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How accurate is the NFL draft advisory board?

They give prospects a NFL draft round that they think the prospect would get drafted in. Wondering how accurate they are. Anyone know?
  • GEEK
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Very hard to say because it doesn't take into consideration the combine, team interviews, and team needs that may overvalue the selection.
Yeah i dont know how accurate they are. Apparently they gave Stephon Tuitt a 2nd round grade, which I can't see right now. He is my #2 DE, and top 10-15 pick IMO, but that's right now.

Like GEEK said, a lot goes into combine, interviews, visits, etc..
Originally posted by AB81Rules:
Yeah i dont know how accurate they are. Apparently they gave Stephon Tuitt a 2nd round grade, which I can't see right now. He is my #2 DE, and top 10-15 pick IMO, but that's right now.

Like GEEK said, a lot goes into combine, interviews, visits, etc..

True, the combine really is more important than many people say. Why else would the NFL and all the teams invest so much time, effort and money to set up the event? Good points
  • buck
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Originally posted by kronik:
True, the combine really is more important than many people say. Why else would the NFL and all the teams invest so much time, effort and money to set up the event? Good points

Important at the combine for NFL teams

1. Uniform medical test results for the players who attend.
2. Position drills
3. Interviews
4. speed drills

Important for fans

1. 40 Time
2. 40 Time
3. Ht. and Wt.
Originally posted by kronik:
They give prospects a NFL draft round that they think the prospect would get drafted in. Wondering how accurate they are. Anyone know?

The way I heard it explained is that they give them a sort of "bottom-level" ranking based on where they stand now and if they have an average offseason. If they have a tremendous offseason then obviously they'll go a lot higher, if they f**k up, show up out of shape, get busted for DUI, things such as that, they'll drop off, but generally its kind of a realistic ballpark figure of where a prospect can be expected to be drafted.
  • GEEK
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 17,198
Originally posted by kronik:
Originally posted by AB81Rules:
Yeah i dont know how accurate they are. Apparently they gave Stephon Tuitt a 2nd round grade, which I can't see right now. He is my #2 DE, and top 10-15 pick IMO, but that's right now.

Like GEEK said, a lot goes into combine, interviews, visits, etc..

True, the combine really is more important than many people say. Why else would the NFL and all the teams invest so much time, effort and money to set up the event? Good points

Outside of the medical and measurables, the combine is pushed heavily by NFL corporate because it keeps football relevant all year long and adds another source of revenue (advertisements, promos, etc). But I still believe it does impact draft stocks at a deeper level than people realize.

Jun-Aug: Training Camp/Pre-Season
Sept-Dec: Regular Season
Jan: Playoffs/Coaching Changes
Feb: Super Bowl/Pro Bowl/Combine
Mar-Apr: Free Agency/Individual Workouts
May: NFL Draft
The advisory board is made up of guys who know the game well, so their voice is considered the standard in draft consideration. That being said, nobody is supposed to know the grade given, unless the player gives it up.

Side note as I am typing. Samantha Ponder is just interviewing her husband's replacement in Minnesota, Maziel. Wouldn't that be ironic?
  • buck
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Does anyone know the rating system that they use?

This is what I found. I do not know if it is accurate.

The board is composed of general managers and personnel directors from a number of NFL teams, along with the directors of the NFL's two scouting combines, BLESTO and The National.

The panel issues an advisory opinion that a player has potential to be picked:
in the first round
as high as the second round
as high as the third round
after the third round
in no round at all

or some range thereof. These apparently can include a specific opinion that a player will be drafted in the "third or fourth round"[5] or "first or second round",[6] which is usually known as a "first day" pick, because Round 1 is on the first day of the draft.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NFL_Draft_Advisory_Board

Another sources says this:

What kind of evaluation does the committee give back to the player?

When I would interview underclassmen at the Combine I would always ask them if they had submitted their name to the advisory committee for an evaluation and what grade did they get back. More often than not the player would say that the committee said "I would be drafted in the second half of the first round" or "I'd be a high 2." Sorry guys…that's not true. When a player gets his evaluation back it says:

1) You have the ability to be drafted as high as the 1st round.
2) You have the ability to be drafted as high as the 2nd round.
3) You have the ability to be drafted as high as the 3rd round.
4) You probably won't be drafted in the first three rounds but you may be drafted in rounds 4 through 7.
5) You probably won't be drafted.

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/How-does-the-NFL-College-Advisory-Committee-work.html
[ Edited by buck on Jan 1, 2014 at 6:34 AM ]
  • buck
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  • Posts: 11,354
a little more on the board from NFP

Who does the evaluations?

It used to be that only 7 or 8 teams did the evaluations but now every team in the NFL as well as the two Scouting Combines (National and Blesto) are involved. When the league receives the paperwork, they assign the evaluation to at least 4 different clubs as well as the two scouting combines. The league is not looking for an average grade but rather a consensus opinion. If the league does not feel they have a valid consensus, then they will have more clubs evaluate the player. The league wants to give the player the most honest opinion they can.

Is the evaluation a true indicator?

To an extent it is. The committee rates a player from what they have seen on tape and sometimes in person.

The problem they have is they don't have all the information that is necessary to make a complete evaluation. For example, they don't have verified measurables (height, weight and speed). They don't have accurate medical and injury information and they don't have character information. The reason they don't have all this information is because the colleges never give out this information to the NFL until the players are seniors.

Teams don't get the medical, height, weight and speed information until the Combine in February...two months after the player has asked for an evaluation! These are all criteria that can have an effect on where a player is drafted.

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/How-does-the-NFL-College-Advisory-Committee-work.html
[ Edited by buck on Jan 1, 2014 at 6:38 AM ]
Originally posted by kronik:
They give prospects a NFL draft round that they think the prospect would get drafted in. Wondering how accurate they are. Anyone know?

You take their valuations, crumple it, and throw it in the trash. It's way too early.
  • buck
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  • Posts: 11,354
Originally posted by pdizo916:
You take their valuations, crumple it, and throw it in the trash. It's way too early.

It is too early, but the board was a positive step. At least the evaluations are done by non-interested parties, by professional talent evaluators, and based on film study.

The board was set-up because college players were being given entirely unrealistic assessments by agents and others.
Originally posted by buck:
Does anyone know the rating system that they use?

This is what I found. I do not know if it is accurate.

The board is composed of general managers and personnel directors from a number of NFL teams, along with the directors of the NFL's two scouting combines, BLESTO and The National.

The panel issues an advisory opinion that a player has potential to be picked:
in the first round
as high as the second round
as high as the third round
after the third round
in no round at all

or some range thereof. These apparently can include a specific opinion that a player will be drafted in the "third or fourth round"[5] or "first or second round",[6] which is usually known as a "first day" pick, because Round 1 is on the first day of the draft.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NFL_Draft_Advisory_Board

Another sources says this:

What kind of evaluation does the committee give back to the player?

When I would interview underclassmen at the Combine I would always ask them if they had submitted their name to the advisory committee for an evaluation and what grade did they get back. More often than not the player would say that the committee said "I would be drafted in the second half of the first round" or "I'd be a high 2." Sorry guys…that's not true. When a player gets his evaluation back it says:

1) You have the ability to be drafted as high as the 1st round.
2) You have the ability to be drafted as high as the 2nd round.
3) You have the ability to be drafted as high as the 3rd round.
4) You probably won't be drafted in the first three rounds but you may be drafted in rounds 4 through 7.
5) You probably won't be drafted.

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/How-does-the-NFL-College-Advisory-Committee-work.html

Nice information there. Thanks
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