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#1 QB prospects in this years draft.

Originally posted by SunDevilNiner79:
limited arm strength? I'm curious who you think has more arm strength than Murray. You posted about us taking Jordan Lynch and Lynch doesn't have half the arm strength Murray does.

Murray is playing with one of the weakest WR groups in the nation.

And he doesn't go through his progressions!?!? He is probably the best in college football when it comes to a pro-oriented offense and going through progressions.

I really don't get the knocks on Murray at all. He makes NFL throws.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1I0fT6DGGCk
-Look at 2:29. That is one hell of a throw and he put it exactly where he wanted to even though it was an incompletion. I hardly see any college QB making a throw like that. That is a 40 yard out pattern off a play action from the opposite hash mark

So many college QB stats are so overblown. You have QBs like Marriota throwing deep strikes but its on blown coverage generated from spread option or Brett Hundley jacking up his stats with 5 yard dump off passes. I'd LOVE to see an adjusted stats for throwing against coverage and taking off YAC. Murray would KILL it in that stat. Or you have Manziel who is pretty much the master of the broken/backyard football.

Compare that to Mettenberg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=in3IJZ04fEE
-On the first play. Almost identical to Murray's play above. Mettenberg throws the ball to where it can be contested and puts a LOT of air underneath it, but its Odell Beckham that makes the play. If Murray had Beckham....peoples thoughts on Murray would be much improved.

Now IMO, on those 2 throws, its Murray who demonstrates the stronger arm and better deep ball accuracy

Only QB in college doing more NFL throws IMO is Teddy Bridgewater.


Look, I'm just giving my own opinion on the guy and what others have said about him, his arm strength certainly is questionable, its the most common knock on him along with his size. He's certainly done well as a long term starter but as I said before, the Matt Barkley/Ponder comparisons that have been made are valid, if you go back through this site, look at the threads on Ponder, people were making the same comments about him, citing the same strengths and trying to minimalize some of the very same weaknesses at that time too.


I think in the right system, Murray could be a good pro quarterback, to me he seems to be more of the upper end game manager variety than anything else.
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Look, I'm just giving my own opinion on the guy and what others have said about him, his arm strength certainly is questionable, its the most common knock on him along with his size. He's certainly done well as a long term starter but as I said before, the Matt Barkley/Ponder comparisons that have been made are valid, if you go back through this site, look at the threads on Ponder, people were making the same comments about him, citing the same strengths and trying to minimalize some of the very same weaknesses at that time too.


I think in the right system, Murray could be a good pro quarterback, to me he seems to be more of the upper end game manager variety than anything else.

Regarding Ponder, I never even thought he was a 2nd round QB.

On Barkley, I had him as 2nd round pick, the 3rd QB taken. I had Glennon as the 4th, and those 2 flip flopped in the draft.

I had E.J. Manuel as my #2 QB and I said Manuel would be a first round pick. People were talking s**t about Manuel all the way through. So if you want to talk about history, I think my last year QB thoughts was pretty on fire. Of course I should have flip flopped Dysert and Nassib and then my QB rankings would have been crazy accurate...damnit!

I also said Glennon has the strongest arm in the draft and no surprise he is starting.

Tyler Wilson I'd say was a MAJOR project and sure enough he got demoted to practice squad (now since moved up) and can't even start on the Raiders.

I'm not saying I'm right on everything, a whole lot I'm wrong on.

Oh and another big hit for me last year was I said Matt Scott, Arizona wouldn't be drafted.

So based on last year's draft history with my QB evaluations, I'm pretty confident in my record.
[ Edited by SunDevilNiner79 on Nov 18, 2013 at 11:32 AM ]
  • sfout
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Originally posted by SunDevilNiner79:
Regarding Ponder, I never even thought he was a 2nd round QB.

On Barkley, I had him as 2nd round pick, the 3rd QB taken. I had Glennon as the 4th, and those 2 flip flopped in the draft.

I had E.J. Manuel as my #2 QB and I said Manuel would be a first round pick. People were talking s**t about Manuel all the way through. So if you want to talk about history, I think my last year QB thoughts was pretty on fire. Of course I should have flip flopped Dysert and Nassib and then my QB rankings would have been crazy accurate...damnit!

I also said Glennon has the strongest arm in the draft and no surprise he is starting.

Tyler Wilson I'd say was a MAJOR project and sure enough he got demoted to practice squad (now since moved up) and can't even start on the Raiders.

I'm not saying I'm right on everything, a whole lot I'm wrong on.

Oh and another big hit for me last year was I said Matt Scott, Arizona wouldn't be drafted.

So based on last year's draft history with my QB evaluations, I'm pretty confident in my record.

Yea so far SDN you are a trusted source for QB evals.

Also it is not really pertinent to this years QB class but since you are a fellow PAC-12 fan -- did you see that the Utes QB Wilson's career is likely over after a "pre-existing neurological issue" was found during an angiogram after he sustained his first concussion last week.

He's incredibly erratic but I saw a few people on the WZ chime in about him over the summer and early part of the season. He has the physical traits and mobility and a pretty good arm but was already injury prone and hadn't shown maturity.

Still thought he had a some sort of a future in the NFL though. Tough break and now I'm left with another disastrous season of Utes football lol.
Idk about QB but Being a Fresno State fan im waiting for Devante Adams to Declare for the NFL Draft..Hes a BEAST at Reciever
Originally posted by sfout:
Yea so far SDN you are a trusted source for QB evals.

Also it is not really pertinent to this years QB class but since you are a fellow PAC-12 fan -- did you see that the Utes QB Wilson's career is likely over after a "pre-existing neurological issue" was found during an angiogram after he sustained his first concussion last week.

He's incredibly erratic but I saw a few people on the WZ chime in about him over the summer and early part of the season. He has the physical traits and mobility and a pretty good arm but was already injury prone and hadn't shown maturity.

Still thought he had a some sort of a future in the NFL though. Tough break and now I'm left with another disastrous season of Utes football lol.

Man I feel bad for Wilson. I think I even said it in the Other Sports forum that Wilson was crazy tough, he took a MAJOR beating from ASU. Watching that game I felt as a viewer like "Wilson, please don't get up. You're getting physically killed out there." It was too the point I felt bad for Wilson when he was getting drilled.

Honestly I think its a major problem with how Utah used him, you can't use your QB and put him in a position to get hit so many times.

So Utah's offensive scheme + concussion + pre-existing condition = IMO he should be done.

I didn't think he had an NFL future based on what he showed so far. He was only a sophomore though. Tall lanky kid with athleticism, he had a good confidence swagger to him and you could tell players respected him a lot, had room to add weight and get stronger. He did have good arm strength for a young guy, but he never showed the accuracy, football IQ, and consistency IMO. Some of of those deep passes to Anderson though? Those were real pretty.

Wilson should have been red-shirted and was thrown into the fire too soon. It stunted his growth IMO. If he was red-shirted and this was his freshman year, I'd be a lot more optimistic at his shot to be in the NFL.

Edit: Correction I said it in the Fantasy Sports forum to Jiks regarding Wilson getting physically killed out there
[ Edited by SunDevilNiner79 on Nov 18, 2013 at 12:57 PM ]
I agree completely with SunDevil. IMO Murray has pretty good arm strength and good accuracy. I also feel like he goes through his progressions better than most, and consider that he doesn't have great receivers other than his tight ends!!

I don't see the comparisons to Christian Ponder. With Ponder at Florida St. I saw a guy with questionable arm strength and accuracy and was SHOCKED that he was taken as early as he did. I honestly saw him as a 3rd round prospect.

With Murray, if I have to make a comparison, I'd compare him to Andy Dalton with less speed.
Originally posted by LaMichaelJeff:
I agree completely with SunDevil. IMO Murray has pretty good arm strength and good accuracy. I also feel like he goes through his progressions better than most, and consider that he doesn't have great receivers other than his tight ends!!

I don't see the comparisons to Christian Ponder. With Ponder at Florida St. I saw a guy with questionable arm strength and accuracy and was SHOCKED that he was taken as early as he did. I honestly saw him as a 3rd round prospect.

With Murray, if I have to make a comparison, I'd compare him to Andy Dalton with less speed.

I agree with your comparison of Dalton - Murray. I was thinking the same thing but hesitated to post it
Originally posted by LaMichaelJeff:
I agree completely with SunDevil. IMO Murray has pretty good arm strength and good accuracy. I also feel like he goes through his progressions better than most, and consider that he doesn't have great receivers other than his tight ends!!

I don't see the comparisons to Christian Ponder. With Ponder at Florida St. I saw a guy with questionable arm strength and accuracy and was SHOCKED that he was taken as early as he did. I honestly saw him as a 3rd round prospect.

With Murray, if I have to make a comparison, I'd compare him to Andy Dalton with less speed.


I honestly don't know where people are getting this from. I see a guy with an average arm that doesn't have much margin for error when throwing deep. Literally nobody else I've seen or heard is making the claim that Murray has a "strong arm" outside of this site. In some ways I can see the Andy Dalton comparison, you're essentially getting a guy with a lower ceiling who is unlikely to bust but won't be a franchise QB type either.
Originally posted by SunDevilNiner79:
Originally posted by LaMichaelJeff:
I agree completely with SunDevil. IMO Murray has pretty good arm strength and good accuracy. I also feel like he goes through his progressions better than most, and consider that he doesn't have great receivers other than his tight ends!!

I don't see the comparisons to Christian Ponder. With Ponder at Florida St. I saw a guy with questionable arm strength and accuracy and was SHOCKED that he was taken as early as he did. I honestly saw him as a 3rd round prospect.

With Murray, if I have to make a comparison, I'd compare him to Andy Dalton with less speed.

I agree with your comparison of Dalton - Murray. I was thinking the same thing but hesitated to post it

I don't necessarily think Murray will get the nod over Kap, although he can potentially do so, but I feel he'd be real valuable on the sidelines to at least give Kap some notes regarding what defenses are giving the niners' offense.
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Originally posted by LaMichaelJeff:
I agree completely with SunDevil. IMO Murray has pretty good arm strength and good accuracy. I also feel like he goes through his progressions better than most, and consider that he doesn't have great receivers other than his tight ends!!

I don't see the comparisons to Christian Ponder. With Ponder at Florida St. I saw a guy with questionable arm strength and accuracy and was SHOCKED that he was taken as early as he did. I honestly saw him as a 3rd round prospect.

With Murray, if I have to make a comparison, I'd compare him to Andy Dalton with less speed.


I honestly don't know where people are getting this from. I see a guy with an average arm that doesn't have much margin for error when throwing deep. Literally nobody else I've seen or heard is making the claim that Murray has a "strong arm" outside of this site. In some ways I can see the Andy Dalton comparison, you're essentially getting a guy with a lower ceiling who is unlikely to bust but won't be a franchise QB type either.

I honestly don't see how you can say he's got an average arm?! They play the Georgia games every weekend over here and I see a damn dependable arm. It's no noodle, and i think it's better than average.
Originally posted by LaMichaelJeff:
I honestly don't see how you can say he's got an average arm?! They play the Georgia games every weekend over here and I see a damn dependable arm. It's no noodle, and i think it's better than average.

It'd be one thing if this was my opinion alone but it simply isn't, look around if you don't believe me, the guy has an average arm, he doesn't throw with good velocity, he routinely underthrows the ball, for what its worth, he looks like he can be a good game manager type of QB in the NFL and have a long career as well, but if we're talking a true franchise QB, I just don't see it at all, the ceiling is too low.

The guy I'm very interested in is Christian LeMay who is next up to be the starter at UGA after Murray leaves, he was the top ranked quarterback in the nation coming out of high school, and his ceiling is pretty absurd if he puts it all together.
[ Edited by Phoenix49ers on Nov 18, 2013 at 1:23 PM ]
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
It'd be one thing if this was my opinion alone but it simply isn't, look around if you don't believe me, the guy has an average arm, he doesn't throw with good velocity, he routinely underthrows the ball, for what its worth, he looks like he can be a good game manager type of QB in the NFL and have a long career as well, but if we're talking a true franchise QB, I just don't see it at all, the ceiling is too low.

The guy I'm very interested in is Christian LeMay who is next up to be the starter at UGA after Murray leaves, he was the top ranked quarterback in the nation coming out of high school, and his ceiling is pretty absurd if he puts it all together.

but that's the thing, though. i'm drafting Murray with the thought of Kap still being the franchise QB. that's why drafting Murray in the 3rd is the best bet. developing him under Harbaugh could be huge for us.
Originally posted by LaMichaelJeff:
but that's the thing, though. i'm drafting Murray with the thought of Kap still being the franchise QB. that's why drafting Murray in the 3rd is the best bet. developing him under Harbaugh could be huge for us.

Which is fine, but if you're drafting a guy to be a backup and to develop into a starter, there will be a lot of other choices available that can be had in the late 3rd or the 4th round. I still expect Murray to be a 2nd round pick unless he struggles at the Senior Bowl and offseason workouts. The talent is there, the leadership ability, he took the reins of a quality SEC team as a freshman and has done well, I just don't see a big ceiling with him. If a team needs a guy to come in and start right off the bat the way Dalton did, Murray is your guy.
Who'd have thought we'd even be discussing this a year ago...my how quickly things change. I'd agree WRT Carr...he's been outstanding and a big reason why Fresno St. is likely to win the MWC. Also like Kevin Hogan from Stanford...he doesn't have the passing stats Carr does, but has good size, toughness and makes plays. Coach Shaw likes to run the ball, as we saw in their win over Oregon. But Hogan's got abilities. Not sure I buy the Johnny Football hype...he's a playmaker, no doubt. Just not sure he's tough enough for the NFL. Could be wrong on that, we'll see. I hope he returns for his Jr season...think he'll be a lot more NFL-ready with 3 years starting in SEC. Mettenberger from LSU has improved markedly under the tutelage of Cam Cameron. I'd consider him, too.
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Which is fine, but if you're drafting a guy to be a backup and to develop into a starter, there will be a lot of other choices available that can be had in the late 3rd or the 4th round. I still expect Murray to be a 2nd round pick unless he struggles at the Senior Bowl and offseason workouts. The talent is there, the leadership ability, he took the reins of a quality SEC team as a freshman and has done well, I just don't see a big ceiling with him. If a team needs a guy to come in and start right off the bat the way Dalton did, Murray is your guy.

So who do you think is a 2nd/3rd round QB we should take over Murray?

Per CBS rankings, the QBs in Murray's draft range is as follows: Brett Hundley, Tajh Boyd, A.J. McCarron or Jimmy Garoppolo.

I'd take Murray over those guys. And I think Murray has a stronger arm than all those guys, well not sure about Garoppolo as I haven't seen him.

I seriously doubt Hundley comes out this year as he has been average at best.

So I'm curious who you think is a mid round QB that has such superior arm strength to Murray?