There are 229 users in the forums

Remember
Not a member? Register Now!

Wide Receiver Class of 2014

^ Didn't want to quote all of that, but I definitely appreciate the work. Ellington's 10yd split is a great example of a failing of the combine, IMO. His start looked clumsy and aweful, but that was likely his last time in a 3 pt stance. It's so "important" for us to compare 40 times across different positions, that we are testing acceleration out of a position that no one uses in the game. Ellington's acceleration off the snap of the ball is elite, but his 10 yd split fails to recognize that, likely because he did not acclimate well to a stance he never played in. 40 yards, and especially the first 10, is far too short of a distance for a bad start not to effect an athlete's time dramatically. I'm not convinced that his top end speed is anything special, but his acceleration, on the field, is up there with anyone in the class, IMO.
^^ Interesting observations Wrathman44. I've been a fan of the agility drills more than the dashes for some time. Players seldom run free for 40 yards down the field on a given play...but they are constantly playing the opponent, trying to out quick the guy. It's also important to know how guys prepared for the combine. Some understand how important it is and train for years in the given events...others just train a bit after their last season. Makes a huge difference in starts.

I'm always very curious to see what happens with guys like Jarvis Landry, who dissappointed during the combine but look all-world on the field. I've seldom seen a receiver take the ball away from DBs with as much authority as Landry.
Originally posted by WRATHman44:
^ Didn't want to quote all of that, but I definitely appreciate the work. Ellington's 10yd split is a great example of a failing of the combine, IMO. His start looked clumsy and aweful, but that was likely his last time in a 3 pt stance. It's so "important" for us to compare 40 times across different positions, that we are testing acceleration out of a position that no one uses in the game. Ellington's acceleration off the snap of the ball is elite, but his 10 yd split fails to recognize that, likely because he did not acclimate well to a stance he never played in. 40 yards, and especially the first 10, is far too short of a distance for a bad start not to effect an athlete's time dramatically. I'm not convinced that his top end speed is anything special, but his acceleration, on the field, is up there with anyone in the class, IMO.

I hadn't noticed that before, but Ellington beat Cooks on the final 30 yards of the 40. If his start is a function of having bad technique which could be the case (he looks like he has a reasonable burst off the line), then he's much faster than his 40 indicates. He's a pretty comparable athlete to Cooks across the board - had a better vertical and 3 cone but worse shuttles and his 40 would've been very similar if he had a reasonable start. Cooks is the more polished receiver and is slightly taller, but Ellington has slightly longer arms and is a little heavier. I like that he was the starting PG for their basketball team too - he's obviously very coordinated and I'm interested to see how he improves now that his focus is entirely on football. I would rather have Ellington in the 3rd than Cooks in the 1st, but I'm sure GM's are aware of the slow 10 yard split Ellington had and realize he can easily run in the 4.3's.
Originally posted by buck:
Physical capabilities are a consideration when drafting.

Here is a table that details some of physical capacities of the wide receiver class.

I did not include all the receivers. It is broken down into 2 sections that good and the bad.
The last column targets met/events participated in. I did not count events with no data or events with no participation.

The blue indicates the number is from a pro day, not the combine.


It will interesting to see if these numbers are an indicator of how these prospects actually play in the NFL.


Your last column is inaccurate for some of the WR's (it's arbitrary anyways and based on targets which are the same for different types of receivers).

Brown and Robinson should be 6/7.
Moncrief should be 4/6.
Janis should be 7/7.
Heron should be 5/7.
Wilson should be 4/6.
Evans and Matthews should be 4/7.
Originally posted by VPofCarnage:
I don't see why anyone would trade up to draft a WR like Watkins or Evans in the 1st when they can get a guy who might be as good or better in the late 1st to mid 2nd round like Matthews or Moncrief.

Because Evans and Watkins are elite prospects, while the other two will probably compete for a starting job.
Originally posted by solidg2000:
Originally posted by WRATHman44:
Originally posted by buck:
Last list from Mayock

Wide receiver
1. Sammy Watkins, Clemson
2. Mike Evans, Texas A&M
3. Marqise Lee, USC
4. Brandin Cooks, Oregon State
t5. Kelvin Benjamin, Florida State
t5. Jarvis Landry, LSU
t5. Odell Beckham, LSU

He's such a punk, always copping out with his 5th place ties.
I knew he wouldn't drop Landry that much since he was soo high on him pre combine

Yeah, I'm glad Landry is that high still. Mayock's rankings most resemble my own thoughts. The only change I'd make is swapping Landry and Benjamin.
Originally posted by strickac:
Originally posted by solidg2000:
Originally posted by WRATHman44:
Originally posted by buck:
Last list from Mayock

Wide receiver
1. Sammy Watkins, Clemson
2. Mike Evans, Texas A&M
3. Marqise Lee, USC
4. Brandin Cooks, Oregon State
t5. Kelvin Benjamin, Florida State
t5. Jarvis Landry, LSU
t5. Odell Beckham, LSU

He's such a punk, always copping out with his 5th place ties.
I knew he wouldn't drop Landry that much since he was soo high on him pre combine

Yeah, I'm glad Landry is that high still. Mayock's rankings most resemble my own thoughts. The only change I'd make is swapping Landry and Benjamin.

They are tied at 5...
Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
Originally posted by WRATHman44:
^ Didn't want to quote all of that, but I definitely appreciate the work. Ellington's 10yd split is a great example of a failing of the combine, IMO. His start looked clumsy and aweful, but that was likely his last time in a 3 pt stance. It's so "important" for us to compare 40 times across different positions, that we are testing acceleration out of a position that no one uses in the game. Ellington's acceleration off the snap of the ball is elite, but his 10 yd split fails to recognize that, likely because he did not acclimate well to a stance he never played in. 40 yards, and especially the first 10, is far too short of a distance for a bad start not to effect an athlete's time dramatically. I'm not convinced that his top end speed is anything special, but his acceleration, on the field, is up there with anyone in the class, IMO.

I hadn't noticed that before, but Ellington beat Cooks on the final 30 yards of the 40. If his start is a function of having bad technique which could be the case (he looks like he has a reasonable burst off the line), then he's much faster than his 40 indicates. He's a pretty comparable athlete to Cooks across the board - had a better vertical and 3 cone but worse shuttles and his 40 would've been very similar if he had a reasonable start. Cooks is the more polished receiver and is slightly taller, but Ellington has slightly longer arms and is a little heavier. I like that he was the starting PG for their basketball team too - he's obviously very coordinated and I'm interested to see how he improves now that his focus is entirely on football. I would rather have Ellington in the 3rd than Cooks in the 1st, but I'm sure GM's are aware of the slow 10 yard split Ellington had and realize he can easily run in the 4.3's.

I'd prefer Ellington to Cooks for this team, regardless of where they are drafted, simply because Rllington's physicality and willingness to block could get him on the field more frequently. I agree that they are comparable athletically, but I find it more impressive that Ellington is that mobile, sudden, and shifty with a stouter build.
Originally posted by dtg_9er:
^^ Interesting observations Wrathman44. I've been a fan of the agility drills more than the dashes for some time. Players seldom run free for 40 yards down the field on a given play...but they are constantly playing the opponent, trying to out quick the guy. It's also important to know how guys prepared for the combine. Some understand how important it is and train for years in the given events...others just train a bit after their last season. Makes a huge difference in starts.

I'm always very curious to see what happens with guys like Jarvis Landry, who dissappointed during the combine but look all-world on the field. I've seldom seen a receiver take the ball away from DBs with as much authority as Landry.

I think that says a lot about Matthews' 40 time. We all know his work ethic is top shelf, but he's not nearly as fast as Bryant and Reece (Reese?), like his time would indicate.

I think Landry will be fine. Reported hammy injury, out of position starting stance, and reams of positive game film all limit the effect of one silly test on his stock. I wouldn't be surprised if it dropped him out of the first, in a class this stacked, but I'd be stunned if he isn't gone before the end of day 2.
Originally posted by WRATHman44:
They are tied at 5...

I get that, professor. I'm stating how I view them. Head scratcher, I know... I didn't have Beckham higher or include Moncrief.
Originally posted by WRATHman44:
I think that says a lot about Matthews' 40 time. We all know his work ethic is top shelf, but he's not nearly as fast as Bryant and Reece (Reese?), like his time would indicate.

I think Landry will be fine. Reported hammy injury, out of position starting stance, and reams of positive game film all limit the effect of one silly test on his stock. I wouldn't be surprised if it dropped him out of the first, in a class this stacked, but I'd be stunned if he isn't gone before the end of day 2.

Agree with this, which is the only concern I have for Matthews...but he was not known for being a fast receiver anyway, so I'm still a big fan of his overall game. Landry is another favorite of mine so would love to see either on the niners. I realize that speed is needed so hope they take at least two receivers--a Beckham/Cooks type and a Matthews/Landry type. There seem to be a few really fast guys predicted for the 3-4 rounds, so perhaps if Matthews falls to them...
  • buck
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 11,530
Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
Your last column is inaccurate for some of the WR's (it's arbitrary anyways and based on targets which are the same for different types of receivers).

Yes, the targets are arbitrary, but those are the commonly accepted targets--and there are no official targets.
Make of them what you will.

Brown and Robinson should be 6/7.
Moncrief should be 4/6.
Janis should be 7/7.
Heron should be 5/7.
Wilson should be 4/6.
Evans and Matthews should be 4/7.

Thanks. I will check and make the changes.
And I need the practice counting.

I corrected and reposted the table. Thanks again.
[ Edited by buck on Apr 6, 2014 at 9:33 AM ]
Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Originally posted by WRATHman44:
I think that says a lot about Matthews' 40 time. We all know his work ethic is top shelf, but he's not nearly as fast as Bryant and Reece (Reese?), like his time would indicate.

I think Landry will be fine. Reported hammy injury, out of position starting stance, and reams of positive game film all limit the effect of one silly test on his stock. I wouldn't be surprised if it dropped him out of the first, in a class this stacked, but I'd be stunned if he isn't gone before the end of day 2.

Agree with this, which is the only concern I have for Matthews...but he was not known for being a fast receiver anyway, so I'm still a big fan of his overall game. Landry is another favorite of mine so would love to see either on the niners. I realize that speed is needed so hope they take at least two receivers--a Beckham/Cooks type and a Matthews/Landry type. There seem to be a few really fast guys predicted for the 3-4 rounds, so perhaps if Matthews falls to them...

Yeah, there are so many good WR options in this draft that it is hard to decide who I want. I want us to draft at least 2, and prepare for the departure of Boldin (and Crab?), but also add speed to the passing offense. I wanted Moncrief and Bryant, Matthews and Ellington (or Herron), Benjamin (if he falls to the 2nd) and Richardson/Archer/Reese, Beckham and Landry... ugh, too many good guys. Thing is, we can take a risk on a talented boom/bust guy, if we get a guy who can play early. Since Crab and Q can both do damage from the slot (Boldin was a slot MONSTER for the Ravens) we can get the best guy inside or out to help right away, and let the physical stud develop and learn. That makes a guy like Latimer or Bryant interesting. Exciting times to be a 49er fan!
  • buck
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 11,530
Earlier I posted a table with wide receivers and the combine targets they met.

One cannot assume that those numbers have any direct relationship with how well they play football.

Here is a table that shows the production of these same players over the last two years.

The table is ordered by targets met.




I intend to compare these results of these tables with results that these players achieve in the NFL nest year.
I think that comparison should be interesting.
Originally posted by VPofCarnage:
I don't see why anyone would trade up to draft a WR like Watkins or Evans in the 1st when they can get a guy who might be as good or better in the late 1st to mid 2nd round like Matthews or Moncrief.
Because one wants the best possible.