Originally posted by AB81Rules:
1st off the reserve/future contracts.
I believe the entire practice squad will be signed, either soon, or by the time I publish this.
I believe Mike Iupati's 2014 base will increase by $2.935M due to play time, and pro bowl
I also believe Alex Boone's 2014 base will increase by $1.05M for play time
And lastly I belive Ahmad Brooks deal will decrease by $1.6M for failing to reach 12 sacks.
We have, currently without these moves, $8,616,992 in cap room.
After these moves, we have $6,231,992 in cap room now.
Carlos Rogers - Saves $5,105,469
Jon Baldwin- Saves $1,377,765
Now we have around $12,715,226 in cap room.
Now we tender Michael Wilhoite at a 1-year $570,000 Exclusive Rights Tender.
We re-sign WR Kassim Osgood(Probably the easiest signing) to a 1-year $1.005M deal. Deal includes a $50K signing bonus, and a $955K base, but only counts $620,000 against the cap due to the minimum salary benefit program.
Then we re-sign CB Perrish Cox to a 1-year deal worth $645,000.
These moves leave us with $12,290,226 in cap room, thanks to the low base salaries, MSB program, and top 51 rule.
Now those movres leave us with the following free agents.
QB Colt McCoy
RB Anthony Dixon
WRs Anquan Boldin, and Mario Manningham
C Jonathan Goodwin
DE Demarcus Dobbs(RFA, but not tendered)
CBs Tarell Brown, and Eric Wright
SS Donte Whitner
PK Phil Dawson
I honestly don't see an issue with re-signing Boldin, Whitner, and Dawson.
I see Brown and Dixon leaving for more money. Dixon has turned into a decent/good back, but we have Lattimore back, and James/Hunter are backups, no space for him on the 53 man roster anymore.
McCoy I don't see back until week 2, since his salary would be guaranteed on week 1 of September 2014.
As for Goodwin, I don't see him here in 2014, unless the market is dry, and he come back on a 1yr deal worth under $1.5M
Now remember, I haven't even considered extending/restructuring Vernon Davis, Frank Gore, and Patrick Willis' contracts. (Note: Willis can't until late April due to CBA rules).
So we have plenty of space to retain the main 3 vets. And then with the extra cap room, we could try and get a quality player. But my money is on extending a few, maybe Dorsey, or Miller, or how about Boone?
My ideal contracts for the Main Three are below.
1st is Anquan Boldin, I would give him a 2 or 3 yr deal, with most of it guaranteed, and $6M a year average.
Boldin gets a $9M signing bonus, prorated over 3 seasons, at $3M a year.
2014- $1M base(Guaranteed), $3M prorated, and $250K roster bonuses. = $4.25M cap hit
2015- $3M base(Guaranteed), $3M prorated, and $250K roster bonuses. = $6.25M cap hit
2016- $4M base(Non Guaranteed), $3M prorated, and $250K roster bonuses. = $7.25M cap hit
I would add in incentives for yards, and TDs, maybe $500K for 1,000 yards, and an extra $250K for 8 TDs or more.
Dawson is next, I would do a simple 2 year deal, if he is willing to go 2 years.
Dawson would get a $2.5M signing bonus, prorated $1.25M a year for 2 years.
2014- $2M base, and $1.25M prorated. = $3.25M cap hit
2015- $2.5M base, and $1.25M prorated. = $3.75M cap hit
Whitner is last, I would do a $5M a year deal, it's fair value.
Whitner gets a $6M signing bonus, prorated at $1.5M over 4 years.
2014- $1M base, $1.5M prorated, $250K roster, and $100K workout. = $2.85M cap hit
2015- $2M base, $1.5M prorated, $250K roster, and $100K workout = $3.85M cap hit
2016- $4.25M base, $1.5M prorated, $250K roster, and $100K workout. = $6.1M cap hit
2017- $5M base, $1.5M prorated, $250K roster, and $100K workout. = $6.85M cap hit.
The deal is easy out after 2 years, similar to Alex Smith's, and Carlos Rogers' deals.
His 2014 base is guaranteed, and his 2015 base is 50% guaranteed, and becomes fully guaranteed on April 1, 2015.
Boldin would cost $4.25M in '14, Dawson $3.25M in '14, and Whitner $2.85M in '14.
That's a total of $10.35M for 2014. And due to the top 51 rule, that leaves us with $3,425,226 in cap room, and we signed our main 3 guys to contracts, and we can still get extensions done for Bruce Miller. He could lower his recently escalated base salary down back to $645K, and turn the portion into a signing bonus.
Miller's deal would be for 4 years. He would get a $2.5M signing bonus, which is $625,000 a year for 4 years.
Base salaries would be, $645K(14), $1.5M(15), $2M(16), and $3M(17), add in $100K workout bonuses to each year, and maybe some roster bonus, maybe $150K.
His salaries would be, $1,535,614(2014, Includes remaining $15,614 from his 2011 signing bonus), $2.375M(2015), $2.875M(2016), $3.875M(2017), a total of around $10M in new money.
We now would have $3,294,226 in cap room, and that didn't take more than $200K or so off the cap room.
So we wouldn't have to do too much to sign draft picks. But eventually we would need to create more cap room for possible extensions for Crabtree, Kap, and Aldon Smith. Plus for during the season.
I would however sign Chad Henne to a 1yr deal worth $2M.
Now our pre-draft roster.
My 2014 Mock Draft.
I expect a 3rd or 4th round pick for losing Dashon Goldson, I will say a 3rd, because of him playing most of the games, and his contract size.
We would have the following picks, without numbers.
I believe those are the order, based on records, for the rounds with more than 1 pick.
I believe we move up in round 1, and get a CB. My guy is Justin Gilbert, by the time draft time rolls around, he should be a top 20 pick.
I would deal our 1st, and TENs 3rd, since it's the same deal we did with Dallas, we gave them our 1st, and Carolina's 3rd.
Round 1.) CB Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State (Comes in as the 3rd CB right away, possibly starting while Cully gets truly 100% healthy)
Round 2a.) WR Jordan Matthews, Vanderbilt (We need another threat at WR, and he would compete with Patton for the 3rd WR spot)
Round 2b.) OG Gabe Jackson, Mississippi State (We need to think of the future, and LG is a need, i dont see Iupati here past 2014)
Round 3a.) SS Deone Buchannon, Washington State (Likely becomes a 2nd round pick, but this based off my current top 270)
Round 3b.) CB Ricardo Allen, Purdue (Gives us extra depth needed at CB, and fights for an active spot with Cox and Morris, plus has return ability)
Round 4.) C Tyler Larsen, Utah State (To compete wit Kilgore)
Round 5.) QB Brett Smith, Wyoming (Provides depth at QB)
Trade up in round 5 for QB Brett Smith, give up our highest 7th rounder.
Round 6.) TE A.C. Leonard, Tennessee State (former Florida Gator, and potential 3rd TE)
Round 7a.) DT Bruce Gaston, Pudrue (Adds depth and compete at NT)
Round 7b.) DE Cassius Marsh, UCLA (Adds depth, and compete at DE)
Round 7c.) RB Kapri Bibbs, Colorado State (PS Depth, and you never know)
Awesome work as always. I have been waiting for this for quite some time
. I remember you did a mock offseason a few months back where you had all the numbers figured and we would return Kaep, Crabtree, Aldon, and Iupati (I think Whitner was left out at the time). I'm not going to ask you to repost that, but do you at least remember what thread it fell under?
I definitely agree with switching out Donte Whitner for Mike Iupati. I like Iupati, but with the skills of Kaepernick, we are going to need someone that is better in pass protection. He is a great run blocker, but could get a ridiculous deal, over 6 million a year.
Now although the disappearance of Eric Wright at the end of the season is puzzling (I'm assuming it was a demotion), you don't think we should bring him back? He played fair enough when he got in and I'd be comfortable with him being anything from the #2 to the #5 corner. He's also likely to give a hometown discount. He is a good player that we can get for cheap, typical of Baalke FA signings, except in this case, he is our own free agent. I like the lineup of Chris Culliver, Tramaine Brock, Perrish Cox, Eric Wright, and Darryl Morris before any rookies are even added to the equation. It also puts us in a position where we don't absolutely have to give up that valuable third round pick to draft Justin Gilbert (who I do want, but I want a receivers more).
On another note, do you think it's wise to only draft one receiver? I can see Jordan Matthews as a replacement for Anquan Boldin or Michael Crabtree down the road, but we need to add one or two true deep threats. I can't see us going into 2014 with Vernon Davis as the only "speedster" on the team. We need some guys that can open things up for our other receivers and run game by pulling the extra safeties out of the box. I'd switch out the Ricardo Allen CB pick with someone in the mold of Odell Beckham (may have to go after him in the 1st/2nd however), Paul Richardson, Robert Herron, Tevin Reese, Brandon Cooks, or even a De'Anthony Thomas (using him more as a receiver in the slot). This team needs more speed on offense that defense have to respect and must account for. I also think a speedy receiver would contribute more next season than the second corner drafted.
I like most of the other picks. They fill immediate needs (Gilbert, Matthews, Buchanon) and gives depth at some other spots.
[ Edited by LifelongNiner on Jan 21, 2014 at 6:04 PM ]