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ABs 1st Post NFC Title Game Mock Offseason

1st off the reserve/future contracts.

I believe the entire practice squad will be signed, either soon, or by the time I publish this.

I believe Mike Iupati's 2014 base will increase by $2.935M due to play time, and pro bowl
I also believe Alex Boone's 2014 base will increase by $1.05M for play time
And lastly I belive Ahmad Brooks deal will decrease by $1.6M for failing to reach 12 sacks.

We have, currently without these moves, $8,616,992 in cap room.

After these moves, we have $6,231,992 in cap room now.

Cuts:

Carlos Rogers - Saves $5,105,469
Jon Baldwin- Saves $1,377,765

Now we have around $12,715,226 in cap room.

Now we tender Michael Wilhoite at a 1-year $570,000 Exclusive Rights Tender.

We re-sign WR Kassim Osgood(Probably the easiest signing) to a 1-year $1.005M deal. Deal includes a $50K signing bonus, and a $955K base, but only counts $620,000 against the cap due to the minimum salary benefit program.

Then we re-sign CB Perrish Cox to a 1-year deal worth $645,000.

These moves leave us with $12,290,226 in cap room, thanks to the low base salaries, MSB program, and top 51 rule.

Now those movres leave us with the following free agents.

QB Colt McCoy
RB Anthony Dixon
WRs Anquan Boldin, and Mario Manningham
C Jonathan Goodwin
DE Demarcus Dobbs(RFA, but not tendered)
CBs Tarell Brown, and Eric Wright
SS Donte Whitner
PK Phil Dawson

I honestly don't see an issue with re-signing Boldin, Whitner, and Dawson.

I see Brown and Dixon leaving for more money. Dixon has turned into a decent/good back, but we have Lattimore back, and James/Hunter are backups, no space for him on the 53 man roster anymore.

McCoy I don't see back until week 2, since his salary would be guaranteed on week 1 of September 2014.

As for Goodwin, I don't see him here in 2014, unless the market is dry, and he come back on a 1yr deal worth under $1.5M

Now remember, I haven't even considered extending/restructuring Vernon Davis, Frank Gore, and Patrick Willis' contracts. (Note: Willis can't until late April due to CBA rules).

So we have plenty of space to retain the main 3 vets. And then with the extra cap room, we could try and get a quality player. But my money is on extending a few, maybe Dorsey, or Miller, or how about Boone?

My ideal contracts for the Main Three are below.

1st is Anquan Boldin, I would give him a 2 or 3 yr deal, with most of it guaranteed, and $6M a year average.

Boldin gets a $9M signing bonus, prorated over 3 seasons, at $3M a year.

2014- $1M base(Guaranteed), $3M prorated, and $250K roster bonuses. = $4.25M cap hit
2015- $3M base(Guaranteed), $3M prorated, and $250K roster bonuses. = $6.25M cap hit
2016- $4M base(Non Guaranteed), $3M prorated, and $250K roster bonuses. = $7.25M cap hit

I would add in incentives for yards, and TDs, maybe $500K for 1,000 yards, and an extra $250K for 8 TDs or more.

Dawson is next, I would do a simple 2 year deal, if he is willing to go 2 years.

Dawson would get a $2.5M signing bonus, prorated $1.25M a year for 2 years.

2014- $2M base, and $1.25M prorated. = $3.25M cap hit
2015- $2.5M base, and $1.25M prorated. = $3.75M cap hit

Whitner is last, I would do a $5M a year deal, it's fair value.

Whitner gets a $6M signing bonus, prorated at $1.5M over 4 years.

2014- $1M base, $1.5M prorated, $250K roster, and $100K workout. = $2.85M cap hit
2015- $2M base, $1.5M prorated, $250K roster, and $100K workout = $3.85M cap hit
2016- $4.25M base, $1.5M prorated, $250K roster, and $100K workout. = $6.1M cap hit
2017- $5M base, $1.5M prorated, $250K roster, and $100K workout. = $6.85M cap hit.

The deal is easy out after 2 years, similar to Alex Smith's, and Carlos Rogers' deals.

His 2014 base is guaranteed, and his 2015 base is 50% guaranteed, and becomes fully guaranteed on April 1, 2015.

Boldin would cost $4.25M in '14, Dawson $3.25M in '14, and Whitner $2.85M in '14.

That's a total of $10.35M for 2014. And due to the top 51 rule, that leaves us with $3,425,226 in cap room, and we signed our main 3 guys to contracts, and we can still get extensions done for Bruce Miller. He could lower his recently escalated base salary down back to $645K, and turn the portion into a signing bonus.

Miller's deal would be for 4 years. He would get a $2.5M signing bonus, which is $625,000 a year for 4 years.

Base salaries would be, $645K(14), $1.5M(15), $2M(16), and $3M(17), add in $100K workout bonuses to each year, and maybe some roster bonus, maybe $150K.

His salaries would be, $1,535,614(2014, Includes remaining $15,614 from his 2011 signing bonus), $2.375M(2015), $2.875M(2016), $3.875M(2017), a total of around $10M in new money.

We now would have $3,294,226 in cap room, and that didn't take more than $200K or so off the cap room.

So we wouldn't have to do too much to sign draft picks. But eventually we would need to create more cap room for possible extensions for Crabtree, Kap, and Aldon Smith. Plus for during the season.

I would however sign Chad Henne to a 1yr deal worth $2M.

Now our pre-draft roster.

QB- Kaepernick/Henne/Bethel-Thompson
RB- Gore/Lattimore/Hunter/James/Hampton
FB- Miller/Tukuafu/Debniak
WR- Boldin/Crabs/Patton/Osgood/Jacobs/Wylie/Reed/Carswell
TE- Davis/McDonald/Celek/Carrier
C- Kilgore
OG- Iupati/Boone/Snyder/Looney/Seymour/Netter
OT- Staley/Davis/Bykowski/Marquardt

DE- Smith/McDonald/Tank/TJE/Okoye
NT- Dorsey/Williams/Dial/Purcell
OLB- Aldon/Brooks/Skuta/Lemonier
ILB- Bowman/Willis/Wilhoite/Moody
CB- Brock/Culliver/Cox/Morris/Swanson
FS- Reid/Dahl
SS- Whitner/Spillman/Ventrone

STs- Dawson/Lee/McDermott/Schmidt

My 2014 Mock Draft.

I expect a 3rd or 4th round pick for losing Dashon Goldson, I will say a 3rd, because of him playing most of the games, and his contract size.

We would have the following picks, without numbers.

Our 1st
KCs 2nd
Our 2nd
TENs 3rd
Our 3rd
Comp 3rd
Our 4th
Our 5th
Our 6th
INDYs 7th
NOs 7th
CARs 7th
Our 7th

I believe those are the order, based on records, for the rounds with more than 1 pick.

I believe we move up in round 1, and get a CB. My guy is Justin Gilbert, by the time draft time rolls around, he should be a top 20 pick.

I would deal our 1st, and TENs 3rd, since it's the same deal we did with Dallas, we gave them our 1st, and Carolina's 3rd.

Round 1.) CB Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State (Comes in as the 3rd CB right away, possibly starting while Cully gets truly 100% healthy)

Round 2a.) WR Jordan Matthews, Vanderbilt (We need another threat at WR, and he would compete with Patton for the 3rd WR spot)

Round 2b.) OG Gabe Jackson, Mississippi State (We need to think of the future, and LG is a need, i dont see Iupati here past 2014)

Round 3a.) SS Deone Buchannon, Washington State (Likely becomes a 2nd round pick, but this based off my current top 270)

Round 3b.) CB Ricardo Allen, Purdue (Gives us extra depth needed at CB, and fights for an active spot with Cox and Morris, plus has return ability)

Round 4.) C Tyler Larsen, Utah State (To compete wit Kilgore)

Round 5.) QB Brett Smith, Wyoming (Provides depth at QB)

Trade up in round 5 for QB Brett Smith, give up our highest 7th rounder.

Round 6.) TE A.C. Leonard, Tennessee State (former Florida Gator, and potential 3rd TE)

Round 7a.) DT Bruce Gaston, Pudrue (Adds depth and compete at NT)

Round 7b.) DE Cassius Marsh, UCLA (Adds depth, and compete at DE)

Round 7c.) RB Kapri Bibbs, Colorado State (PS Depth, and you never know)
good stuff like always lol,, love how we retain mostly everyone i want goodwin back
AB, thanks for the great read. A few thoughts/questions:

questions:
1) why does everyone assume Iupati is gone? Is it because the team has not yet re-signed him, or because his level of play hasn't matched his expected contract?
2) can you quickly give an overview (of if this is too long, maybe at some point create a separate thread) of how the salary cap works? what counts towards it, what doesn't, why not give everything as a signing bonus if that doesn't count towards the salary cap, or does it? Etc. That would be extremely interesting if you get the time.

comments:
1) I don't think there are enough WRs in your draft. I understand that with Crabtree, Boldin, Patten and Matthews we'll likely have 4 quality WRs, but a few things to consider: will Matthews be ready to play, or like Patten, will he need most of the year to adjust? will Crabtree demand more than he's worth? When will Boldin's age finally catch up to him? Sometimes that happens unexpectedly, like it did with Moss and the Pats. What if one of them gets hurt? And can any of them win consistently, 1-on-1 against Seattle's DB's? That has to be a question we ask. I like Matthews, but there's too much WR talent in this class to only come out with 1 player at the position.

2) I don't see appeal in Ricardo Allen. He's extremely small. This has become a game of length (JJ Watt, Sherman, Aldon Smith, Alshon Jeffries, AJ Green, Graham, Chancellor, Patrick Peterson, Calias Campbell, etc). Talented yet small players aren't making that type of impact (best small WRs today are DJax and Percy. Neither can stay healthy, and aren't actually all that productive from a numbers standpoint) in today's game. There aren't many corners that succeed at that size (Honey Badger is an exception to the small corners rule, but he's got top 5 explosiveness and instincts at the position). His production is ok, but not anything special. His history with punt returns has been minimal. I feel like this is a prospect who would be drafted largely based on 40 time. But short arms and lack of height scare me.

3) I think we need a more premium investment in a C. Goodwin's physical abilities are probably slightly below avg, but he's still a very effective leader of that line. If we are not convinced Kilgore could do it, and he can't handle it, the line could really start to fall apart. If that happens, our team is in a rough spot. We're not strong anywhere then. Receivers are good, but it's not like the group Denver or Atl have. DBs are ok, but not Seattle's. The DL is aging, and the youth is unproven. RBs/QB suffer behind a weak line. No dynamic return specialist makes our ST unit merely good, not great. All we have are elite LBs. We need that offensive line to stay dominant, and that means having a strong contingency plan, or strong competition for Kilgore at C. A ready starter. This draft has a few in the first 3 rounds, and I'm not sure we have a way around that if we don't address the position in FA.

Thanks again for one of the more interesting and detailed mock off-seasons. Look forward to seeing more
We can't go into the 2015 off season having not extended even 1 of the big 3. Why not use our draft capital to replenish and restock with younger cheaper players? I would like to have a sustainable winning franchise for more than just next season.
mock is solid, though I dont like that you go for another CB in the first three rounds.
we need a speedster at WR badly. I dont think that matthews is this type of a player.
  • buck
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 10,648
I have a question.

When is the deadline to resign players who will be free agents at the end of this year(Boldin, Goodwin, Brown et al)?
Love the Gilbert pick.
if we could come away with both Gilbert and Matthews, I'd be a very happy man. however, i'm beginning to see Matthews' stock rise even up to a late 1st rounder.
  • buck
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 10,648
Originally posted by LaMichaelJeff:
if we could come away with both Gilbert and Matthews, I'd be a very happy man. however, i'm beginning to see Matthews' stock rise even up to a late 1st rounder.

I want us to draft Matthews.

I think we might have to move up five or six spots in the first to get him.
Originally posted by ilikecows699:
good stuff like always lol,, love how we retain mostly everyone i want goodwin back

I wouldn't be against Goodwin back. Just he may retire, but he said we would like to stay. So maybe it happens.
Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
AB, thanks for the great read. A few thoughts/questions:

questions:
1) why does everyone assume Iupati is gone? Is it because the team has not yet re-signed him, or because his level of play hasn't matched his expected contract?
2) can you quickly give an overview (of if this is too long, maybe at some point create a separate thread) of how the salary cap works? what counts towards it, what doesn't, why not give everything as a signing bonus if that doesn't count towards the salary cap, or does it? Etc. That would be extremely interesting if you get the time.

comments:
1) I don't think there are enough WRs in your draft. I understand that with Crabtree, Boldin, Patten and Matthews we'll likely have 4 quality WRs, but a few things to consider: will Matthews be ready to play, or like Patten, will he need most of the year to adjust? will Crabtree demand more than he's worth? When will Boldin's age finally catch up to him? Sometimes that happens unexpectedly, like it did with Moss and the Pats. What if one of them gets hurt? And can any of them win consistently, 1-on-1 against Seattle's DB's? That has to be a question we ask. I like Matthews, but there's too much WR talent in this class to only come out with 1 player at the position.

2) I don't see appeal in Ricardo Allen. He's extremely small. This has become a game of length (JJ Watt, Sherman, Aldon Smith, Alshon Jeffries, AJ Green, Graham, Chancellor, Patrick Peterson, Calias Campbell, etc). Talented yet small players aren't making that type of impact (best small WRs today are DJax and Percy. Neither can stay healthy, and aren't actually all that productive from a numbers standpoint) in today's game. There aren't many corners that succeed at that size (Honey Badger is an exception to the small corners rule, but he's got top 5 explosiveness and instincts at the position). His production is ok, but not anything special. His history with punt returns has been minimal. I feel like this is a prospect who would be drafted largely based on 40 time. But short arms and lack of height scare me.

3) I think we need a more premium investment in a C. Goodwin's physical abilities are probably slightly below avg, but he's still a very effective leader of that line. If we are not convinced Kilgore could do it, and he can't handle it, the line could really start to fall apart. If that happens, our team is in a rough spot. We're not strong anywhere then. Receivers are good, but it's not like the group Denver or Atl have. DBs are ok, but not Seattle's. The DL is aging, and the youth is unproven. RBs/QB suffer behind a weak line. No dynamic return specialist makes our ST unit merely good, not great. All we have are elite LBs. We need that offensive line to stay dominant, and that means having a strong contingency plan, or strong competition for Kilgore at C. A ready starter. This draft has a few in the first 3 rounds, and I'm not sure we have a way around that if we don't address the position in FA.

Thanks again for one of the more interesting and detailed mock off-seasons. Look forward to seeing more

Thanks.

I was torn between Jackson, Swanson, and a WR with the 2nd #2 pick. Couldn't decide. Depending on who is there, I think we may very well take a guy like Jarvis Landry, or Martavis Bryant.

I like Allen. Maybe a guy like Fuller would be a good pick if not Allen.

I believe Larsen could come in and start, if they don't view it, I would say Swanson in rd 2 or trade up in rd 3.
Originally posted by communist:
mock is solid, though I dont like that you go for another CB in the first three rounds.
we need a speedster at WR badly. I dont think that matthews is this type of a player.

Yeah, true. Maybe a speedster is picked over Jackson.

For Iupati which I forgot. I think he will want too much. I hope I'm wrong, and we get him signed on the reasonable deal.
Originally posted by buck:
I have a question.

When is the deadline to resign players who will be free agents at the end of this year(Boldin, Goodwin, Brown et al)?

No real deadline. We can start once super bowl is over. Actually for 2011 picks I think we can start now.
I think you should just send this to Baalke. I like it a lot.
Been waiting all week for AB's post