Garlicboy Mock #3

Originally posted by communist:
Like I said, he is knee-injured for the SECOND time in his collegiate career. The first one was also an ACL tear, iirc. Very huge risk that he never be the same again.

I'll take my chances.

Looks like it worked out well for Frank Gore, Brady, AP, etc.

It was only the ACL, not MCL, LCL, menisci, etc. The minutiae of the injury is very important. Definitely not ideal, but Easley was also a projected 1st rounder.

Originally posted by MC9BEAT:

My statement about wanting 1st, 2nd or 3rd round talent for pup list guys. Do you really want to spend 5th-7th round picks on injured players that would not have gone any higher than the 4th round if they were healthy? I don't want to spend a 7th round pick on a 4th to 5th round talent with a knee injury.

That is a poor, poor way of doing business and assessing talent.

Here's a stat for you. Record 98 underclassmen entered the 2014 draft, which means the 2015 draft will be watered down and weak. A 7th this year may not be as valuable as a 6th or 5th next year. Because of the amount of underclassmen this year, your better off redshirting the superior talent in the 2014 draft.

1. With serious injuries some players never make it back. The current stat on ACL injuries is 20% according to an article I read.
2. Players coming off serious injuries that do come back tend to have shorter careers.
3. Even if they come back and play well with a redshirt year you only get 3 years of production before they are FA's and you know how much fun it is for the 49ers to try and resign FA's. 1 yr to redshirt. 1 yr as a rookie to learn. 2 more years and possibly gone.

1.) Only 80% success rate? Where's your article. Fact the ACL can actually become stronger post-op because of the tendon/ligament being used and surgery.
2.) Post ACL players have shorter careers??? See Jerry Rice, Tom Brady, Frank Gore, I can't think of a player who didn't come back for only an ACL.
3.) This is a very weak argument. There is nothing cheaper than a rookie contract, even if it is 1 year shorter than the norm. 49ers LOVE Kapernicks, Reid's and Iupati's rookie contracts. Believe that.

Love it except for the 2nd round pick redshirt BS. No way can we afford to keep doing that. Just because we did it last year does not mean it's an annual ritual. The team has not done it before until last year. I also highly doubt Donte Moncreif is gonna be available in the late 3rd round. I would used that BS 2nd round pick to grab Moncreif, then it is more realistic imo. Good job though

Originally posted by kronik:
Love it except for the 2nd round pick redshirt BS. No way can we afford to keep doing that. Just because we did it last year does not mean it's an annual ritual. The team has not done it before until last year. I also highly doubt Donte Moncreif is gonna be available in the late 3rd round. I would used that BS 2nd round pick to grab Moncreif, then it is more realistic imo. Good job though

If we use 6 or our 7 picks on healthy players still ahead of the game. Most teams only have 7 picks in the entire draft!!!

Do I think the 49ers will draft all injured players? Probably not. I think they will just try and sign a few as UDFA. However I will be SHOCKED! If they don't draft at least 3. The over under is 4 in my book.

Originally posted by Garlicboy:

Originally posted by MC9BEAT:

My statement about wanting 1st, 2nd or 3rd round talent for pup list guys. Do you really want to spend 5th-7th round picks on injured players that would not have gone any higher than the 4th round if they were healthy? I don't want to spend a 7th round pick on a 4th to 5th round talent with a knee injury.

That is a poor, poor way of doing business and assessing talent.

Here's a stat for you. Record 98 underclassmen entered the 2014 draft, which means the 2015 draft will be watered down and weak. A 7th this year may not be as valuable as a 6th or 5th next year. Because of the amount of underclassmen this year, your better off redshirting the superior talent in the 2014 draft.

1. With serious injuries some players never make it back. The current stat on ACL injuries is 20% according to an article I read.
2. Players coming off serious injuries that do come back tend to have shorter careers.
3. Even if they come back and play well with a redshirt year you only get 3 years of production before they are FA's and you know how much fun it is for the 49ers to try and resign FA's. 1 yr to redshirt. 1 yr as a rookie to learn. 2 more years and possibly gone.

1.) Only 80% success rate? Where's your article. Fact the ACL can actually become stronger post-op because of the tendon/ligament being used and surgery.
2.) Post ACL players have shorter careers??? See Jerry Rice, Tom Brady, Frank Gore, I can't think of a player who didn't come back for only an ACL.
3.) This is a very weak argument. There is nothing cheaper than a rookie contract, even if it is 1 year shorter than the norm. 49ers LOVE Kapernicks, Reid's and Iupati's rookie contracts. Believe that.

Originally posted by Garlicboy:

Originally posted by MC9BEAT:

My statement about wanting 1st, 2nd or 3rd round talent for pup list guys. Do you really want to spend 5th-7th round picks on injured players that would not have gone any higher than the 4th round if they were healthy? I don't want to spend a 7th round pick on a 4th to 5th round talent with a knee injury.

That is a poor, poor way of doing business and assessing talent.

Here's a stat for you. Record 98 underclassmen entered the 2014 draft, which means the 2015 draft will be watered down and weak. A 7th this year may not be as valuable as a 6th or 5th next year. Because of the amount of underclassmen this year, your better off redshirting the superior talent in the 2014 draft.

1. With serious injuries some players never make it back. The current stat on ACL injuries is 20% according to an article I read.
2. Players coming off serious injuries that do come back tend to have shorter careers.
3. Even if they come back and play well with a redshirt year you only get 3 years of production before they are FA's and you know how much fun it is for the 49ers to try and resign FA's. 1 yr to redshirt. 1 yr as a rookie to learn. 2 more years and possibly gone.

1.) Only 80% success rate? Where's your article. Fact the ACL can actually become stronger post-op because of the tendon/ligament being used and surgery.
2.) Post ACL players have shorter careers??? See Jerry Rice, Tom Brady, Frank Gore, I can't think of a player who didn't come back for only an ACL.
3.) This is a very weak argument. There is nothing cheaper than a rookie contract, even if it is 1 year shorter than the norm. 49ers LOVE Kapernicks, Reid's and Iupati's rookie contracts. Believe that.

You honestly believe that all players come back 100% from ACL injuries to 100% of what they were before except for those who are even stronger? Really?

Your examples of Gore,Brady and Rice. Gore is exceptional. He surprises everyone every year. Brady. How important is the ability to cut in his game?
As for Rice. before his injury he had 9 straight 1200 yd seasons. After the injury only once in 8 seasons. 5 of those seasons were the 5 lowest yardage totals of his career.

Of course rookie contracts are cap friendly. The point I was trying to make is that a healthy player gives you 4 years to benefit from that rookie contract. The injured 1 only 3. And yes the 49ers love Kap and Reid's and Iupati's rookie contracts. Duh. What I said was they won't love it when they are over and they have to let them go or sign them to new much bigger contracts. Are you arguing that?

As for drafting pup list guys there is a risk. Will they come back to 100%. Even if they do you only get the benefit of those rookie contracts for 3 years and not 4.
There is still merit to drafting them if the benefit outweighs the risk.

I think it would be stupid to draft a guy in the 5th round with a knee injury who was projected as a 4th round pick before his injury. A 2nd round talent may be worth it. I don't want to spend a 6th round pick either. Even a 7th would be a stretch but possible. For someone who would have gone in the 3rd round or better sure. Taking the risk for a special player is fine.

Would you really use a 7th round pick to draft a player projected to go in the 5th round before he tore up his knee? If you would then you would. We disagree on it. I wouldn't. Would I consider an undrafted FA contract? Sure.

Oh and your stat about the record number of underclassmen in 2014 making the 2015 draft watered down and weak. It is very possible the 2015 draft will not be as good. You do realize that the 2013 draft set an all time record for underclassmen as well. Did that make the 2014 draft watered down and weak?

I think it would be stupid to draft a guy in the 5th round with a knee injury who was projected as a 4th round pick before his injury.
Read more at http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/nfl-draft/177070-garlicboy-mock-3/page3/#HYZYrefeWPbi5KJJ.99

About who are you talking about???

Originally posted by Garlicboy:

Originally posted by MC9BEAT:

A 4th round pick for an injured back up QB of the future? In a very deep draft no less.

A 6th round pick for an inured back up SS?

I can see Colvin, Millard and Long. They are late picks for the pup list that could become starters for us. Someone like Easley if he were to drop to the 4th round or later.

4th round pick? 6th round pick? Check where Aaron Murray and Sunseri are predicted to get drafted. I would love to take Murray in the 7th, but that is not realistic.

People on the board never acknowledge the fact that the 49ers hold the 30th pick in the 4th round. Might as well consider it a high 5th.

7th round? Most players would rather be signed as an UDFA because of the signing bonus. If the team doesn't draft a Healthy player in the 7th round...

BIG DEAL!!! The draft will have perhaps 7 more picks and then it's a free for all with UDRFA, and the 49ers have paid top dollar to get the UDRFA in camp.

Do you think it impossible Murray would be available in the 5th round? I don't. Even then he can't help us with our need for a back up this year. Do we draft another QB to be our back up this year? If we sign a vet and he looks good then we don't need to draft a back up. There are some talented players who could help us in the 4th round this year.

As for the injured SS with a 6th round pick the mock already had a SS drafted higher to be our starter. If we were resigning Whitner and the intent was to groom him to take over for Whitner in 2 years sure but to compete for a role as depth? Not even a player to rotate in but depth. I guess it's possible but not that appealing.

Originally posted by Garlicboy:

Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
yeah, ok, not bad. Not my favorite players, but pretty solid until the 4th. Not that I don't like those players, or don't think we can draft a few injured guys with how deep our team is and how many picks we have, but drafting 6 guys that won't play the entire year is overkill. Easley makes sense. Colvin too. Maybe the 7th rounders. Otherwise we'll need some production out of the other guys in rds 4,5,6

2 words: Free Agency

I see your 2 words, and I raise you two more: "Salary Cap"

Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:

I see your 2 words, and I raise you two more: "Salary Cap"

Thanks for the supprt. Rookie contracts cheapest type. free agency has worked nicely for 49ers. check Dahl, Skuta, and Dorsey.

cheap redshirts in 2014: thank,ml, lm, dial and okoye

Originally posted by Garlicboy:

Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
I see your 2 words, and I raise you two more: "Salary Cap"

Thanks for the supprt. Rookie contracts cheapest type. free agency has worked nicely for 49ers. check Dahl, Skuta, and Dorsey.

cheap redshirts in 2014: thank,ml, lm, dial and okoye

I'm not against injured red shirts as a supplement, but over half the picks is overkill. You also need to draft guys that have proven to be durable. this isn't a way to do that.

Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:

I'm not against injured red shirts as a supplement, but over half the picks is overkill. You also need to draft guys that have proven to be durable. this isn't a way to do that.

I think people do not understand that there are simply not enough roster spots on the practice squad, much less the team.

What happened to our 7ths last year?

On the Chies and Seahawks.

Factor in our picks and 5 redshirts.

Originally posted by Garlicboy:

Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
I'm not against injured red shirts as a supplement, but over half the picks is overkill. You also need to draft guys that have proven to be durable. this isn't a way to do that.

I think people do not understand that there are simply not enough roster spots on the practice squad, much less the team.

What happened to our 7ths last year?

On the Chies and Seahawks.

Factor in our picks and 5 redshirts.

We actually have quite a few spots to fill. We can have as many as 4 or 5 spots at CB. Morris will compete for 1, and we'll probably bring in FAs, but as of now, Morris, Brock and Culliver are the only CBs we'll have on the roster once Rogers is cut. We may have a void at SS, and the other 2 backup safety spots could be up for competition. Dahl may be too expensive for his role. LB is set, but a high draft choice would have a chance to compete with Skuta. We'll need a starting Center, and someone to take Snyder's spot if not retained, and we'll be going into the offseason with only 2 or 3 WRs on the roster. Depending on Boldin. Plus with Dixon leaving, and possibly James, that's another 1 or 2 spots. Lets take a look at some of the players we are likely to lose and those we are likely to gain and see how many spots are left. (also, some spots are open to competition. Like Celek's spot)

Leaving (assuming Q, Osgood and Dawson come back, and not counting Manningham, as he was on IR all year)
1) Baldwin
2) Cox
3) Wright
4) Whitner
5) Rogers
6) Snyder
7) Goodwin
8) Dixon
9) Colt McCoy
10) Dahl
11) T. Brown
12) Dobbs
13) Wilhoitte

Getting Back (Miller was on the team most of the year, and excluding guys who are not likely to make the team)
1) Lattimore
2) Carradine
3) Culliver
4) Okoye
5) Marquerdt
6) Ian Williams

That's a net of 7 open spots. The other 6 can compete for roster spots with guys like Darryl Morris, Carrier, Celek, Spillman. Some red shirt players are fine. The idea that we have only 3 or 4 open roster spots is not true. The idea that 7th round picks are worthless, couldn't be further from the truth.

Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:

Leaving (assuming Q, Osgood and Dawson come back, and not counting Manningham, as he was on IR all year)
1) Baldwin
2) Cox
3) Wright
4) Whitner
5) Rogers
6) Snyder
7) Goodwin
8) Dixon
9) Colt McCoy
10) Dahl
11) T. Brown
12) Dobbs
13) Wilhoitte

Getting Back (Miller was on the team most of the year, and excluding guys who are not likely to make the team)
1) Lattimore
2) Carradine
3) Culliver
4) Okoye
5) Marquerdt
6) Ian Williams

That's a net of 7 open spots. The other 6 can compete for roster spots with guys like Darryl Morris, Carrier, Celek, Spillman. Some red shirt players are fine. The idea that we have only 3 or 4 open roster spots is not true. The idea that 7th round picks are worthless, couldn't be further from the truth.

You forgot about Quinton Dial.

Debatable who will come back. But I think Snyder and Wilhoite are definitely coming back with Dahl as a strong possibility
7.) Synder
8.) Wilhoite

But for the sake of argument, we'll use your example 7 spots left and 12 picks. That means 5 guys are cut, 5th, 6th, 7th rounders are off the team anyways by your analogy.

Who said 7th round picks are worthless? Apparently in your example 5th, 6th and 7th rounders are because 5 drafted players are not making the team.

In addition, free agents are not factored into the equation and I have never seen a team not add any free agents, or make a trade.

So factor in 4 new players free agents or trades. Last year it was Boldin (trade), Colt McCoy (trade), Eric Wright, Glenn Dorsey, Dan Skuta, Osgood, Ventrone and Dawson so I am definitely conservative in my estimates.

I'll simplify things.

49ers squad consists of:

1.) 53 man roster: Offense, Defense, Special teams, back-ups, etc.

-Players are exclusively owned by 49ers


2.) 8 man Practice Squad/"Developmental Squad"

-PLAYERS CAN BE SIGNED BY ANY TEAM AT ANY TEAM!

3.) Injured Reserve (IR)/Nonfootball Injury List (NFI)- Unlimited amount of players, but count against the cap

-PLAYERS ARE EXCLUSIVELY OWNED BY 49ERS


IN 2014 DRAFT WE NEED TO REPLENISH OUR IR/NFI TEAM!!!

Not sure I can make things any clearer.

Roster spots:
Offense poss: OL 8, QB 2, TE 3, HB 4, FB 2, WR 6
QB if McCoy goes 1
OL Goodwin & Snyder 2
WR If Boldin resigns 3 safe spots 2-3 Osgood is not guaranteed
TE Celek could get beat out 1 potential

Defense poss: DL 8, LB 8, CB 5, S 4
DL Keep 8 Starting 3 + Tank, Dial safe Maybe Williams, potential 2-3
LB 0 1 temp if Bowman not ready or if Wilhoite not kept Lemonier,Skuta & Moody probably safe
S 1 safe Reid, if Whitner leaves need 1 but Dahl and Spillman not guaranteed
CB 2 safe Brock and Culliver poss Cox or Morris 2-3

There are a potential 14 openings on the team. That doesn't include pre-opening day injuries. Last year Crabtree and Culliver were injured before the season started creating 2 more openings.

There could be a lot of openings on this team. For instance WR
It would not surprise me to see the 49ers keep Boldin with Crabtree and Patton, Draft 2 WR's like Lee and Bryant and keep Osgood or let Osgood go and draft 3 or draft 2 and draft a return specailist. Could be 3 new 49ers at the WR position alone.

Obviously 14 rookies won't make the team but there are potential roster spots. It all depends on who is resigned and who is let go, what if any FA's we sign and how the 49ers feel about some of the vets on the cusp like Dahl or Celek or Spillman