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Grade the 49ers 2010 Draft [3 years later]

Originally posted by ClassicNiner:
Whatever grade you give it, 2010 was a blockbuster year. Outstanding. Way better than average. Perhaps the best of the 32 teams that year. So give it a B if you like, but it was the best damn B you'll ever see!

in comparison to the league the score could be the highest of the year....meaning it was the best. Now would its final numerical score beat this years class.....dunno. But a class of 3 probowlers getting an A and a class of 4 probowlers getting an A doesn't tell the story. Having a numerical value showing how one is higher shows the better class in comparison IMO.
A+

Getting 3 all pro players in 1 draft is outstanding
  • AmpLee
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Originally posted by jreff22:
Originally posted by AmpLee:
Originally posted by jreff22:
Assign letter grades to each, run the numbers and what you get is what you get.

That's a silly way to grade a draft. So if we drafted Joe Montana, Jerry Rice, and Ronnie Lott in a draft we also drafted 7 guys that amounted to nothing (F-grades), you would "run the numbers" and average out 3 As and 7 Fs? (15 + 7 = 22 / 10 = 2.2) So if we went about it that way it would net us about a D average. Would you "run the numbers" and give that draft a D?

The thing you seem to be missing, is that you don't assign grades to each pick and then run the numbers. That's ridiculous. If that were the case, a team that drafted only one player and he was an 'A' player, then they would get an 'A' for that draft? Again, you are diluting a fairly easy process. How many contributors and to what degree they contribute is the most accurate and non-complicated way to grade a draft.
If we are evaluating the ENTIRE class, yes you get the grade for the class.

I'm not sure what kind of GPA you used in college but your numbers are way off, it would be a 1.2. While you hit 3 all stars, the vast majority of the class was a failure.

If a team only drafted 1 player and they hit an all star with it what kind of grade would you give them? If its 1 guy and he's a superstar the grade is an A. You cant say its a D because they only had 1 pick.

You judge the contributions of each player and give them a grade for it. Its the only fair way to look at a class across the board in a given year and compare it to other years.

If you say well for 3 years it was an A, it doesnt explain the situation. Saying one year it was a 3.04, than 3.36, then 3.13...we can see out of 3 years which was the strongest in the sea of "A's".

I'm going to briefly explain, again, why this is an incredibly flawed way to grade a draft.

Team A selects: 1 A player (they traded their entire draft to get the number 1 selection)

Team B selects: 7 A players
3 B players
1 C player

According to your grading system, team A got the higher grade. Not much else I can say on this matter, other than it's a poor way to evaluate drafts.
Depends on what you are grading. If you are comparing team to team in the same year you may have very different grades than historical grades over years. Grading over years could see many A grades in a given year if the talent pool is particularly strong. The best grade should go to the team doing well in a weak draft class. If a team can get five or six contributors and several all-pros in a year when the average team finds only two or three contributors...that would be amazing!

Here's a comparison of a few good teams in the 1981 draft



Just thought it was interesting to see what a great draft the 9ers had in 81! A+
  • Disp
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Originally posted by jreff22:
Originally posted by Disp:
Originally posted by jreff22:
That is a perfectly logical approach. The mathematics of doing this isn't hard, I dont get why people cant figure this out. If you come out with a 3.06 and its the highest grade than you did the best. Saying you got an A doesn't explain how you got to an A. Running through every pick, grading every pick, and coming up with a cumulative number is a logical way to answer this question. If this was done chances are we never see an A given out, only B+ and B would receive the highest mark because an A is borderline impossible. Could a B be the best in a land of C's.....very possible.

Here's why I have a problem with your methodology. Any team that has more high round picks is going to have a worse draft by your metric 99% of the time, because 6'th and 7'th rd. picks are generally much worse players. You're basically saying if the Niners had stopped after the 3'rd round and not picked any more players then it would be a better draft than how it went down because they didn't average "A" grades in round 5,6,7 like they did in the first 3. In your mind drafting Davis/Iupati/Mays/Bowman is a better draft than Davis/Iupati/Mays/Bowman/Williams/Dixon because Williams and Dixon aren't A grades.

Your grading system is the problem, not your actual player grades. It makes no sense to do it like that.
A GM has to work with what he has. We have actually done well going back through the years in the late rounds. I wouldn't give many 6th and 7th rounders an F....but Bruce Miller was an A. Morgan gets high marks, as does K Williams and Grant for instance. I would say an F would take a major blown pick....like Mays.

Each draft is different. I ask you to run through the last 3-4 drafts using this system and see what you get for us.

I wouldn't bother. The only thing that matters is how many impact players a team drafts. Coming away with 1 "A" rated Navarro Bowman and 6 crap players is a better draft than 2 "C+" rated Anthony Dixons and 5 crap players. But by your grading, the 2 Anthony Dixon draft is better. We'll just have to disagree.

You could go 16-0 with 11 Bowmans (A) and 11 Taylor Mays(F). You could go 0-16 with 22 Anthony Dixons(C+).
[ Edited by Disp on Apr 29, 2013 at 6:13 PM ]
Bowman is widely considered one of the best at his position, often coming second only to Willis. Iupati is a pro bowl guard with rare size and mobility. Davis was ranked by some as the top RT in the league last year. Dixon's ST play forced us to keep him on the roster despite trying to replace him, and Kyle Williams has contributed more than a lot of guys drafted near that spot.

If you can't give this draft an "A", than you need to re-evaluate how you rank these things.
A+

Keep in mind this is when the team was trying to be a 3 yards and a pile of dirt draft. Two road grader OL drafted by Singletary.
Originally posted by robniner:
Originally posted by jreff22:
Maybe this helps Amp...

1. Anthony Davis-A
1. Mike Iupati-A
2. Taylor Mays-F
3. Navorro Bowman-A
6. Anthony Dixon-C+
6. Nate Byham-C-
6. Kyle William-B
7. Phillip Adam-C-

Ted Ginn acquisition-B+

comes out to a 2.67........B-

That pretty much fits what I suspected.

Bowman - A+
Iupati - A+
Byham - D
Adams - C+

Looks better

Draft Class Grade = A
[ Edited by 49erMike on Apr 29, 2013 at 6:20 PM ]
This years draft is going to top the last 5. Big statements I know but we went light out this year. These guys are going to be starters and potential pro bowlers for the next 5 and I will put up anything at least 3 of the the first 5 we picked are big names within two seasons.
Originally posted by jreff22:
Originally posted by AmpLee:
Originally posted by jreff22:
Assign letter grades to each, run the numbers and what you get is what you get.

That's a silly way to grade a draft. So if we drafted Joe Montana, Jerry Rice, and Ronnie Lott in a draft we also drafted 7 guys that amounted to nothing (F-grades), you would "run the numbers" and average out 3 As and 7 Fs? (15 + 7 = 22 / 10 = 2.2) So if we went about it that way it would net us about a D average. Would you "run the numbers" and give that draft a D?

The thing you seem to be missing, is that you don't assign grades to each pick and then run the numbers. That's ridiculous. If that were the case, a team that drafted only one player and he was an 'A' player, then they would get an 'A' for that draft? Again, you are diluting a fairly easy process. How many contributors and to what degree they contribute is the most accurate and non-complicated way to grade a draft.
If we are evaluating the ENTIRE class, yes you get the grade for the class.

I'm not sure what kind of GPA you used in college but your numbers are way off, it would be a 1.2. While you hit 3 all stars, the vast majority of the class was a failure.

If a team only drafted 1 player and they hit an all star with it what kind of grade would you give them? If its 1 guy and he's a superstar the grade is an A. You cant say its a D because they only had 1 pick.

You judge the contributions of each player and give them a grade for it. Its the only fair way to look at a class across the board in a given year and compare it to other years.

If you say well for 3 years it was an A, it doesnt explain the situation. Saying one year it was a 3.04, than 3.36, then 3.13...we can see out of 3 years which was the strongest in the sea of "A's".
A few questions/thoughts:

In your opinion has there ever been an A draft? I can't imagine a draft in which every player pans out, especially to the degree Davis, Iupati, and Bowman have. Let alone getting some solid contributors in Dixon and Williams (just because they aren't superstars doesn't mean they weren't good picks).

Also, in grading a draft, you cannot use a basic GPA grading system. The consequences of failing a class is much greater than missing on a draft pick. Other classes can only compensate so much. One F ruins an entire quarter, while missing on one pick can be compensated for by drafting a super star like Aaron Rodgers.

I understand your thinking, but it is flawed. You have to grade drafts relative to drafts in the past. It is extremely rare to get three pro bowlers in one draft. I really think it has only happened a handful of times. The only way I could fathom giving this draft anything but an A is because Kyle Williams is directly responsible for making us miss the Superbowl in 2011, but even that is flawed because Davis, Iupati, and Bowman are directly responsible for getting us there.
  • AmpLee
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Edit: After thinking about this more this morning, I made an adjustment to my grading scale.

A more accurate grading system would account for quality and quantity. How about this:

'A' Player - A good to great player - 3 points
'B' Player - An average to good player - 2 points
'C' Player - A poor to average player - 1 point
'D' & 'F' - N/A

Now take the average amount of picks per team. 254 picks / 32 teams = 7.9 (we'll round up to 8)

Now it's time to find an average score of these 8 picks. This theoretically would change from draft to draft and would take some time to figure out, but we can just guess for ease of use...

Pick 1 - 3
Pick 2 - 2
Pick 3 - 2
Pick 4 - 1
Pick 5 - 1
Pick 6 - 1
Pick 7 - 0
Pick 8 - 0

This seems like an average to solid draft to me; 1 high caliber player, 2 solid starters, and 3 backup types. So if this is the average to solid (and since I'm not giving point to D players I'll skew the average to 80%), let's give it a middle of the road "B-" grade with 10 points scored. Now is the tricky part, what are our threshold between letter grades? Again, this is arbitrary right now and would take some statistical work to figure out if you wanted to get precise, but we can guestimate fairly well. Let's look at your ratings from our draft from 2010 (which I think you graded individually well)...

1. Anthony Davis-A (3)
1. Mike Iupati-A (3)
2. Taylor Mays-F(0)
3. Navorro Bowman-A (3)
6. Anthony Dixon-C+ (1)
6. Nate Byham-C- (1)
6. Kyle William-B (2)
7. Phillip Adam-C- (1)

That gives us a total of 14 points (4 over our average of 10 points). So where does this leave us? Without finding out more examples of drafts we must consider what is widely accepted as a solid A draft and was is widely considered an F draft? I think this is pretty well defined as an A draft by most people on this board. Ninerjohn is definitely not a homer, and I wouldn't consider most posters in this thread. I would do the grading scale like this...

6 and below - D/F
7 - C-
8 - C
9 - C +
10 - B -
11 - B
12 - B+
13 - A-
14 - A
15 and Above - A+

This would be an A minus draft, which seems fair to me.

Obviously, more work would need to be put in to find truly accurate numbers to base a grading system, but at least this way accounts for quanity and quality.
[ Edited by AmpLee on Apr 30, 2013 at 9:46 AM ]
Originally posted by thl408:
You draftniks should bring back your 2010 mocks and see how it stacks up. Now that would be interesting to see.

1 Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska
2 Eric Berry FS Tennessee
3 Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma
4 Trent Williams OT Oklahoma
5 Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma
6 Russell Okung OT Oklahoma State
7 Rolando McClain ILB Alabama
8 Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame
9 Bryan Bulaga OT Iowa
10 C.J. Spiller RB Clemson
11 Joe Haden CB Florida
12 Anthony Davis OT Rutgers
13 Derrick Morgan DE Georgia Tech
14 Earl Thomas FS Texas
15 Dan Williams DT Tennessee
16 Brandon Graham DE Michigan
17 Dez Bryant WR Oklahoma State
18 Charles Brown OT USC
19 Mike Iupati G Idaho
20 Bruce Campbell OT Maryland
21 Kyle Wilson CB Boise State
22 Jared Odrick DT Penn State
23 Jason Pierre-Paul DE South Florida
24 Patrick Robinson CB Florida
25 Brian Price DT UCLA
26 Jahvid Best RB Cal
27 Jerry Hughes OLB TCU
28 Maurkice Pouncey C Florida
29 Devin McCourty CB Rutgers
30 Corey Wootton DE Northwestern
31 Eric Norwood OLB South Carolina
32 Rodger Saffold OT Indiana
Seriously, its a joke that anyone would not consider the 2010 draft an A grade. Personally, I think Jreff just likes attention because no one with any football knowledge would call this a B- draft.
Davis, Iupati and Bow in 1 draft?

Call in Emma stone cuz this is an Easy A.
I actually liked the Taylor Mays choice at the time, and honestly I loved the Navarro Bowman choice too even tho not many knew who he was, i remember him at Penn St and his teammate Sean Lee (Now a Cowgirl) was getting all the accolades but Bowman was faster, hit harder and made more plays. So I missed on Taylor Mays and I hit on Bowman that year with my judgement, Overall since we did hit in the 1st round and Bowman and Dixon is a nice Special teamer and even Kyle Williams has produced a little as a 6th rounder sans that Giants game, My 2010 Grade is a B+