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MadDog's 2013 NFL Draft Review

Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
Originally posted by buck:
Originally posted by jreff22:
up to this draft he had only had 2 classes to his name....and last years sucked

Think you made a mistake. This Baalke's fourth draft.

2010--B to A range
2011--looks solid B+ to A
2012--looks bad
2013--we do not have a clue.

Still have to wait at least one more year before concluding that last years sucked.
But, yeah it looks bad.

2011 a B+ to A??? That is one of the best drafts I've ever seen. Plus they landed a franchise QB. Easy A+. The rest I agree. So far 2010 is B-A, 2012 is a D- and I like 2013, but clearly don't know

Franchise QB and franchise pass rusher, considered the #1 and #2 "core" positions in football.
MD - For the record, you and I had quite a difference of opinion on which round we thought Cornelieus Washington would be drafted. I believe you said the 3rd round? My initial prediction was the 5th round. Just saying...

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2013/profiles/cornelius-washington?id=2539232
So you were both wrong then.
  • buck
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Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
Originally posted by buck:
Originally posted by jreff22:
up to this draft he had only had 2 classes to his name....and last years sucked

Think you made a mistake. This Baalke's fourth draft.

2010--B to A range
2011--looks solid B+ to A
2012--looks bad
2013--we do not have a clue.

Still have to wait at least one more year before concluding that last years sucked.
But, yeah it looks bad.

2011 a B+ to A??? That is one of the best drafts I've ever seen. Plus they landed a franchise QB. Easy A+. The rest I agree. So far 2010 is B-A, 2012 is a D- and I like 2013, but clearly don't know

Yeah, you are right about the 2011 draft.

But, I still think that we have wait one more year, maybe two to grade the 2012 draft. But, you are not far off based upon what has happened so far.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
Mad Dog, thanks for your hours and hours of research, thought and preparation. Kudos to AB on page one noting that we would have had two tight ends both in the big $$ range, plus we desperately needed a FS/CB to make up for loss of Goldson(who was NOT a favorite of mine). He tackled well, he covered well...but when the guy you are covering catches the pass, what good does it do to make the tackle?...and it happened a lot. So we needed FS way more than TE, a point I made long ago. As for vaccarro, my brother and I are HORN exes and die hard fans, and vacarro is going to be a big disappointment to his team in NFL. The point AB made about signings and $$ is one I think we all overlook(except AB), and was spot on for the Reid pick. No, I wouldn't want our #18 pick to be paid somewhat similar to vernon....if we are paying #18 kind of money, make it on our biggest area of need, FS. Thanks for the reminder, AB.

As an aside, I gave up picking players long ago when I realized there was no way I could read what 31 other teams secretly wanted, nor what they would do in trading up or down. Not an infinite # of choices, but darn close. Hence, I was 2 DLs, 1 FS, TE/WR and OT and out. I figured trent would use at least 5 picks to move up the other 5 slots (if indicated). I had no idea he would pick 11 guys. There, I think is where some waste came in. We already have stockpiled 3(?) picks for 2014 and I think have 2 , 3 or 4 comp picks. I thot at least 1/3 of our picks would go to moving up or stockpiling. So I completely misread what trent was doing, but am glad he decided against vacarro. Whether reid is a starter or not, we shall see, but i bet he will do just fine. I had us picking our second DL before TE so was surprised by that pick, but sounds like SEA had something to do with that. That said, I am very anxious to see what Vance McD has. Like everybody has said, it is easy to rate our 2010 pick.

Hare are the contract details for the 18th pick in last year's draft, Melvin Ingram. Reid's contract should be similar, and I don't think it would have been outrageous to pay Eifert this much:

5/8/2012: Signed a four-year, $8.39 million contract. The deal contains $7.61 million guaranteed, including a $4.548 million signing bonus.
2012: $390,000
2013: $771,738
2014: $1,153,476
2015: $785,214,
2016: Free Agent

The cap hit in 2012 was $1.5 million and would max at $2.6 million in 2015 of the team elected to keep him on the roster (750k subtracted if not)

Get the best players, and deal with the cap in other ways. You don't want to pass on a future star in order to fill a need or because it looks more beneficial to the salary cap.

i look at the value of the pick a bit differently---eifert as the niners 2nd tight end would probably play about the same number of snaps as delanie walker did--iirc it was about 60% of the snaps....reid would play about the same # of snaps as goldson did, which i would estimate to be about 90% of the snaps or more...reid has more value from such a perspective
  • buck
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Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
5. Quinton Dial, 157th overall. Dial is a very intriguing prospect. He has excellent size for a 34 DE, and played in a terrific program. He has a nasty streak about him. In fact, to me, he is one of the dirtier college football players. Some like that nasty streak, others see it as a sign of bad character. Honestly, I couldn't care less, as long as he is productive. Looking at his numbers, 40 total tackles in two years. To me, a bit on the low side. I look at a player like Kapron Lewis Moore who played the exact position as Dial, a 34DE, and see 40 tackles in 2012. To me, this would have been the better choice between the two players.

Actually it is 46 tackles and he had 20 solo tackles compared to 17 for your 32nd rated player Jesse Williams. Maybe the #s are why Jesse Williams wasnt drafted where you thought he should go but fell to the 5th.

I checked the career stats for Quinton Dial and Jessie Williams at NCAA site and College Football Stats site.

There is a difference between the two sites for the stats for Quinton Dial.

The NCAA site has him playing in 25 games and credits him with 46 tackles (20 solo and 26 assists).

The College Football site has him playing in 24 games and credits him with 40 tackles (17 solo and 23 assists)

Both sites have Jessie Williams playing in 26 games and credit him with 61 tackles (17 solo and 44 assists).

edit: The Alabama web site stats match the stats from the NCAA site.
So, I would conclude that Dial played in 25 games and had 46 tackles (20 solo and 26 assists).

Their other stats are the same for the two sites.

Sacks Dial--2.5 Williams—1.5

TFL Dial—8 Williams-- 6.5

QBH Dial—5 Williams—8

PBU Dial—0 Williams--3

Hope this helps.

http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/mainpage.jsp?year=2012

http://www.cfbstats.com/
[ Edited by buck on May 2, 2013 at 12:28 PM ]
Here is an article that criticizes the 49ers first and second round picks. If we are trading up, they liked Eifert at 18. Or, stand pat and take Cyprien at 31 and Hunter at 34.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1624956-san-francisco-49ers-4-key-prospects-the-team-passed-over-in-the-2013-nfl-draft

Thought you would enjoy it, MD!

BTW, kudos to all the participants of this thread. It is one of the more thoughtful threads in the draft forum. Love how much factual data people are using to back their assertions.
Originally posted by mebemused:
Here is an article that criticizes the 49ers first and second round picks. If we are trading up, they liked Eifert at 18. Or, stand pat and take Cyprien at 31 and Hunter at 34.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1624956-san-francisco-49ers-4-key-prospects-the-team-passed-over-in-the-2013-nfl-draft

Thought you would enjoy it, MD!

BTW, kudos to all the participants of this thread. It is one of the more thoughtful threads in the draft forum. Love how much factual data people are using to back their assertions.


ugh

not Bleachers Report. I want that site to do die a quick death. I hate when I google a sports topic they have like the first 10 links, and they are ALL s**tty topical articles.
Originally posted by mebemused:
Here is an article that criticizes the 49ers first and second round picks. If we are trading up, they liked Eifert at 18. Or, stand pat and take Cyprien at 31 and Hunter at 34.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1624956-san-francisco-49ers-4-key-prospects-the-team-passed-over-in-the-2013-nfl-draft

Thought you would enjoy it, MD!

BTW, kudos to all the participants of this thread. It is one of the more thoughtful threads in the draft forum. Love how much factual data people are using to back their assertions.


EXACTLY !!!

Although I happen to like Eric Reid, the right thing to do in my opinion was to stay put. To me, whichever way you look at it, net net, Cyprien + Hunter would have been by far the better move. Or in fact perhaps by my reckoning, Eric Reid might still have been available at 31st, that we will never know.

My bottomline is this, either you get Justin Hunter or a top TE such as Zach Ertz at 34th to make sure at least you end up with 1 top ranked offensive impact playmaker in order you cover your ground to achieve a better balance with all the defensive additions they were making.
Rascal, with no trading up or down, I would agree with you. I would love to have gotten Reid at 31 and Tank at 34.(well we dropped back a bit to pick him up.). I doubt that trent moved up because he wanted Reid so badly. He most surely did it because Reid was our man and one, two of 3 teams ahead of us had eyes on Reid too. I just don't think he would have made it to 31. So this was a pick influenced by what another Team X was planning to do. Actually I think 2 other teams would have taken Reid before us. 18th may have been too high, but Team X may have taken him at #19. I see no problem with what trent did, even tho, without trade ups, he would have been there at 31. Unfortunately THERE ARE TRADES, and that was the deciding factor in the move. Frankly I was floored when Dallas traded down....for a 3rd rd Center from Wisconsin. Also it cost us a 3rd when it should have cost us a 2nd and maybe a 3rd also. The joke is the cowboys needed a top tier FS also. Big jer made the pick look like trent was a wizard. Actually, an egocentric owner, coach, OC , DC, and every other job on the team is based on what big jer wants. I wonder if besides all the above, if the guy isn't in suffering from some form of dementia.
[ Edited by pasodoc9er on May 1, 2013 at 8:39 PM ]
Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
Rascal, with no trading up or down, I would agree with you. I would love to have gotten Reid at 31 and Tank at 34.(well we dropped back a bit to pick him up.). I doubt that trent moved up because he wanted Reid so badly. He most surely did it because Reid was our man and one, two of 3 teams ahead of us had eyes on Reid too. I just don't think he would have made it to 31. So this was a pick influenced by what another Team X was planning to do. Actually I think 2 other teams would have taken Reid before us. 18th may have been too high, but Team X may have taken him at #19. I see no problem with what trent did, even tho, without trade ups, he would have been there at 31. Unfortunately THERE ARE TRADES, and that was the deciding factor in the move. Frankly I was floored when Dallas traded down....for a 3rd rd Center from Wisconsin. Also it cost us a 3rd when it should have cost us a 2nd and maybe a 3rd also. The joke is the cowboys needed a top tier FS also. Big jer made the pick look like trent was a wizard. Actually, an egocentric owner, coach, OC , DC, and every other job on the team is based on what big jer wants. I wonder if besides all the above, if the guy isn't in suffering from some form of dementia.


Well, we all know about JJ. Having said that, imagine if we were rich enough to be the owner of the 9ers or say if we were Jed York, for me at least it would be very hard for me not to influence the choice of picks to some degree. Seriously, if I was Jed York, I would have told Baalke to make sure we landed Hunter and/or Ertz. That's just me being honest. LOL.
Originally posted by hofer36:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
Mad Dog, thanks for your hours and hours of research, thought and preparation. Kudos to AB on page one noting that we would have had two tight ends both in the big $$ range, plus we desperately needed a FS/CB to make up for loss of Goldson(who was NOT a favorite of mine). He tackled well, he covered well...but when the guy you are covering catches the pass, what good does it do to make the tackle?...and it happened a lot. So we needed FS way more than TE, a point I made long ago. As for vaccarro, my brother and I are HORN exes and die hard fans, and vacarro is going to be a big disappointment to his team in NFL. The point AB made about signings and $$ is one I think we all overlook(except AB), and was spot on for the Reid pick. No, I wouldn't want our #18 pick to be paid somewhat similar to vernon....if we are paying #18 kind of money, make it on our biggest area of need, FS. Thanks for the reminder, AB.

As an aside, I gave up picking players long ago when I realized there was no way I could read what 31 other teams secretly wanted, nor what they would do in trading up or down. Not an infinite # of choices, but darn close. Hence, I was 2 DLs, 1 FS, TE/WR and OT and out. I figured trent would use at least 5 picks to move up the other 5 slots (if indicated). I had no idea he would pick 11 guys. There, I think is where some waste came in. We already have stockpiled 3(?) picks for 2014 and I think have 2 , 3 or 4 comp picks. I thot at least 1/3 of our picks would go to moving up or stockpiling. So I completely misread what trent was doing, but am glad he decided against vacarro. Whether reid is a starter or not, we shall see, but i bet he will do just fine. I had us picking our second DL before TE so was surprised by that pick, but sounds like SEA had something to do with that. That said, I am very anxious to see what Vance McD has. Like everybody has said, it is easy to rate our 2010 pick.

Hare are the contract details for the 18th pick in last year's draft, Melvin Ingram. Reid's contract should be similar, and I don't think it would have been outrageous to pay Eifert this much:

5/8/2012: Signed a four-year, $8.39 million contract. The deal contains $7.61 million guaranteed, including a $4.548 million signing bonus.
2012: $390,000
2013: $771,738
2014: $1,153,476
2015: $785,214,
2016: Free Agent

The cap hit in 2012 was $1.5 million and would max at $2.6 million in 2015 of the team elected to keep him on the roster (750k subtracted if not)

Get the best players, and deal with the cap in other ways. You don't want to pass on a future star in order to fill a need or because it looks more beneficial to the salary cap.

i look at the value of the pick a bit differently---eifert as the niners 2nd tight end would probably play about the same number of snaps as delanie walker did--iirc it was about 60% of the snaps....reid would play about the same # of snaps as goldson did, which i would estimate to be about 90% of the snaps or more...reid has more value from such a perspective


eifert wouldn't come off the field, and our increased passing ability out of 2 TE sets would have made this offense markedly better. The next best safety on the niners board would still be a very good safety, and we would have moved up to get him I'm sure
[ Edited by Big_Daddy on May 1, 2013 at 10:06 PM ]
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Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
Originally posted by buck:
Originally posted by jreff22:
up to this draft he had only had 2 classes to his name....and last years sucked

Think you made a mistake. This Baalke's fourth draft.

2010--B to A range
2011--looks solid B+ to A
2012--looks bad
2013--we do not have a clue.

Still have to wait at least one more year before concluding that last years sucked.
But, yeah it looks bad.

2011 a B+ to A??? That is one of the best drafts I've ever seen. Plus they landed a franchise QB. Easy A+. The rest I agree. So far 2010 is B-A, 2012 is a D- and I like 2013, but clearly don't know

Franchise QB and franchise pass rusher, considered the #1 and #2 "core" positions in football.

2010: A- (Taylor Mays decreases it slightly)
2011: A+ (When you find cornerstones on offense (Kaepernick; Miller) and defense (Al. Smith), you get a 4.0+ GPA)
2012: I (This is a draft for the future. Let's see if James can do PR duties, Jenkins can fill in for Manningham after another offseason, and Looney can beat out Goodwin in camp for the C gig. Maybe Fleming to ILB?)
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by WildBill:
It was not just the Bengals, but the Rams were waiting also, they ended up trading out. Of course you won't know that because no team will admit they wanted that guy unless in the future they get him and admit that. Also, Behind them was the Ravens, who could have jumped the niners. There is also the fact that few people, MadDog included, doesn't take into account the style and scheme that a team plays and whether that player is a fit, only the value as a player.

That Reid played in a big program and is smart, not to mention the measurables like 40.5 vertical, 4.49-4.51 40 and is 6-1 + and 219. (which is what everyone including the niners wanted to match against the bigger wr and te in the league.

Disagree with your assessment of their needs at free safety. With the addition of Harvin and Austin in the NFC West, which happened before the pick, the imperative to select a top notch cover corner increased dramatically. Reid is a bit stiff in the hips, and I believe will have a difficult time with some of these roadrunners.

I love Reid's measurables, but as we saw with Mays, those numbers can be deceiving. We will soon see

Well, the niners disagree with you and seem to agree with me, as for Reid stiffness I don't think so and comparing him with Mays, you forget that Baalke absolutely hated and did not want that pick and would not have made that pick if Singletary knew his place (and that was his ability to judge talent and who would make it to the NFL is nil). Baalke, now if Reid is like Mays, I can not see him not knowing, since he knew the first time and making the same mistake. Plus if you watched football like you said, listened to the after draft chatter that year, Mays was pissed at Carrol, Mays was asked to play in the box, and never really was asked to cover. When he did not play in the box he played way back as if playing prevent def., go watch the USC games again. Then when he had to play closer and tighter in the nfl he could not. Reid was not asked to play like that he was way better schooled. Reids dropoff in play can be attributed to less talented corners and not being able to just roam and sneak in, but cover the less talented cb's mistake compared to the corners he had the previous years.

As for need we did need a safety, who was going to play FS? Dahl? Please...as for cyp, now that guy was stiff. You get a guy like Ed Reed makes a difference. Plus if know football you should know he will not be asked to be (reid) the primary cover guy against slot receivers and guys like Harvin and Austin. If not doubling up on a wr, he will roam, or cover the te or help put a cap on the big speedy wr. The niners went after pass rushers because they know that the less time you give a QB the less time he can chose who to throw it too. Reid will be asked to be centerfielder to protect against any missed press, he has the range. Those a corner was not imperative.
Maddog is spot on with the Reid pick for a number of reasons.

Although, I don't believe the trade and pick were made out of "desperation" I do think it was simply wrong. The analysis of the player by our FO is wrong, where they drafted him was way too high and to make it worse the player we took at 18 was wrong.

Like maddog when the trade happened I thought we were trading up for Eifert. He was the only guy worth trading up for IMO (maybe Floyd too), and if we had taken Eifert the entire league would have $hit their pants.

Despite the Autin hysteria, Eifert will go down as the best offensive player in this entire draft.

TE was one of three positions of huge need for us and IMO none of the safeties in this draft were worthy of first round selection.

Frankly, there will be no difference in impact on a team between McDonald taken by the Rams in the 3rd and Reid.

But, everyone bemoaning the pick, including myself, hopes to be wrong...but I doubt it (see, A.J. Jenkins pick last year.