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MadDog's 2013 NFL Draft Review

Originally posted by bigwads:
Maddog is spot on with the Reid pick for a number of reasons.

Although, I don't believe the trade and pick were made out of "desperation" I do think it was simply wrong. The analysis of the player by our FO is wrong, where they drafted him was way too high and to make it worse the player we took at 18 was wrong.

Like maddog when the trade happened I thought we were trading up for Eifert. He was the only guy worth trading up for IMO (maybe Floyd too), and if we had taken Eifert the entire league would have $hit their pants.

Despite the Autin hysteria, Eifert will go down as the best offensive player in this entire draft.

TE was one of three positions of huge need for us and IMO none of the safeties in this draft were worthy of first round selection.

Frankly, there will be no difference in impact on a team between McDonald taken by the Rams in the 3rd and Reid.

But, everyone bemoaning the pick, including myself, hopes to be wrong...but I doubt it (see, A.J. Jenkins pick last year.


I definitely would have gone for Eifert at 18th as well. I happen to like Reid, but not at 18th. Then, there was the question of trading down from 34th which to me was a huge mistake. I would have been OK with it if we had stayed put and drafted either Justin Hunter or Zach Ertz at 34th, at least to make sure we get 1 legit high-ranked impact playmaker to cover our ground to achieve a better balance with all the additions on the defensive side of the ball.
  • buck
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It is going to interesting to watch what happens on the field.

Looks like the performances of Reid and McDonald are going to be major factors in the evaluation of this draft. .

Reid should win the starting job, and McDonald should be playing a fair amount.

I wanted Ertz, and had him in my mock, but I was not sure if he had the versatility to replicate Walker's role in the offensive scheme.
McDonald seemed to a better option as a schematic fit than Ertz, but I liked the tie between Ertz and Brent Jones, so I stayed with Ertz.

I honestly do not have a feel for Reid. On paper, he appears to be a good pick, but I waiver as I listen to the discussion.

I do not put much stock in the discussions of who we should have drafted or pretend to have enough knowledge to honestly evaluate the trade for Reid.

In looking at this draft, I am hoping the Maddog's grade (B-) proves to be in a worse case scenario the floor for this draft.
And when all is said and done,a B - is hardly a bad grade for a draft.

In a couple of years, we will be able to evaluate the players we picked.
[ Edited by buck on May 2, 2013 at 11:39 AM ]
Originally posted by bigwads:
Maddog is spot on with the Reid pick for a number of reasons.

Although, I don't believe the trade and pick were made out of "desperation" I do think it was simply wrong. The analysis of the player by our FO is wrong, where they drafted him was way too high and to make it worse the player we took at 18 was wrong.

Like maddog when the trade happened I thought we were trading up for Eifert. He was the only guy worth trading up for IMO (maybe Floyd too), and if we had taken Eifert the entire league would have $hit their pants.

Despite the Autin hysteria, Eifert will go down as the best offensive player in this entire draft.

TE was one of three positions of huge need for us and IMO none of the safeties in this draft were worthy of first round selection.

Frankly, there will be no difference in impact on a team between McDonald taken by the Rams in the 3rd and Reid.

But, everyone bemoaning the pick, including myself, hopes to be wrong...but I doubt it (see, A.J. Jenkins pick last year.
Remember, Harbaugh and his coaching staff made some TEs at Stanford pretty successful. They knew enough to recruit those guys to Stanford in the first place, and then utilized them in games extensively and successfully.

So in this draft they decide to forgo drafting Eifert and Ertz, and others at TE, and decide to move up a little to take McDonald. He certainly appears to have the physical tools needed.

I believe MD would agree that we should all try to analyse the Niner's picks logically, and set aside whatever "draft crush" we may have developed predraft for any particular player. No question Eifert would have been an excellent selection, but it appears that McDonald may have as much, or even more potential, and his selection in the third round allowed them to fill team needs at FS and DE as well. Its difficult to logically find fault with that strategy.

Time will tell.
[ Edited by oldninerdude on May 2, 2013 at 11:40 AM ]
Originally posted by buck:
I checked the career stats for Quinton Dial and Jessie Williams at NCAA site and College Football Stats site.

There is a difference between the two sites for the stats for Quinton Dial.

The NCAA site has him playing in 25 games and credits him with 46 tackles (20 solo and 26 assists).

The College Football site has him playing in 24 games and credits him with 40 tackles (17 solo and 23 assists)

Both sites have Jessie Williams playing in 26 games and credit him with 61 tackles (17 solo and 44 assists).

Their other stats are the same for the two sites.

Sacks Dial--2.5 Williams—1.5

TFL Dial—8 Williams-- 6.5

QBH Dial—5 Williams—8

PBU Dial—0 Williams--3

Hope this helps.

http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/mainpage.jsp?year=2012

http://www.cfbstats.com/
Nice post, Buck... Very informative. Thanks, man.

I think another factor that plays into the comparison is the number of snaps these two players had. Dial wasn't even a starter and Jesse Williams was...so the latter played a significantly higher number of snaps. With that taken into account (not to mention that Jesse Williams has a degenerative knee condition that will likely shorten his NFL career), it would appear that the Niners like Dial better as a long term prospect.

Dial is raw of course, but he is huge, athletic, and has no injury history. I think we can trust that the Niners did their homework on these guys before they made their choice.
[ Edited by nw9erfan on May 2, 2013 at 11:41 AM ]
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Originally posted by nw9erfan:
Nice post, Buck... Very informative. Thanks, man.

I think another factor that plays into the comparison is the number of snaps these two players had. Dial wasn't even a starter and Jesse Williams was...so the latter played a significantly higher number of snaps. With that taken into account (not to mention that Jesse Williams has a degenerative knee condition that will likely shorten his NFL career), it would appear that the Niners like Dial better as a long term prospect.

Dial is raw of coursggee, but he is huge, athletic, and has no injury history. I think we can trust that the Niners did their homework on these guys before they made their choice.

Thanks.

I tried to reconcile the difference between tackle stats between the two sites and all I got was a headache.

I am checking the Alabama web page to see what they have. If I find anything, I will edit the post.

edit: The Alabama web site stats match the stats from the NCAA site.

So, I would conclude that Dial played in 25 games and had 46 tackles (20 solo and 26 assists).
[ Edited by buck on May 2, 2013 at 12:26 PM ]
Originally posted by buck:
It is going to interesting to watch what happens on the field.

Looks like the performances of Reid and McDonald are going to be major factors in the evaluation of this draft. .

Reid should win the starting job, and McDonald should be playing a fair amount.

I wanted Ertz, and had him in my mock, but I was not sure if he had the versatility to replicate Walker's role in the offensive scheme.
McDonald seemed to a better option as a schematic fit than Ertz, but I liked the tie between Ertz and Brent Jones, so I stayed with Ertz.

I honestly do not have a feel for Reid. On paper, he appears to be a good pick, but I waiver as I listen to the discussion.

I do not put much stock in the discussions of who we should have drafted or pretend to have enough knowledge to honestly evaluate the trade for Reid.

In looking at this draft, I am hoping the Maddog's grade (B-) proves to be in a worse case scenario the floor for this draft.
And when all is said and done,a B - is hardly a bad grade for a draft.

In a couple of years, we will be able to evaluate the players we picked.

Nothing wrong with a B-. It means you hit on some players, missed on others. The draft grades that many experts give are inflated. Way too many A and B grades in my opinion. An average draft should be labeled a C grade. However, I think some see an average draft as a B grade.
  • SoCold
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Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by buck:
It is going to interesting to watch what happens on the field.

Looks like the performances of Reid and McDonald are going to be major factors in the evaluation of this draft. .

Reid should win the starting job, and McDonald should be playing a fair amount.

I wanted Ertz, and had him in my mock, but I was not sure if he had the versatility to replicate Walker's role in the offensive scheme.
McDonald seemed to a better option as a schematic fit than Ertz, but I liked the tie between Ertz and Brent Jones, so I stayed with Ertz.

I honestly do not have a feel for Reid. On paper, he appears to be a good pick, but I waiver as I listen to the discussion.

I do not put much stock in the discussions of who we should have drafted or pretend to have enough knowledge to honestly evaluate the trade for Reid.

In looking at this draft, I am hoping the Maddog's grade (B-) proves to be in a worse case scenario the floor for this draft.
And when all is said and done,a B - is hardly a bad grade for a draft.

In a couple of years, we will be able to evaluate the players we picked.

Nothing wrong with a B-. It means you hit on some players, missed on others. The draft grades that many experts give are inflated. Way too many A and B grades in my opinion. An average draft should be labeled a C grade. However, I think some see an average draft as a B grade.
this as I outlined from you picks a few pages ago
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Remember, Harbaugh and his coaching staff made some TEs at Stanford pretty successful. They knew enough to recruit those guys to Stanford in the first place, and then utilized them in games extensively and successfully.

So in this draft they decide to forgo drafting Eifert and Ertz, and others at TE, and decide to move up a little to take McDonald. He certainly appears to have the physical tools needed.

I believe MD would agree that we should all try to analyse the Niner's picks logically, and set aside whatever "draft crush" we may have developed predraft for any particular player. No question Eifert would have been an excellent selection, but it appears that McDonald may have as much, or even more potential, and his selection in the third round allowed them to fill team needs at FS and DE as well. Its difficult to logically find fault with that strategy.

Time will tell.

I really like Mike Mayock, but I have to admit, when he says the phrase, "My guy", I cringe. You simply lose objectivity in making an observation about a player. When that happens, you end up drafting a Danny Watkins, who graded so poorly during the Senior Bowl game, that I actually PM'd OTC after the game and said, "Did anyone else catch how bad he was in that game?" That puppy was screaming red flags, and he went on to be a first round disaster.

When you play favorites, you are going to be burned. And, as much as I hate Notre Dame, Eifert is a baller. All of that being said, McDonald is the most intriguing TE in this draft. The measurables of big/strong/fast all line up. Now, it is matter if it translates to the field.

Final note: Got to love Patton reporting early. Have a feeling he will not report out of shape, like AJ did last year. Some of these small schoolers are so hungry to make an impact, that they will run through a wall. Can't wait to see him play soon. Dare I say, I'd put money he and Tank will be the most impactful draftees from this 49ers class.
[ Edited by MadDog49er on May 2, 2013 at 1:07 PM ]
Originally posted by nw9erfan:
Originally posted by buck:
I checked the career stats for Quinton Dial and Jessie Williams at NCAA site and College Football Stats site.

There is a difference between the two sites for the stats for Quinton Dial.

The NCAA site has him playing in 25 games and credits him with 46 tackles (20 solo and 26 assists).

The College Football site has him playing in 24 games and credits him with 40 tackles (17 solo and 23 assists)

Both sites have Jessie Williams playing in 26 games and credit him with 61 tackles (17 solo and 44 assists).

Their other stats are the same for the two sites.

Sacks Dial--2.5 Williams—1.5

TFL Dial—8 Williams-- 6.5

QBH Dial—5 Williams—8

PBU Dial—0 Williams--3

Hope this helps.

http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/mainpage.jsp?year=2012

http://www.cfbstats.com/
Nice post, Buck... Very informative. Thanks, man.

I think another factor that plays into the comparison is the number of snaps these two players had. Dial wasn't even a starter and Jesse Williams was...so the latter played a significantly higher number of snaps. With that taken into account (not to mention that Jesse Williams has a degenerative knee condition that will likely shorten his NFL career), it would appear that the Niners like Dial better as a long term prospect.

Dial is raw of course, but he is huge, athletic, and has no injury history. I think we can trust that the Niners did their homework on these guys before they made their choice.

I agree. When you look at the number of solo tackles, tackles for loss and figure that he didnt come close to the number of snaps that Williams had his productivity may have been greater. Williams played DE in their 3-4 for parts of his time in Alabama too.. so you cant just say he was a NT
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Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Nothing wrong with a B-. It means you hit on some players, missed on others. The draft grades that many experts give are inflated. Way too many A and B grades in my opinion. An average draft should be labeled a C grade. However, I think some see an average draft as a B grade.

The only thing wrong with a C is that people would consider it a failure, and call for Baalke's head.

Grading a draft seems to be a very complicated and I am still looking for a way to reduce my prejudices, both negative and positive, from my attempts.

Given the ingrained debilities of grading a draft before the draftees have played a down of ball in the NFL, I have opted to wait.

I read the discussions and try to learn from the perspectives presented.

I would like to commend you for the obvious positive change in the tone and tenor of your posts. Good job on that.

I do feel that you have been overly critical of Baalke and tend not to give him the credit he merits, but I sense that is also changing.

It's hard to argue the logic of this year's selections. Reid was the team's highest rated FS (reportedly) and he filled the largest void on the roster. You have to take him there. Plus, they seemed to love McDonald as their #2 TE prospect. We landed our #1 FS, Tank, and our #2 TE.

If we would've went for Eifert, we'd have our #1 TE, probably our #3-4 FS, and a lesser DE later in the 2nd. It looks like we did it right, IMO. If this draft doesn't work out, it'll be an issue of scouting talent. The way Baalke managed to draft the players he had ranked high was impressive.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Nothing wrong with a B-. It means you hit on some players, missed on others. The draft grades that many experts give are inflated. Way too many A and B grades in my opinion. An average draft should be labeled a C grade. However, I think some see an average draft as a B grade.


There's more room on the downside than on the upside though. For example, if every team in the league followed your value board exactly (ie. if you made the picks for every team) then every team deserves an "A" because they did the best possible job they could with the picks they had. Any of the teams could have had a better draft, but only if other teams drafted worse. So there are very few ways for any given team to draft perfect (only one way, in fact), but there are a million different ways for a team to draft poorly.
So given the inherit rarity of a perfect draft, a higher grading scale makes more sense.


The 49ers picked Tank and Patton, which were "best" value picks on your board. I'm curious if any other team had more "best" value picks than that?
Originally posted by strickac:
It's hard to argue the logic of this year's selections. Reid was the team's highest rated FS (reportedly) and he filled the largest void on the roster. You have to take him there. Plus, they seemed to love McDonald as their #2 TE prospect. We landed our #1 FS, Tank, and our #2 TE.

If we would've went for Eifert, we'd have our #1 TE, probably our #3-4 FS, and a lesser DE later in the 2nd. It looks like we did it right, IMO. If this draft doesn't work out, it'll be an issue of scouting talent. The way Baalke managed to draft the players he had ranked high was impressive.


Also, people can't forget what Bill Walsh used to talk about. He talked about how he would select players that FIT into his team. "How does this player FIT into our system?" It's not always about top positional talent.
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Originally posted by bigwads:
Maddog is spot on with the Reid pick for a number of reasons.

Although, I don't believe the trade and pick were made out of "desperation" I do think it was simply wrong. The analysis of the player by our FO is wrong, where they drafted him was way too high and to make it worse the player we took at 18 was wrong.

Like maddog when the trade happened I thought we were trading up for Eifert. He was the only guy worth trading up for IMO (maybe Floyd too), and if we had taken Eifert the entire league would have $hit their pants.

Despite the Autin hysteria, Eifert will go down as the best offensive player in this entire draft.

TE was one of three positions of huge need for us and IMO none of the safeties in this draft were worthy of first round selection.

Frankly, there will be no difference in impact on a team between McDonald taken by the Rams in the 3rd and Reid.

But, everyone bemoaning the pick, including myself, hopes to be wrong...but I doubt it (see, A.J. Jenkins pick last year.
Remember, Harbaugh and his coaching staff made some TEs at Stanford pretty successful. They knew enough to recruit those guys to Stanford in the first place, and then utilized them in games extensively and successfully.

So in this draft they decide to forgo drafting Eifert and Ertz, and others at TE, and decide to move up a little to take McDonald. He certainly appears to have the physical tools needed.

I believe MD would agree that we should all try to analyse the Niner's picks logically, and set aside whatever "draft crush" we may have developed predraft for any particular player. No question Eifert would have been an excellent selection, but it appears that McDonald may have as much, or even more potential, and his selection in the third round allowed them to fill team needs at FS and DE as well. Its difficult to logically find fault with that strategy.

Time will tell.

I think everyone is hoping our picks work out of course. I don't have any issue with the McDonald pick at all...I had him in one of my mocks. I think we were forced to trade up for him because Escobar got taken earlier than we all expected.

Reid just isn't worth the #18 pick, period. Polamalu was taken #16 and Reed #24. Reid doesn't even tie these guys shoes as a prospect.

I really hope something weird was going on at LSU that put Reid in some weird positions as a player, which can happen. The problem I have is I never thought he was that great in 2011 or 2012. I always thought he was overrated.

We needed a red zone threat, and Eifert was that guy. Hopefully McDonald can fill this roll but I am not confident he will be near the caliber of Eifert.

Obviously the FO thought Reid was a very good player, so I hope they are right...they were dead wrong about Jenkins last year.

As a grade I gave us a B-, we simply could have done better. We did make some great value picks though, but there were some real squanders too.
[ Edited by bigwads on May 2, 2013 at 3:43 PM ]
Originally posted by BrianGO:
Also, people can't forget what Bill Walsh used to talk about. He talked about how he would select players that FIT into his team. "How does this player FIT into our system?" It's not always about top positional talent.

Excellent point. How does Reid stack up against other FS's when it comes to being physical and attacking the ball carrier (RB) aggressively? That might be a trait that Baalke/Harbaugh want in their FS. In that case, I am not sure Swearinger was on their list of FS preferences.

Same goes with McDonald. Does Ertz do well with blocking and lining up in the slot?
[ Edited by thl408 on May 2, 2013 at 4:00 PM ]