MadDog's 2014 NFL Draft Pre-Combine Big 100 Board

Originally posted by SanFranFanfrmVa:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by SanFranFanfrmVa:
MadDog49er, The guy I want playing free safety for the 49ers next season is Lamarcus Joyner from Florida St. The days of knocking receivers out is over. Joyner is built in the mold of Earl Thomas and can cover all over the field. He can run with slot receivers and also come up and hit you in the mouth in the run game.

He is such a good player that I think he will make it in the NFL. However, when he comes in under 5'8", which is where he is listed right now, it simply limits what he can do. Expect him to be a terrific nickel corner in the NFL, covering slot guys like Welker and Amendola. He will end up at least two inches shorter than Earl Thomas, who is one of the smaller Safeties in the NFL. Call me a skeptic on his chances at safety in the NFL.

I can understand your concern but I've watched a ton of film on him and he plays/hits alot bigger then that. I can count on 1 hand how many jump balls have been thrown on Earl Thomas in 4 years. Scouts get caught up too many times with measurables/speed. Taylor Mays was a work out warrior but watch film on him and he couldn't cover a bank with a gun. Goldson/Whitner have all the measurables but time after time Julio Jones,Jacoby Jones and Doug Baldwin get behind them in the playoffs for big plays. I'll take the 5'8" Joyner all day in coverage while others will take Goldson/Whitner who give up big plays and 15 yard penalty's.

It's not so simple. Yes Mays had some measurables (although I bet his agility tests wouldn't be so great if he did them at the combine), but his film and stats were really really poor. Other players have everything except size and fail also. You just don't hear much about them (Ty Hill is one that always stands out to me). Sometimes good measurables predict success moreso than college production (Poe) and sometimes not (Vernon Gholston) Sometimes a player can overcome physical limitations (Matheua) and sometimes not. 5'8" is really really small. This is the guy who is supposed the bring down Lynch? The concern is not off-base. His skills are well noted, and is the only reason he's even being talked about at all, because his size should disqualify him from NFL considerations, if his athleticism and performance is anything short of extraordinary.

Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:

Originally posted by SanFranFanfrmVa:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by SanFranFanfrmVa:
MadDog49er, The guy I want playing free safety for the 49ers next season is Lamarcus Joyner from Florida St. The days of knocking receivers out is over. Joyner is built in the mold of Earl Thomas and can cover all over the field. He can run with slot receivers and also come up and hit you in the mouth in the run game.

He is such a good player that I think he will make it in the NFL. However, when he comes in under 5'8", which is where he is listed right now, it simply limits what he can do. Expect him to be a terrific nickel corner in the NFL, covering slot guys like Welker and Amendola. He will end up at least two inches shorter than Earl Thomas, who is one of the smaller Safeties in the NFL. Call me a skeptic on his chances at safety in the NFL.

I can understand your concern but I've watched a ton of film on him and he plays/hits alot bigger then that. I can count on 1 hand how many jump balls have been thrown on Earl Thomas in 4 years. Scouts get caught up too many times with measurables/speed. Taylor Mays was a work out warrior but watch film on him and he couldn't cover a bank with a gun. Goldson/Whitner have all the measurables but time after time Julio Jones,Jacoby Jones and Doug Baldwin get behind them in the playoffs for big plays. I'll take the 5'8" Joyner all day in coverage while others will take Goldson/Whitner who give up big plays and 15 yard penalty's.

It's not so simple. Yes Mays had some measurables (although I bet his agility tests wouldn't be so great if he did them at the combine), but his film and stats were really really poor. Other players have everything except size and fail also. You just don't hear much about them (Ty Hill is one that always stands out to me). Sometimes good measurables predict success moreso than college production (Poe) and sometimes not (Vernon Gholston) Sometimes a player can overcome physical limitations (Matheua) and sometimes not. 5'8" is really really small. This is the guy who is supposed the bring down Lynch? The concern is not off-base. His skills are well noted, and is the only reason he's even being talked about at all, because his size should disqualify him from NFL considerations, if his athleticism and performance is anything short of extraordinary.

Go watch some film on youtube and tell me if you think he can come up in run support and tackle. Scouts get too wrapped up watching a guy in Feb. run in a under armour t-shirt and shorts. I watch film of guys in pads to make my evaluations. Scouts look at Frank Gore and Zach Thomas on paper and say they can't play in the NFL but the film says otherwise. Lamarcus Joyner is a player and he stood out on a very good defensive team at Florida St.

Originally posted by SanFranFanfrmVa:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by SanFranFanfrmVa:

MadDog49er, The guy I want playing free safety for the 49ers next season is Lamarcus Joyner from Florida St. The days of knocking receivers out is over. Joyner is built in the mold of Earl Thomas and can cover all over the field. He can run with slot receivers and also come up and hit you in the mouth in the run game.

He is such a good player that I think he will make it in the NFL. However, when he comes in under 5'8", which is where he is listed right now, it simply limits what he can do. Expect him to be a terrific nickel corner in the NFL, covering slot guys like Welker and Amendola. He will end up at least two inches shorter than Earl Thomas, who is one of the smaller Safeties in the NFL. Call me a skeptic on his chances at safety in the NFL.

I can understand your concern but I've watched a ton of film on him and he plays/hits alot bigger then that. I can count on 1 hand how many jump balls have been thrown on Earl Thomas in 4 years. Scouts get caught up too many times with measurables/speed. Taylor Mays was a work out warrior but watch film on him and he couldn't cover a bank with a gun. Goldson/Whitner have all the measurables but time after time Julio Jones,Jacoby Jones and Doug Baldwin get behind them in the playoffs for big plays. I'll take the 5'8" Joyner all day in coverage while others will take Goldson/Whitner who give up big plays and 15 yard penalty's.

I tend to agree that people tend to overemphasize measurables in a player evaluation . However, in a league with tall, fast and big WR's, it is tough to see him playing at that size in that role.

Maddog, I think everyone can agree that Sammie Watkins is one heck of a talent. If you get time go watch video of Joyner covering him from this past season.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by Ninefan56:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by Ninefan56:
Thank you for the big 100. I think I ask you about this every year but maybe this year we will get it from you. Any plans on your evaluation board and any plans for your personal draft board after the combine? Any plans about your evaluation of what you think that the Niners will go for? Thanks for all of your input I think they are great.

Thanks. I always post my Best Available board, and this year will be no different. Proud to see my board in 2011 has produced Pro-Bowls from all of my top five: 1. AJ Green 2.Patrick Peterson 3. Von Miller 4. Marcel Dareus 5. JJ Watt.

Sorry for sidenote: JJ Watt was unstoppable last night. He completely humiliated Tyron Smith and abuse Jordan Gross and Joe Thomas. That was flat out. Two sacks, including a forced fumble, one or two deflections (I am forgetting), and caused two other sacks. Most dominant player in the game.

Will project what the Niners are interested in drafting. Would be surprised if they went offense. Just too many holes on defense, especially in the secondary. I think Reid is flexible to move to SS if needed. Maybe a DL as well. Age creeping up on Cowboy and McDonald (who has surprising held up physically in the NFL).

Thanks Maddog, I appreciate all of the info you share with us. I personally think that the Niner have holes all through their team. I don't think that the Oline is as healthy as we need. C, Guard, and a developing tacklle are important. WR is self evident. And I think that having a power back to support Lattimore will be essential. We have a lot of Dline but if a quality dlineman was available to the team they might take him. Never too much OLB and Willis is getting up in age and Bowman's injury make ILB an important issue to settle. Then we have Whitner, Rogers, and Brown likely to leave so we have a lot of backfield issues. So lots of things need to be done. So I would like your personal assessment of who and why we need specific people and I would like your assessment of who the Niners are most likely to take and why. Thanks again.

I think we are going secondary right off the bat, best player available, in my opinion, Reid has the versatility to move to SS if needed. Expect the team to take a really long look at Jimmie Ward with that 30th pick, Would be surprised at all is Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix on the board at 30. Calvin Pryor makes a lot of sense to me. Of course, the team could surprise and go DL. Stephon Tuitt has the experience playing in ND's 34 alignment. One player that intrigues me a ton is UCLA's Xavier Su'a-Filo. Could he transition to center? That would be a curve ball pick for sure.

The NFL is surely a league that means Not For Long. All teams have holes going into the draft, and the Niners, with wise decisions, could fill many of these holes with quality picks.

Much of our player personnel matters will be tied to free agency and the health of guys like Lattimore and Carradine.

I agree with you about the secondary, but a lot of mocks are predicting a DL like Tuitt based on value. You mention some of the safeties that should be available at the end of the first, but which CB's should be available and draft worthy for the Niners at that spot?

s

Originally posted by m_brockalexander:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by Ninefan56:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by Ninefan56:
Thank you for the big 100. I think I ask you about this every year but maybe this year we will get it from you. Any plans on your evaluation board and any plans for your personal draft board after the combine? Any plans about your evaluation of what you think that the Niners will go for? Thanks for all of your input I think they are great.

Thanks. I always post my Best Available board, and this year will be no different. Proud to see my board in 2011 has produced Pro-Bowls from all of my top five: 1. AJ Green 2.Patrick Peterson 3. Von Miller 4. Marcel Dareus 5. JJ Watt.

Sorry for sidenote: JJ Watt was unstoppable last night. He completely humiliated Tyron Smith and abuse Jordan Gross and Joe Thomas. That was flat out. Two sacks, including a forced fumble, one or two deflections (I am forgetting), and caused two other sacks. Most dominant player in the game.

Will project what the Niners are interested in drafting. Would be surprised if they went offense. Just too many holes on defense, especially in the secondary. I think Reid is flexible to move to SS if needed. Maybe a DL as well. Age creeping up on Cowboy and McDonald (who has surprising held up physically in the NFL).

Thanks Maddog, I appreciate all of the info you share with us. I personally think that the Niner have holes all through their team. I don't think that the Oline is as healthy as we need. C, Guard, and a developing tacklle are important. WR is self evident. And I think that having a power back to support Lattimore will be essential. We have a lot of Dline but if a quality dlineman was available to the team they might take him. Never too much OLB and Willis is getting up in age and Bowman's injury make ILB an important issue to settle. Then we have Whitner, Rogers, and Brown likely to leave so we have a lot of backfield issues. So lots of things need to be done. So I would like your personal assessment of who and why we need specific people and I would like your assessment of who the Niners are most likely to take and why. Thanks again.

I think we are going secondary right off the bat, best player available, in my opinion, Reid has the versatility to move to SS if needed. Expect the team to take a really long look at Jimmie Ward with that 30th pick, Would be surprised at all is Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix on the board at 30. Calvin Pryor makes a lot of sense to me. Of course, the team could surprise and go DL. Stephon Tuitt has the experience playing in ND's 34 alignment. One player that intrigues me a ton is UCLA's Xavier Su'a-Filo. Could he transition to center? That would be a curve ball pick for sure.

The NFL is surely a league that means Not For Long. All teams have holes going into the draft, and the Niners, with wise decisions, could fill many of these holes with quality picks.

Much of our player personnel matters will be tied to free agency and the health of guys like Lattimore and Carradine.

I agree with you about the secondary, but a lot of mocks are predicting a DL like Tuitt based on value. You mention some of the safeties that should be available at the end of the first, but which CB's should be available and draft worthy for the Niners at that spot?

Thanks Maddog and Brock. It will be an exciting draft and I love the curveball idea. I do think our Oline needs an infusion of pass protection as well as size and agility.

MadDog if you need some place to upload your files, shoot me a PM, and I can on my site like in past years.

Originally posted by SanFranFanfrmVa:

Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:

Originally posted by SanFranFanfrmVa:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by SanFranFanfrmVa:
MadDog49er, The guy I want playing free safety for the 49ers next season is Lamarcus Joyner from Florida St. The days of knocking receivers out is over. Joyner is built in the mold of Earl Thomas and can cover all over the field. He can run with slot receivers and also come up and hit you in the mouth in the run game.

He is such a good player that I think he will make it in the NFL. However, when he comes in under 5'8", which is where he is listed right now, it simply limits what he can do. Expect him to be a terrific nickel corner in the NFL, covering slot guys like Welker and Amendola. He will end up at least two inches shorter than Earl Thomas, who is one of the smaller Safeties in the NFL. Call me a skeptic on his chances at safety in the NFL.

I can understand your concern but I've watched a ton of film on him and he plays/hits alot bigger then that. I can count on 1 hand how many jump balls have been thrown on Earl Thomas in 4 years. Scouts get caught up too many times with measurables/speed. Taylor Mays was a work out warrior but watch film on him and he couldn't cover a bank with a gun. Goldson/Whitner have all the measurables but time after time Julio Jones,Jacoby Jones and Doug Baldwin get behind them in the playoffs for big plays. I'll take the 5'8" Joyner all day in coverage while others will take Goldson/Whitner who give up big plays and 15 yard penalty's.

It's not so simple. Yes Mays had some measurables (although I bet his agility tests wouldn't be so great if he did them at the combine), but his film and stats were really really poor. Other players have everything except size and fail also. You just don't hear much about them (Ty Hill is one that always stands out to me). Sometimes good measurables predict success moreso than college production (Poe) and sometimes not (Vernon Gholston) Sometimes a player can overcome physical limitations (Matheua) and sometimes not. 5'8" is really really small. This is the guy who is supposed the bring down Lynch? The concern is not off-base. His skills are well noted, and is the only reason he's even being talked about at all, because his size should disqualify him from NFL considerations, if his athleticism and performance is anything short of extraordinary.

Go watch some film on youtube and tell me if you think he can come up in run support and tackle. Scouts get too wrapped up watching a guy in Feb. run in a under armour t-shirt and shorts. I watch film of guys in pads to make my evaluations. Scouts look at Frank Gore and Zach Thomas on paper and say they can't play in the NFL but the film says otherwise. Lamarcus Joyner is a player and he stood out on a very good defensive team at Florida St.

I'm not doubting his talents and abilities, but 5'8" is really really small. I'm not saying he can't or won't succeed, but size is not irrelevant. It's relevant. Some guys can overcome it. Others can't. Some can for some time, but ultimately break down (Bob Sanders?) I do like this player a lot, however, and wouldn't be upset at all if we got him. But I won't say that I won't be concerned.

Noticeable absence of Lache Seastrunk, RB out of Baylor. If (and it's a huge if) we decide to part ways with Gore (just conjecture given his cap #), I envision Seastrunk as an ideal replacement in the 2nd round.

Pretty good board. My thoughts:

2 Blake Bortles Central Florida QB - Not saying he won't go this high, but IMO he is definitely not that good. On just talent, I think he is a 2nd rounder-3rd rounder. Compared to Geno Smith I don't see a significantly increased value in Bortles (not saying they are similar skill sets).


8 Derek Carr Fresno State QB - Got to love this guys release and arm strength. But if he starts from day one, it could get ugly. His offensive scheme at Fresno State does not prepare him at all for NFL schemes. He needs time to learn. But the potential is definitely there. I mean at Fresno State they throw 20+ bubble screens a game, Carr is maybe asked to throw it 10 yards+ 5-6 times a game?

20 Ra'Shede Hageman Minnesota DT - I think he could rise by nature of being IMO the clear #1 DT.

24 Kelvin Benjamin Florida State WR - Too high IMO. I watched more of him and his hands need a lot of work. What does he drop? like 2-3 passes a game?

41 Allen Robinson Penn State WR - IMO Robinson and Benjamin should be swapped

49 Carl Bradford Arizona St DE/OLB - Glad to see my guy getting some love! I've been pumping this guy up all season. Can't wait to see his workout. Still a very raw player.

53 Jordan Matthews Vanderbilt WR - Seems a bit low to me for such a polished and accomplished WR

67 Kyle Fuller Virginia Tech CB - My favorite corner! Probably a good spot for him, but he will bring much more value to a team.

73 Trent Murphy Stanford LB - Love this player. This guy will be great in the NFL. Fast strong big talented smart nasty.

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Noticeable absence of Lache Seastrunk, RB out of Baylor. If (and it's a huge if) we decide to part ways with Gore (just conjecture given his cap #), I envision Seastrunk as an ideal replacement in the 2nd round.

Seastrunk suffers from Reggi Bush-itis. Runs horizontal constantly and gets away with it at the college level. He has to learn to be a more vertical runner for the NFL game.

Originally posted by SunDevilNiner79:

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Noticeable absence of Lache Seastrunk, RB out of Baylor. If (and it's a huge if) we decide to part ways with Gore (just conjecture given his cap #), I envision Seastrunk as an ideal replacement in the 2nd round.

Seastrunk suffers from Reggi Bush-itis. Runs horizontal constantly and gets away with it at the college level. He has to learn to be a more vertical runner for the NFL game.

Seems like he did a nice job of staying between the tackles here for the most part (though clearly only a snapshot of his career runs). I like his low center of gravity, ability to see the hole and explode through it and not get caught once he breaks into the clear. Not a lot of tread on the tires either which is what I like most.

Manzel is going #1

Originally posted by SanFranFanfrmVa:

Go watch some film on youtube and tell me if you think he can come up in run support and tackle. Scouts get too wrapped up watching a guy in Feb. run in a under armour t-shirt and shorts. I watch film of guys in pads to make my evaluations. Scouts look at Frank Gore and Zach Thomas on paper and say they can't play in the NFL but the film says otherwise. Lamarcus Joyner is a player and he stood out on a very good defensive team at Florida St.

Does youtube show lowlights as well as highlights?

I have to think that the scouts, as opposed to the draft pundits, actually watch these guys play--at least as much as we do.

Originally posted by SunDevilNiner79:

Pretty good board. My thoughts:

2 Blake Bortles Central Florida QB - Not saying he won't go this high, but IMO he is definitely not that good. On just talent, I think he is a 2nd rounder-3rd rounder. Compared to Geno Smith I don't see a significantly increased value in Bortles (not saying they are similar skill sets).


8 Derek Carr Fresno State QB - Got to love this guys release and arm strength. But if he starts from day one, it could get ugly. His offensive scheme at Fresno State does not prepare him at all for NFL schemes. He needs time to learn. But the potential is definitely there. I mean at Fresno State they throw 20+ bubble screens a game, Carr is maybe asked to throw it 10 yards+ 5-6 times a game?

20 Ra'Shede Hageman Minnesota DT - I think he could rise by nature of being IMO the clear #1 DT.

24 Kelvin Benjamin Florida State WR - Too high IMO. I watched more of him and his hands need a lot of work. What does he drop? like 2-3 passes a game?

41 Allen Robinson Penn State WR - IMO Robinson and Benjamin should be swapped

49 Carl Bradford Arizona St DE/OLB - Glad to see my guy getting some love! I've been pumping this guy up all season. Can't wait to see his workout. Still a very raw player.

53 Jordan Matthews Vanderbilt WR - Seems a bit low to me for such a polished and accomplished WR

67 Kyle Fuller Virginia Tech CB - My favorite corner! Probably a good spot for him, but he will bring much more value to a team.

73 Trent Murphy Stanford LB - Love this player. This guy will be great in the NFL. Fast strong big talented smart nasty.

What confuses me is the relationship between where a player will be drafted and how good the player is.

The list published is only a list of where MD thinks the player will be drafted--and nothing more.

It is not a ranking and it is not a mock.

This list is interesting. I think two clearly separate lists would be useful.

1. Approximation of where players will be drafted.
2. A ranking of players

Having two clearly distinct lists would make the discussion easier.

My guess is that most people still use the list as a ranking even though MD insists that it is not.