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MadDog's 2013 NFL Draft Review

Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
If the team if moving up to 18, get a player than matches the value. The pick should have been Tyler Eifert, who is going to be a stud in the NFL. Maybe the Bengals should send a Thank You card to the Niners for Christmas. The Niners obviously saw need at TE, as they selected McDonald 37 picks later. They should have picked up the best player on the board at that point, Eifert.

Here's the fallacy in your reasoning. The bolded is absolutely correct. You and the 49ers agree: TE was a need. And yet they still took Reid over Eifert at 18! That should tell you all you need to know, which is this: You believe Eifert was a better prospect and therefore BPA at that point. The 49ers believe Reid was a better prospect and therefore BPA at that point.

This isn't a disagreement over strategy or philosophy; it's a simply disagreement in evaluation. Now here's hoping the 49ers were more correct than you this time around, Reid becomes a better safety than Eifert does a tight end.

Both, IMHO would have been great picks for us. I personally wanted Ertz with our second pick and Fleener over AJ last year. That said, let's be real here. In order, our top needs were FS, DE and TE. And we nailed it. The FS is going to play 100% of the time. The DE is going to play, maybe, 50% of the time and we all know the 2nd TE is going to play 50% of the time. If we didn't have Davis already as the #1 TE, then I'd agree with Eifert. But we needed a more "complementary" TE who can line up out of the Q, in the slot, on the LOS, in short yardage, big target in the RZ/EZ, etc. We needed a a guy to be that swiss army knife again since the departure of Walker so Davis can be free in the secondary. Roman is in love with this guy.

So when you factor the specific role the 2nd TE is going to play within our offense, Reid is the clear choice here followed by the DE and then TE.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Now, three picks before Reid was selected, the Saints grabbed Kenny Vacarro, who I believe is FAR superior to Reid. So, this was not a good value pick. Is Reid a bad player? No. Is he worth the 18th overall, a big NO!
I understand this logic, and I was thinking the same thing ('if they traded up to get Reid at 18, why not trade up to 14 to get Vaccaro?').

However, Harbaugh was interviewed on day 3 of the draft. In response to the pick with Reid, he said this (paraphrased): "Reid was our target all week. He is the guy we wanted. He was our top-rated player at the position coming into the draft."

Now, here's what I'm getting at with this: if the 49ers really preferred Reid to Vaccaro, why would they trade up even further to get the latter? They wouldn't! And that's why it's hard to fault them for how it played out (i.e. "oh, if only we had traded up 3 more spots!"). That criticism only makes sense if the team had the same Big Board as us and everyone else.

Thank you so much for your analysis though. Every year I read your stuff. Multiple times throughout the draft when someone was picked that I didn't know, I fired up your "top 50" topic to see where a guy ranked on your list. You get WAY too much crap around here for just sharing your views. I know the Webzone can be tough on people are objective (instead of being blind homers), so just letting you know I appreciate your work!
Originally posted by nw9erfan:

All of that stated, I do have a big problem with this draft in that a pretty glaring need has still gone unmet...a very quick CB that can cover the slot receivers that have suddenly sprung up all over the place...especially in the NFC West! Maybe the Niners feel like they can just hit the crap out of those slot guys at the LOS and just knock them off their routes with all the big corners they have now. Not sure that will be an effective strategy all of the time though. I'm hoping that T Brown can fill that role and that they move Rogers, who proved he couldn't hang with the slot guys, back out on the edge where he was so effective in 2011.

This and a true 2-gap NT who can collapse the step-up lane (pocket) as we've had consistent and good to great edge rushing for the past two years. That said, it appears we'll be going with many rotations this year along the DL and with it, many many many more 4-man fronts with additional pass rushers up at the LOS with Tank and Lemonier, Dorsey and an array of combinations. Remember, both Aldon and Brooks can line up on the LOS...Brooks even lines up inside as a DT at times as well (rushes and drops back). So Fangio now has a TON of different personnel packages he can run from a 4-man line that is hell bent on QB pressures under 3 seconds and a ton of athleticism to contain mobile QB's such as Wilson. We drafted our own Wilson-like QB for this defense to practice against. We'll be ready for Seattle!

Now, with all of THIS said, with an extra pass rusher in the front 7, that still leaves our secondary down 1 man. My guesstimate based on Baalke's targets in FA, his own words and who we drafted in the secondary, no doubt he is going more Seattle-like here. He wants much bigger, taller, more physical, aggressive secondary play and play up at the LOS. Keeping with this theme he drafts FS Eric Reid (6'2" 212 4.49 40, 40.5" VL 29 WS) and CB Marcus Cooper (6'2" 192) and we picked up Nnamdi Asomugha (6'2" 210). Culliver is probably the most physical CB we have on the roster. And I "still" think we bring in Charles Woodson (6'1" 202).

I think Fangio/Baalke want to get more physical up at the LOS and press the $^&%^ out of WR's. With this philosophy, you could end up with a starting unit of:

Asomugha (6'2" 210) (LCB) - Woodson (6'1" 202) (FS) - Reid (6'2" 212) (SS) - Culliver (6'0" 200) (RCB)

And you can add a Brown/Rogers epic battle for the slot role which I think Brown would win, hands-down.
Originally posted by theduke85:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Now, three picks before Reid was selected, the Saints grabbed Kenny Vacarro, who I believe is FAR superior to Reid. So, this was not a good value pick. Is Reid a bad player? No. Is he worth the 18th overall, a big NO!
I understand this logic, and I was thinking the same thing ('if they traded up to get Reid at 18, why not trade up to 14 to get Vaccaro?').

However, Harbaugh was interviewed on day 3 of the draft. In response to the pick with Reid, he said this (paraphrased): "Reid was our target all week. He is the guy we wanted. He was our top-rated player at the position coming into the draft."

Now, here's what I'm getting at with this: if the 49ers really preferred Reid to Vaccaro, why would they trade up even further to get the latter? They wouldn't! And that's why it's hard to fault them for how it played out (i.e. "oh, if only we had traded up 3 more spots!"). That criticism only makes sense if the team had the same Big Board as us and everyone else.

Thank you so much for your analysis though. Every year I read your stuff. Multiple times throughout the draft when someone was picked that I didn't know, I fired up your "top 50" topic to see where a guy ranked on your list. You get WAY too much crap around here for just sharing your views. I know the Webzone can be tough on people are objective (instead of being blind homers), so just letting you know I appreciate your work!

And IF we truly wanted Vacarro, we wouldn't be trading up with Dallas to get him...and ripping them off. We'd be trading up with a team that has a brain in the FO and who would ask for a boat load more!
Maddogs grades are 100% flawed, because they are 100% college performance based. He has ZERO insight into these players personalities and how they mesh with what is already on the team. So he sits on his high horse and criticizes those who have gotten this team to an nfc championship and a super bowl appearance in the last 2 seasons after nearly a decade of suck, using players the most of which he critisized being added to the team to begin with, even in light of the fact that maaaany his previous criticisms were flat out wrong, and then holds up those few instances when he was right to beat his chest as proof to the rest of us slack witted fools how right he was and continues to be.

No need to let him get any of us riled up. Opinions are like a-holes, and MD's is especially foul about this time eeeevery year.

Remember when MD said Baalke was one of the worse GM's in football, but then that same year the league gave him executive of the year honors?

Yea...
As to MD, awesome, awesome work as always. I almost wish trades were not allowed just so people can get a better grasp of how much quality work is done out there, like yours. Plus it just screws up all our mock drafts. LOL.

I appreciate your work, perspectives and your willingness to stand pat with your convictions. The draft is unique in that there may be several "right" answers no matter who we choose...there may be several wrong answers depending on scenarios and there can even be no-win scenarios as well...all things we may not know for several years (or ever).

Now is the time to go back and look at our mocks 2 and 3 years ago esp. now that its under the same, Baalke regime.
[ Edited by NCommand on Apr 29, 2013 at 8:47 AM ]
Originally posted by WINiner:
Maddogs grades are 100% flawed, because they are 100% college performance based. He has ZERO insight into these players personalities and how they mesh with what is already on the team. So he sits on his high horse and criticizes those who have gotten this team to an nfc championship and a super bowl appearance in the last 2 seasons after nearly a decade of suck, using players the most of which he critisized being added to the team to begin with, even in light of the fact that maaaany his previous criticisms were flat out wrong, and then holds up those few instances when he was right to beat his chest as proof to the rest of us slack witted fools how right he was and continues to be.

No need to let him get any of us riled up. Opinions are like a-holes, and MD's is especially foul about this time eeeevery year.

Remember when MD said Baalke was one of the worse GM's in football, but then that same year the league gave him executive of the year honors?

Yea...
Maybe his views are flawed, but putting his views out there every year like he does and taking this ridiculous criticism is pretty admirable. Maddog puts a lot of effort into these lists, and he spends as much time researching and analyzing as anyone. I think it's pretty courageous of him to speak his views, even when he disagrees with moves that we are making. Some people here just blindly slurp every move the front office makes. For him to be objective is a breath of fresh air.
2-down-players are just not worth anything more than a day 3 pick, and the niners have enough beef for the nose. had they picked a nose tackle in any of the first three rounds, i would've been pissed and surprised. the niners obviously felt pretty comfortable with their competition between tukuafu, williams and dorsey at this particular spot.

that said, i don't like safeties in the first unless they're ronnie lott or ed reed, but reid does seem to be the best fit for the niners' defense of all the safeties left at #18.
  • AmpLee
  • Hall of Fame
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I know it's been mentioned, but when grading our draft, one must factor in Boldin and McCoy. Aside from that, while picking up an extra 3 next year is fantastic, it's hard to put that into a current grade when it will be used to grade next year's draft as a draftee.

MD, I appreciate your effort, however, I get the sense you still think of Baalke as inadequate/lucky. I think you pin yourself to your prognostications to the effect that it doesn't allow you to consider any other perspective. There's no denying you arguably know more about these players than anyone on this board, but there's also no denying that our braintrust knows a whole of a heck of a lot more than the collective of this entire board does. They are simply privy to information we are not. That being said, any ribbing is in good nature and given your penchant for bold predictions, I'm sure there will be some in the future when this draft turns into an A.
Originally posted by AmpLee:
I know it's been mentioned, but when grading our draft, one must factor in Boldin and McCoy. Aside from that, while picking up an extra 3 next year is fantastic, it's hard to put that into a current grade when it will be used to grade next year's draft as a draftee.
I disagree. When you draft a player, you have him for 3-4 years at a heavily discounted price. We are paying $6m for Boldin this year. I don't think he and McCoy factor into the draft grade. Similarly, I wouldn't give the Seahawks credit for Harvin towards their draft, because they just gave him a $60m contract.
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by nw9erfan:

All of that stated, I do have a big problem with this draft in that a pretty glaring need has still gone unmet...a very quick CB that can cover the slot receivers that have suddenly sprung up all over the place...especially in the NFC West! Maybe the Niners feel like they can just hit the crap out of those slot guys at the LOS and just knock them off their routes with all the big corners they have now. Not sure that will be an effective strategy all of the time though. I'm hoping that T Brown can fill that role and that they move Rogers, who proved he couldn't hang with the slot guys, back out on the edge where he was so effective in 2011.

This and a true 2-gap NT who can collapse the step-up lane (pocket) as we've had consistent and good to great edge rushing for the past two years. That said, it appears we'll be going with many rotations this year along the DL and with it, many many many more 4-man fronts with additional pass rushers up at the LOS with Tank and Lemonier, Dorsey and an array of combinations. Remember, both Aldon and Brooks can line up on the LOS...Brooks even lines up inside as a DT at times as well (rushes and drops back). So Fangio now has a TON of different personnel packages he can run from a 4-man line that is hell bent on QB pressures under 3 seconds and a ton of athleticism to contain mobile QB's such as Wilson. We drafted our own Wilson-like QB for this defense to practice against. We'll be ready for Seattle!

Now, with all of THIS said, with an extra pass rusher in the front 7, that still leaves our secondary down 1 man. My guesstimate based on Baalke's targets in FA, his own words and who we drafted in the secondary, no doubt he is going more Seattle-like here. He wants much bigger, taller, more physical, aggressive secondary play and play up at the LOS. Keeping with this theme he drafts FS Eric Reid (6'2" 212 4.49 40, 40.5" VL 29 WS) and CB Marcus Cooper (6'2" 192) and we picked up Nnamdi Asomugha (6'2" 210). Culliver is probably the most physical CB we have on the roster. And I "still" think we bring in Charles Woodson (6'1" 202).

I think Fangio/Baalke want to get more physical up at the LOS and press the $^&%^ out of WR's. With this philosophy, you could end up with a starting unit of:

Asomugha (6'2" 210) (LCB) - Woodson (6'1" 202) (FS) - Reid (6'2" 212) (SS) - Culliver (6'0" 200) (RCB)

And you can add a Brown/Rogers epic battle for the slot role which I think Brown would win, hands-down.
I agree with you, NC, the Niners want to change up the secondary to add more pressure at CB, which is why they added to the DL and added a FS with great range. I don't think the personnel at CB was the problem at the end of last season, it seems like the injuries to Justin and Aldon Smith limited the pressure they could put on the QB, and that exposed Goldson as a less than adequate guy in support of the CB coverage.

I am also with you on the NT. I've been hopeing for a NT for the past 3 drafts. The first year I understood they simply moved Soap back to NT. Last year they picked up Ian Williams as an UDFA--which says that they don't value the position all that highly, don't think its all that necessary. This season they take Dial as a "versatile" DL who "could" play NT at 6'5" and 320, but can also play DE or DT.

Finally, you're spot on about the QB they added--someone who can imitate the Seattle Smurf in practice, so the OLBs won't be jumping in the air when he pump fakes! Great point.
  • AmpLee
  • Hall of Fame
  • Posts: 16,665
Originally posted by theduke85:
Originally posted by AmpLee:
I know it's been mentioned, but when grading our draft, one must factor in Boldin and McCoy. Aside from that, while picking up an extra 3 next year is fantastic, it's hard to put that into a current grade when it will be used to grade next year's draft as a draftee.
I disagree. When you draft a player, you have him for 3-4 years at a heavily discounted price. We are paying $6m for Boldin this year. I don't think he and McCoy factor into the draft grade. Similarly, I wouldn't give the Seahawks credit for Harvin towards their draft, because they just gave him a $60m contract.

I think you factor in the contract as well as the players. We are getting proven commodities at WR2 and QB2 at fair market value, for low draft picks. It's a positive effect that came from our selection of choices. I would most certainly consider it. In fact, it's consideration is hardly debatable; those traded picks must be accounted for.
[ Edited by AmpLee on Apr 29, 2013 at 9:04 AM ]
Originally posted by theduke85:
Originally posted by WINiner:
Maddogs grades are 100% flawed, because they are 100% college performance based. He has ZERO insight into these players personalities and how they mesh with what is already on the team. So he sits on his high horse and criticizes those who have gotten this team to an nfc championship and a super bowl appearance in the last 2 seasons after nearly a decade of suck, using players the most of which he critisized being added to the team to begin with, even in light of the fact that maaaany his previous criticisms were flat out wrong, and then holds up those few instances when he was right to beat his chest as proof to the rest of us slack witted fools how right he was and continues to be.

No need to let him get any of us riled up. Opinions are like a-holes, and MD's is especially foul about this time eeeevery year.

Remember when MD said Baalke was one of the worse GM's in football, but then that same year the league gave him executive of the year honors?

Yea...
Maybe his views are flawed, but putting his views out there every year like he does and taking this ridiculous criticism is pretty admirable. Maddog puts a lot of effort into these lists, and he spends as much time researching and analyzing as anyone. I think it's pretty courageous of him to speak his views, even when he disagrees with moves that we are making. Some people here just blindly slurp every move the front office makes. For him to be objective is a breath of fresh air.

MD puts a lot of effort into this so he can behave....well i'll just stop there so I avoid any warnings, but you go ahead and believe MD does what he does for any other benefit than to serve his own ego...go right ahead.

At least this year it was higher than a C grade. Also enjoyed the bit of humility in the closing paragraph for a change. Maybe he got sick and tired of being force fed crow....
[ Edited by WINiner on Apr 29, 2013 at 9:08 AM ]
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by nw9erfan:

All of that stated, I do have a big problem with this draft in that a pretty glaring need has still gone unmet...a very quick CB that can cover the slot receivers that have suddenly sprung up all over the place...especially in the NFC West! Maybe the Niners feel like they can just hit the crap out of those slot guys at the LOS and just knock them off their routes with all the big corners they have now. Not sure that will be an effective strategy all of the time though. I'm hoping that T Brown can fill that role and that they move Rogers, who proved he couldn't hang with the slot guys, back out on the edge where he was so effective in 2011.

This and a true 2-gap NT who can collapse the step-up lane (pocket) as we've had consistent and good to great edge rushing for the past two years. That said, it appears we'll be going with many rotations this year along the DL and with it, many many many more 4-man fronts with additional pass rushers up at the LOS with Tank and Lemonier, Dorsey and an array of combinations. Remember, both Aldon and Brooks can line up on the LOS...Brooks even lines up inside as a DT at times as well (rushes and drops back). So Fangio now has a TON of different personnel packages he can run from a 4-man line that is hell bent on QB pressures under 3 seconds and a ton of athleticism to contain mobile QB's such as Wilson. We drafted our own Wilson-like QB for this defense to practice against. We'll be ready for Seattle!

Now, with all of THIS said, with an extra pass rusher in the front 7, that still leaves our secondary down 1 man. My guesstimate based on Baalke's targets in FA, his own words and who we drafted in the secondary, no doubt he is going more Seattle-like here. He wants much bigger, taller, more physical, aggressive secondary play and play up at the LOS. Keeping with this theme he drafts FS Eric Reid (6'2" 212 4.49 40, 40.5" VL 29 WS) and CB Marcus Cooper (6'2" 192) and we picked up Nnamdi Asomugha (6'2" 210). Culliver is probably the most physical CB we have on the roster. And I "still" think we bring in Charles Woodson (6'1" 202).

I think Fangio/Baalke want to get more physical up at the LOS and press the $^&%^ out of WR's. With this philosophy, you could end up with a starting unit of:

Asomugha (6'2" 210) (LCB) - Woodson (6'1" 202) (FS) - Reid (6'2" 212) (SS) - Culliver (6'0" 200) (RCB)

And you can add a Brown/Rogers epic battle for the slot role which I think Brown would win, hands-down.

Totally agree with this, there is going to be a heavy Nickle front 4 rotation this year. As far as the back 4, Dante is our D's QB. It would be asking a lot for a rookie and a new player to bark out the aligments. Woodson can do it for sure since he played in a very similar D in GB, plus is a smart vet, but not sure the coaching staff makes that move. I would love to see Brown beat out Rogers and move him to battle Cox for Dime.
The Niners draft through 4 rounds was an A.. They hit on major needs, got great value with Tank, Patton, and Lattimore, and picked up a 3rd rounder in a strong 2014 draft. Seriously, its almost impossible to see how this would grade anything lower. Now, I wasnt crazy about the draft from the 5th round down but honestly I dont know the guys who were selected there so its impossible for me to truly judge these picks. I will simply have to trust guys who know MORE than anyone in here.

Would I have liked a speedy corner? Sure. But, I think the need for a corner is much greater in the 2014 draft and will be addressed.

I respect the work MD does but I just think its impossible for him to give the Niners a truly high grade if they pick guys that dont match his feelings. I just wonder how many times he actually watched any of the Niners picks in the last 3 rounds.