I did not make the statement that McKenzie's job will be on the line as fact....
He won't be making any Madden trades this year with his job potentially on line.
All those past Raiders picks were Al Davis choices, and now the franchise is run by Mark with GM Reggie McKenzie making the draft day decisions. Hayden can't be declared a bad pick at this point because he has one year of development under his belt. There is plenty of time for him to develop and live up to his draft status, and plenty of high draft picks who have taken 2-3-4 years to begin to live up to that status.
Our 1st, both 2nd's (56 & 61) and both 3rd's (77 & 94) add up to 1401 points or enough to get us up to # 8. The last trade that comes close to mimicking the move from 30 to 5 was the Falcons deal with Cleveland which sent picks 27, 59, 124 + a future 4th round pick. 27, 59 & 124 add up to 1038 points, leaving the difference between the charts value for 6 (1600) and those 3 picks that had numerical values on the chart (which added up to 1038) at 562 points. The lowest values of rounds 1 & 4 add up to 634 points which brings it all pretty close...the Falcons gave up a few points by throwing in that additional 4th round pick but one can call that a "sweetner" because Cleveland had all the leverage.
The 49ers traded 31 & 74 last year for 18. Dallas lost out on 80 points but the values were close enough and Dallas may have been happy to move back if their draft board at 18 had no one who they coveted being rated that highly.
The 49ers traded 45, 108 & 141 to move up from 45 to 36 to select Kap. The total points value of our 3 picks were 563.5, the Broncos #36 pick is valued as 540 points on the chart. Denver had the leverage so we gave up a few points to assure we got the deal done and to get in position to get our guy.
Now there are plenty of examples where trades don't match up closely with point values, but they have to be looked at case by case. Like the deal for Reid last year, Dallas could have pressed for more but the fact that a deal got done without apparent pressing may be an indication of what I mentioned, no player was of good value for them at 18 given their needs, wants and what was available on their
draft board. They did need safety help, but that doesn't mean they had the same grades on Reid we did. Every teams draft board is different, and not all teams have the same value on a prospect. The trade value chart is not the end all be all but it does reflect what most everyone already knows, top 5 picks are highly valuable, much more so than late 2nd or mid 3rd round picks. And lots of teams apparently still use it as a reference or jumping off point in working towards getting a deal done.
And here you sit thinking that 56 & 77 (545 points) + a 2015 1st round pick is enough to get up to 5 ? Assigning the first lowest point value to the future first brings us up to 13-14...assigning the point value to match up closer with the trade chart would be assuming the future 1st is worth the 11th pick. Oakland is NOT going to assume a future first from us is about the 11th pick in the draft. Oakland has all the leverage in such a deal with us, as the 5th pick could net them an elite prospect from this draft class at a premium position where they have needs (LT's Matthews or Robinson should they not resign Veldheer...Pass Rushers Jadeveon Clowney should he slide which would not be unprecedented, Anthony Barr who some think could be another Von Miller type, and of course QB's Bridgewater, Manziel, Bortles and maybe Carr who some feel is a top 10 worthy pick). Oakland is not picking for immediate impact they are picking guys who can help turn this franchise around and be with them for 10+ years. Those guys who go in the top 5, those elite prospects are the ones who can help excite the fanbase, and who can help the team sell more tickets, more merchandise, net them more media attention and more interest in their teams.
Would you have been okay with trading #7 in 2011 for 56, 77 and a future 1st from a team who had been to the last 3 Conference Championship games and appeared to likely be picking along the back end of the first round again the following year ? Fans around here would have called for Baalke's head and rightfully so for making a bad trade. But it's safe for me to assume that you would have been okay with it right, because you think it's okay for Oakland to make this move ?
There is no precedent for a team trading so little to move up that much, so to think Baalke is going to absolutely fleece Reggie McKenzie is living in a fantasy land. You seriously undervalue top 5 picks in the NFL draft and just what their value is.
As far as the free agent deals go, Arthur Jones has played much better and at a higher level than RJF. And there is a long history of players being overpaid and it happens every single year. This year will be no different and some guys will get more than their worth while others will still come close to what they are asking. Same for Sanders...today there is a rumor circulating that the Jets may have interest in Sanders, and I am sure other teams will. Even those that you think will not (Indy - who without Wayne showed they need more WR help, GB & Philly - both use a lot of 3 and 4 WR sets and both have pending players who could hit the market in Maclin and Jones, Carolina - need for WR help) could actually end up being interested, amongst a slew of other NFL teams who could have legit interest, and some of those teams could surprise as we have seen before teams shock by signing a free agent nobody saw coming (Aso to Philly came out of nowhere at the 11th hour a couple years ago).