Bradley Roby - Ohio State

Originally posted by SofaKing:

Yup, non-story. You can't even sit in your car these days without the f**king cops breathing down your throat. Dragged him to the station over a .008 BAC. SMH

They were Michigan fans.

I think the .008 was a test they did at the police station though.

Originally posted by DeUh:

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Aldon performed out on the field while Roby got lit up like a Christmas tree this past season.

He did not. He had a burn rate of 10 percent while in press man or off man coverage.

Skewed stat. He didn't play a ton of press, more off man than press. And his burn % in zone was pretty bad.

If we could get Pryor at 30 and Roby in the 2nd that would be a great start to this draft.

From local news here, it appears the case is going to be dropped. Nonetheless, guys who have some red flags can't be caught up in anything this time of year, even being slumped over the wheel asleep in a car. Stay home, prep for the draft, go to bed early, avoid alcohol, etc.

Originally posted by KRS-1:

Originally posted by DeUh:

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Aldon performed out on the field while Roby got lit up like a Christmas tree this past season.

He did not. He had a burn rate of 10 percent while in press man or off man coverage.

Skewed stat. He didn't play a ton of press, more off man than press. And his burn % in zone was pretty bad.

I try to keep this as classy as possible but comments like "lit up like a Christmas tree " and "Skewed stat" hit a nerve. All those back and forth over those stats is out of control and is getting flat out ridicioulus. Especially when talking about DB stats.

Without the whole tape and a full understanding about the scheme they played in those stats are complete nonsense.

Here is an example:



What you see here is Kyle Fuller vs. Devin Street.

If Street runs any other route it would be a completion. But because of the play call Street runs a 5 yrd out, Fuller has timer to recover and makes a deflection. This deflection lowers Fullers burn rate and increases his overall pass deflection rate.


Now lets take a closer look at those CB Metric stats everyone on here is talking about.

The SIP Burn % the author uses there is actually his adjusted SIP burn %.
- SIP Burn % is named as such because it removes screens and pass interference penalties.
- Adjusted Burn % uses the SIP Burn % and then ATTEMPTS to adjust for how often a DB was targeted at the different depths. If a DB was mostly targeted underneath due to scheme, the formula ATTEMPTS to compensate for that to create an "average passing attack" that the DBs would face.
- Burn % is the number without any manipulation – pass interference counts as a completion for this stat.

To me a pass interference equals a completion.

Here are the burn percentages from this years Top 5 CB without any manipulation.

- Kyle Fuller Burn% 32.43
- Darqueze Dennard Burn% 33.33
- Jason Verrett Burn% 45.00
- Justin Gilbert Burn% 48.00
- Bradley Roby Burn% 54.90


To take this up a notch here are the YPC ( yards per completion ) and YPA ( yards per attempt ) numbers.

- Kyle Fuller YPC 9.42 YPA 13.83
- Darqueze Dennard YPC 7.08 YPA 17.98
- Jason Verrett YPC 14.47 YPA 16.89
- Justin Gilbert YPC 10.67 YPA 13.70
- Bradley Roby YPC 9.04 YPA 10.65


By no means is Roby a perfect prospect at this point in his career but everyone should keep in mind that :

1. It is fun to look at those stats but without the tape complete nonsense.
2. That Roby excels in man coverage. His burn percentage was bad while in ZONE and on the defensive side of the ball Ohio State´s scheme and game plan was a complete mess. Especially last season. Here is an article about it http://www.elevenwarriors.com/2013/12/30986/ohio-state-football-lack-of-defensive-identity-cost-buckeyes.
3. Burn percentage while in man coverage - Roby 10 percent, Gilbert 16 percent, Fuller 16 percent, Verrett 34 percent, ( I dont have Dennards burn rate ).

Originally posted by Memphis9er:

Originally posted by m_brockalexander:

Talented and physically gifted, but all those question marks about his off field stuff would scare me away at this point. I would take Dennard, Gilbert, Fuller or Verrett at this point, but Roby is out of the picture.

same here, we have enough knuckleheads already

I guess we were both right on this one.

kiss this guy goodbye, take him off the draft board, we dont need another idiot on our team.

Originally posted by JimHarbaugh:

kiss this guy goodbye, take him off the draft board, we dont need another idiot on our team.

Are people misinformed about this non-story? Roby did absolutely nothing wrong here.

Originally posted by VPofCarnage:
Are people misinformed about this non-story? Roby did absolutely nothing wrong here.

I must be then, just read the bleacher report

Originally posted by VPofCarnage:

Originally posted by JimHarbaugh:
kiss this guy goodbye, take him off the draft board, we dont need another idiot on our team.

Are people misinformed about this non-story? Roby did absolutely nothing wrong here.

As soon as a story like this comes out people on here usually do their best TMZ impersonation and start . A .008 BAC ? Lol.

He should be smart enough to not drink and get behind the wheel. Like it or not, this is just another example of his less than stellar decision making. I am glad that he wasn't actually driving.

Originally posted by DeUh:

Originally posted by VPofCarnage:

Originally posted by JimHarbaugh:

kiss this guy goodbye, take him off the draft board, we dont need another idiot on our team.

Are people misinformed about this non-story? Roby did absolutely nothing wrong here.

As soon as a story like this comes out people on here usually do their best TMZ impersonation and start . A .008 BAC ? Lol.

Just like Kaep, this kid didn't do anything wrong except win the bad timing awards. With his record and the draft two weeks away, he shouldn't be involved with anything remotely illegal because it will hurt his draft stock. In regards to the Niners, it probably means Roby is off their board. Niners have enough negative publicity to deal with already.

Originally posted by DeUh:
I try to keep this as classy as possible but comments like "lit up like a Christmas tree " and "Skewed stat" hit a nerve. All those back and forth over those stats is out of control and is getting flat out ridicioulus. Especially when talking about DB stats.

Without the whole tape and a full understanding about the scheme they played in those stats are complete nonsense.

Here is an example:



What you see here is Kyle Fuller vs. Devin Street.

If Street runs any other route it would be a completion. But because of the play call Street runs a 5 yrd out, Fuller has timer to recover and makes a deflection. This deflection lowers Fullers burn rate and increases his overall pass deflection rate.


Now lets take a closer look at those CB Metric stats everyone on here is talking about.

The SIP Burn % the author uses there is actually his adjusted SIP burn %.
- SIP Burn % is named as such because it removes screens and pass interference penalties.
- Adjusted Burn % uses the SIP Burn % and then ATTEMPTS to adjust for how often a DB was targeted at the different depths. If a DB was mostly targeted underneath due to scheme, the formula ATTEMPTS to compensate for that to create an "average passing attack" that the DBs would face.
- Burn % is the number without any manipulation – pass interference counts as a completion for this stat.

To me a pass interference equals a completion.

Here are the burn percentages from this years Top 5 CB without any manipulation.

- Kyle Fuller Burn% 32.43
- Darqueze Dennard Burn% 33.33
- Jason Verrett Burn% 45.00
- Justin Gilbert Burn% 48.00
- Bradley Roby Burn% 54.90


To take this up a notch here are the YPC ( yards per completion ) and YPA ( yards per attempt ) numbers.

- Kyle Fuller YPC 9.42 YPA 13.83
- Darqueze Dennard YPC 7.08 YPA 17.98
- Jason Verrett YPC 14.47 YPA 16.89
- Justin Gilbert YPC 10.67 YPA 13.70
- Bradley Roby YPC 9.04 YPA 10.65


By no means is Roby a perfect prospect at this point in his career but everyone should keep in mind that :

1. It is fun to look at those stats but without the tape complete nonsense.
2. That Roby excels in man coverage. His burn percentage was bad while in ZONE and on the defensive side of the ball Ohio State´s scheme and game plan was a complete mess. Especially last season. Here is an article about it http://www.elevenwarriors.com/2013/12/30986/ohio-state-football-lack-of-defensive-identity-cost-buckeyes.
3. Burn percentage while in man coverage - Roby 10 percent, Gilbert 16 percent, Fuller 16 percent, Verrett 34 percent, ( I dont have Dennards burn rate ).

I've seen the games, he looked lost in the sauce out on the field more often than not. He did get lit up like a Christmas tree at times, guys were having career games against him and making him look silly. He showed a lack of real instincts on where the play was going, kept getting caught peeking at the CB and having his guy go right past him. Put on the Cal game from this past season and tell me that is a guy that should be drafted anywhere near the 1st round.


Guys who regress their final year in college don't typically do all that well in the NFL. If I see that Dennard, Gilbert and Verrett have all been progressing and improving, why take a chance on a knucklehead like Roby who to me has a tremendous bust factor. I'm sorry, you can be a fan of him as you have a right to be, but don't try to convince me that he didn't have a bad season. I could care less about his athleticism or ability, something that nobody is questioning, its what is going on between his ears that people worry about and the hardest concern to diagnose.


If it had been injury issues I would understand but he simply looked lost out there at times, he got beat by average to mediocre receivers so why should I feel any better about his pro prospects?

Originally posted by DeUh:
I try to keep this as classy as possible but comments like "lit up like a Christmas tree " and "Skewed stat" hit a nerve. All those back and forth over those stats is out of control and is getting flat out ridicioulus. Especially when talking about DB stats.

Without the whole tape and a full understanding about the scheme they played in those stats are complete nonsense.

CB Metrics are a nice compliment to watching film but they do not represent fact nor can they be used as a sole basis for an argument. You are the one who is using a statistic to drive home one factor about the player yet you failed to mention the other factors in play in doing so, thus it appears the point your making is skewed or somewhat biased from my perspective (maybe that was not your intention but that is how I perceived it). His burn percentage does not illustrate how good his coverage skills are or are not. Statistics can be easily skewed to illustrate a point.

One thing that is clear when looking at the game tapes for 2013 is that Dennard and Verrett on tape alone definitely proved they belong in the first round conversation, but that 2013 game tape is not the only factor in play. All things considered they both probably belong somewhere within the 15-35 range. Unfortunately I can't say the same about Roby and even at best it's hard to say he is a fringe first round talent off of that tape, and it cannot be blamed all on the coaches or scheme. He does some things very well, but there is enough on that 2013 tape to make one weary about taking a guy inside the top 32. All things considered (including the off the field stuff and given our situation with offseason arrests and need at the CB position) I would not take Roby inside the first 2 rounds. Taking the off the field stuff out of the equation, I'd have been okay with Roby as early as about 50 (mid second) but not before.

DUI? Signs like a 49er to me. DRAFT HIM