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MadDog's 2013 NFL Draft Review

Originally posted by 9erfan4life:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Another exciting draft weekend has come and gone, and now....a little more than 51 weeks before we do it all over again. Yikes!

The Niners had 13 selections, used 11 and stockpiled a third rounder for next year, to no one's surprise. The question is, "How did they do with their 11 selections?" While every person has their own interpretation of a "good" draft, to me, it is a combination of matching the best player with a specific need and at an acceptable slot. When the top need matches the top player at a top value location, it is nirvana...which rarely happens. With all of this in mind, here is my breakdown of the Niners' selections.

1 Eric Reid, 18th overall. The Niners needed to sacrifice a third rounder to jump up 13 slots to select Reid. To me, this was a selection out of desperation more than of true value. Reid was not a "reach" at 18, because some teams following the 18th slot were probably in position to draft him (Bengals more than likely). The issue is that he is not the 18th best player in this draft. In fact, I don't think he is close to the 18th best player in the draft. Now, three picks before Reid was selected, the Saints grabbed Kenny Vacarro, who I believe is FAR superior to Reid. So, this was not a good value pick. Is Reid a bad player? No. Is he worth the 18th overall, a big NO! The NIners gambled with Goldson over the last couple of years, and while they won in the past with his contract, this time the time was up. So, the cheaper route was a draftee. Reid regressed in 2012, and that should concern fans. He was not nearly the same player as the year before. He has all the physical and mental tools to become a great pro, but to me, lack something to be consistently great. Some might label it inconsistent instincts, some might call it stiff hips, I call it a move to strong safety in a couple years.

If the team if moving up to 18, get a player than matches the value. The pick should have been Tyler Eifert, who is going to be a stud in the NFL. Maybe the Bengals should send a Thank You card to the Niners for Christmas. The Niners obviously saw need at TE, as they selected McDonald 37 picks later. They should have picked up the best player on the board at that point, Eifert.

Grade for Reid: C- grade. Good player, not great, poor value, and lost opportunity and sacrificed third rounder. For the record, I did not advocate moving up. In fact, as I will show later, I held tight across all 13 picks.

2. Tank Carradine, 40th overall. Trent making the Dog a happy camper, as Carradine was the best player on the board at 40. Obviously will assume the role that J. Smith plays down the road. Just a beast all around, with a wide array of moves to get to the QB. Very impressive strength and speed combo, and is extremely determined to get on the field as soon as possible. Can't wait to see him develop as a pro. Will need to stack on about 10-15 pounds to handle the pounding that a 34 base DE takes, but in the meantime can either rush from the outside on passing downs, or inside next to Smith. Dropping down six slot and picking up extra compensation adds extra value.

Grade for Carradine: A.

2. Vance McDonald, 55th overall. Extremely athletic TE, with big upside. Outstanding combination of size, speed, strength. Still raw at TE. Reminds me a lot of James Casey. McDonald was the number 4 TE on my board after Eifert, Kelce and Ertz. Hands can be suspicious at times, and he will need to work on concentrating on catching the ball cleaner at the pro level. Should be a concern that, like Reid, he performed better statistically earlier in his career. Only 2 TD's in 2012 compared to 8 in 2010. I like the player, but assign him a slightly lower grade. To me, in a deep draft, he is more an early-mid third round value. The team really needed some CB or NT help by this point, in my opinion, and there were very talented guys on the board that could have been a better value pick in this slot. Since the team felt the need to move up six slots, and sacrifice another pick once again, it should be for a game changer, difference maker. I don't see that in McDonald. Could have picked Kelce at 61, one pick before the Chiefs nabbed him at 62.

Grade for McDonald: C+

3. Corey Lemonier, 88th overall. Lemonier is a long, athletic, 6'4" OLB with a quick first step and solid experience in the SEC for Auburn. Another very hard working player, with excellent determination and a relentless motor, he adds another edge rusher to the team. There is a lot to like from this kid. The downside is a siginificant drop in productivity on the back end of the 2012 season, as the competition became stiffer. For me, Lemonier is a bit of a one trick pony at rushing the QB. If he beats you to the edge, he's got you. However, if the OT gets his hands on him, he's done. Lemonier needs to work on counter moves if cannot beat the OT to the edge. Since this was another trade up, extra value is placed on it, as another draft choice will be used for compensation.

Grade for Lemonier: C+

4. Quinton Patton, 128th overall. He was the top guy left on my board for the team at the pick, so I saw great value and a need come into harmomic alignment, as with Carradine, with this pick. Patton was hyperproductive at Louisiana Tech, is very smooth on the field, and knows how to play the game. I saw him as second round value, so to pluck him in the fourth is a home run. Dare I say I graded him higher than the Niners' first rounder last year, AJ Jenkins. To me, he should surprise a lot of people with the productive career ahead.

Grade for Patton: A

4. Marcus Lattimore: 131st pick. A terrific football player, with great spirit and heart. The team could take a high risk player in Lattimore at this juncture with so many picks at their disposal. Why not roll the dice with a guy who could end up the best back in the draft? This is the positive spin on Lattimore. The reality is that Lattimore suffered a horrific injury, and while there are examples of RBs who return to form after major ACL surgery (Peterson, McGahee), most are not the same. Further, Lattimore has a lot of mileage on that body, even before the injury, as he has been taking big hits for four college years. He does not shrink from violent collisions, and that takes an extra toll. If I was a betting man, I'd say he won't end up the NFL player that I imagined when he tore up college football as a freshman. However, I wish the best for him.

Grade for Lattimore: B+

5. Quinton Dial, 157th overall. Dial is a very intriguing prospect. He has excellent size for a 34 DE, and played in a terrific program. He has a nasty streak about him. In fact, to me, he is one of the dirtier college football players. Some like that nasty streak, others see it as a sign of bad character. Honestly, I couldn't care less, as long as he is productive. Looking at his numbers, 40 total tackles in two years. To me, a bit on the low side. I look at a player like Kapron Lewis Moore who played the exact position as Dial, a 34DE, and see 40 tackles in 2012. To me, this would have been the better choice between the two players.

Grade for Dial: C

6, Nick Moody, 180th overall; 7. BJ Daniels, 237th overall; 7. Carter Bykowski, 246th; 7. Marcus Cooper, 252 overall
For the sake of brevity, I won't go into a long elaboration of the four late rounders. Let's be honest, all of these guys are going to be practice Squaders at best. I haven't read any of the 49ers write-ups post draft, but sure that Moody is shifting inside to ILB. He's a really good special teamer but nothing more. I'm guessing Daniels is also being moved to FB, TE, Hback. Good athlete, but a long shot to even make the PS in my opinion. Bykowski was selected to gain the Polish-American community, and Marcus Cooper was selected because every other back seven defender on Rutgers' squad was selected and we didn't want him to feel left out. I hope they didn't base their opinion on him due to the forty times posted at Rutgers. That track is so fast, my granny can run a forty in 4.55.

Grade for the collective bunch of late rounders: C...does it even matter?

Overall, I give the team a B- grade for the draft. I do rate it as a top 10 draft this year, but it could have been so much more. Got to hand it to Baalke for stockpiling picks this season and grabbing an extra third rounder next year. At the same time, if Justin Hunter blows up the league, and Carradine does not, we will look back at that number 34 pick and scream for the heavens.

As chronicled in the ongoing Draft Discussion Thread, and my Resetting the Board for Day Three thread, here was my 13 selections at the time of the selection. It will be fun to compare over the years.

31. Tank Carradine-DE
34. Justin Hunter- WR
61. Jesse Williams-NT/DE
74. BW Webb-CB
93. Phillip Thomas-S
128. Quinton Patton-WR
131. Cornelius Washington-OLB
157. Josh Evans-S
173. David Quessenberry-OT/G
180. Rex Burkhead-RB
237. Reid Fragel-OT
246. Marcus Cromartie-CB
252. Lucas Reed-TE

I give myself an "A" grade...of course, these were my picks.

In wrapping up, let no one ever state that they get the draft. It is like reading the mind of a woman for guys....good luck. Just when you think you've got it all figure out, you realize you know nothing. Back to square one. That is the great joy of the draft, realizing that the impossible task of mastering it will never happen, but you want to so badly. For those fixated on draft grades, one special note. The Seahawks last year were roundly booed, heckled, jeered by professions and amateurs alike for their sophomoric attempt to make selections. In the end, Bruce Irvin, Bobby Wagner, and Russell Wilson ended up being sensational picks. So, while it is fun to assign grades at this point, history shows that it can go any direction.

31. Tank Carradine-DE > Drafted SF Rd 2 Pick Pick 40 (NFL Comparison Justin Tuck) -9
34. Justin Hunter- WR > Drafted TEN Rd 2 Pick 34 (NFL Comparison Roy Williams) =
61. Jesse Williams-NT/DE > Drafted SEA Rd 5 Pick 137 (NFL Comparison Sione Pouha) -76
74. BW Webb-CB > Drafted DAL Rd 4 Pick 114 (NFL Comparison Adam Jones) -40
93. Phillip Thomas-S > Drafted WAS Rd 4 Pick 119 (NFL Comparison Reggie Nelson) -26
128. Quinton Patton-WR > Drafted SF Rd 4 Pick 128 (NFL Comparison Reggie Wayne) =
131. Cornelius Washington-OLB > Drafted CHI Rd 6 Pick 188 (NFL Comparison Raheem Brock) -57
157. Josh Evans-S > Drafted JAX Rd 6 Pick 169 (NFL Comparison None) -12
173. David Quessenberry-OT/G > Drafted TEN Rd 6 Pick 176 (NFL Comparison Doug Free) -3
180. Rex Burkhead-RB > Drafted CIN Rd 6 Pick 190 (NFL Comparison Mewelde Moore) -10
237. Reid Fragel-OT > Drafted CIN Rd 7 Pick 240 (NFL Comparison Eric Winston) -3
246. Marcus Cromartie-CB > Not Drafted Signed SD via FA (NFL Comparison None) -8
252. Lucas Reed-TE > Not Drafted Signed DEN via FA (NFL Comparison None) -2
I give myself an "A" grade...of course, these were my picks.

They way I see it:

biggest team needs were S and TE that you don't address until the 4th and last pick ?

Teams other need WR if your planning Patton in the 4th I don't understand the 2nd round pick should have gone TE
roster is too stacked to go WR in the 2nd and 4th

Your biggest issue was moving up to take Reid and losing the 3rd round pick
yet you use a 3rd on a guy who falls 76 spots to the 5th and another who falls 40 spots to the 4th
reach
I'm sure those two will fit in nicely at SEA and DAL

team does not have room to draft 13 players why not trade up to get who you want
esp. when they ended up getting who you wanted in the 2nd anyway

bottom line:
didn't address team needs
zero value picks
reaching

basically you filled 3 spots DL, DB, WR with first 6 picks ?
I know you like to give yourself an A but I see a C- at best maybe a D

9ers filled all team needs with the first 5 picks DB, DE, TE, LB, WR
Grade B

I think this is a valid point. In a hypothetical draft where we had two 1sts, one 2nd, & two 3rds, MD's draft had us only taking 2 guys that were actually taken in the first 3 rounds.

That doesn't mean that they won't be good players, but it means that MD rated these players higher than the entire league did, not just Baalke. He might ultimately be right on these guys, but his opinion is the outlier here, as evidenced by where they were selected.
  • buck
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Originally posted by NinerG94:
I think maddog has been over this a million times. He's admitted to being off on Aldon's evaluation but in his defense I believe his guy was JJ Watt NOT Gabbert. Hard to fault the guy on that. JJ Watt is a beast and while this may be blasphemy here I think he's a better talent than Aldon. Granted by a very slim margin but damn he's pretty good!

I was responding to a statement by MD, a statement made in the last couple of days.

He said he did not miss on Smith. If

I posted his evaluation. In that evaluation, MD talked about Gabbert. Read it. It is a quote.

edit: If I remember correctly, Watt came up in redo draft. Watt is a great player; an incredible player.
I still think Aldon was the correct pick for the 49ers
[ Edited by buck on May 1, 2013 at 2:14 PM ]
Mad Dog, thanks for your hours and hours of research, thought and preparation. Kudos to AB on page one noting that we would have had two tight ends both in the big $$ range, plus we desperately needed a FS/CB to make up for loss of Goldson(who was NOT a favorite of mine). He tackled well, he covered well...but when the guy you are covering catches the pass, what good does it do to make the tackle?...and it happened a lot. So we needed FS way more than TE, a point I made long ago. As for vaccarro, my brother and I are HORN exes and die hard fans, and vacarro is going to be a big disappointment to his team in NFL. The point AB made about signings and $$ is one I think we all overlook(except AB), and was spot on for the Reid pick. No, I wouldn't want our #18 pick to be paid somewhat similar to vernon....if we are paying #18 kind of money, make it on our biggest area of need, FS. Thanks for the reminder, AB.

As an aside, I gave up picking players long ago when I realized there was no way I could read what 31 other teams secretly wanted, nor what they would do in trading up or down. Not an infinite # of choices, but darn close. Hence, I was 2 DLs, 1 FS, TE/WR and OT and out. I figured trent would use at least 5 picks to move up the other 5 slots (if indicated). I had no idea he would pick 11 guys. There, I think is where some waste came in. We already have stockpiled 3(?) picks for 2014 and I think have 2 , 3 or 4 comp picks. I thot at least 1/3 of our picks would go to moving up or stockpiling. So I completely misread what trent was doing, but am glad he decided against vacarro. Whether reid is a starter or not, we shall see, but i bet he will do just fine. I had us picking our second DL before TE so was surprised by that pick, but sounds like SEA had something to do with that. That said, I am very anxious to see what Vance McD has. Like everybody has said, it is easy to rate our 2010 pick.
Originally posted by mtminer:
A little off topic, but does anyone know which rookies won't be able to participate in certain OTA's, due to that graduating rule?

For the first time, Ohio State students will be able to participate. I presume it will be all the students who are still under the quarter system. OSU just switched to the semester system.
Here is a link to those colleges and universities:
http://www.planetbauer.com/colleges.htm
Originally posted by lamontb:
Exaclty he locked down Wes Welker as good as i've ever seen. Then a week later he was getting roasted by Doug Baldwin like he didn't even care.

Honestly, I don't think any of the existing corners will be on our roster in two-three years. Rogers, Brown, Nnamdi, and maybe even Culliver. This is going to be a project for years, turning over the secondary.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Hunter's my favorite for biggest bust of this NFL draft. Just not convinced that he'll have success that next level, great physical traits, but football-wise, he carries the same traits as many previous WR busts.

We part on Hunter. I think Patterson is the bust in waiting. Comparing the two in college, Hunter was the star, was so much more productive. I see this trend continuing in the NFL.

All of that being said, I am the least comfortable at analyzing WRs more than any other position. To me, it is witchcraft trying to figure out which guys make it or not. I feel much more comfortable projecting the big guys.

Interesting point. Evaluators, like teams, have certain positions they excel at. Sometimes people know what stats to look for, and that's worthless with O-lineman, or just have an eye for a position. Your record with O-line has been very good for what I recall. But that's also where you and Baalke seem to agree quite often. I remember you having both Davis and Iupati ranked very high. Scotty McC was awful with big men. And Seattle isn't great there either. Seattle doesn't seem to miss with anyone in the secondary, and SF is that way with LBs. NE is excellent w/ LBs, DL and OL, but can't find a WR or CB to save their life. Ozzie is awesome on defense, but struggled with WRs his entire career. At this point Ozzie and Ted Thompson seem to succeed with everything. Interesting to see how well Baalke drafts certain positions. Seems to have a nice eye for pass rush, LB, OL, and RB. Haven't seen a ton of luck w/ WR and secondary yet. But it's still a small sample size for him for all positions.
Originally posted by jreff22:
Originally posted by SofaKing:
Haha..I know I'm being Cpt. Obvious here. I just find it funny when people truly believe they know better than Baalke, especially with his strong draft record. There is a reason we've built the most talented roster in the league.

up to this draft he had only had 2 classes to his name....and last years sucked

He had 3 classes to his name, starting in 2010.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by lamontb:
Exaclty he locked down Wes Welker as good as i've ever seen. Then a week later he was getting roasted by Doug Baldwin like he didn't even care.

Honestly, I don't think any of the existing corners will be on our roster in two-three years. Rogers, Brown, Nnamdi, and maybe even Culliver. This is going to be a project for years, turning over the secondary.

You'd be surprised. A team can fix a position very quickly. Especially with few holes in other places. Next year is a deep CB year
  • buck
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Originally posted by jreff22:
up to this draft he had only had 2 classes to his name....and last years sucked

Think you made a mistake. This Baalke's fourth draft.

2010--B to A range
2011--looks solid B+ to A
2012--looks bad
2013--we do not have a clue.

Still have to wait at least one more year before concluding that last years sucked.
But, yeah it looks bad.
  • Nuns
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Originally posted by NinerG94:
Originally posted by buck:
I do not agree. I think you missed, and by far on Smith.

Well, at least that is my take, and if I remember correctly you have acknowledged that you missed on your evaluation of him.

I thought this discussion had ended. But, my memory could be, and often is, faulty.

Here is your draft evaluation of Smith. Do you still argue that you did not miss?


First Round- Aldon Smith- C grade

"Smith was the best OLB left on the board when the Niners selected. He does present a need for the team. However, the team intended on selecting a QB along the way, and missed on grabbing the best one in the draft, Blaine Gabbert. Instead, the team selected Colin Kaepernick, who may not be the best fit for the WCO.

As for Smith, he is a good straight ahead rush backer. At the same time, he is not an elite athlete, which is what you want from a guy this high on the board. Smith's shuttle numbers at the combine, which show change of direction skills, was amongst the worst for the DE class. He only pressed the bar 20 times, which is not horrible for a guy with a long wingspan, but still mediocre. Smith's long jump, which measures explosiveness, was average, and his cone time was poor.

So, while he posted good numbers at Missouri, and certainly has a big upside, the current Smith is not an elite Smith, and to me, too risky for the 7th overall. Can he be great? Maybe. But, once again, the team is not drafting in the 15th, or 20th, or 25th spot. This is the 7th overall. Just not good value."

You gave him a C. Clearly, he was a A.

You claimed he was not a good value at 7. He was a good value at 7.

You seem to imply that the team should have taken Blaine Gabbert instead of Aldon.

Based upon two years of play by both players, we should not have taken Gabbert with 7.

Again, like I said, I had thought before reading the above quoted response that you had conceded that you had missed on Aldon Smith.


I think maddog has been over this a million times. He's admitted to being off on Aldon's evaluation but in his defense I believe his guy was JJ Watt NOT Gabbert. Hard to fault the guy on that. JJ Watt is a beast and while this may be blasphemy here I think he's a better talent than Aldon. Granted by a very slim margin but damn he's pretty good!

It's impossible to predict the future, but this is pretty funny. Calling Gabbert the best QB in the draft and labelling Colin a poor fit. Kudos to having a strong opinion and sticking with it though.
Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
Mad Dog, thanks for your hours and hours of research, thought and preparation. Kudos to AB on page one noting that we would have had two tight ends both in the big $$ range, plus we desperately needed a FS/CB to make up for loss of Goldson(who was NOT a favorite of mine). He tackled well, he covered well...but when the guy you are covering catches the pass, what good does it do to make the tackle?...and it happened a lot. So we needed FS way more than TE, a point I made long ago. As for vaccarro, my brother and I are HORN exes and die hard fans, and vacarro is going to be a big disappointment to his team in NFL. The point AB made about signings and $$ is one I think we all overlook(except AB), and was spot on for the Reid pick. No, I wouldn't want our #18 pick to be paid somewhat similar to vernon....if we are paying #18 kind of money, make it on our biggest area of need, FS. Thanks for the reminder, AB.

As an aside, I gave up picking players long ago when I realized there was no way I could read what 31 other teams secretly wanted, nor what they would do in trading up or down. Not an infinite # of choices, but darn close. Hence, I was 2 DLs, 1 FS, TE/WR and OT and out. I figured trent would use at least 5 picks to move up the other 5 slots (if indicated). I had no idea he would pick 11 guys. There, I think is where some waste came in. We already have stockpiled 3(?) picks for 2014 and I think have 2 , 3 or 4 comp picks. I thot at least 1/3 of our picks would go to moving up or stockpiling. So I completely misread what trent was doing, but am glad he decided against vacarro. Whether reid is a starter or not, we shall see, but i bet he will do just fine. I had us picking our second DL before TE so was surprised by that pick, but sounds like SEA had something to do with that. That said, I am very anxious to see what Vance McD has. Like everybody has said, it is easy to rate our 2010 pick.

Hare are the contract details for the 18th pick in last year's draft, Melvin Ingram. Reid's contract should be similar, and I don't think it would have been outrageous to pay Eifert this much:

5/8/2012: Signed a four-year, $8.39 million contract. The deal contains $7.61 million guaranteed, including a $4.548 million signing bonus.
2012: $390,000
2013: $771,738
2014: $1,153,476
2015: $785,214,
2016: Free Agent

The cap hit in 2012 was $1.5 million and would max at $2.6 million in 2015 of the team elected to keep him on the roster (750k subtracted if not)

Get the best players, and deal with the cap in other ways. You don't want to pass on a future star in order to fill a need or because it looks more beneficial to the salary cap.
Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
You'd be surprised. A team can fix a position very quickly. Especially with few holes in other places. Next year is a deep CB year

Agreed that next year looks good for CBs. I just think the team needed to manuever quicker, this year, to address the rabbits the NFC have added in Harvin and Austin. On paper, Nnamdi looks like a good pick up. But, ask the Eagle fans who watched him last year. He struggled big time. And, Reid has some coverage liabilities. I don't see an upgrade in the secondary to match the upgrade in the NFC West WR corp.
Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
Interesting point. Evaluators, like teams, have certain positions they excel at. Sometimes people know what stats to look for, and that's worthless with O-lineman, or just have an eye for a position. Your record with O-line has been very good for what I recall. But that's also where you and Baalke seem to agree quite often. I remember you having both Davis and Iupati ranked very high. Scotty McC was awful with big men. And Seattle isn't great there either. Seattle doesn't seem to miss with anyone in the secondary, and SF is that way with LBs. NE is excellent w/ LBs, DL and OL, but can't find a WR or CB to save their life. Ozzie is awesome on defense, but struggled with WRs his entire career. At this point Ozzie and Ted Thompson seem to succeed with everything. Interesting to see how well Baalke drafts certain positions. Seems to have a nice eye for pass rush, LB, OL, and RB. Haven't seen a ton of luck w/ WR and secondary yet. But it's still a small sample size for him for all positions.

I had Iupati as the 8th best overall player on my board and Davis as the 12th best. I have Jonathan Cooper number one this year, and we will be seeing a lot of him in the future. Arizona made a great call not to panic and draft Fluker. Stick with the board.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
You'd be surprised. A team can fix a position very quickly. Especially with few holes in other places. Next year is a deep CB year

Agreed that next year looks good for CBs. I just think the team needed to manuever quicker, this year, to address the rabbits the NFC have added in Harvin and Austin. On paper, Nnamdi looks like a good pick up. But, ask the Eagle fans who watched him last year. He struggled big time. And, Reid has some coverage liabilities. I don't see an upgrade in the secondary to match the upgrade in the NFC West WR corp.

How would they go about maneuvering to improve their secondary while not drafting for need?
Originally posted by buck:
Originally posted by jreff22:
up to this draft he had only had 2 classes to his name....and last years sucked

Think you made a mistake. This Baalke's fourth draft.

2010--B to A range
2011--looks solid B+ to A
2012--looks bad
2013--we do not have a clue.

Still have to wait at least one more year before concluding that last years sucked.
But, yeah it looks bad.

2011 a B+ to A??? That is one of the best drafts I've ever seen. Plus they landed a franchise QB. Easy A+. The rest I agree. So far 2010 is B-A, 2012 is a D- and I like 2013, but clearly don't know
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