I like Moncrief, I'm not in love with him like some people.
But there's still a lot of guys in front of him. I'd personally start looking at him in the 3rd round, not sooner


Off topic a lil. I'm tired of all this we need a small fast guy to beat Seattle
Andre Johnson 100+ yards
Cecil Shorts 100+ yards (6'0 202 lbs 4.59 40)
M Colston 100+ yards
Brandon Marshall 100+ yards
Boldin 93 yards

That's 3 big guys, one average slower guy
Vs
TY Hilton

Originally posted by solidg2000:

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
No doubt, ACS wasn't very good...there's no doubt about it. Just saying, Wallace wasn't a whole lot better this past year.

I'm sure you know though that what we're talking about is a matter of taste (which is what I said early on). It's like saying Italian food is better than Indian. I love Jordan Matthews as a prospect, I just think Moncrief is a better fit for our team, has more upside and causes more schematic problems against Seattle than would Matthews.

Purely subjective, which is what the draft is all about.

True, it's all about taste. But at purely prospect rating regardless of schemes, Matthews is the better prospect. Huge catch radius, productive in a terrible passing offense, great hands, just as good speed as Moncrief (.06 diff), better change of direction.
I like Moncrief, I'm not in love with him like some people.
But there's still a lot of guys in front of him. I'd personally start looking at him in the 3rd round, not sooner


Off topic a lil. I'm tired of all this we need a small fast guy to beat Seattle
Andre Johnson 100+ yards
Cecil Shorts 100+ yards (6'0 202 lbs 4.59 40)
M Colston 100+ yards
Brandon Marshall 100+ yards
Boldin 93 yards

That's 3 big guys, one average slower guy
Vs
TY Hilton

You'd miss him if you waited until the 3rd, but it sounds like that's not much of an issue for you. On some measurements, Matthews edges out Moncrief (an inch taller, slightly quicker in short areas, longer arms, better overall college production), while on others, Moncrief comes out ahead (better long speed, 4" higher vertical jump, a full foot in the broad jump, better career YPC and a better TD per-catch ratio). I think Matthews will have a very good career in the NFL, but I think Moncrief has a chance to be special, particularly with a QB like Kap. So it sounds like we'll just have to agree to disagree on this.

In terms of Seattle, speed (small or not) is definitely one way to score against them (here's 6 of the 16 TD passes caught against Seattle this past season):

- Michael Floyd (4.47), 31 yard catch as he runs past Maxwell for the game winner in Seattle
- Jarius Wright (4.42) with 2 big TD catches, one where Thomas was late covering and another as he runs past Sherman trying to grab him
- Tiquan Underwood (4.41) flashing across the field for a 20 yard score as Thomas is late getting over
- TY Hilton (4.34) for 2 big scores and a pissed off Seattle secondary.

I love this from a Colts fan site:

This was against, arguably, the best secondary in football. You could tell Hilton and the wide-outs had gotten under Sherman's skin when, after Hilton's amazing 73-yard TD catch and run, Sherman was seen frustrated with teammate Earl Thomas, who took a bad angle to in an attempt to tackle Hilton after the second-year receiver had scorched Sherman. Following Hilton's first touchdown, both players were seen on the sidelines, completely befuddled as to how they'd been beaten so embarrassingly.

Of the guys mentioned above (Johnson, Shorts, Boldin and Colston), they all had big yardage games, but no TD receptions in the regular season (interestingly enough). Colston did break through in the playoffs for a 9-yard TD catch on a beautifully thrown ball between Thomas and Sherman. But in their regular season game, Colston was held to 4 catches/27 yards. Of course Boldin got a TD catch over Thomas in the NFCCG, but again, held scoreless in the regular season. Not exactly sure what it means, but I do see that speed was able to get at the Seahawk secondary for TDs.

I think the Brandon Marshall game was last year.