There are 113 users in the forums

Remember
Not a member? Register Now!

MadDog's 2013 NFL Draft Review

If I ever need reason to doubt Maddog, I just remember Adam Carriker.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
I am pasting my draft from the past few years. This was embedded inside the Draft War Room Thread About Baalke and Harbaugh drafting ability.

Here was my last three drafts based on my board and team needs at each pick:2010 NFL Draft
1. Iupati (I graded him as the eighth best player in the draft...probably too low).
1. Dez Bryant
2. Morgan Burnett
3. Owusu-Ansah
6. Doug Worthington
6. Cody Davis
6. Jeff Owens
7. Dorin Dickerson

2011 NFL Draft: Here were my post draft notes I posted in the "Redo" thread (I did not trade for Kaepernick in this draft)
1- JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin Simply the best player on the board at the time. Since Franklin appears to be leaving, moving Soap to NT would necessitate a new DE to take over right away.
2- Rodney Hudson, G/C, Florida State I think Hudson is the best OL in the entire draft, and is a starter at guard or center.
3- Curtis Brown, CB, Texas The team needs a cover corner, and Brown has size and speed.
4- Jordan Todman, RB, UConn I graded Todman just slightly over Hunter, who I really like as well. Both are great value picks at this point.
4- Marcus Cannon, G, TCU Since the Niners have a second fourth rounder, this can be a luxury pick. I'd burn it on a risk. Cannon is a starter at guard some time in the future if he can survive cancer and regain his strength. Worth the risk in the fourth round.
5- Tyrod Taylor, QB, Virginia Tech The Niners need QB depth, and while no one expects Taylor to be a future starter, he can be a solid backup if the starter goes down for a short time.
6- Charles Clay, FB, Tulsa A FB who can run and catch the ball. Sounds like a WCO fullback to me.
6- Justin Rogers, CB, Richmond Team needs a second corner in this draft, and Rogers had a terrific career and offseason.
6- Jerrell Powe, NT, Mississippi Simply a backup, toilet clogger. Every 3-4 team needs one.
7- Ugo Chinasa, OLB, Oklahoma St Was not drafted, but a quick, strong guy who could develop into a nice role player.
7- Jeron Johnson, S, Boise St Also not drafted, but a talented, fast guy who has a ton of experience.
7- Dane Sanzenbacher, WR, Ohio St Competition for Williams in the slot. Sanzenbacher was a seriously clutch WR for the Buckeyes.

2012 NFL Draft
1. Peter Konz
2. Mohammed Sanu
4. Malik Jackson
5. Vick Ballard
6. Antonio Allen
6. Not sure- don't have my notes here at work
7. Not sure- don't have my notes here at work

Recap analysis: I loved my first three picks in 2010. The rest have done little to nothing. In 2011, I hit the jackpot with Watt, but probably blew it with Kaepernick (I had faith in Harbaugh and Smith). I do love my fourth rounders through seventh from Cannon through Sanzenbacher. Missed on Hunter, but hit very well on Cannon, Taylor, Rogers, and especially Johnson, who has been terrific for the Seahawks. In 2012, I believe my draft will hold up well with Konz, Sanu and a studly Ballard leading the way. Once again, you hope to hit on as many as possible and some years turn out better than others.

People can debate the 2010 class, but I would probably give a slight nod to Baalke (The outstanding Bowman pick in the third made up for the disasterous pick of Mays), but I think Iupati, Bryant and Burnett made a strong draft class for me.

I think it is pretty obvious that Baalke's 2011 draft class beat mine so far (this class was a grand slam for him), even though I thought I performed much better than the street with Watt anchoring this class. The entire class made an NFL roster in 2011, except for Chinasa, and I love Jeron Johnson late in the 7th. He is a very good player for the Seahawks. Hudson has a ton of potential, but his injury killed off 2012. He will the man delivering to Alex Smith this year.

Based on the 2012 class, I think my draft is superior to far superior over Baalke's so far. Konz played almost the entire year, and will start this year at center. Mohammed, before going out with injury, had 4 TD's in his last three games. And, Vick Ballard was a monster, better than any selection from Baalke's 2012 class.

i see baalke dominated you in 2010 and 2011 and 2012 is too early to tell. you clearly disagree but 2010 he absolutely crushed you...he got bowman/kyle williams/dixon/ and Anthony Davis...we can debate if dez/burnett is better than bowman/anthony davis...i'm taking baalke's hits on those 2, 2011 its not even close as well.

i commend your effort but baalke has you beat for a reason, he's a pro
Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
MD, how did everyone and their mother miss on Geno Atkins that year? Big school, good production, size, measurables etc.

Don't know. Sometimes players slip through the cracks, but the league should have seen a monster in the making. Any time a player aces the Senior Bowl and combine, which he did, you have to take notice. To me, Atkins should have finished second in the DPOY. He was brilliant this year.
Originally posted by iLL49er:
i see baalke dominated you in 2010 and 2011 and 2012 is too early to tell. you clearly disagree but 2010 he absolutely crushed you...he got bowman/kyle williams/dixon/ and Anthony Davis...we can debate if dez/burnett is better than bowman/anthony davis...i'm taking baalke's hits on those 2, 2011 its not even close as well.

i commend your effort but baalke has you beat for a reason, he's a pro

Much too early for anyone to claim victory, although I think my draft class in 2012 will have at least three long term starters in Konz, Sanu and Ballard. I am not sure any player from Baalke's draft class will be a starter for more than a handful of games in their NFL career.
Hey MD, thoughts on raw pass rushers? You missed on Aldon and JPP, and Ansah barely cracked your top 50 this year (TBD on him, of course).
Originally posted by dhp318:
If I ever need reason to doubt Maddog, I just remember Adam Carriker.

If you want to Hesd that direction, it is a slippery slope, since the two players selected after AJ Jenkins and LaMichsel James last year were....Doug Martin and Casey Hayward. Let me rephrase your statement to...

If I ever need a reason to doubt Baalke, I just remember Jenkins and James.

Everyone misses, even Baalke.
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Hey MD, thoughts on raw pass rushers? You missed on Aldon and JPP, and Ansah barely cracked your top 50 this year (TBD on him, of course).

Didn't miss on Smith. He was my second ranked OLB after Miller. I didn't see his value at 7, thus the grade I posted at that time.
I think MD is one of the best resources out there, honestly. One on end of the spectrum you have the big name guys like Kiper, McShay, and Mayock. They can be fun to listen to during the draft, but honestly they don't put out much content in the weeks prior. Putting aside hit/miss ratio (and on that count I tend to trust MD when he says he stacks up well against the experts), MD is on of the main reasons this Draft War Room is a more enjoyable pre-draft resource than ESPN, CBS, NFL.com, Bleacher Report, Walter Football, etc. etc.

MD, you should put out more content too. I feel like you probably have a BPA board up to 100 or 200 in your files, and yet you only give us 50. You could also write up little scouting reports (just a couple paragraphs each) that rival the ones on CBS and NFL.com that I relied on this year.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Hey MD, thoughts on raw pass rushers? You missed on Aldon and JPP, and Ansah barely cracked your top 50 this year (TBD on him, of course).

Didn't miss on Smith. He was my second ranked OLB after Miller. I didn't see his value at 7, thus the grade I posted at that time.

Fair enough. I'm in your corner.

Putting Aldon aside I guess JPP and Ansah are more comparable. I am just curious if seeing JPP become a star despite being so inexperienced tempted you to give Ansah the benefit of the doubt, or what the reasons are you think Ansah is a likely bust.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
If you want to Hesd that direction, it is a slippery slope, since the two players selected after AJ Jenkins and LaMichsel James last year were....Doug Martin and Casey Hayward. Let me rephrase your statement to...

If I ever need a reason to doubt Baalke, I just remember Jenkins and James.

Everyone misses, even Baalke.

I think you took my post too seriously
Every year, I learn as much from MD's amateur efforts to educate us on the draft as from professional commentators who get paid to do the same job. Thanks MD! And kudos for standing by your picks when Baalke does something different.

We all agree that grading a just completed draft is a fool's errand, but we do it anyway because training camp doesn't even start for a couple of months.

An assumption that MD makes in submitting his picks is no trading. As a pre-draft predictor you have to do this otherwise there are so many variations in the actual draft order (with trades) that there is no longer a basis for comparison between mock A and mock B. If you want to have a conversation about who to pick where, the only way to have that conversation is to assume no trading.

But we all know that the actual draft is full of trades. When MD compares his static picks to Baalke's dynamic picks (with trades), you have an apples to oranges comparison.

Consider Baalke trading up 6 spots, right in front of Seattle, to pick Vance McDonald TE. If you watch the NFL draft live feed, while waiting for the 55th selection, Chris Berman says that there have been a couple of trades at 55. The 49ers move up and select Vance McDonald, and Seattle trades down from pick 56. It was the speed with which Seattle traded down that caught my eye. Seattle wasn't even on the clock yet, at 56.

Seattle was also looking for a TE. In fact, Seattle drafted McDonald's teammate at Rice, Luke Willson, in the 5th round:
http://q13fox.com/2013/04/27/seahawks-2013-draft-rewind/#ixzz2S0QEOYen

While I'm not privy to either Seattle's or the 49er's war rooms, it looks to me like Baalke anticipated that Seattle might take McDonald at 56. And the "proof" is the fact that Seattle traded out of 56 before their time on the clock began. Both Seattle and the 49ers were scouting Rice TEs, so they likely noticed each others interests. Perhaps Seattle had Luke Wilson graded higher than Vance McDonald, but that isn't likely using MD's Big Board (Luke Wilson isn't on MD's Big Board.)

From MD's perspective, trading for Vance McDonald wastes a pick and there was a player of higher value waiting for us at 61. From Baalke's perspective, Seattle and the 49ers liked McDonald, and Baalke had a 6th round pick to burn to get the top rated player on his board. And as an added bonus, perhaps deprive Seattle of TE that they had scouted. Hence the apples and oranges comparison with the inevitable disagreements of who should have been picked where.

Lastly, both Seattle and the 49ers have stacked rosters. If they stay healthy, they will meet each other in the NFC champions game. What are the odds that a 5th round or latter player will make the roster? Even with the average NFL roster, i'm guessing less than 50%. With a stacked roster, much less. MD's static approach takes BPA at each draft slot. Baalke's dynamic, wheeling and dealing approach, accepts that the odds are small for a late round draftee making the team, and uses those late round picks to maximize the value of his early picks who are more likely to make the team.

Since 3 years is a long wait to settle the matter, I'm looking forward to training camp to get a first look at our 2013 draftees, and a better look at our 2012 draftees.
Originally posted by natrone06:
Originally posted by Rascal:
, I doubt anyone (if being honest) can tell me, the Vikings and the Rams didn't draft better than the 9ers.

Lol I love that! The only way you can disagree with me is if you are lying.... The definition of drafting "better" is drafting better players and as buck said that's yet to be determined.


Of course everything is yet to be determined. Aren't we all talking what is on paper at this juncture ? Afterall, that is all we can do at this stage. So, on paper, are you saying the Rams and Vikings drafted worse than the 9ers ?
Hey MadDog, do you consider giving away Justin Hunter at 34th a huge miss on our part ?
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by dhp318:
If I ever need reason to doubt Maddog, I just remember Adam Carriker.

If you want to Hesd that direction, it is a slippery slope, since the two players selected after AJ Jenkins and LaMichsel James last year were....Doug Martin and Casey Hayward. Let me rephrase your statement to...

If I ever need a reason to doubt Baalke, I just remember Jenkins and James.

Everyone misses, even Baalke.

I think Baalke is like a slugger. He will strike out but only because hes going for home runs. He won't take safe singles or walks.

He has hit a lot of homers for us.

So far he has provided us pretty much all of our pro bowlers/all pros.
Originally posted by Rascal:
Hey MadDog, do you consider giving away Justin Hunter at 34th a huge miss on our part ?

Why dont you ask him this way... would you rather have drafted Hunter at 34 or have moved down and drafted Tank Carradine and gotten a 3rd next year.