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1st Mock Draft w/ offseason moves

Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
Leaving-Anquan Boldin
No.

Resignings-
T Brown- 4 year 19 mil
Ok. If back-loaded, perfect.

Extend
Kaepernick- 5 years 90 Mil
Crabtree- 6 years 72 Mil
18 Mio. per year for Kaep? I don't know about that. He is good but he has his flows. Should not exceed 15 mio. imo.

Crabtree is a very good receiver but he had just one very good season and seems to be injury-prone. Given that, 12 mio. are too much.

NFL Draft
49ers make a big splash in day 1 by trading their 2nd round pick from KC, 3rd round pick from TEN and future 1st round pick(2015) to Oakland for the 5th pick in the draft.

1st Round Pick 5 Sammy Watkins- Clemson WR
No, thanks to the trade of our '15 first-rounder. Although Watkins is a very good prospect, this draft is loaded with WR-talents.

1st Round Pick 30
Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix- Alabama SS
Won't be available here, imho. Though would be nice-to-have for sure.

2nd Round Pick 60
Travis Swanson- Arkansas C
Ok.

3rd Round
Keith McGill- Utah CB
I would rather have Jean-Baptiste instead.


Not-quoted parts are ok.
Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
Originally posted by MC9BEAT:
Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
Originally posted by MC9BEAT:
Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
Originally posted by MC9BEAT:
Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
Originally posted by Ninefan56:
I would not see Baalke sacrificing a 1st round pick in the future - not like him, and not good policy to bankrupt the future when there are other quality players available. I could see Baalke trade up to get Clinton Dix of he were near enough, to settle the Safety spot. So we have plenty of picks to address each need that we have - SS, two CBs, Two WRs, OG, OT, C, RB, DT, ILB.

I don't see a need at ILB as bowman should be back by week 4. I think we have enough to get by until then. I don't see how we are sacrificing the future by getting rid of 1 1st round pick either. We get the OG of the future in amini, get 1 great prospect and 2 decent veterans at receiver, 1 great prospect at SS and C. Let's see what we have in Lattimore before we use a high pick on another RB, see if Williams is any better than dorsey who played well this year. OT was addressed IMO and I like what we have at corner with Cully coming back and Rogers gone. Thanks for your input though, this is my 1st mock and I'm sure it isn't quite up to par with some others.
Would be nice but not likely to happen. The #5 pick on the draft pick chart is worth aprox 1700 pts and the pick you trade, a future 1st a late 2nd and an early 3rd are basically worth about 1150-1200 pts. Oakland would be getting screwed. they probably wouldn't do it if they could have our 1st this year plus a 2nd and a 3rd.
With so many QB's slated to go early in the draft Oakland may feel a need to take one. Even if they don't other teams may make them much better offers to trade down to get 1 of those QB's.

I think you left our comp pick out. We have a compensatory pick coming which should be a 3rd or 4th round pick giving us a total of 7 picks in the 1st 4 rounds.

Would love to have Sammy Watkins.

I didn't know where exactly the comp pick was so I just left it out, I would probably use it at corner though.

I don't know anything about the point system but I explained in above posts why I think the trade could happen. I think this draft is more likely to happen than others where I see posters drafting 14+ players.

I also see the qbs getting scooped up in the 1st 4 picks, at least manziel and bridgewater but probably bortles too. I also don't think a team will go all out for carr.

Can you tell me what the point system was on oakland's trade down last year and the 49er's trade up last year? I would appreciate it.

This also wouldn't be the 1st time oakland f**ked themselves in the draft.
There is a draft chart at the top of the draft war room section.

Baalke is great at getting the better of GM's in draft trades. Still, for a QB or if Sammy Watkins is sitting there Oakland could probably drop back 10 spots and get a 2nd rounder from someone who wanted either. A better 2nd rounder than 1 of our late ones. That would put them at 15 and they could move back another 6 spots and get a 3rd rounder and still be sitting at the 21st pick this year instead of around 30 next year in the 1st round and get their extra 2nd and 3rd. Top ten picks are hard to acquire. Maybe for 2 1st rounders but even that would be light because they know they would be very late picks. Remember, the Raiders pick again 6 picks after our 1st rounder. Our 1st round pick isn't worth much more than their 2nd rounder. If they don't take a QB they will probably want Watkins for themselves. To pass on that they will want a lot.


Thanks and you bring up very good points.. The only thing I disagree with is that your assuming the pick will be the 30th next year too. It probably will be but it also could be the 5th pick if we have some major injuries. Then that pick would also be worth 1700 points or w/e, you have a better chance of improving your team with 3 quality picks than with 1, and the raiders have A LOT of needs. If other offers aren't on the table for the raiders like last year then this trade could happen.
The raiders would be trading the 5th pick in the draft for a late 2nd and early 3rd this year. How does that make them a better team? That would be a step back for this season and THEY would assume up front the 1st rounder next year would be a late pick and it's next year so they have to wait for it to boot. It's possible they would consider it if we gave them this year's 1st rounder plus the 2nd and 3rd in place of next years but even then it would be a long shot.

Anything is possible. Maybe they would swap 1st rounders with us if we were to throw in LaMichael James and Quinton Dial but I doubt it. They probably covet Sammy Watkins as much as we would and I guarantee others would too. If they look to trade the pick they will get way better offers.

If we were trading for seattle's or denver's 1st rounder next year we would assume for value's sake the pick would be a late pick wouldn't we?

As for the 3 quality picks. A good GM could trade the 5th pick back to the end of the 1st round and get way more than 2 more quality picks.

There is always the hope they have brain damage but it is unlikely. If it were close maybe. Maybe we could get them to go for it if we gave them both 2nd rounders plus a 3rd and next years 1st. If you really want Watkins you are going to have to hope he falls in the draft to around 12th or so to put it in reach. I doubt Watkins is even on the 49ers radar because of what it would cost to get him.

Again they are building for the future. I don't think any impact player in this draft could get the raiders to the playoffs in the division they play in, assuming peyton plays again next year.

The raiders don't have a good gm. Look what he did last year. Traded down 9 spots and then took a corner who had major health concerns.

If I traded for seattle's 1st round pick than I would assume it would be a better pick than this year. You have no spots to go down but 32 spots to go up. Therefor IMO Seattle's pick next year would automatically be more valuable than this year. That's the problem I see with the point system.

As far as the 49ers go.. We have been in the nfc championship for 3 years in a row and most of those years we were lucky to not sustain too many key injuries. One could only hope we are that fortunate again this year. I would think a GM would see our pick next year as more valuable because again we're picking 30th this year and have 29 spots we could move up as opposed to only 2 spots we could slide down. Not to mention we are in the toughest division in football and the rams are going to get a hell of a lot better in this draft.
If I were trading for the Seahawks #1 I would assume it would be in the mid 20's or later. Same with the 49ers pick. Anything better would be bonus time. I would give you value based on that. Any good GM would feel the same way. Most GM's would rather have our 1st rounder this year rather than next year. Why? Because it's this year! Having to wait loses some value. The common rule outside of round 1 is a pick next year is worth 1 round less than this year. It is common for teams to trade 2nd round picks this year for 1st round picks next year. A 3rd round pick this year for a 2nd round pick next year and so forth and so on. The 25th pick next year isn't worth the 30th pick this year.

I would rather have Seattle's 1st rounder this year rather than next year even though next year's would most likely be earlier because it would help us now. Not too mention this is a very deep draft and the 32nd pick this year may be a better value than say the 25th pick next year because of that depth.

If Seattle offered us their 1st round pick next year for our two 2nd round picks this year would you take it in hopes they had a bad season and the pick was really good? I would assume for value comparison the pick would be 25th-32nd and if it was any better that would just be a free bonus I got.

I would love it if the Raiders agreed to your terms. Just don't hold your breath.
Originally posted by communist:
Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
Leaving-Anquan Boldin
No.

Resignings-
T Brown- 4 year 19 mil
Ok. If back-loaded, perfect.

Extend
Kaepernick- 5 years 90 Mil
Crabtree- 6 years 72 Mil
18 Mio. per year for Kaep? I don't know about that. He is good but he has his flows. Should not exceed 15 mio. imo.

Crabtree is a very good receiver but he had just one very good season and seems to be injury-prone. Given that, 12 mio. are too much.

NFL Draft
49ers make a big splash in day 1 by trading their 2nd round pick from KC, 3rd round pick from TEN and future 1st round pick(2015) to Oakland for the 5th pick in the draft.

1st Round Pick 5 Sammy Watkins- Clemson WR
No, thanks to the trade of our '15 first-rounder. Although Watkins is a very good prospect, this draft is loaded with WR-talents.

1st Round Pick 30
Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix- Alabama SS
Won't be available here, imho. Though would be nice-to-have for sure.

2nd Round Pick 60
Travis Swanson- Arkansas C
Ok.

3rd Round
Keith McGill- Utah CB
I would rather have Jean-Baptiste instead.


Not-quoted parts are ok.


I appreciate the critique.

I don't want boldin to leave, but I think it makes sense to let him walk for a couple of reasons. Age, the draft has a lot of talent at the position, and it frees up more money to lock down our star players. We probably will get a different receiver than walkins but I just feel like we've had some trouble at addressing this position in years past and get the slam dunk guy.(other than crabs and boldin)

I don't see why so many people think 19 mil won't happen with brown and I'm not talking about you. Brock IMO had a better year than brown and is making around 4 mil a year. Brown has been with the team for longer and is a slightly better player so I think he will get paid more, he just had a down year this year compared to last season.

As far as kaep goes I agree he is worth around 15 mil, but with how much teams are overpaying their qbs I think he will get a little more. Is he worth as much as Brees, Brady, Manning or Rodgers? no of course not. Is he worth more than Ryan, Flaco, Romo, Cutler or Stafford? Maybe it's the homer in me but I think he is. He still will settle for a little bit less than these guys IMO and if it is indeed 15 mil then that's great.

I think crabs is going to get a big pay day. I also agree that 12 mil a year is a little steep but harbaugh has made it known that he wants crabs to stick around. With Crabtree's history and the type of person he is, I don't see him settling for less. That is why I have him getting paid top dollar.
Originally posted by MC9BEAT:
Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
Originally posted by MC9BEAT:
Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
Originally posted by MC9BEAT:
Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
Originally posted by MC9BEAT:
Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
Originally posted by Ninefan56:
I would not see Baalke sacrificing a 1st round pick in the future - not like him, and not good policy to bankrupt the future when there are other quality players available. I could see Baalke trade up to get Clinton Dix of he were near enough, to settle the Safety spot. So we have plenty of picks to address each need that we have - SS, two CBs, Two WRs, OG, OT, C, RB, DT, ILB.

I don't see a need at ILB as bowman should be back by week 4. I think we have enough to get by until then. I don't see how we are sacrificing the future by getting rid of 1 1st round pick either. We get the OG of the future in amini, get 1 great prospect and 2 decent veterans at receiver, 1 great prospect at SS and C. Let's see what we have in Lattimore before we use a high pick on another RB, see if Williams is any better than dorsey who played well this year. OT was addressed IMO and I like what we have at corner with Cully coming back and Rogers gone. Thanks for your input though, this is my 1st mock and I'm sure it isn't quite up to par with some others.
Would be nice but not likely to happen. The #5 pick on the draft pick chart is worth aprox 1700 pts and the pick you trade, a future 1st a late 2nd and an early 3rd are basically worth about 1150-1200 pts. Oakland would be getting screwed. they probably wouldn't do it if they could have our 1st this year plus a 2nd and a 3rd.
With so many QB's slated to go early in the draft Oakland may feel a need to take one. Even if they don't other teams may make them much better offers to trade down to get 1 of those QB's.

I think you left our comp pick out. We have a compensatory pick coming which should be a 3rd or 4th round pick giving us a total of 7 picks in the 1st 4 rounds.

Would love to have Sammy Watkins.

I didn't know where exactly the comp pick was so I just left it out, I would probably use it at corner though.

I don't know anything about the point system but I explained in above posts why I think the trade could happen. I think this draft is more likely to happen than others where I see posters drafting 14+ players.

I also see the qbs getting scooped up in the 1st 4 picks, at least manziel and bridgewater but probably bortles too. I also don't think a team will go all out for carr.

Can you tell me what the point system was on oakland's trade down last year and the 49er's trade up last year? I would appreciate it.

This also wouldn't be the 1st time oakland f**ked themselves in the draft.
There is a draft chart at the top of the draft war room section.

Baalke is great at getting the better of GM's in draft trades. Still, for a QB or if Sammy Watkins is sitting there Oakland could probably drop back 10 spots and get a 2nd rounder from someone who wanted either. A better 2nd rounder than 1 of our late ones. That would put them at 15 and they could move back another 6 spots and get a 3rd rounder and still be sitting at the 21st pick this year instead of around 30 next year in the 1st round and get their extra 2nd and 3rd. Top ten picks are hard to acquire. Maybe for 2 1st rounders but even that would be light because they know they would be very late picks. Remember, the Raiders pick again 6 picks after our 1st rounder. Our 1st round pick isn't worth much more than their 2nd rounder. If they don't take a QB they will probably want Watkins for themselves. To pass on that they will want a lot.


Thanks and you bring up very good points.. The only thing I disagree with is that your assuming the pick will be the 30th next year too. It probably will be but it also could be the 5th pick if we have some major injuries. Then that pick would also be worth 1700 points or w/e, you have a better chance of improving your team with 3 quality picks than with 1, and the raiders have A LOT of needs. If other offers aren't on the table for the raiders like last year then this trade could happen.
The raiders would be trading the 5th pick in the draft for a late 2nd and early 3rd this year. How does that make them a better team? That would be a step back for this season and THEY would assume up front the 1st rounder next year would be a late pick and it's next year so they have to wait for it to boot. It's possible they would consider it if we gave them this year's 1st rounder plus the 2nd and 3rd in place of next years but even then it would be a long shot.

Anything is possible. Maybe they would swap 1st rounders with us if we were to throw in LaMichael James and Quinton Dial but I doubt it. They probably covet Sammy Watkins as much as we would and I guarantee others would too. If they look to trade the pick they will get way better offers.

If we were trading for seattle's or denver's 1st rounder next year we would assume for value's sake the pick would be a late pick wouldn't we?

As for the 3 quality picks. A good GM could trade the 5th pick back to the end of the 1st round and get way more than 2 more quality picks.

There is always the hope they have brain damage but it is unlikely. If it were close maybe. Maybe we could get them to go for it if we gave them both 2nd rounders plus a 3rd and next years 1st. If you really want Watkins you are going to have to hope he falls in the draft to around 12th or so to put it in reach. I doubt Watkins is even on the 49ers radar because of what it would cost to get him.

Again they are building for the future. I don't think any impact player in this draft could get the raiders to the playoffs in the division they play in, assuming peyton plays again next year.

The raiders don't have a good gm. Look what he did last year. Traded down 9 spots and then took a corner who had major health concerns.

If I traded for seattle's 1st round pick than I would assume it would be a better pick than this year. You have no spots to go down but 32 spots to go up. Therefor IMO Seattle's pick next year would automatically be more valuable than this year. That's the problem I see with the point system.

As far as the 49ers go.. We have been in the nfc championship for 3 years in a row and most of those years we were lucky to not sustain too many key injuries. One could only hope we are that fortunate again this year. I would think a GM would see our pick next year as more valuable because again we're picking 30th this year and have 29 spots we could move up as opposed to only 2 spots we could slide down. Not to mention we are in the toughest division in football and the rams are going to get a hell of a lot better in this draft.
If I were trading for the Seahawks #1 I would assume it would be in the mid 20's or later. Same with the 49ers pick. Anything better would be bonus time. I would give you value based on that. Any good GM would feel the same way. Most GM's would rather have our 1st rounder this year rather than next year. Why? Because it's this year! Having to wait loses some value. The common rule outside of round 1 is a pick next year is worth 1 round less than this year. It is common for teams to trade 2nd round picks this year for 1st round picks next year. A 3rd round pick this year for a 2nd round pick next year and so forth and so on. The 25th pick next year isn't worth the 30th pick this year.

I would rather have Seattle's 1st rounder this year rather than next year even though next year's would most likely be earlier because it would help us now. Not too mention this is a very deep draft and the 32nd pick this year may be a better value than say the 25th pick next year because of that depth.

If Seattle offered us their 1st round pick next year for our two 2nd round picks this year would you take it in hopes they had a bad season and the pick was really good? I would assume for value comparison the pick would be 25th-32nd and if it was any better that would just be a free bonus I got.

I would love it if the Raiders agreed to your terms. Just don't hold your breath.

Again you bring up some really good points that are hard to argue with. If seattle offered us their 1st pick next year for our 2 2nd round picks than it would be hard for me personally to pass up. Our picks are later in the round so they aren't as valuable. We would still have 11 picks this year and set ourselves up nicely for the draft next year. We could still bunch up picks and get back in the 2nd or even 1st if needed.

I think a better comparison would be us trading the 30th pick for a 3rd and 4th this year plus a 2nd and 6th next year which I probably wouldn't do with our current team since we aren't rebuilding, but if it were the Raiders than I would.

I agree that this draft class is deep and it will be harder to make trades like last year when the class wasn't as talented. Usually when you trade a pick this year for a future pick than it is a round higher but that isn't always the case. I've seen scenarios where all that was gained was a pick in the future in the same round, or a pick in the same round plus a late day draft pick.
[ Edited by JimDrinkAMiller on Feb 6, 2014 at 2:40 PM ]
Originally posted by KRS-1:
It is not about getting an impact player who the Raiders hope could get them to the playoffs this year...it's about getting impact players on their roster period. And quite possibly a franchise QB at 5.

As far as Reggie McKenzie being a good or bad GM, it's too early to truly tell and he has been working with a serious handicap through his first two years on the job. While he did reach on his 1st round pick and while he didn't get a great value on that trade down with Miami, one has to look at the whole picture here. His first year as GM he did not have any first or 2nd round picks, and last year he had no 2nd round picks. He took over a franchise in salary cap hell. His first 2 picks last year left a lot to desire, but there is still plenty of time for both to improve and grow, however he did find LB'er Sio Moore and perhaps a diamond in the rough in 6th round TE Mychal Rivera. Both Hayden and Watson were very raw prospects but had high upsides. This is his make or break year as GM, 60+ million in cap space and all but one of their draft picks in this class (their 5th round pick belongs to Seattle as part of the Flynn trade and they do have an additonal 7th from the Palmer trade). He won't be making any Madden trades this year with his job potentially on line.

What you think of future first round picks is your opinion, but is widely known and commonly mentioned that future 1st round picks are valued by NFL teams as being worth the 32nd or 33rd pick of the draft. Team are not in the business of assuming or trying to assume where the pick might fall the next year. Thus it possesses little to no current value.

Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
There is a much better chance of improving your team and filling more holes with 2 selections early in the draft this year and a 1st rounder next year, and your still going to get your impact player but it will be a year late. Your acting like Oakland is 1 impact player away from going to the playoffs. While anything could happen it is very unlikely in that division. The players that have the best shot at helping Oakland now would be manziel or maybe bridgewater but with so many qb needy teams before them it is unlikely Oakland will get those players, not to mention the teams behind them that need a qb and could trade up.

I have just as much logics and facts in my posts as you do. Just because my bar isn't all red like yours doesn't mean s**t.

Dwayne Bowe and Roddy White did not look like themselves this year. Roddy White was injured majority of the year and idk what was going on with bowe, maybe some of it was smith. So sanders had a better year than one of their down years, big deal. Your acting like he is a better receiver than those 2 and that is clearly not the case. Again someone might offer him more than 3 years 10 mil but if he wants a good chance at a ring than he'll take less. He could look for the most money possible sure, but he could also take less and play with a contender. Please stop acting like sanders is a #1 caliber receiver when he was the 3rd receiver for most of his career.

When we signed Dorsey he was going to be a backup for us. I would think at least 1 team offered him more money and at least 1 other team offered him a starter position or an opportunity to start. He decided to sign with us for a team friendly deal and the chance at getting to a superbowl. Why would Arthur Jones choose us over the ravens? Maybe he wants to play on a better team, maybe he likes the cali weather. Your assuming that he has no chance to start but he could very well start. You give that player a chance to compete with the starter and let the best man win.

Isn't raymac coming off of an injury where he lost some strength in one of his biceps? Arthur Jones like you said played damn well last year for a 3-4 defensive end. Maybe the contract was on the cheap side, but unless you can tell me definitively who he will sign with and why than you can't tell me it WON'T happen.

Ok so talib has had some issues but he is still more talented than brown. How about B flowers who made 5.25 this year? Or cromartie at 4.3? Out of all the corners in the NFL only 13 make more than 5 mil a year. Do you think brown deserves to be one of those corners? I doubt a team is going to offer him much more than the 49ers and he will probably take a little less and stay with us.

How would Oakland be getting an Impact player a year late, when the likelihood is they would be getting a late first round pick from us ? And impact players are harder to come by at the end of the first round than they are in the top 5. They are not going to assume or try to playing guessing games as to where the pick might fall. Your opinion may be that Manziel or Bridgewater help them the most, but they may disagree. Perhaps Bortles is their guy, or perhaps they like a QB a little later on (Mettenberger, McCarron, Carr etc)...perhaps they have eyes for a different prospect at 5.

Sanders may not have to take less to have a chance at a ring. Maybe teams like Indy, Philly, Green Bay or Carolina will offer him more money, and all those teams will be in the discussion as contenders. Players get their cake and end up with contenders all the time, Sanders does not have to take less money to play for a contender. I never said he was better than the guys I mentioned, simply pointing out statistics are not the end all be all to a players value. Sanders won't be the most coveted free agent WR but there are a lot of teams who could and should have interest.

Arthur Jones will likely be more coveted on the open market than Dorsey was. He was playing at a higher level last year than Dorsey did in his final year with the Chiefs. And by all accounts, it did not seem like Dorsey wasn't getting a whole lot of interest on the market last year. Jones is deemed by most to be one of the more desirable lineman on the free agent market this year. If he wants to play for a deal like you fantasized, he could probably get a similar one from the Pats and go play with his brother or stay with the Ravens. I'll let you believe you are right, and I will look forward to bumping this thread when they sign for more money than in your dream scenario.

Cromartie signed a 4 year 32 million dollar deal in 2011. Since then he restructured it, and made 840k in base this year, the 4.3 is next year. BUT he got a s**t ton in bonus money and or converted bonus money upon restructuring. Flowers signed a 6 year 49 million dollar deal in 2011 that saw him get a 10 million dollar signing bonus up front and another 4 million dollar bonus this past offseason. He also stands to make 2 million dollar reporting bonuses each year for the next 3 years. Given that Sean Smith got 3 years 19 million and Grimes got a one year deal at 5.5 mill, Brown will almost certainly sign a contract that exceeds 4 years at 19 million dollars.

Again your acting like you can't get impact players in the 2nd or 3rd round. I would think a team that is rebuilding would want the chance to have 3 high draft picks including a future 1st that could be anything rather than 1 top 5 pick. The raiders have been pretty bad at drafting players in the past 10 seasons so maybe they feel more comfortable with drafting 3 players as opposed to 1. (McFadden, Russel, Heyward-Bey, Hayden ect.) Besides Hayden, those guys were all top 10 picks right? You have a better chance at landing a good player with 3 picks as opposed to 1.

You don't know for a fact that this is a make or break year for the GM so don't make the statement as if it is a fact. The raiders are probably looking at Baalke and what he has done with the 49ers to sustain a dominant franchise. There was the year when we took 2 O-lineman in the 1st round. There was last year and this year when we had a bunch of draft picks. The Raiders might want to put themselves in a position to dominate next year's draft by adding another 1st round pick, and those picks both COULD be early picks like the rams. Maybe they want Winston. They wouldn't be giving up on this year either like you think they are. They would still have 2 2nds and 2 3rds which isn't shabby.

I think teams have learned from the RG3 draft day deal, Ricky Williams, and Walker trade not to invest so many draft picks into 1 player. Therefor I think the price to move up on draft day is less than it used to be.

Teams are def in the business of assuming where draft picks will end up next year. Would you rather get a 1st round pick from the 49ers or the Raiders?

Again you make a statement that you do not know is fact. It is widely known that a future 1st round pick is valued as the 32nd or 33rd pick in the draft. How many NFL GMs do you know? Even if that was the case in years past, how do you know that is still the case now? You don't.

As far as sanders goes, I doubt GB INDY or Philly will want his services. They all have plenty of talent at receiver. Wayne and Hilton in INDY, Nelson and Cobb and maybe jones in GB and D JAX and either Maclin or Cooper in Philly. Depends on who they want to keep. Plus we all know that the 49ers have a better shot at winning it all than those teams and we have more of a need at WR. Like you said he won't be the most coveted free agent either so that drops his value. Welker is a much better player than sanders and settled for 6 Mil a year, so IMO 3.3 Mil for sanders is reasonable.

The Ravens have a lot invested into key players on their team. Rice, Flaco, Ngata and Suggs. It is unlikely that they will fork over a big payday to Jones as well. The Pats have a lot invested into Wilfork, Brady, Gronk, their o-line and will probably pay talib as well. Jones is going to get more money than the contract in my "fantasy", I agree. Ricky-Jean got overpaid, and I don't think a team will do the same with Jones. 5 Mil would probably be the ballpark, but still if he wants the best chance at a SB he will take less than 5 Mil.

Brown is not as good of a player as cromartie or flowers. They got roughly 8 mil a year but keep in mind they were also quite a bit younger than brown when they signed their contracts. Brown is 29 years old and coming off of a down season IMO. Since Brock had a better season IMO and is younger but still only got around 4 mil a year, what makes you think brown is going to demand that much more? The only reason I even see brown getting more is his experience and familiarity with the defense. Sean Smith is also a bigger, more physical and younger corner.

I got my 1st cap numbers from a site that only had base salaries and didn't notice it said that. Sorry for the inaccuracies.
[ Edited by JimDrinkAMiller on Feb 6, 2014 at 3:39 PM ]
Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
Originally posted by MC9BEAT:
Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
Originally posted by MC9BEAT:
Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
Originally posted by MC9BEAT:
Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
Originally posted by MC9BEAT:
Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
Originally posted by Ninefan56:
I would not see Baalke sacrificing a 1st round pick in the future - not like him, and not good policy to bankrupt the future when there are other quality players available. I could see Baalke trade up to get Clinton Dix of he were near enough, to settle the Safety spot. So we have plenty of picks to address each need that we have - SS, two CBs, Two WRs, OG, OT, C, RB, DT, ILB.

I don't see a need at ILB as bowman should be back by week 4. I think we have enough to get by until then. I don't see how we are sacrificing the future by getting rid of 1 1st round pick either. We get the OG of the future in amini, get 1 great prospect and 2 decent veterans at receiver, 1 great prospect at SS and C. Let's see what we have in Lattimore before we use a high pick on another RB, see if Williams is any better than dorsey who played well this year. OT was addressed IMO and I like what we have at corner with Cully coming back and Rogers gone. Thanks for your input though, this is my 1st mock and I'm sure it isn't quite up to par with some others.
Would be nice but not likely to happen. The #5 pick on the draft pick chart is worth aprox 1700 pts and the pick you trade, a future 1st a late 2nd and an early 3rd are basically worth about 1150-1200 pts. Oakland would be getting screwed. they probably wouldn't do it if they could have our 1st this year plus a 2nd and a 3rd.
With so many QB's slated to go early in the draft Oakland may feel a need to take one. Even if they don't other teams may make them much better offers to trade down to get 1 of those QB's.

I think you left our comp pick out. We have a compensatory pick coming which should be a 3rd or 4th round pick giving us a total of 7 picks in the 1st 4 rounds.

Would love to have Sammy Watkins.

I didn't know where exactly the comp pick was so I just left it out, I would probably use it at corner though.

I don't know anything about the point system but I explained in above posts why I think the trade could happen. I think this draft is more likely to happen than others where I see posters drafting 14+ players.

I also see the qbs getting scooped up in the 1st 4 picks, at least manziel and bridgewater but probably bortles too. I also don't think a team will go all out for carr.

Can you tell me what the point system was on oakland's trade down last year and the 49er's trade up last year? I would appreciate it.

This also wouldn't be the 1st time oakland f**ked themselves in the draft.
There is a draft chart at the top of the draft war room section.

Baalke is great at getting the better of GM's in draft trades. Still, for a QB or if Sammy Watkins is sitting there Oakland could probably drop back 10 spots and get a 2nd rounder from someone who wanted either. A better 2nd rounder than 1 of our late ones. That would put them at 15 and they could move back another 6 spots and get a 3rd rounder and still be sitting at the 21st pick this year instead of around 30 next year in the 1st round and get their extra 2nd and 3rd. Top ten picks are hard to acquire. Maybe for 2 1st rounders but even that would be light because they know they would be very late picks. Remember, the Raiders pick again 6 picks after our 1st rounder. Our 1st round pick isn't worth much more than their 2nd rounder. If they don't take a QB they will probably want Watkins for themselves. To pass on that they will want a lot.


Thanks and you bring up very good points.. The only thing I disagree with is that your assuming the pick will be the 30th next year too. It probably will be but it also could be the 5th pick if we have some major injuries. Then that pick would also be worth 1700 points or w/e, you have a better chance of improving your team with 3 quality picks than with 1, and the raiders have A LOT of needs. If other offers aren't on the table for the raiders like last year then this trade could happen.
The raiders would be trading the 5th pick in the draft for a late 2nd and early 3rd this year. How does that make them a better team? That would be a step back for this season and THEY would assume up front the 1st rounder next year would be a late pick and it's next year so they have to wait for it to boot. It's possible they would consider it if we gave them this year's 1st rounder plus the 2nd and 3rd in place of next years but even then it would be a long shot.

Anything is possible. Maybe they would swap 1st rounders with us if we were to throw in LaMichael James and Quinton Dial but I doubt it. They probably covet Sammy Watkins as much as we would and I guarantee others would too. If they look to trade the pick they will get way better offers.

If we were trading for seattle's or denver's 1st rounder next year we would assume for value's sake the pick would be a late pick wouldn't we?

As for the 3 quality picks. A good GM could trade the 5th pick back to the end of the 1st round and get way more than 2 more quality picks.

There is always the hope they have brain damage but it is unlikely. If it were close maybe. Maybe we could get them to go for it if we gave them both 2nd rounders plus a 3rd and next years 1st. If you really want Watkins you are going to have to hope he falls in the draft to around 12th or so to put it in reach. I doubt Watkins is even on the 49ers radar because of what it would cost to get him.

Again they are building for the future. I don't think any impact player in this draft could get the raiders to the playoffs in the division they play in, assuming peyton plays again next year.

The raiders don't have a good gm. Look what he did last year. Traded down 9 spots and then took a corner who had major health concerns.

If I traded for seattle's 1st round pick than I would assume it would be a better pick than this year. You have no spots to go down but 32 spots to go up. Therefor IMO Seattle's pick next year would automatically be more valuable than this year. That's the problem I see with the point system.

As far as the 49ers go.. We have been in the nfc championship for 3 years in a row and most of those years we were lucky to not sustain too many key injuries. One could only hope we are that fortunate again this year. I would think a GM would see our pick next year as more valuable because again we're picking 30th this year and have 29 spots we could move up as opposed to only 2 spots we could slide down. Not to mention we are in the toughest division in football and the rams are going to get a hell of a lot better in this draft.
If I were trading for the Seahawks #1 I would assume it would be in the mid 20's or later. Same with the 49ers pick. Anything better would be bonus time. I would give you value based on that. Any good GM would feel the same way. Most GM's would rather have our 1st rounder this year rather than next year. Why? Because it's this year! Having to wait loses some value. The common rule outside of round 1 is a pick next year is worth 1 round less than this year. It is common for teams to trade 2nd round picks this year for 1st round picks next year. A 3rd round pick this year for a 2nd round pick next year and so forth and so on. The 25th pick next year isn't worth the 30th pick this year.

I would rather have Seattle's 1st rounder this year rather than next year even though next year's would most likely be earlier because it would help us now. Not too mention this is a very deep draft and the 32nd pick this year may be a better value than say the 25th pick next year because of that depth.

If Seattle offered us their 1st round pick next year for our two 2nd round picks this year would you take it in hopes they had a bad season and the pick was really good? I would assume for value comparison the pick would be 25th-32nd and if it was any better that would just be a free bonus I got.

I would love it if the Raiders agreed to your terms. Just don't hold your breath.

Again you bring up some really good points that are hard to argue with. If seattle offered us their 1st pick next year for our 2 2nd round picks than it would be hard for me personally to pass up. Our picks are later in the round so they aren't as valuable. We would still have 11 picks this year and set ourselves up nicely for the draft next year. We could still bunch up picks and get back in the 2nd or even 1st if needed.

I think a better comparison would be us trading the 30th pick for a 3rd and 4th this year plus a 2nd and 6th next year which I probably wouldn't do with our current team since we aren't rebuilding, but if it were the Raiders than I would.

I agree that this draft class is deep and it will be harder to make trades like last year when the class wasn't as talented. Usually when you trade a pick this year for a future pick than it is a round higher but that isn't always the case. I've seen scenarios where all that was gained was a pick in the future in the same round, or a pick in the same round plus a late day draft pick.
I wish we could get Watkins. He is as close to a slam dunk as you can get in this draft. I hope we get Boldin back but we may very well lose him. That is why I want to draft 2 receivers. A better chance at least 1 pans out and if they both do then we finally have some depth at WR. Unfortunately if Watkins is still there at #5 and there are some QB's left as well projected high if the Raiders don't use the pick they will get high offers for it. It would take a lot to get them to pass on Watkins unless they see their QB of the future. There are some good WR's we could target in the 1st or 2nd round and we could add another in the 3rd round giving us some depth.

We have 7 picks in the 1st 4 rounds. We can draft 2 CB's, SS, Center, DT and still have 2 picks left. Throw in 2 WR's and we are set. We might even draft the 2nd CB in the 5th or 6th round giving us an extra early round pick to work with. We have options and firepower in this draft.
I did not make the statement that McKenzie's job will be on the line as fact....

He won't be making any Madden trades this year with his job potentially on line.

All those past Raiders picks were Al Davis choices, and now the franchise is run by Mark with GM Reggie McKenzie making the draft day decisions. Hayden can't be declared a bad pick at this point because he has one year of development under his belt. There is plenty of time for him to develop and live up to his draft status, and plenty of high draft picks who have taken 2-3-4 years to begin to live up to that status.



Our 1st, both 2nd's (56 & 61) and both 3rd's (77 & 94) add up to 1401 points or enough to get us up to # 8. The last trade that comes close to mimicking the move from 30 to 5 was the Falcons deal with Cleveland which sent picks 27, 59, 124 + a future 4th round pick. 27, 59 & 124 add up to 1038 points, leaving the difference between the charts value for 6 (1600) and those 3 picks that had numerical values on the chart (which added up to 1038) at 562 points. The lowest values of rounds 1 & 4 add up to 634 points which brings it all pretty close...the Falcons gave up a few points by throwing in that additional 4th round pick but one can call that a "sweetner" because Cleveland had all the leverage.

The 49ers traded 31 & 74 last year for 18. Dallas lost out on 80 points but the values were close enough and Dallas may have been happy to move back if their draft board at 18 had no one who they coveted being rated that highly.

The 49ers traded 45, 108 & 141 to move up from 45 to 36 to select Kap. The total points value of our 3 picks were 563.5, the Broncos #36 pick is valued as 540 points on the chart. Denver had the leverage so we gave up a few points to assure we got the deal done and to get in position to get our guy.

Now there are plenty of examples where trades don't match up closely with point values, but they have to be looked at case by case. Like the deal for Reid last year, Dallas could have pressed for more but the fact that a deal got done without apparent pressing may be an indication of what I mentioned, no player was of good value for them at 18 given their needs, wants and what was available on their draft board. They did need safety help, but that doesn't mean they had the same grades on Reid we did. Every teams draft board is different, and not all teams have the same value on a prospect. The trade value chart is not the end all be all but it does reflect what most everyone already knows, top 5 picks are highly valuable, much more so than late 2nd or mid 3rd round picks. And lots of teams apparently still use it as a reference or jumping off point in working towards getting a deal done.

And here you sit thinking that 56 & 77 (545 points) + a 2015 1st round pick is enough to get up to 5 ? Assigning the first lowest point value to the future first brings us up to 13-14...assigning the point value to match up closer with the trade chart would be assuming the future 1st is worth the 11th pick. Oakland is NOT going to assume a future first from us is about the 11th pick in the draft. Oakland has all the leverage in such a deal with us, as the 5th pick could net them an elite prospect from this draft class at a premium position where they have needs (LT's Matthews or Robinson should they not resign Veldheer...Pass Rushers Jadeveon Clowney should he slide which would not be unprecedented, Anthony Barr who some think could be another Von Miller type, and of course QB's Bridgewater, Manziel, Bortles and maybe Carr who some feel is a top 10 worthy pick). Oakland is not picking for immediate impact they are picking guys who can help turn this franchise around and be with them for 10+ years. Those guys who go in the top 5, those elite prospects are the ones who can help excite the fanbase, and who can help the team sell more tickets, more merchandise, net them more media attention and more interest in their teams.

Would you have been okay with trading #7 in 2011 for 56, 77 and a future 1st from a team who had been to the last 3 Conference Championship games and appeared to likely be picking along the back end of the first round again the following year ? Fans around here would have called for Baalke's head and rightfully so for making a bad trade. But it's safe for me to assume that you would have been okay with it right, because you think it's okay for Oakland to make this move ?

There is no precedent for a team trading so little to move up that much, so to think Baalke is going to absolutely fleece Reggie McKenzie is living in a fantasy land. You seriously undervalue top 5 picks in the NFL draft and just what their value is.

As far as the free agent deals go, Arthur Jones has played much better and at a higher level than RJF. And there is a long history of players being overpaid and it happens every single year. This year will be no different and some guys will get more than their worth while others will still come close to what they are asking. Same for Sanders...today there is a rumor circulating that the Jets may have interest in Sanders, and I am sure other teams will. Even those that you think will not (Indy - who without Wayne showed they need more WR help, GB & Philly - both use a lot of 3 and 4 WR sets and both have pending players who could hit the market in Maclin and Jones, Carolina - need for WR help) could actually end up being interested, amongst a slew of other NFL teams who could have legit interest, and some of those teams could surprise as we have seen before teams shock by signing a free agent nobody saw coming (Aso to Philly came out of nowhere at the 11th hour a couple years ago).
So, we aren't going to trade up to the 5th pick. At least, not for what you have proposed.

As a point of comparison, in 2011 Atlanta traded up to the 6th overall pick to grab Julio Jones. They gave up: 2011 1st (27th overall), 2011 2nd rd, 2011 4th rd. and 2012 1st and 4th. That's five picks total, with two first rounders. They moved up 21 spots.

You are proposing to move up 25 spots for three picks - a 2 and 3 in 2014 and a 1 in 2015. Ain't gonna happen.
Originally posted by midrdan:
So, we aren't going to trade up to the 5th pick. At least, not for what you have proposed.

As a point of comparison, in 2011 Atlanta traded up to the 6th overall pick to grab Julio Jones. They gave up: 2011 1st (27th overall), 2011 2nd rd, 2011 4th rd. and 2012 1st and 4th. That's five picks total, with two first rounders. They moved up 21 spots.

You are proposing to move up 25 spots for three picks - a 2 and 3 in 2014 and a 1 in 2015. Ain't gonna happen.

We have the ammo to move up, and maybe if we did we might be able to go up for a little less than what Atlanta did. But it will not be for this guys proposed fantasy scenario. It will require our 2014 1st round pick (#30) and obviously other picks or players (LMJ ?) packaged together to make such a move happen.
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Stopped reading after I saw this:

Leaving-
Anquan Boldin

On top of that:

Re-signing T. Brown for 4 yrs at $19 million.

Next..............
1st you did make the statement that his job was on the line.

You stated that with all of his draft picks and 60 + mil in cap space that this is a make or break year for him. That sounds to me like his job is on the line.

2nd I personally think the point system for draft picks is flawed. Your telling me that the #1 pick is worth more than the 7th and 8th pick? Or that it is worth more than the 16th 17th and 18th pick? Or finally that it is almost the same value as the 28th 29th 30th 31st and 32nd overall picks in the draft? Those picks are equal to 3110 points. I find that hard to believe. I will say it again, the falcons got shafted in their trade just like the redskins did. I believe KC was trying to trade out of the 1st pick last year but teams aren't willing to fork over a ridiculous amount of draft picks anymore. Walker was traded fpr 18 picks and players, Williams for an entire draft class. That number has significantly decreased in recent year with the RG3 Jones and other trades. The one thing that is constant is change and teams are starting to catch on. Perhaps you aren't.


I think teams are starting to realize that a player, no matter how good he is, is not worth all those draft picks. Players get injured, retire early, ask to be traded and can be headcases. Julio Jones for instance is not worth the 5 draft picks that Atlanta gave up for him, and he's an absolute stud, but he spent majority of his season on the sidelines. You know the story with Ricky Williams and the walker story so I won't go into more detail.

Just because most of the raider's draft picks were Al Davis picks doesn't mean the raiders can't learn from their past mistakes. They've flopped at QB, WR, RB, Safety (huff), MLB (mcclain), and now I believe they've flopped again at corner. Oh and how about when they picked up janikoski in the 1st round? I don't care how much leg strength a kicker has, he is not worth a 1st round pick. My point is that they've been terrible at picking 1st round draft picks and their center has been their best early pick IMO and he wasn't a 1st round pick. So maybe they feel comfortable with more 1st round picks next year and an abundance of picks this year.

The raiders like you said didn't get a great value for their trade last year and neither did the cowboys. So who's to say this year will be any different? Yeah there might be more talent in this class but like I said things are different now. You don't know who the Raiders have their eye on and you don't know what they are willing to take for the #5 pick, so do me a favor and stop acting like you do. Like I said maybe they want Winston, they like big qbs with a lot of arm strength( ex. russel ). I believe Winston was the top qb in college and it wasn't even close, and don't say bortles is the prospect that Winston is because that would be a lie. By setting themselves up with 2 1st round picks next year, they set themselves up nicely to draft Winston in the future even if he doesn't come out for a couple years.

I agree that Oakland needs to bring in some talent for the future through the draft. I also agree that they should get a big name or 2, but they could also do that in FA with 60 mil in cap space. They have a lot of holes and won't fill them all with the #5 pick in the draft, and with their history of flopping I say the more draft picks the better. The more players you draft the more likely you'll find a gem. I'm sure a lot of fans were excited about a lot of Oakland's 1st round picks but where did that get them? A commitment to failure is where it got them.

Like I said before if I was rebuilding than I would be willing to trade the #7 pick for the picks you mentioned, but at the time I don't think the 49ers were rebuilding. I think they knew how close they were to having a good team so no I wouldn't have made the trade. It is CLEAR that Oakland is rebuilding. Who cares about what fans around here think. Apparently you do. If it is the right move than they would be happy about it in the end.

I already agreed that Arthur jones was undervalued, but I doubt he gets that big of a payday. He is a good player but he is not the caliber player that Campbell is in Arizona, ngata or watt. Sanders isn't going to break anyone's bank, like I said he's been a #3 receiver for most of his career. I doubt he gets much more than the contract I signed him for in my fantasy land.





Originally posted by KRS-1:
We have the ammo to move up, and maybe if we did we might be able to go up for a little less than what Atlanta did. But it will not be for this guys proposed fantasy scenario. It will require our 2014 1st round pick (#30) and obviously other picks or players (LMJ ?) packaged together to make such a move happen.

Again you act like our 1st round pick this year is much more valuable than our pick next year. If a team guts their whole team like the raiders did last year than I would assume their not expecting to win it all the following year. IMO if your trading with a team that has a bottom pick like the seahawks or the 49ers than you would assume the pick the following year would be more valuable even if it's only a couple of picks. Since the raiders gutted their team and play in the 2nd toughest division in football, they don't have to draft an impact player at #5, they could build the rest of their team and set themselves up nicely for next year to get a qb or whatever they choose.
Originally posted by m_brockalexander:
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Stopped reading after I saw this:

Leaving-
Anquan Boldin

On top of that:

Re-signing T. Brown for 4 yrs at $19 million.

Next..............

Do you not like brown? or do you think that's too cheap?

Boldin leaving wouldn't be that big of a deal at all. With players like decker maclin sanders and others in FA and a draft loaded with receivers.

Boldin is a good player but his stats this season were inflated. When your the only real receiving threat at WR than your going to get your yards. Besides having injuries at receiver (crabs, patton, ham) and even davis was injured at points in the season, we also traded jenkins and got rid of Williams.

Again boldin is good but he is overrated on here.
[ Edited by JimDrinkAMiller on Feb 7, 2014 at 12:38 PM ]
The Raider need a QB now not next year.

You do not understand the value of a top 5 pick.

This is not a mock it is a dream offseason that will not happen. Nobody is trading their top 5 pick for a late 2nd, mid 3rd and a future 1st.
Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
Originally posted by m_brockalexander:
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Stopped reading after I saw this:

Leaving-
Anquan Boldin

On top of that:

Re-signing T. Brown for 4 yrs at $19 million.

Next..............

Do you not like brown? or do you think that's too cheap?

Boldin leaving wouldn't be that big of a deal at all. With players like decker maclin sanders and others in FA and a draft loaded with receivers.

Boldin is a good player but his stats this season were inflated. When your the only real receiving threat at WR than your going to get your yards. Besides having injuries at receiver (crabs, patton, ham) and even davis was injured at points in the season, we also traded jenkins and got rid of Williams.

Again boldin is good but he is overrated on here.

I think many ppl around here think it's too cheap. But I don't think you are that far off. 5/6 million a year seems about right to me for Brown. I think Decker is overrated. Maclin is coming off injury so you aren't sure what you are going to get with him. I wouldn't mind picking him up while keeping Boldin. I like Sanders as well but I'd rather stick with Boldin for 2 more years while Patton and some draft picks develop. If Boldin is demanding much more than he made last year then of course you let him walk. But for about the same price tag he needs to be retained. No questions asked.
Originally posted by KRS-1:
The Raider need a QB now not next year.

You do not understand the value of a top 5 pick.

This is not a mock it is a dream offseason that will not happen. Nobody is trading their top 5 pick for a late 2nd, mid 3rd and a future 1st.

Of course it won't happen but how many mocks are actually close to what the 49ers actually draft?

You think you know what draft picks are worth because of your little chart but in reality your clueless like the rest of us.

Again your talking like you know what the raiders needs and plans are. The raiders don't have to draft a qb now.