Darqueze Dennard-CB-Michigan State

Originally posted by Scoots:
So, if the 49ers system is built to use tall, fast, long armed corners shouldn't the 49ers be drafting tall fast long armed corners?

Who said that? If anything their system is built for guys that are extremely fluid, have good hips, outstanding coverage instincts and ball-hawking tendencies. If they start to play more press man coverage then you can start to make that argument, but even in doing so, there isn't a better press corner than Dennard in this draft.

Originally posted by Jd925:
- I use Peshek because that's the only thing I could find who's done more in-depth stats. I don't know how reliable his stats are, but it beats saying 'oooo he has long arms... oooo he's got a great 40...ooo his name sounds cool.'

- Missing on one player does not mean that a particular analytical system or analyst is bad. That's like saying Balke and Harbaugh sucks because AJ Jenkins is a bust. It's better to look at the past success rate of someone's overall analysis. Furthermore, there are also a lot of factors to success. I did not have Eric Reid ranked that high based on my own crude statistical rankings... although he played in the SEC and was probably a more natural free safety pick he wasn't super-productive..just above-average. Reid is smart, well-coached and in a great system to excel. I think a lot of coaches really look for qualities in a player that fit in a system or a talent that they can mold. Sometimes coaches are overly optimistic and think they can turn around a player who don't excel in college. If there is a reason for lack of production (ie. bad team, bad coaches, bad system, bad OL etc) I can understand.. in the reverse if you are in a good conference like the SEC you shouldn't expect as much production because it's much more difficult.

-The main point I would make is stats are very important. Oftentimes the reason for a lack of production is a lack of great football skills. Who cares if you can run a 4.2 40yd and have 35 inch arms if you don't produce at an inferior college level where there are weaker, shorter, less athletic competition. If a player isn't productive in a pop-warner D3 league with all the combine measurables in the world, what makes you think they'll excel in the hyper-competitive NFL?

Not sure who you are referring to ? I never had a problem with anyones arm length. My favorite CB this year is Jason Verrett ( arm length 30 5/8 ).

Aside from Roby and Gilbert, Ekpre-Olomu and Aaron Colvin are also highly overrated according to Peshek. Two other names from his most overrated list last year are Keenan Allen and Kenny Stills.

You want production? Sure
Bradley Roby career stats: 132 solo tackles, 179 total tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, 8 interceptions, 41 pass break ups, 2 TD.

* Peshek also cannot understand the attraction people have with Cody Latimer. According to him Devin Street is the better prospect of the two.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Who said that? If anything their system is built for guys that are extremely fluid, have good hips, outstanding coverage instincts and ball-hawking tendencies. If they start to play more press man coverage then you can start to make that argument, but even in doing so, there isn't a better press corner than Dennard in this draft.

I asked a question, no statement was made.

.

Originally posted by DeUh:
Not sure who you are referring to ? I never had a problem with anyones arm length. My favorite CB this year is Jason Verrett ( arm length 30 5/8 ).

Aside from Roby and Gilbert, Ekpre-Olomu and Aaron Colvin are also highly overrated according to Peshek. Two other names from his most overrated list last year are Keenan Allen and Kenny Stills.

You want production? Sure
Bradley Roby career stats: 132 solo tackles, 179 total tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, 8 interceptions, 41 pass break ups, 2 TD.

Yeah I was wrong on Keenan Allen too.. but he had a bad QB and he was hurt so that's where stats are limited.

Ok. I like those stats you mentioned with Roby and that indicates very good productivity. I think Roby & Verrett were pretty high on my list before I started deferring to Peshek for more advanced stats. So the question would be what are the best metrics to use?

One question I have is why doesn't Peshek's burn % and YPA correlate? I would expect a high burn % to correlate to higher YPA until I saw that he actually did have some YPA stats in an older article here: http://secondroundstats.com/?p=552

That seems strange to me that YPA is not correlated with burn %. I would look YPA (or yards per target) as a really good broad measure of performance. (I was actually hoping to find YPA stats online for CB's before I bumped into burn %'s from Peshek).. so the question remains why don't YPA and burn % correlate. Roby seems to have outstandingly low YPA but high burn % where as Dennard/Verrett have low burn %, but high YPA... am I missing something?

Originally posted by Jd925:
Ok. I like those stats you mentioned with Roby and that indicates very good productivity. I think Roby & Verrett were pretty high on my list before I started deferring to Peshek for more advanced stats. So the question would be what are the best metrics to use?

I dont think that there is something like "the best metric". I always go with the tape first. Without the tape and a full understanding of schemes / Players responsibilities all of those stats can be misleading quite easily. For example I justed posted Robys career stats. What you dont know when looking at them is that at least 1 INT was a pure gift by Wisconsins QB.
Also when you look at Dennards burn rate 20 yrds+ it Looks pretty good. But what you dont see is that quite a few times safety help over the top saved his ass. Not many times but a single completion more or less makes a huge difference to a burn rate.

To be fair even Peshek himself says that his CB Metrics can be misleading without the tape and uses the Kyle Fuller vs Devin Street matchup as an example that I showed In the Roby thread.

Here it is again.


If Street runs any other route it would be a completion. But because of the play call Street runs a 5 yrd out, Fuller has timer to recover and makes a deflection. This deflection lowers Fullers burn rate and increases his overall pass deflection rate.

"Unlike ProFootballFocus, I'm not in the business of grading plays to go with my stats. I just don't have the man-power or ability to go through every play, collect the relevant data and then assign it a grade. So while this play may have given Fuller an overall negative grade per PFF, Fuller receives a deflection and better numbers." Greg Peshek



* Peshek also cannot understand the attraction people have with Cody Latimer. According to him Devin Street is the better prospect of the two.

Originally posted by Jd925:
Yeah I was wrong on Keenan Allen too.. but he had a bad QB and he was hurt so that's where stats are limited.

Ok. I like those stats you mentioned with Roby and that indicates very good productivity. I think Roby & Verrett were pretty high on my list before I started deferring to Peshek for more advanced stats. So the question would be what are the best metrics to use?

One question I have is why doesn't Peshek's burn % and YPA correlate? I would expect a high burn % to correlate to higher YPA until I saw that he actually did have some YPA stats in an older article here: http://secondroundstats.com/?p=552

That seems strange to me that YPA is not correlated with burn %. I would look YPA (or yards per target) as a really good broad measure of performance. (I was actually hoping to find YPA stats online for CB's before I bumped into burn %'s from Peshek).. so the question remains why don't YPA and burn % correlate. Roby seems to have outstandingly low YPA but high burn % where as Dennard/Verrett have low burn %, but high YPA... am I missing something?

Oh I think Peshek means YPA is the attempted yds per target and YPC is the actual yds per completion (including YAC?).. YPC is lower than YPA because a lower % of longer passes were actually completed I assume.. but if you multiply YPC with burn % you'd get the avg yds allowed which I was actually looking for. I'll call it YPT (yards allowed per target)

Hence the actual avg yds allowed should be the following I presume (I'm using Peshek's raw burn % without adjustments for screens or pass interference):

raw burn % x YPC = YPT avg yards allowed per target

Dennard 33.33% x 7.04 = 2.34 YPT
Fuller 32.43% x 9.42 = 3.05 YPT
Ekpre-Olumu 64.71% x 6.9 = 4.46 YPT
Colvin 55.56% x 8.41 = 4.67 YPT
Roby 54.9% x 9.04 = 4.96 YPT
Gilbert 48% x 10.67 = 5.12 YPT
Verrett 45% x 14.47 = 6.51 YPT

Verrett and Ekpre-Olumu seem to have been avoided being thrown at so I'll also look at estimated total yds/game allowed:
(Assume an average of 40 snaps per game)

Dennard = 40 / 5.62 snaps/target = 7.11 targets x 2.34 YPT = 16.63 yds/game
Ekpre-Olumu = 40/7.94 snaps/target = 5.03 targets x 4.46 YPT = 22.47 yds/game
Fuller = 40/ 4.49 snaps/target = 8.9 targets x 3.05 YPT = 27.1 yds/game
Gilbert = 40/ 5.9 snaps/target = 6.78 targets x 5.12 YPT = 34.71 yds/game
Verrett = 40 / 6.73 snaps/target = 5.93 targets x 6.51 YPT = 38.6 yds/game
Colvin = 40 / 4.61 snaps/target = 8.68 targets x 4.67 YPT = 40.52 yds/game
Roby = 40 / 4.8 snaps/target = 8.33 targets x 4.96 YPT = 41.31 yds/game

Note: As far as productivity based on yards allowed per target & total yards allowed per game I think Dennard, Olumu and Fuller are the top three.. Olumu is not in this year's draft. These are based on 9 games. I don't know how accurate Peshek's numbers are. This is a quick analysis so hopefully someone double checks cuz I did this fast..

Other metrics I would look at for adjustments are: 1) opposing WR/QB & pass offense competition. 2) defense front pressure

Originally posted by DeUh:
I dont think that there is something like "the best metric". I always go with the tape first. Without the tape and a full understanding of schemes / Players responsibilities all of those stats can be misleading quite easily. For example I justed posted Robys career stats. What you dont know when looking at them is that at least 1 INT was a pure gift by Wisconsins QB.
Also when you look at Dennards burn rate 20 yrds+ it Looks pretty good. But what you dont see is that quite a few times safety help over the top saved his ass. Not many times but a single completion more or less makes a huge difference to a burn rate.

To be fair even Peshek himself says that his CB Metrics can be misleading without the tape and uses the Kyle Fuller vs Devin Street matchup as an example that I showed In the Roby thread.

Here it is again.


If Street runs any other route it would be a completion. But because of the play call Street runs a 5 yrd out, Fuller has timer to recover and makes a deflection. This deflection lowers Fullers burn rate and increases his overall pass deflection rate.

"Unlike ProFootballFocus, I'm not in the business of grading plays to go with my stats. I just don't have the man-power or ability to go through every play, collect the relevant data and then assign it a grade. So while this play may have given Fuller an overall negative grade per PFF, Fuller receives a deflection and better numbers." Greg Peshek



* Peshek also cannot understand the attraction people have with Cody Latimer. According to him Devin Street is the better prospect of the two.

I like watching film and schemes are important, but I would go with stats first especially for armchair GMs or the average fan. Film can be broken down into stats so people can easily compare and contrast. You can always adjust for schemes/ safety help/competition etc.. If you focused on just film, it would be too difficult to watch all the games on all the players against all the WR/QB competition in various schemes... It would be harder to keep all that info in your head to compare even a few players against each other. You'll probably end up remembering a few highlights and focusing on those that look good vs those that play well, especially those that are consistent. I think the same problem holds true for scouts even though they have more time and resources.

That gif of fuller looks to me like he lost focus or was distracted for some reason... thought he heard a whistle? Have no idea.. it's bad he lost focus, but he had good recovery.. it's a wash to me... but that's just one play out of hundreds.. it'll all average out in the end...

Dennard's stats make him look like a stud, but maybe he had great safety help or had help from his defensive front or played in great schemes.....these are all adjustments you can make to see how good someone really is, but stats is where I would start.

Originally posted by VPofCarnage:
Roby has a pink slip on it with the name Allen Robinson on it because Roby owned him 2 years in a row (this year he only gave up passes to Robinson on a couple of screen plays & on a 3-yard pass. Dennard has never faced Allen Robinson as far as I know. Roby had one of his best games as a buckeye against Keenen Allen last year. Dennard has NEVER faced anyone even close to as good as Kennan Allen.

In fact, the best receiver Dennard ever faced is probably Cody Lattimer, and Trae Waynes was covering Lattimer most of the day the last time they played each other. Well, except for this play:

Short arms & low strength matter when you're 5'11 & trying to contest passes in close proximity. By the way, it was a touchdown despite Dennard's incomplete sign.

Dennard has bust written all over him.

None of that not even one game vs Keenan Allen gives Roby some head and shoulders advantage over Dennard in terms of level of competition that they have faced. There is nothing that points to Dennard "having bust written all over him", that's your opinion. And as far as "low strength" goes, he put up 2 reps fewer than Roby on the bench.

Originally posted by VPofCarnage:
This is true. Roby is much, much, MUCH better than Dennard.

Again, opinion not fact. By comparison of their 2013 game tapes, Dennard was better than Roby, and that isn't opinion it's fact. One player continued to improve while the other regressed. There is a whole lot of talk about Roby's press man skills (which he played little press coverage, most of his man coverage was off man) yet Dennard was the guy being left on islands repeatedly allowing Pat Narduzzi to be aggressive with the scheme and playcalling. Roby as the year progressed wasn't even covering teams #1 guys...one could question how much trust the coaches had in him.

Originally posted by KRS-1:
None of that not even one game vs Keenan Allen gives Roby some head and shoulders advantage over Dennard in terms of level of competition that they have faced. There is nothing that points to Dennard "having bust written all over him", that's your opinion. And as far as "low strength" goes, he put up 2 reps fewer than Roby on the bench.


Again, opinion not fact. By comparison of their 2013 game tapes, Dennard was better than Roby, and that isn't opinion it's fact. One player continued to improve while the other regressed. There is a whole lot of talk about Roby's press man skills (which he played little press coverage, most of his man coverage was off man) yet Dennard was the guy being left on islands repeatedly allowing Pat Narduzzi to be aggressive with the scheme and playcalling. Roby as the year progressed wasn't even covering teams #1 guys...one could question how much trust the coaches had in him.

Pretty much this. The actual results don't lie, Dennard was a better, more consistent player this past season while Roby was a long completion waiting to happen. Not sure what his deal is, if he had a season-long injury, ADHD or maybe he's just potato but Roby wasn't on the same level as Dennard or even close which is why Dennard received the Jim Thorpe award and was compared to Deion in his impact on the game while Roby got a "good game sport" consolation prize.

The 77-page report from NFL talent evaluator Dave-Te Thomas concluded that Dennard "might be that 'next great shutdown cornerback' a Big Ten school has produced," Dodd wrote.

It said 77 throws have come to Dennard's area this season, with just 10 completed for 60 yards and two touchdowns. That's 0.779 of a yard per attempt, and the report said Sanders — a Florida State standout from 1985-88 — was the last corner to allow less than a yard per attempt.

http://www.freep.com/article/20131114/SPORTS07/311140113/michigan-state-spartans

Originally posted by KRS-1:

Again, opinion not fact. By comparison of their 2013 game tapes, Dennard was better than Roby, and that isn't opinion it's fact.

I take it all back.

Originally posted by KRS-1:

And as far as "low strength" goes, he put up 2 reps fewer than Roby on the bench.

With very short arms.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by KRS-1:

None of that not even one game vs Keenan Allen gives Roby some head and shoulders advantage over Dennard in terms of level of competition that they have faced. There is nothing that points to Dennard "having bust written all over him", that's your opinion. And as far as "low strength" goes, he put up 2 reps fewer than Roby on the bench.


Again, opinion not fact. By comparison of their 2013 game tapes, Dennard was better than Roby, and that isn't opinion it's fact. One player continued to improve while the other regressed. There is a whole lot of talk about Roby's press man skills (which he played little press coverage, most of his man coverage was off man) yet Dennard was the guy being left on islands repeatedly allowing Pat Narduzzi to be aggressive with the scheme and playcalling. Roby as the year progressed wasn't even covering teams #1 guys...one could question how much trust the coaches had in him.

Pretty much this. The actual results don't lie, Dennard was a better, more consistent player this past season while Roby was a long completion waiting to happen. Not sure what his deal is, if he had a season-long injury, ADHD or maybe he's just potato but Roby wasn't on the same level as Dennard or even close which is why Dennard received the Jim Thorpe award and was compared to Deion in his impact on the game while Roby got a "good game sport" consolation prize.

The 77-page report from NFL talent evaluator Dave-Te Thomas concluded that Dennard "might be that 'next great shutdown cornerback' a Big Ten school has produced," Dodd wrote.

It said 77 throws have come to Dennard's area this season, with just 10 completed for 60 yards and two touchdowns. That's 0.779 of a yard per attempt, and the report said Sanders â€" a Florida State standout from 1985-88 â€" was the last corner to allow less than a yard per attempt.

http://www.freep.com/article/20131114/SPORTS07/311140113/michigan-state-spartans

Phoenix, what about that poor 3 cone drill ( i think that was the one) result from Dennard? Are you worried about it? From what ive read, its a pretty important drill for a DB to do well in.

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:
Phoenix, what about that poor 3 cone drill ( i think that was the one) result from Dennard? Are you worried about it? From what ive read, its a pretty important drill for a DB to do well in.

Meh. I think analyzing the Combine to death isn't helpful, when you look at the guy play in pads, its clear he can move well, shows good body control. He's very physical at the line of scrimmage and gets a good shot in on the receiver to throw them off their route. I hope more teams obsess over Dennard's Combine numbers and not his actual performance.


For reference, here are the top 5 all-time in the 3-cone-drill at the Scouting Combine:



1. 2011, WR Jeff Maehl (6.42 seconds)



2. 2011, CB Buster Skrine (6.44 seconds)



3. 2010, WR Scott Long (6.45 seconds)



4. 2011, WR Dane Sanzenbacher (6.46 seconds)




5. 2011, WR Terrence Toliver (6.48 seconds)

The top performers in any particular discipline at the combine don't mean anything ... it's in context where the numbers start to matter. But it should always be 70% tape, 5% combine to back up what you saw on tape, and 25% the evaluation of the person not the player.