Originally posted by Jd925:
Yeah I was wrong on Keenan Allen too.. but he had a bad QB and he was hurt so that's where stats are limited.
Ok. I like those stats you mentioned with Roby and that indicates very good productivity. I think Roby & Verrett were pretty high on my list before I started deferring to Peshek for more advanced stats. So the question would be what are the best metrics to use?
One question I have is why doesn't Peshek's burn % and YPA correlate? I would expect a high burn % to correlate to higher YPA until I saw that he actually did have some YPA stats in an older article here: http://secondroundstats.com/?p=552
That seems strange to me that YPA is not correlated with burn %. I would look YPA (or yards per target) as a really good broad measure of performance. (I was actually hoping to find YPA stats online for CB's before I bumped into burn %'s from Peshek).. so the question remains why don't YPA and burn % correlate. Roby seems to have outstandingly low YPA but high burn % where as Dennard/Verrett have low burn %, but high YPA... am I missing something?
Oh I think Peshek means YPA is the attempted yds per target and YPC is the actual yds per completion (including YAC?).. YPC is lower than YPA because a lower % of longer passes were actually completed I assume.. but if you multiply YPC with burn % you'd get the avg yds allowed which I was actually looking for. I'll call it YPT (yards allowed per target)
Hence the actual avg yds allowed should be the following I presume (I'm using Peshek's raw burn % without adjustments for screens or pass interference):
raw burn % x YPC = YPT avg yards allowed per target
Dennard 33.33% x 7.04 = 2.34 YPT
Fuller 32.43% x 9.42 = 3.05 YPT
Ekpre-Olumu 64.71% x 6.9 = 4.46 YPT
Colvin 55.56% x 8.41 = 4.67 YPT
Roby 54.9% x 9.04 = 4.96 YPT
Gilbert 48% x 10.67 = 5.12 YPT
Verrett 45% x 14.47 = 6.51 YPT
Verrett and Ekpre-Olumu seem to have been avoided being thrown at so I'll also look at estimated total yds/game allowed:
(Assume an average of 40 snaps per game)
Dennard = 40 / 5.62 snaps/target = 7.11 targets x 2.34 YPT = 16.63 yds/game
Ekpre-Olumu = 40/7.94 snaps/target = 5.03 targets x 4.46 YPT = 22.47 yds/game
Fuller = 40/ 4.49 snaps/target = 8.9 targets x 3.05 YPT = 27.1 yds/game
Gilbert = 40/ 5.9 snaps/target = 6.78 targets x 5.12 YPT = 34.71 yds/game
Verrett = 40 / 6.73 snaps/target = 5.93 targets x 6.51 YPT = 38.6 yds/game
Colvin = 40 / 4.61 snaps/target = 8.68 targets x 4.67 YPT = 40.52 yds/game
Roby = 40 / 4.8 snaps/target = 8.33 targets x 4.96 YPT = 41.31 yds/game
Note: As far as productivity based on yards allowed per target & total yards allowed per game I think Dennard, Olumu and Fuller are the top three.. Olumu is not in this year's draft. These are based on 9 games. I don't know how accurate Peshek's numbers are. This is a quick analysis so hopefully someone double checks cuz I did this fast..
Other metrics I would look at for adjustments are: 1) opposing WR/QB & pass offense competition. 2) defense front pressure