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MadDog's 2013 NFL Draft Review

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Excellent points you make, Lieut.

MD's entitled to his opinion though, and can give out whatever grades he wants.

Fact is that Baalke has access to coaches film, and has had the time to study quite a bit of it, while MD has stated that he is limited to utube and to whatever video clips might be available on the interwebs, plus he has to study them on his free time, as a hobby. So ultimately Baalke's evaluation of the players in the draft is based on much more information, and is likely to be more accurate and more complete.

Two years ago, for example, MD gave the Niners a "C-" for drafting Aldon Smith, Kaepernick, Culliver, Hunter, Kilgore, and Miller. He was highly critical not only of the Aldon Smith selection, but also of the second round selection of some QB named Kaepernick. Baalke should have taken a QB named Jackson much later, in the 6th or 7th round, and would have gotten equal value, according to MD back then.

Based on that history, it seems wiser to trust Baalke's evaluation of talent over MD's.

Kudos to MD, however, for raising the issues he raises and for giving us all an opportunity to better understand what Baalke does in the draft.

MD's "draft review" every year always makes for an interesting read and challenges us all to think critically about the Niner's draft selections.

Nothing wrong with that. IMHO.

A couple notes: If a fan watches a lot of games, and concentrates and isolates a certain player, which I do, it allows for a pretty decent attempt at grading.

As for the 2011 class, I didn't think the Niners selections were going to pan out the way it did. Smith was the highest remaining OLB on my board, but I saw much better value in Watt. I think many would agree with me in a draft re-do that they would select Watt. As stated before, to much applause, I would regrade it differently, as I do for virtually every other draft (ask 99% of the media, and Mel, Mike M, Todd McShay, etc. what they thought about Seattle's draft last year). People look back and think, "I'd screwed this one up". I have no problem looking back and saying that I missed on an analysis.

At the same time, I think I have fared pretty well with my selections over the year (Iupati, Dez Bryant, Morgan Burnett in 2010) Compare my draft with Baalke's last year, and so far, I've got him smoked. Was there anyone the Niners' selected that matched my pick of Vick Ballard in the late rounds? So, you win some, you lose some. In the end, as stated before, it is hitting more often than others that is the goal.

In the end, it is all fun and games. When it is no longer fun, it is time to move on.
I don't care how many games you watch on TV as a fan, or how often you rewatch, TV coverage is far different from a coaches tape--especially in regard to the secondary. Many times TV coverage doesn't even include the secondary, and you have to rely on the color commentator to tell you if its zone or man to man, etc.

A coaches tape can allow you to focus in on a particular player in the secondary play after play, for an entire game. Big, big difference.
Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
MD.. someone raised a good question earlier. How would your draft grade differ if the Niners had made NO trades and selected Tank with pick 31 and then Reid at 34?

You must have missed the question so will ask again.. How would you rate the draft if the picks went:

31 Tank
34 Reid
61 McDonald
93 Lemonier
128 Patton
131 Lattimore

In this case, would they not have gotten great value at 31, 128, and 131 and gotten fair market value at 34 61 and 93? So, would your grade change without moving up for Reid and taking your guy Carradine?
  • Amir
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 25,858
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by jacklegniner:
MadDog,

On the Reid pick. In 3 years, when they do the re-draft, do you think Reid will be one of the top 18 players from this draft?

No. I think he will not be considered first round value.

YESSSSSSSSSS

That means he's gonna be the best safety of all time. OF ALL TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
MD.. someone raised a good question earlier. How would your draft grade differ if the Niners had made NO trades and selected Tank with pick 31 and then Reid at 34?

You must have missed the question so will ask again.. How would you rate the draft if the picks went:

31 Tank
34 Reid
61 McDonald
93 Lemonier
128 Patton
131 Lattimore

In this case, would they not have gotten great value at 31, 128, and 131 and gotten fair market value at 34 61 and 93? So, would your grade change without moving up for Reid and taking your guy Carradine?

I doubt Reid would have been available.
sorry MadDog but I trust Baalke's judgement alot more than yours bro. Reid will be a stud and Cinn was a strong possibility of them taking him 3 picks later. But i can understand your reasoning.
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
MD.. someone raised a good question earlier. How would your draft grade differ if the Niners had made NO trades and selected Tank with pick 31 and then Reid at 34?

You must have missed the question so will ask again.. How would you rate the draft if the picks went:

31 Tank
34 Reid
61 McDonald
93 Lemonier
128 Patton
131 Lattimore

In this case, would they not have gotten great value at 31, 128, and 131 and gotten fair market value at 34 61 and 93? So, would your grade change without moving up for Reid and taking your guy Carradine?

I doubt Reid would have been available.

I doubt it too. Cincy and the Giants evidently wanted him big time. Just wanted to see if this changed MD's opinion since Reid would not be a first rd pick then.
Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
MD.. someone raised a good question earlier. How would your draft grade differ if the Niners had made NO trades and selected Tank with pick 31 and then Reid at 34?

You must have missed the question so will ask again.. How would you rate the draft if the picks went:

31 Tank
34 Reid
61 McDonald
93 Lemonier
128 Patton
131 Lattimore

In this case, would they not have gotten great value at 31, 128, and 131 and gotten fair market value at 34 61 and 93? So, would your grade change without moving up for Reid and taking your guy Carradine?


if you're referring to my question, I wanted to leave the trade in, so I posited that they traded the 34 and the same 3rd for a 22nd, then took Carradine @ 22, followed by Reid at 40.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by fryet:
Thinks MD for your draft analysis. I was waiting for it. Personally, I think it is the best analysis that we can get as a 49er fan (other paid analysts may know about the draft in general, but they don't know the 49ers as well).

I don't see why MD gets such strong opinions on this board. I posted my draft analysis as well,as did many others. I didn't see anyone tell me that I don't know what I am talking about (which would be accurate). MD is just posting his opinion like everyone else.

Thanks for the kind thoughts. Do you think people would be arguing that I don't know what I am talking about if I gave the team an A grade? The backlash is directly related to the grade. I call it like I see it. I can't sugar coat decisions I think are shaky just because I like the team.

I wrote a post in "NinerTalk" (yeah, I know...) where I stated a few holes the team still has (1) secondary, (2) speed on offense, (3) punt return, (4) OT depth. I got chewed out. People asked me how I could say we don't have speed on offense when Vance McDonald was the fastest TE in the class and I can't even count how many people brought up Lockette and AJJ. The 2 guys that have so far combined for 0/0/0 (assign whatever statistic you want to those number... except drops, then you'll have to change one of them to a 1). These are the same people that wanted Austin because we needed speed on offense just 2 days prior! But that's sports fans.

I really appreciate the work that you do, and enjoy reading your stuff. One point about comparing your drafts to Baalke's. You have to consider 2 things:

  1. When making decisions, Baalke doesn't have the luxury of knowing if a player will or won't be there later. So he can't decide if Philip Thomas (who I did not like at all) will be available in the 3rd and is better value than Reid at 18. Looking back, we completely have that luxury. So there's a bias.
  2. Baalke has to "please the coaches" to some degree. I'm guessing the Reid pick was more of a Harbaugh decision than a Baalke one. I'm not saying they disagreed on it -- i have no way of knowing that -- but if they did, that's another consideration. He can't act in isolation. In the long run, consensus wins out I believe, but for individual picks this could have a negative effect. Then again, Kaep is likely here due to Harbaugh as well and Baalke gets his fair share of praise for it.

Keep up the great work. Look forward to reading more of your stuff, and also trying to get more and more involved myself.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by SFL49ER:
The red flag was probably immaturity--if I had to guess

Could be a medical that looks worse to a team. Back problems can cause players to fall farther and faster than knees. A couple years ago, Charles Brown, an Ol who plays for the Saints, was considered a late first, early second rounder, but fell to the fourth. Later on, it was discovered he had a bad back, so teams simply removed him from their boards. it happen.

At the same time, any time a person has YOLO tattooed on their neck, it shows a level of immaturity. This may have been one element in the slide.

Major medical with him according to Russ Lande. The guy is out there with his evaluations sometimes, but I trust his insider info.
I think it's safe to say maddog doesn't like trading up
Originally posted by mutant-man49:
I think it's safe to say maddog doesn't like trading up

Yeah I'm a little sick of people criticizing the McDonald and Lemonier trade-ups. "Those guys woulda been there five slots later." Oh really? Says you?
Originally posted by Amir:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by jacklegniner:
MadDog,

On the Reid pick. In 3 years, when they do the re-draft, do you think Reid will be one of the top 18 players from this draft?

No. I think he will not be considered first round value.

YESSSSSSSSSS

That means he's gonna be the best safety of all time. OF ALL TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Great Post
Originally posted by MSteitz468:
Originally posted by Amir:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by jacklegniner:
MadDog,

On the Reid pick. In 3 years, when they do the re-draft, do you think Reid will be one of the top 18 players from this draft?

No. I think he will not be considered first round value.

YESSSSSSSSSS

That means he's gonna be the best safety of all time. OF ALL TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Great Post

I hate the posts in this thread that serve literally no purpose other than to be a dick to MadDog.
I ask MD again for the 3rd time..........how are you ripping Reid or even analyzing any secondary when you don't have coaches tape.

You can analyze DL/OL/LB/RB/QB...even wr just based on their pure athletic ability on tape

BUT THERE IS NO WAY YOU CAN MAKE ANY ANALYSIS OF ANY PLAYER IN THE SECONDARY WITHOUT COACHES TAPE
Originally posted by iLL49er:
I ask MD again for the 3rd time..........how are you ripping Reid or even analyzing any secondary when you don't have coaches tape.

You can analyze DL/OL/LB/RB/QB...even wr just based on their pure athletic ability on tape

BUT THERE IS NO WAY YOU CAN MAKE ANY ANALYSIS OF ANY PLAYER IN THE SECONDARY WITHOUT COACHES TAPE

Holy cow ease up on the guy. Most of us have spent the last couple months reading dozens of blogs and writers of draftniks offering us their opinions based on the resources available to them. MD is no different.