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MadDog's 2013 NFL Draft Review

Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by nw9erfan:

All of that stated, I do have a big problem with this draft in that a pretty glaring need has still gone unmet...a very quick CB that can cover the slot receivers that have suddenly sprung up all over the place...especially in the NFC West! Maybe the Niners feel like they can just hit the crap out of those slot guys at the LOS and just knock them off their routes with all the big corners they have now. Not sure that will be an effective strategy all of the time though. I'm hoping that T Brown can fill that role and that they move Rogers, who proved he couldn't hang with the slot guys, back out on the edge where he was so effective in 2011.

This and a true 2-gap NT who can collapse the step-up lane (pocket) as we've had consistent and good to great edge rushing for the past two years. That said, it appears we'll be going with many rotations this year along the DL and with it, many many many more 4-man fronts with additional pass rushers up at the LOS with Tank and Lemonier, Dorsey and an array of combinations. Remember, both Aldon and Brooks can line up on the LOS...Brooks even lines up inside as a DT at times as well (rushes and drops back). So Fangio now has a TON of different personnel packages he can run from a 4-man line that is hell bent on QB pressures under 3 seconds and a ton of athleticism to contain mobile QB's such as Wilson. We drafted our own Wilson-like QB for this defense to practice against. We'll be ready for Seattle!

Now, with all of THIS said, with an extra pass rusher in the front 7, that still leaves our secondary down 1 man. My guesstimate based on Baalke's targets in FA, his own words and who we drafted in the secondary, no doubt he is going more Seattle-like here. He wants much bigger, taller, more physical, aggressive secondary play and play up at the LOS. Keeping with this theme he drafts FS Eric Reid (6'2" 212 4.49 40, 40.5" VL 29 WS) and CB Marcus Cooper (6'2" 192) and we picked up Nnamdi Asomugha (6'2" 210). Culliver is probably the most physical CB we have on the roster. And I "still" think we bring in Charles Woodson (6'1" 202).

I think Fangio/Baalke want to get more physical up at the LOS and press the $^&%^ out of WR's. With this philosophy, you could end up with a starting unit of:

Asomugha (6'2" 210) (LCB) - Woodson (6'1" 202) (FS) - Reid (6'2" 212) (SS) - Culliver (6'0" 200) (RCB)

And you can add a Brown/Rogers epic battle for the slot role which I think Brown would win, hands-down.
I agree with you, NC, the Niners want to change up the secondary to add more pressure at CB, which is why they added to the DL and added a FS with great range. I don't think the personnel at CB was the problem at the end of last season, it seems like the injuries to Justin and Aldon Smith limited the pressure they could put on the QB, and that exposed Goldson as a less than adequate guy in support of the CB coverage.

I am also with you on the NT. I've been hopeing for a NT for the past 3 drafts. The first year I understood they simply moved Soap back to NT. Last year they picked up Ian Williams as an UDFA--which says that they don't value the position all that highly, don't think its all that necessary. This season they take Dial as a "versatile" DL who "could" play NT at 6'5" and 320, but can also play DE or DT.

Finally, you're spot on about the QB they added--someone who can imitate the Seattle Smurf in practice, so the OLBs won't be jumping in the air when he pump fakes! Great point.

Baalke just "gets it" IMHO. I love that guy!!!

We said this secondary is going to look very different this year even before Goldson left...so far, that is coming true. I can't wait to see how it finally shakes out!

As to the NT point, here is what I posted in another thread:

1. I think with the addition of Tank (6'4" 276) to spell Aldon (OLB/RDE at the LOS) and Justin inside (RDT) and Lemonier (6'4" 255) for Brooks and Quinton Dial (6'6" 318) for McDonald along with Doresy and the upswing of Ian Williams (for Sopoaga and RJF), it's safe to say, Baalke gets that we need to run a MUCH heavier rotation next year with a small switch in philosophy. I expect many many more 4-man fronts with an array of pass rush options, esp. inside. BUT, don't forget our base 3-man DL as well. On paper, it appears Doresy and Williams can handle this role adequately and both have upside esp. against a pass-heavy offense (run stuffers).

That said, don't forget NT Lamar Divens (6'4" 340) either. He's a guy we can plug in there against teams that are power-running focused; something we struggled with in the past in our base 3-man DL. And we'll be playing a lot of those teams this year as well. But clearly, the shift is to a heavy rotation on the DL, 4-man fronts and OLB's with an added focus on pass rush. Lemonier looks like a clone of Ahmad Brooks and both even wear #55. LOL
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by nw9erfan:

All of that stated, I do have a big problem with this draft in that a pretty glaring need has still gone unmet...a very quick CB that can cover the slot receivers that have suddenly sprung up all over the place...especially in the NFC West! Maybe the Niners feel like they can just hit the crap out of those slot guys at the LOS and just knock them off their routes with all the big corners they have now. Not sure that will be an effective strategy all of the time though. I'm hoping that T Brown can fill that role and that they move Rogers, who proved he couldn't hang with the slot guys, back out on the edge where he was so effective in 2011.

This and a true 2-gap NT who can collapse the step-up lane (pocket) as we've had consistent and good to great edge rushing for the past two years. That said, it appears we'll be going with many rotations this year along the DL and with it, many many many more 4-man fronts with additional pass rushers up at the LOS with Tank and Lemonier, Dorsey and an array of combinations. Remember, both Aldon and Brooks can line up on the LOS...Brooks even lines up inside as a DT at times as well (rushes and drops back). So Fangio now has a TON of different personnel packages he can run from a 4-man line that is hell bent on QB pressures under 3 seconds and a ton of athleticism to contain mobile QB's such as Wilson. We drafted our own Wilson-like QB for this defense to practice against. We'll be ready for Seattle!

Now, with all of THIS said, with an extra pass rusher in the front 7, that still leaves our secondary down 1 man. My guesstimate based on Baalke's targets in FA, his own words and who we drafted in the secondary, no doubt he is going more Seattle-like here. He wants much bigger, taller, more physical, aggressive secondary play and play up at the LOS. Keeping with this theme he drafts FS Eric Reid (6'2" 212 4.49 40, 40.5" VL 29 WS) and CB Marcus Cooper (6'2" 192) and we picked up Nnamdi Asomugha (6'2" 210). Culliver is probably the most physical CB we have on the roster. And I "still" think we bring in Charles Woodson (6'1" 202).

I think Fangio/Baalke want to get more physical up at the LOS and press the $^&%^ out of WR's. With this philosophy, you could end up with a starting unit of:

Asomugha (6'2" 210) (LCB) - Woodson (6'1" 202) (FS) - Reid (6'2" 212) (SS) - Culliver (6'0" 200) (RCB)

And you can add a Brown/Rogers epic battle for the slot role which I think Brown would win, hands-down.

I don't think Brown works in the slot b/c he doesn't turn his hips quickly to run with wr's That's why they keep him on the outside. Same with Culliver. rogers is best suited for it I just don't think he has the speed left in the tank. Covering the slot is gonna be a issue just like it was last year if the pass rush isn't hitting home. Teams might want to get big corners like Seattle the problem is they aren't good like Seattle corners.
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
If the team if moving up to 18, get a player than matches the value. The pick should have been Tyler Eifert, who is going to be a stud in the NFL. Maybe the Bengals should send a Thank You card to the Niners for Christmas. The Niners obviously saw need at TE, as they selected McDonald 37 picks later. They should have picked up the best player on the board at that point, Eifert.

Here's the fallacy in your reasoning. The bolded is absolutely correct. You and the 49ers agree: TE was a need. And yet they still took Reid over Eifert at 18! That should tell you all you need to know, which is this: You believe Eifert was a better prospect and therefore BPA at that point. The 49ers believe Reid was a better prospect and therefore BPA at that point.

This isn't a disagreement over strategy or philosophy; it's a simply disagreement in evaluation. Now here's hoping the 49ers were more correct than you this time around, Reid becomes a better safety than Eifert does a tight end.
Excellent points you make, Lieut.

MD's entitled to his opinion though, and can give out whatever grades he wants.

Fact is that Baalke has access to coaches film, and has had the time to study quite a bit of it, while MD has stated that he is limited to utube and to whatever video clips might be available on the interwebs, plus he has to study them on his free time, as a hobby. So ultimately Baalke's evaluation of the players in the draft is based on much more information, and is likely to be more accurate and more complete.

Two years ago, for example, MD gave the Niners a "C-" for drafting Aldon Smith, Kaepernick, Culliver, Hunter, Kilgore, and Miller. He was highly critical not only of the Aldon Smith selection, but also of the second round selection of some QB named Kaepernick. Baalke should have taken a QB named Jackson much later, in the 6th or 7th round, and would have gotten equal value, according to MD back then.

Based on that history, it seems wiser to trust Baalke's evaluation of talent over MD's.

Kudos to MD, however, for raising the issues he raises and for giving us all an opportunity to better understand what Baalke does in the draft.

MD's "draft review" every year always makes for an interesting read and challenges us all to think critically about the Niner's draft selections.

Nothing wrong with that. IMHO.
[ Edited by oldninerdude on Apr 29, 2013 at 9:56 AM ]
Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
The Niners draft through 4 rounds was an A.. They hit on major needs, got great value with Tank, Patton, and Lattimore, and picked up a 3rd rounder in a strong 2014 draft. Seriously, its almost impossible to see how this would grade anything lower. Now, I wasnt crazy about the draft from the 5th round down but honestly I dont know the guys who were selected there so its impossible for me to truly judge these picks. I will simply have to trust guys who know MORE than anyone in here.

Would I have liked a speedy corner? Sure. But, I think the need for a corner is much greater in the 2014 draft and will be addressed.

I respect the work MD does but I just think its impossible for him to give the Niners a truly high grade if they pick guys that dont match his feelings. I just wonder how many times he actually watched any of the Niners picks in the last 3 rounds.

Agreed with John. Although Reid may have been a reach at 18, it looks as if other teams did not feel that way and the Niners knew they had to jump up to take him. Tank is a great value pick. Vance McDonald, one of my favorite prospects in this draft, is extremely underrated. Unlike what MadDog said, I feel that McDonald has very good hands and could be all over the field for us due to his versatility.

Sure, we didn't grab any corners early, but what we did was added more to the front 7 with guys to rush the passer. That, alone, will help out our pass coverage.
Originally posted by lamontb:
I don't think Brown works in the slot b/c he doesn't turn his hips quickly to run with wr's That's why they keep him on the outside. Same with Culliver. rogers is best suited for it I just don't think he has the speed left in the tank. Covering the slot is gonna be a issue just like it was last year if the pass rush isn't hitting home. Teams might want to get big corners like Seattle the problem is they aren't good like Seattle corners.

You may be right here about Brown/Rogers. I agree about Rogers...his issue seems more to do with his mindset and motivation. Ever notice how he plays harder once he gets burned and the spot light is on him?

Well, let's be honest here...Seattle CB's and S's are allowed to do whatever they want w/o recourse, unless they are playing IN Washington. With the aforementioned lineup and the shift to bigger, more physical CB's, we may be able to match up like this esp. if we establish that THAT is who we are now...refs identify with that and tend to give more leeway. Also, with more 4-man DL and rotation and an even greater emphasis on pass rush front the front 7, playing tighter up at the LOS and jamming the $%^& out of WR's means they don't have to cover very long and results in more PD's, INT's and disrupting of routes. But we'll need great range by our S's for over-the-top help just in case a WR breaks through the press and gets wide open. Insert Reid.
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
I can't see how taking Eifert would of worked. We have to look financially at this. We aren't gonna pay 2 TEs top dollar in 4 years, because both would be young and still in prime. Plus what does it say to Vernon, if we draft a TE 18?

I always stress, draft for need, but not always the same position under the new CBA, that option, and paying top 10 and top 20 kills you. It makes more sense to draft a WR then a TE, since most teams carry between 5 and 6 WRs each year.

Money comes into this big time, and needs, Reid was a higher need then a 2nd TE.
AB looking at dollars and cents. No surprise. Davis is entering his 8th year in 2013, and I am not sure there is another big payday out there for him. He'll be 32 when he hits free agency in 2016. Have to see how his body holds up over the next three years.

As for selecting Eifert, I was playing devil's advocate with the 18th pick. I didn't want the trade up, but if you are making that move, pick the best guy. NE has shown that they can be a serious headache with two monster TEs on the field at the same time. You burn that contract bridge when you get to it, I would say. Pick the best player.

I always look at it from a financial aspect . I think we had our guy(Reid) rated higher. Baalke said he had the deal agreed to contingent on Reid being there at 18, and the Cowboys wanted to still do the trade.

Idk, I like the pick, I thought the trade up was weird, but I'm cool with it. We got a good FS to be next to whitner, then whoever we add to take over for Whitner.

I'm with AB on this.
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
If the team if moving up to 18, get a player than matches the value. The pick should have been Tyler Eifert, who is going to be a stud in the NFL. Maybe the Bengals should send a Thank You card to the Niners for Christmas. The Niners obviously saw need at TE, as they selected McDonald 37 picks later. They should have picked up the best player on the board at that point, Eifert.

Here's the fallacy in your reasoning. The bolded is absolutely correct. You and the 49ers agree: TE was a need. And yet they still took Reid over Eifert at 18! That should tell you all you need to know, which is this: You believe Eifert was a better prospect and therefore BPA at that point. The 49ers believe Reid was a better prospect and therefore BPA at that point.

This isn't a disagreement over strategy or philosophy; it's a simply disagreement in evaluation. Now here's hoping the 49ers were more correct than you this time around, Reid becomes a better safety than Eifert does a tight end.
Excellent points you make, Lieut.

MD's entitled to his opinion though, and can give out whatever grades he wants.

Fact is that Baalke has access to coaches film, and has had the time to study quite a bit of it, while MD has stated that he is limited to utube and to whatever video clips might be available on the interwebs, plus he has to study them on his free time, as a hobby. So ultimately Baalke's evaluation of the players in the draft is based on much more information, and is likely to be more accurate and more complete.

Two years ago, for example, MD gave the Niners a "C-" for drafting Aldon Smith, Kaepernick, Culliver, Hunter, Kilgore, and Miller. He was highly critical not only of the Aldon Smith selection, but also of the second round selection of some QB named Kaepernick. Baalke should have taken a QB named Jackson much later, in the 6th or 7th round, and would have gotten equal value, according to MD back then.

Based on that history, it seems wiser to trust Baalke's evaluation of talent over MD's.

Kudos to MD, however, for raising the issues he raises and for giving us all an opportunity to better understand what Baalke does in the draft.

MD's "draft review" every year always makes for an interesting read and challenges us all to think critically about the Niner's draft selections.

Nothing wrong with that. IMHO.

Great points all around. I don't agree with MD's assessment as well. I think he believes he knows more then he does.
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by lamontb:
I don't think Brown works in the slot b/c he doesn't turn his hips quickly to run with wr's That's why they keep him on the outside. Same with Culliver. rogers is best suited for it I just don't think he has the speed left in the tank. Covering the slot is gonna be a issue just like it was last year if the pass rush isn't hitting home. Teams might want to get big corners like Seattle the problem is they aren't good like Seattle corners.

You may be right here about Brown/Rogers. I agree about Rogers...his issue seems more to do with his mindset and motivation. Ever notice how he plays harder once he gets burned and the spot light is on him?

Well, let's be honest here...Seattle CB's and S's are allowed to do whatever they want w/o recourse, unless they are playing IN Washington. With the aforementioned lineup and the shift to bigger, more physical CB's, we may be able to match up like this esp. if we establish that THAT is who we are now...refs identify with that and tend to give more leeway. Also, with more 4-man DL and rotation and an even greater emphasis on pass rush front the front 7, playing tighter up at the LOS and jamming the $%^& out of WR's means they don't have to cover very long and results in more PD's, INT's and disrupting of routes. But we'll need great range by our S's for over-the-top help just in case a WR breaks through the press and gets wide open. Insert Reid.
No matter what his ranking was in this draft, Reid appears to be bigger, faster, stronger, and smarter than Goldson. Once he gets some NFL experience, he's gonna be an upgrade at the FS position. IMHO.

And I think you're correct about Rogers--at least part of the problem is motivation. He's got the physical tools and the experience/knowledge needed to cover the slot, he just doesn't always seem to be motivated, doesn't always seem to work as hard at it as he should. Let's see if Asomugha doesn't give him a little competition this year.
Originally posted by AmpLee:
I think you factor in the contract as well as the players. We are getting proven commodities at WR2 and QB2 at fair market value, for low draft picks. It's a positive effect that came from our selection of choices. I would most certainly consider it. In fact, it's consideration is hardly debatable; those traded picks must be accounted for.
For what it's worth, I loved the Boldin acquisition. It was a stellar part of our offseason. But to me it's effectively a free agent signing (in spirit), and has almost nothing to do with the draft (in spite of the fact that it involved a draft pick). I feel it's disingenuous to include it as part of our draft grade, because it artificially boosts our grade.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
No matter what his ranking was in this draft, Reid appears to be bigger, faster, stronger, and smarter than Goldson. Once he gets some NFL experience, he's gonna be an upgrade at the FS position. IMHO.

And I think you're correct about Rogers--at least part of the problem is motivation. He's got the physical tools and the experience/knowledge needed to cover the slot, he just doesn't always seem to be motivated, doesn't always seem to work as hard at it as he should. Let's see if Asomugha doesn't give him a little competition this year.

I'm with you here...his IQ with a 29 Wonderlic score would suggest as much. I love that he was just as interested to go to NY to learn more about the stock market as he was being drafted by the 49ers. LOL. I have a feeling this kid could end up being very special and a much better center fielder over Goldson. Don't be surprised to see him leading our secondary and wearing the dot on his helmet very soon.

Nnamdi, a starting CB spot is yours for the taking! Beware Rogers...you've been placed on alert.
  • fryet
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 2,865
Thinks MD for your draft analysis. I was waiting for it. Personally, I think it is the best analysis that we can get as a 49er fan (other paid analysts may know about the draft in general, but they don't know the 49ers as well).

I don't see why MD gets such strong opinions on this board. I posted my draft analysis as well,as did many others. I didn't see anyone tell me that I don't know what I am talking about (which would be accurate). MD is just posting his opinion like everyone else.
It seems to me that Baalke et. al. use physical skills, intelligence, and (perhaps) attitude along with performance in ranking college players. You look at past selections such as CK or AS that appeared to be reaches because of performance and yet the 49ers valued them more highly than pundits did. It certainly seems to be the case in this draft.

Also, I wonder what grade the 49ers would have gotten from MD had they selected Tank in the first (say, by trading up to the 22nd pick using the 1st and 3rd) and Reid in the second.
Originally posted by CasBanaszek:
It seems to me that Baalke et. al. use physical skills, intelligence, and (perhaps) attitude along with performance in ranking college players. You look at past selections such as CK or AS that appeared to be reaches because of performance and yet the 49ers valued them more highly than pundits did. It certainly seems to be the case in this draft.

Also, I wonder what grade the 49ers would have gotten from MD had they selected Tank in the first (say, by trading up to the 22nd pick using the 1st and 3rd) and Reid in the second.

Good point. Maddog had rated Tank as his 10th best player in this entire draft and Patton as his 31st. Still hard to believe he gave us a b- getting that type of value (in his eyes) with picks 40 and 128 respectively.
Originally posted by fryet:
Thinks MD for your draft analysis. I was waiting for it. Personally, I think it is the best analysis that we can get as a 49er fan (other paid analysts may know about the draft in general, but they don't know the 49ers as well).

I don't see why MD gets such strong opinions on this board. I posted my draft analysis as well,as did many others. I didn't see anyone tell me that I don't know what I am talking about (which would be accurate). MD is just posting his opinion like everyone else.

Probably because you didnt give yourself an A and give the Niners a B-. LOL Maddog brings this on every year when he basically thinks his drafts would be far better than Baalke's. He may know more than most of us in here but he sure doesnt know more than the Niners front office guys.

I actually enjoy reading Maddogs posts. Some are quite informative.
Originally posted by daragon:
Great points all around. I don't agree with MD's assessment as well. I think he believes he knows more then he does.

You better watch it. The MOD POLICE will get you for saying things like that about BS...I mean MD.