MadDog's 2013 NFL Draft Review

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by lamontb:
Exaclty he locked down Wes Welker as good as i've ever seen. Then a week later he was getting roasted by Doug Baldwin like he didn't even care.

Honestly, I don't think any of the existing corners will be on our roster in two-three years. Rogers, Brown, Nnamdi, and maybe even Culliver. This is going to be a project for years, turning over the secondary.

You'd be surprised. A team can fix a position very quickly. Especially with few holes in other places. Next year is a deep CB year

Originally posted by jreff22:
up to this draft he had only had 2 classes to his name....and last years sucked

Think you made a mistake. This Baalke's fourth draft.

2010--B to A range
2011--looks solid B+ to A
2012--looks bad
2013--we do not have a clue.

Still have to wait at least one more year before concluding that last years sucked.
But, yeah it looks bad.

Originally posted by NinerG94:

Originally posted by buck:
I do not agree. I think you missed, and by far on Smith.

Well, at least that is my take, and if I remember correctly you have acknowledged that you missed on your evaluation of him.

I thought this discussion had ended. But, my memory could be, and often is, faulty.

Here is your draft evaluation of Smith. Do you still argue that you did not miss?


First Round- Aldon Smith- C grade

"Smith was the best OLB left on the board when the Niners selected. He does present a need for the team. However, the team intended on selecting a QB along the way, and missed on grabbing the best one in the draft, Blaine Gabbert. Instead, the team selected Colin Kaepernick, who may not be the best fit for the WCO.

As for Smith, he is a good straight ahead rush backer. At the same time, he is not an elite athlete, which is what you want from a guy this high on the board. Smith's shuttle numbers at the combine, which show change of direction skills, was amongst the worst for the DE class. He only pressed the bar 20 times, which is not horrible for a guy with a long wingspan, but still mediocre. Smith's long jump, which measures explosiveness, was average, and his cone time was poor.

So, while he posted good numbers at Missouri, and certainly has a big upside, the current Smith is not an elite Smith, and to me, too risky for the 7th overall. Can he be great? Maybe. But, once again, the team is not drafting in the 15th, or 20th, or 25th spot. This is the 7th overall. Just not good value."

You gave him a C. Clearly, he was a A.

You claimed he was not a good value at 7. He was a good value at 7.

You seem to imply that the team should have taken Blaine Gabbert instead of Aldon.

Based upon two years of play by both players, we should not have taken Gabbert with 7.

Again, like I said, I had thought before reading the above quoted response that you had conceded that you had missed on Aldon Smith.

I think maddog has been over this a million times. He's admitted to being off on Aldon's evaluation but in his defense I believe his guy was JJ Watt NOT Gabbert. Hard to fault the guy on that. JJ Watt is a beast and while this may be blasphemy here I think he's a better talent than Aldon. Granted by a very slim margin but damn he's pretty good!

It's impossible to predict the future, but this is pretty funny. Calling Gabbert the best QB in the draft and labelling Colin a poor fit. Kudos to having a strong opinion and sticking with it though.

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
Mad Dog, thanks for your hours and hours of research, thought and preparation. Kudos to AB on page one noting that we would have had two tight ends both in the big $$ range, plus we desperately needed a FS/CB to make up for loss of Goldson(who was NOT a favorite of mine). He tackled well, he covered well...but when the guy you are covering catches the pass, what good does it do to make the tackle?...and it happened a lot. So we needed FS way more than TE, a point I made long ago. As for vaccarro, my brother and I are HORN exes and die hard fans, and vacarro is going to be a big disappointment to his team in NFL. The point AB made about signings and $$ is one I think we all overlook(except AB), and was spot on for the Reid pick. No, I wouldn't want our #18 pick to be paid somewhat similar to vernon....if we are paying #18 kind of money, make it on our biggest area of need, FS. Thanks for the reminder, AB.

As an aside, I gave up picking players long ago when I realized there was no way I could read what 31 other teams secretly wanted, nor what they would do in trading up or down. Not an infinite # of choices, but darn close. Hence, I was 2 DLs, 1 FS, TE/WR and OT and out. I figured trent would use at least 5 picks to move up the other 5 slots (if indicated). I had no idea he would pick 11 guys. There, I think is where some waste came in. We already have stockpiled 3(?) picks for 2014 and I think have 2 , 3 or 4 comp picks. I thot at least 1/3 of our picks would go to moving up or stockpiling. So I completely misread what trent was doing, but am glad he decided against vacarro. Whether reid is a starter or not, we shall see, but i bet he will do just fine. I had us picking our second DL before TE so was surprised by that pick, but sounds like SEA had something to do with that. That said, I am very anxious to see what Vance McD has. Like everybody has said, it is easy to rate our 2010 pick.

Hare are the contract details for the 18th pick in last year's draft, Melvin Ingram. Reid's contract should be similar, and I don't think it would have been outrageous to pay Eifert this much:

5/8/2012: Signed a four-year, $8.39 million contract. The deal contains $7.61 million guaranteed, including a $4.548 million signing bonus.
2012: $390,000
2013: $771,738
2014: $1,153,476
2015: $785,214,
2016: Free Agent

The cap hit in 2012 was $1.5 million and would max at $2.6 million in 2015 of the team elected to keep him on the roster (750k subtracted if not)

Get the best players, and deal with the cap in other ways. You don't want to pass on a future star in order to fill a need or because it looks more beneficial to the salary cap.

Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
You'd be surprised. A team can fix a position very quickly. Especially with few holes in other places. Next year is a deep CB year

Agreed that next year looks good for CBs. I just think the team needed to manuever quicker, this year, to address the rabbits the NFC have added in Harvin and Austin. On paper, Nnamdi looks like a good pick up. But, ask the Eagle fans who watched him last year. He struggled big time. And, Reid has some coverage liabilities. I don't see an upgrade in the secondary to match the upgrade in the NFC West WR corp.

Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
Interesting point. Evaluators, like teams, have certain positions they excel at. Sometimes people know what stats to look for, and that's worthless with O-lineman, or just have an eye for a position. Your record with O-line has been very good for what I recall. But that's also where you and Baalke seem to agree quite often. I remember you having both Davis and Iupati ranked very high. Scotty McC was awful with big men. And Seattle isn't great there either. Seattle doesn't seem to miss with anyone in the secondary, and SF is that way with LBs. NE is excellent w/ LBs, DL and OL, but can't find a WR or CB to save their life. Ozzie is awesome on defense, but struggled with WRs his entire career. At this point Ozzie and Ted Thompson seem to succeed with everything. Interesting to see how well Baalke drafts certain positions. Seems to have a nice eye for pass rush, LB, OL, and RB. Haven't seen a ton of luck w/ WR and secondary yet. But it's still a small sample size for him for all positions.

I had Iupati as the 8th best overall player on my board and Davis as the 12th best. I have Jonathan Cooper number one this year, and we will be seeing a lot of him in the future. Arizona made a great call not to panic and draft Fluker. Stick with the board.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
You'd be surprised. A team can fix a position very quickly. Especially with few holes in other places. Next year is a deep CB year

Agreed that next year looks good for CBs. I just think the team needed to manuever quicker, this year, to address the rabbits the NFC have added in Harvin and Austin. On paper, Nnamdi looks like a good pick up. But, ask the Eagle fans who watched him last year. He struggled big time. And, Reid has some coverage liabilities. I don't see an upgrade in the secondary to match the upgrade in the NFC West WR corp.

How would they go about maneuvering to improve their secondary while not drafting for need?

Originally posted by buck:

Originally posted by jreff22:
up to this draft he had only had 2 classes to his name....and last years sucked

Think you made a mistake. This Baalke's fourth draft.

2010--B to A range
2011--looks solid B+ to A
2012--looks bad
2013--we do not have a clue.

Still have to wait at least one more year before concluding that last years sucked.
But, yeah it looks bad.

2011 a B+ to A??? That is one of the best drafts I've ever seen. Plus they landed a franchise QB. Easy A+. The rest I agree. So far 2010 is B-A, 2012 is a D- and I like 2013, but clearly don't know

Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:

Originally posted by buck:

Originally posted by jreff22:
up to this draft he had only had 2 classes to his name....and last years sucked

Think you made a mistake. This Baalke's fourth draft.

2010--B to A range
2011--looks solid B+ to A
2012--looks bad
2013--we do not have a clue.

Still have to wait at least one more year before concluding that last years sucked.
But, yeah it looks bad.

2011 a B+ to A??? That is one of the best drafts I've ever seen. Plus they landed a franchise QB. Easy A+. The rest I agree. So far 2010 is B-A, 2012 is a D- and I like 2013, but clearly don't know

Franchise QB and franchise pass rusher, considered the #1 and #2 "core" positions in football.

MD - For the record, you and I had quite a difference of opinion on which round we thought Cornelieus Washington would be drafted. I believe you said the 3rd round? My initial prediction was the 5th round. Just saying...

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2013/profiles/cornelius-washington?id=2539232

So you were both wrong then.

Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:

Originally posted by buck:

Originally posted by jreff22:
up to this draft he had only had 2 classes to his name....and last years sucked

Think you made a mistake. This Baalke's fourth draft.

2010--B to A range
2011--looks solid B+ to A
2012--looks bad
2013--we do not have a clue.

Still have to wait at least one more year before concluding that last years sucked.
But, yeah it looks bad.

2011 a B+ to A??? That is one of the best drafts I've ever seen. Plus they landed a franchise QB. Easy A+. The rest I agree. So far 2010 is B-A, 2012 is a D- and I like 2013, but clearly don't know

Yeah, you are right about the 2011 draft.

But, I still think that we have wait one more year, maybe two to grade the 2012 draft. But, you are not far off based upon what has happened so far.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
Mad Dog, thanks for your hours and hours of research, thought and preparation. Kudos to AB on page one noting that we would have had two tight ends both in the big $$ range, plus we desperately needed a FS/CB to make up for loss of Goldson(who was NOT a favorite of mine). He tackled well, he covered well...but when the guy you are covering catches the pass, what good does it do to make the tackle?...and it happened a lot. So we needed FS way more than TE, a point I made long ago. As for vaccarro, my brother and I are HORN exes and die hard fans, and vacarro is going to be a big disappointment to his team in NFL. The point AB made about signings and $$ is one I think we all overlook(except AB), and was spot on for the Reid pick. No, I wouldn't want our #18 pick to be paid somewhat similar to vernon....if we are paying #18 kind of money, make it on our biggest area of need, FS. Thanks for the reminder, AB.

As an aside, I gave up picking players long ago when I realized there was no way I could read what 31 other teams secretly wanted, nor what they would do in trading up or down. Not an infinite # of choices, but darn close. Hence, I was 2 DLs, 1 FS, TE/WR and OT and out. I figured trent would use at least 5 picks to move up the other 5 slots (if indicated). I had no idea he would pick 11 guys. There, I think is where some waste came in. We already have stockpiled 3(?) picks for 2014 and I think have 2 , 3 or 4 comp picks. I thot at least 1/3 of our picks would go to moving up or stockpiling. So I completely misread what trent was doing, but am glad he decided against vacarro. Whether reid is a starter or not, we shall see, but i bet he will do just fine. I had us picking our second DL before TE so was surprised by that pick, but sounds like SEA had something to do with that. That said, I am very anxious to see what Vance McD has. Like everybody has said, it is easy to rate our 2010 pick.

Hare are the contract details for the 18th pick in last year's draft, Melvin Ingram. Reid's contract should be similar, and I don't think it would have been outrageous to pay Eifert this much:

5/8/2012: Signed a four-year, $8.39 million contract. The deal contains $7.61 million guaranteed, including a $4.548 million signing bonus.
2012: $390,000
2013: $771,738
2014: $1,153,476
2015: $785,214,
2016: Free Agent

The cap hit in 2012 was $1.5 million and would max at $2.6 million in 2015 of the team elected to keep him on the roster (750k subtracted if not)

Get the best players, and deal with the cap in other ways. You don't want to pass on a future star in order to fill a need or because it looks more beneficial to the salary cap.

i look at the value of the pick a bit differently---eifert as the niners 2nd tight end would probably play about the same number of snaps as delanie walker did--iirc it was about 60% of the snaps....reid would play about the same # of snaps as goldson did, which i would estimate to be about 90% of the snaps or more...reid has more value from such a perspective

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
5. Quinton Dial, 157th overall. Dial is a very intriguing prospect. He has excellent size for a 34 DE, and played in a terrific program. He has a nasty streak about him. In fact, to me, he is one of the dirtier college football players. Some like that nasty streak, others see it as a sign of bad character. Honestly, I couldn't care less, as long as he is productive. Looking at his numbers, 40 total tackles in two years. To me, a bit on the low side. I look at a player like Kapron Lewis Moore who played the exact position as Dial, a 34DE, and see 40 tackles in 2012. To me, this would have been the better choice between the two players.

Actually it is 46 tackles and he had 20 solo tackles compared to 17 for your 32nd rated player Jesse Williams. Maybe the #s are why Jesse Williams wasnt drafted where you thought he should go but fell to the 5th.

I checked the career stats for Quinton Dial and Jessie Williams at NCAA site and College Football Stats site.

There is a difference between the two sites for the stats for Quinton Dial.

The NCAA site has him playing in 25 games and credits him with 46 tackles (20 solo and 26 assists).

The College Football site has him playing in 24 games and credits him with 40 tackles (17 solo and 23 assists)

Both sites have Jessie Williams playing in 26 games and credit him with 61 tackles (17 solo and 44 assists).

edit: The Alabama web site stats match the stats from the NCAA site.
So, I would conclude that Dial played in 25 games and had 46 tackles (20 solo and 26 assists).

Their other stats are the same for the two sites.

Sacks Dial--2.5 Williams—1.5

TFL Dial—8 Williams-- 6.5

QBH Dial—5 Williams—8

PBU Dial—0 Williams--3

Hope this helps.

http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/mainpage.jsp?year=2012

http://www.cfbstats.com/

Here is an article that criticizes the 49ers first and second round picks. If we are trading up, they liked Eifert at 18. Or, stand pat and take Cyprien at 31 and Hunter at 34.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1624956-san-francisco-49ers-4-key-prospects-the-team-passed-over-in-the-2013-nfl-draft

Thought you would enjoy it, MD!

BTW, kudos to all the participants of this thread. It is one of the more thoughtful threads in the draft forum. Love how much factual data people are using to back their assertions.