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AB's Top 300 Big Board for the 2014 NFL Draft, Plus Positional Rankings

Originally posted by JamesGatz83:
You really foresee a bidding war for Carr even with all of the other QB prospects available? Is there really that big a divide between Carr and Bortles and Manziel? I don't see it, but I'm not much of a Carr fan. I just don't see it with him. Plus, a lower YPA always scares me with college quarterbacks. It's a pretty good predictor of future success.

RG3 was at 10.7 in his final year. Russell Wilson was at 10.3 in his. Cam Newton was at 10.2.

YPA of some top QB prospects for comparison...
Jameis Winston ('15)... 10.9
Bryce Petty ('15)... 10.8
Zach Mettenberger ('14)... 10.4
Johnny Manziel ('14)... 9.5
Marcus Mariota ('15)... 9.5
Blake Bortles ('14)... 9.3
Tajh Boyd ('14)... 9.3
Teddy Bridgewater ('14)... 9.3

Derek Carr ('14)... Way down the list at 7.7

To me, Carr is a prospect similar to Kap in that he put up a ton of production against inferior competition. However, he lacks the unique physical tools Kap has and is, therefore, not nearly as projectable. The stink-bomb he laid in their bowl game against USC didn't help his case, either.

Wait until Carr begins to throw the ball in workouts. The dude has a serious legit NFL arm, the strongest in this class. Someone is going to fall in love and make that move forward. I am not saying he is going to be a solid NFL quarterback, but scouts will drool when they see him up and close sling the ball.

As for the YPA, part of that is the scheme FSU ran with the mountain of bubble screens, quick outs, etc. I think NFL teams see his arm strength and the ability to gun the ball down the field as a major asset.

As for the note on Clowney, teams may drool over his potential, but tape from 2013 does not lie. I think scouts are looking at tape, mortified that his motor shuts off way too quickly and consistently. The talent level takes a major leap forward in the NFL, and unless you are dedicated to the game, which I am not sure he is, the dominance we see at the lower level will not translate to the NFL. You better be hungry in the trenches, or you simply become mediocre at best.

As for being heavily schemed, that is fairly accurate. The problem is that after the first few games, many teams did not scheme him as heavily as early in the year, and he simply struggled against SEC OT's, even in one-on-one matchups. Three sacks is a pretty sad number for a guy with that level of talent.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Wait until Carr begins to throw the ball in workouts. The dude has a serious legit NFL arm, the strongest in this class. Someone is going to fall in love and make that move forward. I am not saying he is going to be a solid NFL quarterback, but scouts will drool when they see him up and close sling the ball.

As for the YPA, part of that is the scheme FSU ran with the mountain of bubble screens, quick outs, etc. I think NFL teams see his arm strength and the ability to gun the ball down the field as a major asset.

As for the note on Clowney, teams may drool over his potential, but tape from 2013 does not lie. I think scouts are looking at tape, mortified that his motor shuts off way too quickly and consistently. The talent level takes a major leap forward in the NFL, and unless you are dedicated to the game, which I am not sure he is, the dominance we see at the lower level will not translate to the NFL. You better be hungry in the trenches, or you simply become mediocre at best.

As for being heavily schemed, that is fairly accurate. The problem is that after the first few games, many teams did not scheme him as heavily as early in the year, and he simply struggled against SEC OT's, even in one-on-one matchups. Three sacks is a pretty sad number for a guy with that level of talent.

I agree Carr will be highly drafted and he has all of the tools that teams look for. However, you could make a case that Bortles has even better tools. He also has a tremendous arm, and he's bigger, stronger, and more mobile than Carr.

A scheme heavy on short throws would hurt YPA. Winston completes a ton of deep throws. In 20+ years of watching college football, I've never seen someone throw the deep ball better than Winston as consistently as he does. The Noles weren't nearly as reliant on the bubble screens this year as they have been under Fisher in the past. Part of that reliance was due to E.J. Manuel struggling with touch and accuracy down the field.

My main point was that I don't see why a team would go nuts trying to get Carr when Bortles and Manziel will be right there behind him.
[ Edited by JamesGatz83 on Jan 1, 2014 at 8:18 AM ]
Updated, up to Top 260, post Underclassmen Deadline.
AB,
Which receiver(s) would you say would likely start for the Niners next year?
Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:
AB,
Which receiver(s) would you say would likely start for the Niners next year?

My guy is Watkins, if we could get high enough to get him, but doubtful. But I see Boldin and Crabs as 1-2 next year, so whoever is drafted would compete for 3rd with Patton. I like Adams a lot. I would hope we would use more 3 WR sets, maybe 4 WR sets. activate 5 on gamedays. Crabs, Boldin, Patton, High Pick, Osgood(For ST).
Originally posted by AB81Rules:
Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:
AB,
Which receiver(s) would you say would likely start for the Niners next year?

My guy is Watkins, if we could get high enough to get him, but doubtful. But I see Boldin and Crabs as 1-2 next year, so whoever is drafted would compete for 3rd with Patton. I like Adams a lot. I would hope we would use more 3 WR sets, maybe 4 WR sets. activate 5 on gamedays. Crabs, Boldin, Patton, High Pick, Osgood(For ST).
Thanks. The FO has a bit of a conundrum. A power running game is aided by better blocking (usually average speed) WRs; but Kap has the long gun that cries out for a speedy WR. Although Gore won't be a Niner forever, the power running game may stay the team's first focus. Having said that, I'd like to see the FO not settle for a part-time speed WR. If Watkins is the sure starter, has speed, is decent at or willing to block, I say go get him.
When lookin at rankin N what round a player maybe drafted in whatz tha best site to look at ???? I just seen on cbs sportz they are rankin Tre Boston 6-7 round ...How is that frm what ive seen around here N on ur(AB81) rankin/bigg board u have him at #62...
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
The Rams pretty much control this draft and their haul could be scary. After Bridgewater is taken at 1, the bidding war for Carr begins and with the teams from 3-5 all needing help, the Rams could end up with the player they want at that trade back slot, , add a high second rounder or future first rounder, and still have their 13th overall. The team could land the best OL, double up on OL in first (which they probably should do) and also get RB or S help in the early second. Scary.

Side note: I still think Clowney is in for a rude awakening on draft day. I stated a couple months ago that I wouldn't be surprised to see him closer to 10th overall that first. Team needs and a major attitude adjustment may cause a slide. You know that in those interviewee at the combine, Barr is going to blow people away, and I am not sure Clowney will be able to address why he struggled to be productive this year.

How did you feel about Alshon, Calias Cambell, Dunlap, and Quinton Groves and Allan Branch? Same type of drop (well, not quite that magnitude, but dropped pretty heavily). Of course some worked out great, others didn't.
Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:
Originally posted by AB81Rules:
Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:
AB,
Which receiver(s) would you say would likely start for the Niners next year?

My guy is Watkins, if we could get high enough to get him, but doubtful. But I see Boldin and Crabs as 1-2 next year, so whoever is drafted would compete for 3rd with Patton. I like Adams a lot. I would hope we would use more 3 WR sets, maybe 4 WR sets. activate 5 on gamedays. Crabs, Boldin, Patton, High Pick, Osgood(For ST).
Thanks. The FO has a bit of a conundrum. A power running game is aided by better blocking (usually average speed) WRs; but Kap has the long gun that cries out for a speedy WR. Although Gore won't be a Niner forever, the power running game may stay the team's first focus. Having said that, I'd like to see the FO not settle for a part-time speed WR. If Watkins is the sure starter, has speed, is decent at or willing to block, I say go get him.

Agreed. The FO has a conundrum for sure. We need to get a legit WR for the future. I hope Boldin gets a 2 or 3 yr deal.
Originally posted by tatdwolf49:
When lookin at rankin N what round a player maybe drafted in whatz tha best site to look at ???? I just seen on cbs sportz they are rankin Tre Boston 6-7 round ...How is that frm what ive seen around here N on ur(AB81) rankin/bigg board u have him at #62...

Yeah I noticed that, also on DraftCountdown.com, Scott Wright has him in the 20's in his Safety rankings.

I just like Boston, versatile, CB and FS IMO. I try not to go with what guys like CBS, Kiper, McShay, Mayock, Scott Wright, etc.. say, and go off my own belief on the player(s).
And of course Tad, I could be wrong come May. I had Jordan Poyer as a 1st rd pick, and he went in the 7th I believe, so I wouldn't be shocked if some of my guys I have pegged in certain areas fall or go higher.
10 More prospects added, up to the Top 270.
Update: Top 270 Updated, Post Senior Bowl Game
Abbrederis at 97...stopped reading after this one Benjamin in the top30? Why???

Serious: could you point out the biggest risers and fallers, in comparison to your last big board or the one a month back?
[ Edited by communist on Jan 27, 2014 at 11:23 AM ]
Originally posted by communist:
Abbrederis at 97...stopped reading after this one Benjamin in the top30? Why???

Serious: could you point out the biggest risers and fallers, in comparison to your last big board or the one a month back?

I didn't want to make too many changes to the underclassmen part. I like Benjamin. Probably more than others.

Riser and Fallers wise.

Ford, Garoppolo, Desir, Jean-Baptiste, Alden Darby, Kenny Ladler, Robert Herron all rised.

I dropped Tre Boston, Seantrel Henderson, Tajh Boyd, Jeff Janis, Hoffman, all fell.

There are others, I will make a list in a few to compare from my last major big board. I had a pre-senior bowl game/post senior bowl practices but not a big change.