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Grade the 49ers 2010 Draft [3 years later]

Originally posted by zugschef:
can anybody find MadDog49er's 2010 draft review?

Davis- "A-" grade. Best available OT in the draft when the team was on the board. Has the highest upside of any OT in the draft. I think he's a huge upgrade, and will easily start from Day One. Completely engulfs rushers, and looks smooth in the process. The only downgrade for me was losing the 4th rounder in the trade up, but I can understand the paranoia the team had about being leapfrogged.

Iupati- "A" grade. One of the best OG prospects in the last decade. He should easily bench Baas at LG. Just like Davis, completely engulfs defenders. Still learning the game, and will only get a ton better. Think about how good he is already, with Idaho coaching, weight room facilities, strength coaches, etc.

Mays- "D" grade. Good value spot for a team looking for a safety who is not going to cover anyone. That is not us.

Think about his athleticism, speed, jumping ability. Off the charts. Why was he bypassed by all of these teams in the first round, and more than half of the second round? And, nobody lower than 49 wanted to move up to secure his services. He is simply not a coverage safety. Mays was exposed badly in Senior Bowl practices as someone who is incredibly stiff and cannot change directions. Many scouts believed, and stated, that he will need to transition to OLB in the NFL. The team needed a centerfielder who can cover a lot of ground, and put Goldson into the SS role. Now, we have two guys with coverage limitations. Not a smart move. Many other better coverage safeties on the board at the time. I could not have blamed the team if they sacrificed both the second and third rounder to jump up and grab Nate Allen, some who clearly has the ability to patrol the back end of the secondary, cover speedy receivers in a big play league, and make plays.

Bowman- "D-" grade- I have no idea what the Niners are thinking here. I'm not sure they do as well. Bowman is strictly a 4-3 defender in the NFL. He cannot rush the passer effectively, and is not the best at taking on blockers. To blow a third rounder (which is a common issue with the team the past few years) on a backup to Willis is not a good investment. In the first presser, Singletary did not seem to know where they would play him as well. Welcome to the "We Don't Know where they are going to Play" club of Balmer, R. Smith, and others.

Ginn- "A" grade in trade. Ginn has to be included in the draft, since this is the value we receive for our fifth rounder. Ginn's best football is in front of him. He instantly eliminates our second most glaring need this offseason, and becomes our first deep threat at WR in a LONG time. I believe he assumes the number three WR role, and could even push Morgan (depending on Morgan's development).

Dixon- "A-" grade- The Niners did not appear to have any confidence in Coffee last year, so they better pick up someone they can hand the rock to when Gore is on the bench, or injured. Dixon was second in the SEC in rushing (behind Ingram), with a brutal OL in front of him. Wes Bunting said this about Dixon, "Becomes a starter in his rookie season...Becomes a solid NFL player with no real weakness". Now, I'm not going to go as far as Bunting, but this is a guy really liked in NFL scouting circles.

Byham- "B-" grade- I know this is a head scratcher for many fans, but this team did not execute well on third and short last year. Byham is a stud blocker, better than Bajema and better than Bear. So, while he is not going to catch more than 5 balls this season, he will probably make this team with ease, and have a chance to play on Sunday in situational roles.

Kyle Williams- "A-" grade- The team needs an insurance policy for Ginn, who has had some health problems in the past. So, why not select another lightning rod who can run like the wind. Williams has a terrific shot at making the team as the team's fifth receiver, and a guy who can play in the slot in 4 WR sets. He needs to work on route running (few rookies don't have issues). A guy to stretch the field.

Philip Adams- "D" grade- Better CB's were on the board, including McClain (the Niners plucked Patrick Stoudamire off the priority free agent market), but the team could use a developmental CB on the practice squad, so I understand the positional selection. Might have to move Adams to FS down the road, but I honestly don't give the kid much of a chance to make the team.

A more interesting option would have been to select one of the small school 3-4 DE's on the board (Lissemore or Howard), a big school 3-4 DE who I think is going to make an NFL roster in Doug Worthington, or go complete off the chart and select Jameson Konz, a freak athlete the Seahawks selected later, who might be able to play at numerous positions on the field.

That is the short answer to the best and worst picks. I give the Niners a final grade of 82.5% in the B/B- range.

Cheers.

P.S. With the solid FA pickups, I'd move the grade to 84%. One more note of correction for MM and MB: Both have reported that Dixon led the SEC in rushing. I think both probably received an inaccurate wire statement. The leading rusher in the SEC last year was Mark Ingram.
  • Disp
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The Taylor Mays pick sucked, but who cares? 3 years later it doesn't matter whether it was a 7th round pick or a 1st rounder. If we drafted 3 pro bowl players in the 7th round how is that any different than drafting pro bowlers in the 1'st, 2'nd and 3'rd, other than being unusual? All that matters is the end result we received from the draft, and we got significant players with Bowman/Iupati/Davis.
Originally posted by AmpLee:
Originally posted by jreff22:
Originally posted by AmpLee:
Originally posted by jreff22:
When you draft that high you run a better chance of hitting better talent. Davis and Iupati are fantastic players but they should be when drafting high, its expected. Bowman is the one pick that wasn't expected to be that player and has been.

What happens outside the first round is what makes or breaks a draft IMO. Hitting on first round talent but missing on later guys creates a void at depth which leads to future problems. Bowman saved the follow up to a certain extent but the rest of the picks have been or will be replaced.

The Mays pick was such a waste and was a Sing pick, we all know that. Had that pick turned into somebody worth a damn this draft would be an A. Look at it like this, Gronk was taken only a few spots ahead of Mays....imagine what would've happened if we moved up to get him.

Grading a draft is about analyzing the talent that the team accumulated with their draft picks, regardless of draft position. Analyzing a draft in hindsight by saying we could have drafted this guy, or this guy instead of this guy is ridiculous. 3 guys arguably the best in the world at their positions is a heck of a draft.
The only way to judge the draft is by hindsight. You have to go back, look who was taken around your pick, and ask was yours the best?

Bowman is a stellar player and wouldn't replace him with anybody except Willis. If we had Williams and Pouncey, you would be saying the same about them like you are Davis and Iupati. They are very good players but aren't the only top dogs in their positions.

There's a difference about judging the draft by hindsight and by inserting what-ifs. You are diluting how to rate a draft in retrospect. It's a simple process. Look at players selected; assign a rating based on how good the players have performed. I would also give the draft an A if it we had had selected Williams, Pouncey, and Bowman, but that retards the relatively simple grading process by introducing what-ifs.

I dont think it does. People for years have always talked about what if we drafted Rodgers. During the draft (I think it was Oakland but not sure) they had a graphic of all their picks and the kids taken pretty much right afterwards that have become stars. The best way to see the value you got is to look at what was taken around you. We dont have access to the teams board so we have to look at how the draft transpired and what we could have had...the insertion of the what if is a tool to judge by.

The Mays pick was worth 410 points if you go by the draft chart. That's 2 3rd round picks or 4 4th round picks give or take placement. By getting a 7th for Mays, using the chat, and looking at the value of the highest 7th round pick....it equals out to 28 7th rounders.

Throwing away the value of that pick and not getting anything contribution from the player is why this draft gets a lower mark. I expect first round talent to play like first round talent so while I would grade Iupati and Davis as an A, it was expected. Bowman was a surprise and his body of work is the most impressive out of all the kids taken. But losing the value from the Mays pick and the loss of a good player or traded picks downgrades to grade. While Williams is the only real contributor of the late picks, all 4 have either been replaced or are about to be. Many say the late picks are throw away, I strongly disagree and the real work and value of a GM shows is those picks. Its easy to pick a top 10 talent, finding the latent late is where the scouting and genius really shows.

The recent draft was a home-run for the most part and I give Baalke full credit. But the 2010 was good but not fantastic...some of that blame goes to Sing IMO, its not a Trent only thing.
Jreff I think you are showing a real lack of league awareness with your opinion of the 2010 draft. Missing on 2nd round picks is extremely common. Getting three players in a draft the caliber of Davis, lupati and Bowman on the other hand is rare and equals a extremely suscssful draft by any measurement.
@ LA9erFan
thanks!
If you were to tell me that between your 2nd & 3rd Rounders, one would be a complete bust and the other would be one of the Top 5-10 players at his position within 3 years, I'd say that's a HUGE net positive. Mays was an obvious whiff, but the rest of the draft more than makes up for it. Easy A.
Originally posted by zugschef:
@ LA9erFan
thanks!

No problem.
Originally posted by natrone06:
Jreff I think you are showing a real lack of league awareness with your opinion of the 2010 draft. Missing on 2nd round picks is extremely common. Getting three players in a draft the caliber of Davis, lupati and Bowman on the other hand is rare and equals a extremely suscssful draft by any measurement.

we got nothing from Mays, a miss would be a player who cant start but can do something......he did NOTHING for us. Missing on 2nd rounders isn't common, if it was people would trade the picks away.
Maybe this helps Amp...

1. Anthony Davis-A
1. Mike Iupati-A
2. Taylor Mays-F
3. Navorro Bowman-A
6. Anthony Dixon-C+
6. Nate Byham-C-
6. Kyle William-B
7. Phillip Adam-C-

Ted Ginn acquisition-B+

comes out to a 2.67........B-
Originally posted by jreff22:
Originally posted by natrone06:
Jreff I think you are showing a real lack of league awareness with your opinion of the 2010 draft. Missing on 2nd round picks is extremely common. Getting three players in a draft the caliber of Davis, lupati and Bowman on the other hand is rare and equals a extremely suscssful draft by any measurement.

we got nothing from Mays, a miss would be a player who cant start but can do something......he did NOTHING for us. Missing on 2nd rounders isn't common, if it was people would trade the picks away.

You're even wrong about that. We used the 7th rounder we got for Mays to trade for Colt McCoy who could easily be Kap's backup this year. Remains to be seen of course exactly what we get out of McCoy, but getting a veteran backup is something.

You are right that missing on 2nd rounders isn't common, but neither is hitting on 4 straight draft picks. One of those 4 was bound to miss...it just happened to be the one that Singletary was pounding the table for, and that shouldn't be surprising. But the 3 HRs they hit more than makes up for the one strikeout they had.
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Originally posted by jreff22:
Originally posted by natrone06:
Jreff I think you are showing a real lack of league awareness with your opinion of the 2010 draft. Missing on 2nd round picks is extremely common. Getting three players in a draft the caliber of Davis, lupati and Bowman on the other hand is rare and equals a extremely suscssful draft by any measurement.

we got nothing from Mays, a miss would be a player who cant start but can do something......he did NOTHING for us. Missing on 2nd rounders isn't common, if it was people would trade the picks away.

You're even wrong about that. We used the 7th rounder we got for Mays to trade for Colt McCoy who could easily be Kap's backup this year. Remains to be seen of course exactly what we get out of McCoy, but getting a veteran backup is something.

You are right that missing on 2nd rounders isn't common, but neither is hitting on 4 straight draft picks. One of those 4 was bound to miss...it just happened to be the one that Singletary was pounding the table for, and that shouldn't be surprising. But the 3 HRs they hit more than makes up for the one strikeout they had.
McCoy's value has yet to be seen but I watch a lot of Browns football and I assume at this point he is a stop gap until Jim finds his next guy, who will be a long term backup.
  • Disp
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Originally posted by jreff22:
Maybe this helps Amp...

1. Anthony Davis-A
1. Mike Iupati-A
2. Taylor Mays-F
3. Navorro Bowman-A
6. Anthony Dixon-C+
6. Nate Byham-C-
6. Kyle William-B
7. Phillip Adam-C-

Ted Ginn acquisition-B+

comes out to a 2.67........B-

Except it doesn't work like that. What you're essentially saying is missing on Taylor Mays hurts the team as much as Bowman helps the team, so their net value is 0, which is a ridiculous position to take. The value of the 3 players outweighs anything else done. Think of it like this; if we only had 3 draft picks and got the big 3, it would've been a good draft. Drafting the other players didn't "hurt" the team at all, it just didn't necessarily help us. Those players were just dropped or retained as depth.
since none of you are giving a full grade on each player I give you this....

http://gpacalculator.net/college-gpa-calculator/

run each player and assign a grade and tell us what you get
Originally posted by Disp:
Originally posted by jreff22:
Maybe this helps Amp...

1. Anthony Davis-A
1. Mike Iupati-A
2. Taylor Mays-F
3. Navorro Bowman-A
6. Anthony Dixon-C+
6. Nate Byham-C-
6. Kyle William-B
7. Phillip Adam-C-

Ted Ginn acquisition-B+

comes out to a 2.67........B-

Except it doesn't work like that. What you're essentially saying is missing on Taylor Mays hurts the team as much as Bowman helps the team, so their net value is 0, which is a ridiculous position to take. The value of the 3 players outweighs anything else done. Think of it like this; if we only had 3 draft picks and got the big 3, it would've been a good draft. Drafting the other players didn't "hurt" the team at all, it just didn't necessarily help us. Those players were just dropped or retained as depth.

The question was to grade the 2010 draft, not grade 3 players. I assigned a grade to each player and got the overall value from the draft. Even if I assign a higher value to the first round it still comes out to a B- overall.
  • Disp
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The point is those 3 players are so good that the rest of the draft doesn't matter. The players who don't make the team are completely irrelevant, and all that matters is how much better the draft makes us. In 2011 we could have just drafted Kaepernick, and right now it would be a great draft because of his value to the team. He's not an "A", he's a "AAA". Saying we had a worse draft just because some players didn't pan out is stupid when the net impact of the players who DID pan out is so dramatic.
[ Edited by Disp on Apr 29, 2013 at 3:45 PM ]