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GEEK's Final Mock Plan...

  • GEEK
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 17,144
of 2013

2014 Projected Cap: $127.5M

49ers Projected 2014 Cap Room: $11M

Roster Cuts: $6.5M in savings
- J. Baldwin, WR; C. Rogers, CB

Restructure via Extension: $10M in savings
- R. McDonald, DT/DE; V. Davis, TE; F. Gore, RB; P. Willis, ILB

Resigning: $10.5M in spending
- A. Boldin, WR; E. Wright, CB; P. Dawson, K; M. Wilhoite, ILB

Free Agency: $6M in spending

Corey Graham - CB - Ravens
*He's playing very good football right now with strong performances against the Jets, Steelers, and Vikings. He's a much cheaper option than Rogers and Brown, and would be the perfect #2/#3 flex.

Chad Henne - QB - Jaguars
*He's not a starting QB, but he's got enough talent to be a capable backup. Think Shaun Hill.

Remaining Cap Room: $11M (used for player extensions and rookie draft picks)


NFL Draft:

Trade: 49ers trade 1st, 2nd, and 2015 1st for Buffalo Bills's 1st round pick.

R1: Sammy Watkins - WR - Clemson (via trade)
*Vertical threat that instantly adds another dimension to our offense. Imagine Crabtree, Boldin, Watkins, and Davis on the field at the same time.

Trade: 49ers trade 2nd (via Chiefs) and 4th round picks for Titans's 2nd round pick. Titans move down a few slots to acquire another draft pick.

R2: Ahmad Dixon - S - Baylor (via trade)
*Emerging safety that's one of the best SS prospects in the draft. Day 1 starter.

R3: Tyler Larsen - C - Utah State (via Titans)
*Instantly competes for the starting center position vs. Kilgore. Skill set is a match for our scheme.

R3: Josh Mauro - DT/DE - Stanford
*Iron sharpens iron. Secures our depth at defensive line.

R3: Aaron Colvin - CB - Oklahoma (comp)
*A nice, strong, physical cornerback to add to the mix. Security blanket for Culliver.

R5: Allen Hurns - WR - Miami
*I had him in my previous mock. 6-2 and very athletic. Might not get much playing time in his first year, but he learns the ropes behind Crabs and Boldin.

R6: Spencer Long - OG - Nebraska
*Get better long, because you'll compete for a starting job for us in 2015.

R7: D.J. Coles - TE/WR - Virginia (Panthers)
*Not the fastest guy out there, but an upgrade to Celek.

R7: Connor Shaw - QB - South Carolina
*Scappy quarterback that minimizes his mistakes and extends plays. For a #3, that's all you ask for.

R7: Shamar Stephen - DT/DE - Connecticut (via Colts)
*Similar mold to Quinton Dial, Stephen will most likely be a PS player.

R7: Travis Carrie - CB/S - Ohio (via Saints)
*With the loss of Michael Thomas, Carrie steps in as a PS depth player.

Depth Chart -

QB: Kaepernick/Henne*
RB: Gore/Hunter/James/Lattimore
FB: Miller
TE: Davis/McDonald/Coles*

WR: Crabtree/Patton
WR: Boldin/Hurns*
WR: Watkins*

LT: Staley/Marquardt
LG: Iupati/Snyder
C: Larsen*/Kilgore
RG: Boone/Looney
RT: Davis

LE: Smith//Carradine
NT: Dorsey/Williams
RE: McDonald/Jerod-Eddie/Mauro*

OLB: Smith/Skuta
ILB: Willis/Wilhoite
ILB: Bowman/Moody
OLB: Brooks/Lemonier

CB: Brock/Culliver/Morris
CB: Graham*/Wright/Colvin*
FS: Reid/Spillman
SS: Dixon*/Dahl/Ventrone

ST: Dawson, Lee, McDermott

PS: Shaw, Stephen, Carrie, Bykowski, Jacobs, Swanson, Dial, Wylie
[ Edited by GEEK on Dec 13, 2013 at 6:59 AM ]
I'd be good with this, nice! My only question would be giving up a future first. We gave up our first and a third to move from 31 to 18 for Reid. With a plethora of picks this year I'd try like our first, second, third and maybe some late picks before I give up a first. Depending on how many QBs declare, I can easily see five going in the top 10-15, Watkins could possibly drop to or past 10
Originally posted by 49ers808:
I'd be good with this, nice! My only question would be giving up a future first. We gave up our first and a third to move from 31 to 18 for Reid. With a plethora of picks this year I'd try like our first, second, third and maybe some late picks before I give up a first. Depending on how many QBs declare, I can easily see five going in the top 10-15, Watkins could possibly drop to or past 10

He could, but I don't see it happening. Watkins is the best WR prospect in this class IMO by far. It would take a lot to get up high enough to get Watkins. We would likely have to give up a 1st in 2015, or both our 2nds, and a 3rd. He is that good of a prospect.
Originally posted by AB81Rules:
He could, but I don't see it happening. Watkins is the best WR prospect in this class IMO by far. It would take a lot to get up high enough to get Watkins. We would likely have to give up a 1st in 2015, or both our 2nds, and a 3rd. He is that good of a prospect.

Honestly I don't see it happening too, I just hate giving up first round picks when more than likely our latter picks won't make the team. Just out of curiosity what pick do you think he'll go at? I stand by my prediction of 10-15 due to QB needy teams, Clowney, Barr, and Tackles that will go before him
Originally posted by 49ers808:
Originally posted by AB81Rules:
He could, but I don't see it happening. Watkins is the best WR prospect in this class IMO by far. It would take a lot to get up high enough to get Watkins. We would likely have to give up a 1st in 2015, or both our 2nds, and a 3rd. He is that good of a prospect.

Honestly I don't see it happening too, I just hate giving up first round picks when more than likely our latter picks won't make the team. Just out of curiosity what pick do you think he'll go at? I stand by my prediction of 10-15 due to QB needy teams, Clowney, Barr, and Tackles that will go before him

Depends on trades obviously.

But, I have Watkins as my 5th best player on my big board.

1- Teddy
2- Clowney
3- Barr
4- Jake Matthews
5- Watkins
6- Taylor Lewan
7- Tuitt
8- Nix
9- Mack
10- Manziel
11- Evans
12- Kouandjio
13- Carr
14- Hundley
Geek,
I like it. If Watkins is the one to get, then the FO should get him. A true #1 WR receiver is the Niners' #1 need. I'd regret giving up next year's #1 but if that's what it takes, do it. However, I'd prefer the Niners trade a starter as part of that package.

I like the center pick. Not sure the Niners need a second round safety. A safety is needed only to complete with Dahl. Now that Whitner doesn't have to backup Goldson's lack of discipline, Donte has been good to great. Also, the FO should package some of your mid-round selections either for Watkins or other higher picks.
Thanks for an excellent mock.

My only concern which casts big-time doubt about the 1st round selection is our reluctance to throw other receivers other than VD, Boldin, Crabs.

McDonald is open a lot and rarely sees a pass his way.

Do you think Trent/JH would spend so much to use it sparingly?
Final plan? On Dec 13th?

Then again. A good plan. Watkins, Dixon, Larsen and Mauro would be a great draft class for what the Niners need.
[ Edited by m_brockalexander on Dec 13, 2013 at 10:26 AM ]
  • GEEK
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  • Posts: 17,144
Let me address a few posts in one response:

- I'm never a fan of trading away future draft picks, but I think Watkins is worthy of the compensation. When Baalke has traded up for a specific target in the 1st round (Reid, A. Davis, etc), he's succeeded. The 49ers are getting to the point where they can afford to lose one draft pick in the future to address a serious need.

Also remember that players like Tank Carradine and Marcus Lattimore are slotted to start seeing football action in the 2014 training camp, just like the 2014 draft picks. So we have an influx of talent this offseason in multiple of ways.

- In my mock, I assume Donte Whitner gets a nice contract with another team that has a huge void at safety. But Ed Donatell has been able to coach rookies up to a near pro bowl level. I'm okay with a rookie vs. Dahl to compete for the starting SS job.

- I think Baalke and Harbaugh know that the play calling needs to evolve to a point where we are using other weapons as primary targets. When your FB is the 3rd leading receiver, that's a problem. As long as Kaepernick can build a trust during the training camp, I'm not worried about it. Our receivers have been so banged up that Kaepernick is basically forced to target Boldin and Davis to move the ball down field. Once Crabtree and Patton are healthy, you'll see the ball spread around more.

And it's my final mock for 2013. It's in the post, just a bit hidden :-)
I've brought up the possibility of trading up for Watkins as well but there's a lot a lot of downside to it. You look at Atlanta, they traded a whole bunch for Julio Jones and he's done great for them but their defense is now full of holes. I'm more in favor of sticking with a guy like Beckham or Richardson and re-signing Crabtree. If the 49ers are less than 50/50 certain about re-signing Crabtree, than by all means do it. But if Boldin is re-signed and Crabtree is re-signed, with Patton on board already and the potential of adding another WR with an early pick, I think there's drastically less need to trade up, especially when this team will be replacing Tarell Brown already.
I'd be delighted with this draft, except for Mauro...a spot that I would use for a second WR. Love getting Dixon and Colvin--though I've seen the later listed higher in many mocks. Also see C as a primary need this year...finally! Watkins is listed at 5th in the first round just as AB places him, so don't know if that impacts your plan.
I think Hitner stays, Kilgore starts over Larsen, Cully starts over Graham, and Anthony Dixon stays - again. I'm not against us using multiple picks to move up to nab a WR, we need one. Just not sure HarBaalk will. Plus I'm not sure that it'll be Watkins. Can he stand up to the physicality of the NFC West DB's? Not against the pick, but I'm not sure he's a physical guy, at least I didn't see it. Other than that a good Mock Plan
  • GEEK
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Fair points.

Phoenix - I understand your concerns, but I wouldn't compare our situation to Atlanta when they picked up Julio Jones. We've done a great job building depth and talent from the draft, and we have capable people that have filled in nicely for injured players - Brock, TJE, Snyder, Wilhoite, and Dorsey come to mind. And all of them will be on the 49ers roster next season. I see this as a situation where we can aggressively trade up to get a difference maker without mortgaging our future in a high risk way.

We have our franchise QB, franchise WRs, franchise and successor RBs, and we have crazy depth everywhere...except wide receiver. And again, we have redshirt players that will contribute in 2014...in essence, other early round draft picks.

DTG - Understand the opinion on doubling down at WR, but Patton has undeniable talent. I think he'll be a contributor in year 2, and I also think you'll be surprised by Hurns. He's going to be an NFL contributor in my opinion. I think another early WR draft pick will be wasted away on the bench.

9ersLife - All realistic predictions...except Anthony Dixon. He's complained about playing time, and you'd get higher ROI with drafting a rookie vs. resigning Dixon. He's a character for sure, and I like him as a player, but he deserves to earn a chance for playing time...and with Lattimore on the way up, that's not going to happen in SF.
Given that the salary cap issue exists every year, you cannot afford such a jump, independent of the talent status.
Call me opmistic, but right now I assume we're picking at #32, until proven otherwise. I think moving from 32 to 5 to grab Watkins would require more future picks than Baalke would be willing to mortgage. I do think we could move from 32 to say 18-20 without mortgaging the future, which is exactly what Baalke has done in the past. I believe we have a chance of landing Lee in the 18-20 range of the draft. I'm not saying Lee is better than Watkins. I'm saying Lee could be within reach, where Watkins maybe out of reach, based on Baalke's past trade ups.

Do we have any WRs on the team with the quickness, speed, & agility of Watkins or Lee??? I think not.

If the WRs go 1) Watkins approx #5-7, 2) Evans approx #9-12, 3) Lee approx 18-23, and the 4) ??? approx 29-35, that there seems to be a big droop off in the (quickness, agility, &speed receivers) after the top 3 WRs.

I'd be stocked if we traded up to 18-23 and nab Lee, and also draft best BIG West Coast possion WR in either round 2 or 3. Then we could have 2 vets, Crabtree & Boldin (if we resign him), and 3 young guns to develop; Lee, Patton, ??? A Big West Coast possion WR.

In short, I'd be willing to parlay our 1st, a 2nd, & two 3rds, to land Lee and one of the top BIg's which there seems to be several this year.