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2014 49ers draft strategy

Originally posted by theninermaniac:
Draft healthy players. We seriously spent half our draft class on rookies that haven't even suited up.

Like it or not, but I think it's pretty clearly a strategy.

I don't think anyone would have predicted all the injuries we've had, but save for WR (which is the fault of A.J. busting, not drafting an injured guy) the team has still been absolutely fine on depth even with all these rooks not suiting up.

Basically, the argument is that if you don't need starters you can get an injured prospect at a much lower position than a healthy one because practically every other team needs to draft players who have the chance of stepping in and filling an immediate hole. The brass has to believe that Lattimore, Caradine, and Dial would have all gone much higher if they were healthy on draft day, and only fell as low as they did because teams needed people who can start right away.

Some folks might see this and call these luxury picks, but I'd disagree and say it's not only pragmatic, but also smart and a good way to maximize draft value in accordance with the specifics of your team. Remember, when the 9ers have actually had a hole to fill they went and got somebody (e.g. moving up in the first for Eric Reid last year; signing Dorsey, etc.).
trade up for Sammy Watkins. somehow get Justin Gilbert in the 3rd. BOOM
I think we need to draft 2 WR N 2 CB with in tha first 5 picks we have..then go for after tha best OT N safety then next 2 picks....then a backup center/guard. ..after that if fill in stuff MLB ,OLB ,QB whatever BPA ...
Originally posted by PopeyeJonesing:
Originally posted by theninermaniac:
Draft healthy players. We seriously spent half our draft class on rookies that haven't even suited up.

Like it or not, but I think it's pretty clearly a strategy.

I don't think anyone would have predicted all the injuries we've had, but save for WR (which is the fault of A.J. busting, not drafting an injured guy) the team has still been absolutely fine on depth even with all these rooks not suiting up.

Basically, the argument is that if you don't need starters you can get an injured prospect at a much lower position than a healthy one because practically every other team needs to draft players who have the chance of stepping in and filling an immediate hole. The brass has to believe that Lattimore, Caradine, and Dial would have all gone much higher if they were healthy on draft day, and only fell as low as they did because teams needed people who can start right away.

Some folks might see this and call these luxury picks, but I'd disagree and say it's not only pragmatic, but also smart and a good way to maximize draft value in accordance with the specifics of your team. Remember, when the 9ers have actually had a hole to fill they went and got somebody (e.g. moving up in the first for Eric Reid last year; signing Dorsey, etc.).

Agreed. Our team, in particular our defense, is going to be BEASTLY the second half of the year.
I'll summarize it up with this: (If you want explanations you can read below)

1st Round, 2nd Round, 1st 3rd Rounder: I expect CB, SS and WR to be our 1st 3 picks (in any order). Then another CB.
2nd 3rd Rounder & Goldson Comp: 2 of the following: WR, DE, 3rd T, C/G Combo (Or Trade 2nd 3rd Rounder)
4th and 5th: Pick 2 options not taken with 2nd 3rd/Goldson Comp.
6 and (4) 7s: 3rd QB, Kicker? Other Depth? or Use to trade up earlier in rounds.

CB - I see Brown leaving for more money as he has gotten underpaid for probably 3-4 years now. I see Rogers being asked to take a pay cut. I'm not confident he will and if he doesn't he could be gone. I see either Cox or Brock being back. Morris has a shot at #5 or 6 now with Cooper being gone. Depending on if Brown and/or Rogers is back I think we take a CB in the 1st or with the Chiefs 2nd. Then I could see us taking one in the 3rd and one in the late rounds. So I expect 2-3 CB's.

SS - Whitner I would move on from even if he plays better. Only way I'd want him back if he'd come back for like 1 year for vet min to mentor/compete for a starting job. I don't see him coming back for that and knowing him he still thinks he can start so won't want to mentor. He's doing a good job of mentoring Reid but Reid was never competing with him. I see him getting 2-4 years and better money elsewhere. I'd pick a SS in the 1st or with KC's 2nd (CB with the other pick). Even though I say pick a SS I wouldn't mind if we picked a FS and converted him to SS. I'd like the SS to be able to cover rather than be a guy who can tackle but can't cover. We have a front 7 that's solid against the run and I'd rather have a SS who can cover backs, TEs, WRs than stop the run. Doesn't mean I don't want him to be able to tackle though. Also, maybe we take another S late although Ventrone and Dahl are signed for next year.

WR - Again, will depend on who is back. If Boldin and Manningham are back I'd probably just go 1 WR with our 2nd 2nd rounder or one of our 3rd. I'd go with a deep threat which we haven't had in awhile. If Boldin and Manningham aren't back I think about a WR in the 1st or with our 1st 2nd instead of CB or SS. Either way I think CB, SS and WR should be our 1st 3 picks. If just one is back then they will likely be the #2 along with Crabtree and Patton would be 3, Baldwin 4, Harper 5, Rookie 6 until he is ready. Or the rookie would be #5 if Harper is going to be our 3rd TE. So I see us taking 1 or 2 WRs. If Boldin/Manningham are gone I get probably 1 deep threat and 1 possession (although not a really slow one). Probably in round 2 or 3 and then another one in round 4.

C - I think they see Kilgore as the center of the future. If he isn't we might have to use our 2nd 2nd rounder or 3rd round pick on one to compete with him.

Then Depth Rounds 3 or 4 through 7:
OL - I think Marquardt has a spot to win the 3rd T next year. Could also draft one as high as the late 3rd or 4th. I think Snyder will be back. Depth chart could look like: Staley, Iupati, Kilgore, Boone, Davis.... Snyder... Marquardt, Bykowski or Rookie (3rd T), Looney or rookie C/G (Backup C/G). We could kill 2 birds with 1 stone if we wanted by taking a C/G versatile guy in round 3 or 4 who would compete with Kilgore while still getting reps at G and if he lost would be backup C and backup G. If he wins would be starting C and Kilgore goes to backup C/G.

DE - I see an open spot with Dobbs and possibly TJE gone. I think McDonald, Dorsey, Justin, Carradine, Williams, Dial, rookie. So the 6 we have now and a rookie as high as the 3rd round. Maybe we turn Williams back into a DE if Dorsey and Dial are doing well at NT. Would put us in better shape with Carradine and Williams as backup DE's. If not we definitely need another DE.

3rd QB - McCoy or Skelton will be gone after this year. Maybe both. Will need a 3 or maybe 2 as well.

K? - Haven't drafted one since 02. Seems unlikely as we like vets (or Dawson back) but maybe.

If we get a Goldson comp we will probably trade one of other 2 3rd rounders. Can't trade comp picks of course. I'll throw it out there that I normally am not a big fan of giving up a lot of picks to get a high 1st. I'd rather not give up both 2nds, 2 3rds and our 1st for a mid round 1st because we will have holes to fill for the future. Not sure all that is worth a super star. Just have to keep hitting with our picks. However, if we do want to go that route this would be the year as we are loaded with picks.
[ Edited by Gore_21 on Oct 7, 2013 at 9:24 PM ]
From the look of things right now, CB, S, and WR are looking like the top priorities for next year's draft. I expect a somewhat heavy secondary draft; it's about time to revamp and rebuild the DB depth with fresh, young, exciting play makers

CB - Carlos Rogers and Nnamdi will both be 33 next year. Carlos has been just OK, but as last year, his production hasn't been equivalent to the big checks we're paying him. Either he restructures or gets cut. Nnamdi has been mediocre and disturbingly fragile/injury prone. No extension for him. Tarell Brown has been solid but there might be other teams willing to pay him more than what we offer him and I honestly wouldn't blame him if he explores his options during free agency. This group as a whole needs some youth to compliment Cully. I can see us drafting a CB with the first round pick and most likely picking up another in the second or third rounds as well and dabbling into free agency.
Favorite Draft Prospects: Jason Verrett (TCU), Ifo Ekpre Olomu (Oregon), Louichez Purifoy (Florida), Marcus Roberson (Florida), Aaron Colvin (Oklahoma)

S - Hitner has been looking pretty good lately but even then, he's not the long term solution at safety. Even if we do resign him after this year (still a huge IF), it'll be no more than 1 or 2 years. If Donte stays, I still think we should draft a young safety in the early rounds, just to groom and develop to eventually take his place and compliment Reid.
Favorite Draft Prospects: Ha'sean Clinton Dix (Alabama), Ed Reynolds (Standford), Craig Loston (LSU)

WR - Currently, WR depth is scary thin due to unfortunate injuries. How Baalke approaches drafting in this area depends on who is coming back and who produces. Crabtree and Patton should be back. Manningham can be extended, hopefully so can Boldin and possibly Baldwin if he and Kap develop some chemistry. If we can keep some quality guys around, drafting a WR in the 1st round becomes less and less of a priority. But I'm not opposed to drafting one in round 2 or 3 to develop just in case
Favorite Draft Prospects: Marquise Lee (USC), Jordan Matthews (Vanderbilt), Brandon Coleman (Rutgers), Donte Moncreif (Ole Miss)

Others?

QB - Hopefully Harbaugh can work his magic on Skelton. I gather he has completely given up hope on McCoy and that he is most likely gone next year. So we should probably draft another QB in the mid rounds.

K - Am I the only one concerned with Phil Dawson's inconsistency? Plus the guy is like 40 years old and past his prime. Not long term.
Originally posted by outside4949:
If you count up entrenched starters incoming rookies and guys coming off redshirt seasons and the guys coming off injuries. There is going to be a serious shortage of roster spots. If there was ever a draft to trade up high it would be this one. We have 2 holes on this team at wr and cb. Because of our front 7 on defense and our lack off speed on offense. To me the bigger hole is wr. I think we use our draft capitol to try and get up in the top of the first round and draft marquis lee. If you were the gm what is your strategy for this draft?

I disagree. I think we will have many holes to fill next season. Considering Nmandi Asomugha, Tramaine Brock, Perish Cox, and Tarrell Brown all have expiring contracts and Carlos Rogers has a pretty large cap figure, we are going to have to hit corner hard in the draft and/or free agency. I think we should draft at least two corners high and they all would have a legitimate shot at becoming starters. I believe all five positions will be up for grabs next season. I think we could bring back Cox and Brock, but only because they are experienced and will not be expensive to resign. And we have Chris Culliver coming of of injury. So it's set up that whoever comes in will receive some major playing time and not simply be redshirted. Then the safety position will probably be open next season. That makes a third roster spot at worse. On defensive line, I'm hoping two roster spots are available to replace Demarcus Dobbs and Tony Jerod Eddie, however those probably will be filled by Quinton Dial and Tank Carradine. That will give us a total of 6 defensive lineman including our current starters and Ian Williams. We could still use another nose tackle to give us a total of 7. That makes at least four available roster spots.

I'm going to say based off of what we've seen so far, we should be drafting a kicker. Phil Dawson hasn't done anything to stir up memories of David Akers before the 2012 season. When you are paying 3 million a year for a kicker, you're pretty much expecting him to make all kicks 45 yards or so and under and a good percentage of kicks further out. If we aren't getting that, we may as well go with a rookie for less than a third of the price. That gives us 5 roster spots.

On the offensive side of the ball, Anthony Dixon will probably move on to a team where he can compete to be the number 2 running back. I don't think we will replace him with another running back, but that does gives us another open spot.

Receiver is the other area where we will have some gaping holes. We are guaranteed to have Michael Crabtree, Quinton Patton, and Jon Baldwin. I'm hoping we can resign Mario Manningham longterm. That leaves us with four receivers and a possibility of two open spots. One could possibly go to Anquan Boldin (I'm hoping it does), but what we are missing is a true burner. A receiver where teams HAVE to respect their speed and consequently play off of him. They could also serve as our primary returner. The second receiver would be insurance in the event that we don't resign Crabtree after the 2014 season.

On the offensive line, Goodwin is as good as gone. I can see him being replaced by either Kilgore or Looney. That still leaves one backup G/C position available. There is no guarantee that Adam Snyder is back. And we still need a swing tackle, though I would prefer to sign a veteran to a minimum deal to back up Staley and Davis as opposed to bringing in a rookie.

All in all, worse case scenario, we have 7 spots that could potentially be filled by members of the 2014 draft class. Perhaps after losing so many guys, most notably Marcus Cooper when they were waived, our team will be more open to holding onto rookies they see have potential.
  • buck
  • Veteran
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Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Once more, I would take a safety early to pair up with Reid. Whitner is playing well now, long term he's not the answer, having two safeties who are tall, very good in coverage opens up the defense to a lot more possibilities as far as moving guys around all over the place, more options.......wait who am I kidding, Fangio is about as vanilla as it gets.

Having two safeties that are good in coverage, are sure tacklers, and are smart players would be ideal.

Clinton-Dix and/or Ed Reynolds could well be there when we pick. I am sure there are other possibilities, I just do not know who they are.
[ Edited by buck on Oct 5, 2013 at 8:24 AM ]
  • Jcool
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Cam Inman ‏@CamInman

I just saw a #49ers draft prospect: Georgia WR Chris Conley, 6-3, acrobatic 1-handed TD catch. Must see Georgia at Vandy when 49ers in Nash

#49ers, meet Clemson WR Sammy Watkins
Originally posted by Harkonnenzombie:
I would LOVE for us to trade up for Mike Evans. There is plently of corners that can be found in the 2nd and 3rd round.

I think that would be a big mistake. Evans has late 2nd round to 3rd round written all over him IMO (and he probably won't even declare this season).
  • mayo49
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WR in the first, CB in the 2nd.
Need a quick, downfield threat receiver next year. Seattle's DB's struggle against speed receivers. They did it again yesterday against TY Hilton and the Colts.
I say if you're gonna trade up for a wideout then do it for the best, Sammy Watkins!
should go heavy on WRs and CBs.
Draft a skinny, wimpy WR who trips and falls down and can't get off the line and gets thrown around like a rag doll by Seahawks DB's. Plus he can't catch and has no confidence.


[ Edited by SanDiego49er on Oct 8, 2013 at 12:33 AM ]