AB81's 49ers 2014 Mock Draft/Offseason V1.0

I have us at $3.123M under the 2013 cap right now, and $8.841M under the 2014 cap, so combined, we would have $11.946M to work with.

Now roster moves (Note, I will link a page to which has salary cap numbers for all deals, and future years, on NCH)

Releases:

Carlos Rogers - $5.1M saved

Restructure/Extend:

Ray McDonald - $1.499M saved, $19.5M in new money on a new deal through 2018.
Vernon Davis - $2.2M saved, $28.25M in new money on a new deal through 2019
Frank Gore- $3,333,333 saved, new $12M deal for Gore over 3 seasons, through 2016.
Patrick Willis - $2.785M saved, $41.25M in new money in a new deal through 2019.

NOTES: Willis and Davis are still among the best at their positions. And McDonald is still a good DE, so under $20M is a great deal.

Re-signings:

Anquan Boldin - 3yr deal worth $15M($4.5M bonus, $3.5M 2014 cap #)
Mario Manningham - 2yr deal worth $7M($2M bonus, yearly $250K roster, and $100K workout bonuses, $3.35M 2014 cap #)
Tramaine Brock - 2yr deal worth $6M($2M bonus, $2.5M year 1 cap #)
Eric Wright - 1yr $2M deal
Phil Dawson - 1yr $2.5M deal
Michael Wilhoite - 1yr $570K EFA Tender
McLeod Bethel-Thompson - 1yr $570K EFA Tender (Note he will be tendered if he stays on roster past the 2013 season, doesn't mean he makes the team)
Kassim Osgood - 1yr $1,005M deal (Vet credit, only counts $570K, plus a $50K bonus)

Futures Contracts:

Michael Thomas
Jewel Hampton
D'Aundre Reed
Carter Bykowski
Al Netter
Dax Swanson
Chuck Jacobs
Michael Purcell

Players we Let Walk:

Tarell Brown (Will cost too much)
Anthony Dixon (No room with Lattimore coming back)
Demarcus Dobbs (Average at best, not worth $1.3M RFA tender, maybe a 1yr deal worth $645K)
Donte Whitner (I like him, but we probably go younger)
Jonathan Goodwin (We hope Kilgore or Looney are ready to take over, if not, a simple 1yr vet minimum deal will work)
Colt McCoy (Maybe a 1yr deal worth $750K, but doubtful)

After all these are done, I have us at $12,591,047 under the cap for 2014.

The only extensions I would consider would be be,

Bruce Miller
Kendall Hunter
Chris Culliver
Aldon Smith

I wouldn't touch Kaepernick yet, he needs to prove he is a great NFL QB to get a $100M deal or anything close to $14M a yr.

If we extend Aldon, we can lower his $2,336,454 base salary down to the 4th yr minimum of $645K, and save some room.

Mike Iupati and Michael Crabtree extensions could work, depends, I don't see both, maybe one this year, then in 2015, we franchise the other, if Kap hasn't been extended or become legit, and we need to franchise him.

Heading into draft night, here is our roster

63 players in total.

QB- Kaepernick, Bethel-Thompson
RB- Gore, Hunter, James, Lattimore, Hampton
FB- Miller, Debniak
WR- Crabtree, Boldin, Manningham, Patton, Baldwin, Osgood, Jacobs, Carswell
TE- Davis, McDonald, Celek, Carrier
C- Kilgore
OG- Iupati, Boone, Snyder, Looney, Netter
OT- Staley, Davis, Marquardt, Bykowski
DE- Smith, McDonald, Carradine, Okoye
NT- Dorsey, Williams, Dial, Jerod-Eddie, Purcell
OLB- Smith, Brooks, Lemonier, Skuta, Reed
ILB- Bowman, Willis, Wilhoite, Moody, Fleming
CB- Culliver, Brock, Wright, Morris, Swanson
FS- Reid, Dahl
SS- Spillman, Thomas, Ventrone
ST- Dawson, Lee, McDermott

Salaries are found here, http://ninercaphell.com/mock-offseason/

2014 NFL Draft:

Needs IMO- WR, SS, CB, C, OT, OG, QB

I'll say we will draft in 22-26 range, being realistic.

Going off my own Top 215 Big Board (found here, http://pigskinprospects.com/2013/11/16/jasons-top-215-big-board-as-of-november-16th-2013/)

Round 1 - FS Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix, Alabama

Round 2 - QB Aaron Murray, Georgia

(Trade our 2nd and 5th for rights to get Murray)

Round 2 - CB Jason Verrett, TCU

(Trade KC's 2nd, 6th and highest 7th for Verrett)

Round 3 - OG Gabe Jackson, Mississippi State

Round 3 - WR Brandon Coleman, Rutgers

Round 3(Comp) - CB Rashaad Reynolds, Oregon State

Round 4 - C Travis Swanson, Arkansas

Round 7 - OT Austin Wentworth, Fresno State

Round 7 - DE Ryne Giddins, South Florida

Round 7 - SS Sean Parker, Washington

If we get Clinton-Dix, I really wouldn't care who else we get. This guy is going to be something else.

He would put us over the top. A safety who can cover like a cornerback, yes please!

Wow AB u put alot work into this stuff very kool though... Reading N making mock drafts is why i finely joined .... im glad someone let brown go lol good player but i think he'll want to much ... at boldin N gore(N with lattimore) age u really think 3 yr deals are best ???? Again im not to sold on taken another S in tha 1st round in back to back yrz.. I like tha murray pick juz worried about taken a QB so high thinkin mental it may hurt kaep stir up replacement rumorz ...nice job at helpin tha O-line out ...do u think colemen will be there in tha 3rd round ??? U know i luvz me some bigg WRz lol Thought we cut fleming are u thinkin we'll sign him bac ???

Always love reading your work because of the depth of knowledge and detail, I don't get to watch college games so can only rely on these kinds of posts for spome insight.

One question for you AB, I think we could actually use a good, big bodied NT to clog up 2 lanes on the run and get some forward pressure, what scope do you see to work someone like that in? I think Dorsey has been very good this season but not sure he or Ian Williams are true NT's.

I really like the idea of Dix and Reid as our secondary, if we could add one lock down corner with him then I think our defense would be monstrously good.

Not crazy about trading up in the second round for a QB. But other than that solid draft.

Nice piece of work as usual AB. No criticisms, just a thought. I like taking the Guard early, just wonder whether we would be better off with another receiver and pick up a development prospect guard later.

And the Nose Tackle which has already been mentioned!

I wouldn't be surprised, though, to see Baalke trading back a pick or two into next year. He does seem to be a long term planner. Maybe a 3rd for a '14 2nd and a 7th for a '14 6th. But I imagine it will depend on what value is still available on the board.

Originally posted by Hopper:
Not crazy about trading up in the second round for a QB. But other than that solid draft.

I think it's a good move Hopper , we would get a talented QB with a huge upside to groom for the future, that way we wont be left hanging if Kaep gets hurt, gotta have those talented QB's ready to go....Personally I liked it when we had Joe/Steve/ Matt back in the day ....3 QB's that could get it done if needed ...Ahh the days of Camelot

The toughest thing for me to judge when thinking of the draft is our WR corps. On paper we have enough in: Crabtree, Boldin, Manningham, Baldwin and Patton. However, when we watch games, our major need is WR (i know 2 of those listed are injured currently).

I think if Whitner leaves, safety becomes a priority along with NT. Depending on how Eric Wright fits in rest of season, CB is always a position you can get better at too.

Originally posted by English:
Nice piece of work as usual AB. No criticisms, just a thought. I like taking the Guard early, just wonder whether we would be better off with another receiver and pick up a development prospect guard later.

The guy would have been picked in the 3rd. That IS almost an experiment.

Well thought out and man - that's a lot of work. Thanks!

Dix & Verret would really improve the secondary w/Brock, Culliver and Wright.

At first, I was a bit taken aback by the Murray QB pick. BUT, after thinking a bit - great insurance in an injury sport and a potential quality starter. Fine choice.

Gabe Johnson G is a beast - potential starter.

Coleman WR is very good BUT - based on what we have - don't you feel we need another WR on this list?

Given that we will extend MM and Boldin, the question is whether Coleman fits the profile we are looking for (=fast guy). coleman seems to be a Redzone-threat but not very fast.

What about Abbrederis or Odell Beckham?

trading up to grab a QB in virtually the same spot and way they got Kaepernick would be a hugely negative move. Strictly from a PR standpoint it sends a blatant message that you have little to no faith in him and that you are bringing in someone who had enough talent to get drafted at the same level as him. Kaepernick might as well ask for a trade at that point, not saying he is that type of person but it wouldn't be surprised if it happened.

Football standpoint it is almost identical though -- after 1.5 years of drafting a QB in the second by trading up to get him and repeating the same exact move. We'd be the new Miami Dolphins, drafting a QB in the 2nd for years in a row round thinking one would stick and then they finally caved and picked a QB in the top 10 who still may not be that great.

Not trying to bash it cause I like Murray a lot and would be thrilled to have see him as a 9er if we didn't already have our supposed franchise QB on the roster.

----

Secondly, I've routinely been among the crowd of us that believes we need a bigger physically WR like Coleman but not simply to compete against our divisions DBs but because it is painfully obvious that at our heart, our offense is based of short routes that rely on route running, creating separation and being physical.

So I like that pick. But at the same time it is painfully obvious and been beaten to death here on the WZ and now the media, that we need a dynamic player similar to Delanie Walker. Yes in the current argument we could argue that we don't have Crabtree but last season we had Crabtree, Manningham, Davis, and Walker. Even if you bring back Crabs and Rio the addition of Boldin does not replace Walker's invaluable contributions to this team.

Since we won't be finding a #2 TE like Walker because of our acquisition of Vance McDonald, a much more traditional TE - We'll need to find that player as WR. So rather than just throw this out I'll try and look up players I think fit this mold that could possess both quality blocking and route running skills and post them here.

However I do think that we need a clear cut big play threat at WR, not another big possession type so not to highjack the thread but I think that evidenced by Ginn's ability to be that clear cut #3-big play threat type for another team after lobbying for a larger role for 3 years I don't think it is entirely on him that he didn't succeed here. I think it is our scheme, because even if Jenkins was a bust and a bad pick at 30 let alone 60 or later like many thought he would go. We set him up for failure by not simply utilizing his speed and having him run go's, slant-n-go's, deep crossing routes because if he was too weak to block and it telegraphed a pass play we would still be able to win a mismatch or find an open man most of the plays.

/end slightly coherent rant.

Sfout is right. Drafting a QB that early would be a terrible move and stir up unnecessary replacement rumors, drama in which Kap might very well demand a trade - you're basically telling him that he's a) not good enough, b) have no faith in him, or c) he doesn't fit in the plans for the future.

And even if the 49ers felt that way (which I highly doubt they do), they might as well just trade Kap while he still has some value, there's many QB needy teams that would be desperate to get their hands on him and use him to his strengths.

If Murray is available in the third round, I'd give it a shot but if you're expecting them to select a QB higher than the 3rd or 4th round, you will be disappointed. Just not going to happen. I've been disappointed in Kap this year and want him to improve as well but it's way too early to just give up on him this quickly. Lets give him more time to develop more of his skills, give him some more weapons - the 2nd rounder should be used on a playmaker like Odell Beckham Jr or Brandin Cooks, guys who can stretch the field - hope Roman can improve (play calling, game planning, utilizing the talent) and if still nothing changes, then I'm on board with taking a potential starting QB as early as the 2nd but it's a bit too premature to do so now.

Patriots drafted Ryan Mallet in the 3rd. I didn't hear any complaining out of Brady....

Originally posted by NeonNiner:
Sfout is right. Drafting a QB that early would be a terrible move and stir up unnecessary replacement rumors, drama in which Kap might very well demand a trade - you're basically telling him that he's a) not good enough, b) have no faith in him, or c) he doesn't fit in the plans for the future.

And even if the 49ers felt that way (which I highly doubt they do), they might as well just trade Kap while he still has some value, there's many QB needy teams that would be desperate to get their hands on him and use him to his strengths.

If Murray is available in the third round, I'd give it a shot but if you're expecting them to select a QB higher than the 3rd or 4th round, you will be disappointed. Just not going to happen. I've been disappointed in Kap this year and want him to improve as well but it's way too early to just give up on him this quickly. Lets give him more time to develop more of his skills, give him some more weapons - the 2nd rounder should be used on a playmaker like Odell Beckham Jr or Brandin Cooks, guys who can stretch the field - hope Roman can improve (play calling, game planning, utilizing the talent) and if still nothing changes, then I'm on board with taking a potential starting QB as early as the 2nd but it's a bit too premature to do so now.

Thanks for the agreement. We're handcuffed to Kaepernick for his entire contract unless he completely regresses to an 2005 or 2006 Alex Smith level or suffers a serious injury. The coaching staff is obviously supporting him as evidenced by "I don't accept the premise of your question" response from Harbaugh when asked about Kaepernick's poor play.

To address your second point I would agree that we should use multiple picks on WRs. We're going into next season with Crabtree, Baldwin, and Patton as our only WRs under contract. Sure we could re-sign Mario for cheap due to recovery from injury and maybe Boldin if he really likes it here but Baldwin is a player who may end up being cut or never fully developing and Patton is a complete 4th round unknown. We need to make sure we have as many good WRs as possible.