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MadDog's 2013 NFL Draft Review

Great Post MadDog. Like you I like to pretend I'm GM. After two years of watching Baalke/coaches/scouts draft I think I have a decent feel of the type of players they like. So this year I pretended to scout players through their eyes instead of what I thought. So I just wanted to go through the Reid pick on what I think the FO was thinking. I'm going to compare him to Vacarro.


I really believe they thought Reid was the #1 safety over Vaccaro. Out of all the safties in the draft he had the best height/weight/speed (long arms, 4.4 forty) and Baallke likes to draft players with these intagiblies that the coaches can coach up, he hits hard like Goldson. Vacorro hits hard too but Reid hits with more authority. Last he fits are scheme better than Vacarro. Vacarro is very good man saftey but we rarely ask are safties to play man because are front seven is so good. Reid is the better center field safety, but not by much, that can roam around and blow mother f--- up. This is going to be fun to watch this year.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
I am pasting my draft from the past few years. This was embedded inside the Draft War Room Thread About Baalke and Harbaugh drafting ability.

Here was my last three drafts based on my board and team needs at each pick:2010 NFL Draft
1. Iupati (I graded him as the eighth best player in the draft...probably too low).
1. Dez Bryant
2. Morgan Burnett
3. Owusu-Ansah
6. Doug Worthington
6. Cody Davis
6. Jeff Owens
7. Dorin Dickerson

2011 NFL Draft: Here were my post draft notes I posted in the "Redo" thread (I did not trade for Kaepernick in this draft)
1- JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin Simply the best player on the board at the time. Since Franklin appears to be leaving, moving Soap to NT would necessitate a new DE to take over right away.
2- Rodney Hudson, G/C, Florida State I think Hudson is the best OL in the entire draft, and is a starter at guard or center.
3- Curtis Brown, CB, Texas The team needs a cover corner, and Brown has size and speed.
4- Jordan Todman, RB, UConn I graded Todman just slightly over Hunter, who I really like as well. Both are great value picks at this point.
4- Marcus Cannon, G, TCU Since the Niners have a second fourth rounder, this can be a luxury pick. I'd burn it on a risk. Cannon is a starter at guard some time in the future if he can survive cancer and regain his strength. Worth the risk in the fourth round.
5- Tyrod Taylor, QB, Virginia Tech The Niners need QB depth, and while no one expects Taylor to be a future starter, he can be a solid backup if the starter goes down for a short time.
6- Charles Clay, FB, Tulsa A FB who can run and catch the ball. Sounds like a WCO fullback to me.
6- Justin Rogers, CB, Richmond Team needs a second corner in this draft, and Rogers had a terrific career and offseason.
6- Jerrell Powe, NT, Mississippi Simply a backup, toilet clogger. Every 3-4 team needs one.
7- Ugo Chinasa, OLB, Oklahoma St Was not drafted, but a quick, strong guy who could develop into a nice role player.
7- Jeron Johnson, S, Boise St Also not drafted, but a talented, fast guy who has a ton of experience.
7- Dane Sanzenbacher, WR, Ohio St Competition for Williams in the slot. Sanzenbacher was a seriously clutch WR for the Buckeyes.

2012 NFL Draft
1. Peter Konz
2. Mohammed Sanu
4. Malik Jackson
5. Vick Ballard
6. Antonio Allen
6. Not sure- don't have my notes here at work
7. Not sure- don't have my notes here at work

Recap analysis: I loved my first three picks in 2010. The rest have done little to nothing. In 2011, I hit the jackpot with Watt, but probably blew it with Kaepernick (I had faith in Harbaugh and Smith). I do love my fourth rounders through seventh from Cannon through Sanzenbacher. Missed on Hunter, but hit very well on Cannon, Taylor, Rogers, and especially Johnson, who has been terrific for the Seahawks. In 2012, I believe my draft will hold up well with Konz, Sanu and a studly Ballard leading the way. Once again, you hope to hit on as many as possible and some years turn out better than others.

People can debate the 2010 class, but I would probably give a slight nod to Baalke (The outstanding Bowman pick in the third made up for the disasterous pick of Mays), but I think Iupati, Bryant and Burnett made a strong draft class for me.

I think it is pretty obvious that Baalke's 2011 draft class beat mine so far (this class was a grand slam for him), even though I thought I performed much better than the street with Watt anchoring this class. The entire class made an NFL roster in 2011, except for Chinasa, and I love Jeron Johnson late in the 7th. He is a very good player for the Seahawks. Hudson has a ton of potential, but his injury killed off 2012. He will the man delivering to Alex Smith this year.

Based on the 2012 class, I think my draft is superior to far superior over Baalke's so far. Konz played almost the entire year, and will start this year at center. Mohammed, before going out with injury, had 4 TD's in his last three games. And, Vick Ballard was a monster, better than any selection from Baalke's 2012 class.

Now THIS is really putting yourself out there and I probably appreciate this more than anything.

Who else is willing to go back to their original picks and match up with Baalke and who we actually picked. How did you do? Granted these players may have failed with other teams but possibly would have been much better on OUR team over the past two-three years but this is about as close as you're going to get to playing a real GM re: the draft.

Who else is willing to match their mock's to Baalke? Man-up!
Originally posted by LA9erFan:
Wait...I thought your "Big Board" was merely a reflection of where you thought players would be picked rather than your personal opinion of who the best player is. Can you clarify?

The Big Board is only a projection of where I believe a player will land, not a BPA board, or best pick for the Niners board. On my Big Board, I projected Jonathan Cooper to go 10th overall (he went 7th). However, on my BPA board, I ranked him number one.
Originally posted by natrone06:
Yeah? Prove it....
The reason for so much blowback is completely self created. You think you are something you are not. You have no record of your picks and your knowledge of football is at a remdial level compared to anyone that makes decisions that count. You relish the role as zone pseudo celebrity created by your draft analysis and thrive off the critiscm you get from fans angry at your low grades. If you didn't give a low grade would this thread be 15 pages and counting....

All that being said I actually appreciate your analysis because you don't watch film. You are like a gm and all the "media experts" are your scouts. You read a ton and gather info from all the sources. You take bits from Cosell, Mayock, Bob Mcginn's draft positional breakdown and many other sources and create your own opinion. It's informed and often quite useful for us civilians.

I think I have an excellent record examining the draft. You can come to your own conclusion if you look at my record over the years. Take a sample of teams and match their value and production with my draftees. I think you will believe differently.

While I hear some things and read some things, the vast bulk of my opinion comes from watching games, watching practice sessions, watching drills at the combine. I have my own thoughts. That is why I had a late second early third round grade on Vick Ballard last year, someone who was not well talked before the draft last year. I don't need someone to tell me whether a player is good or bad. I draw my own conclusions. That is why I had Bobby Wagner with mid-first round value last year, even though I don't believe another person on the planet felt the same way.

What I read is usually geared toward draft buzz on players rising and falling. This does help me construct an accurate Big Board. It does not alter my thoughts on a player.
Originally posted by valrod33:
you used the Ted Ginn trade in your evaluation of the 2010 draft

Ginn- "A" grade in trade. Ginn has to be included in the draft, since this is the value we receive for our fifth rounder. Ginn's best football is in front of him. He instantly eliminates our second most glaring need this offseason, and becomes our first deep threat at WR in a LONG time. I believe he assumes the number three WR role, and could even push Morgan (depending on Morgan's development).

My view has changed over the year about players added with picks. To me, it gets cloudy. I simply grade now on the individual selections, whether it is one choice in a draft or thirteen.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by LA9erFan:
Wait...I thought your "Big Board" was merely a reflection of where you thought players would be picked rather than your personal opinion of who the best player is. Can you clarify?

The Big Board is only a projection of where I believe a player will land, not a BPA board, or best pick for the Niners board. On my Big Board, I projected Jonathan Cooper to go 10th overall (he went 7th). However, on my BPA board, I ranked him number one.

Did you post your BPA boards in previous years? I remember certain things in the context of conversation (like your fondness for JJ Watt, Gabbert, dislike of Mays, etc), but I don't remember you doing BPA boards in previous years the way that you did this year. Did you do that and I just missed it?
Originally posted by kawika13:
Great Post MadDog. Like you I like to pretend I'm GM. After two years of watching Baalke/coaches/scouts draft I think I have a decent feel of the type of players they like. So this year I pretended to scout players through their eyes instead of what I thought. So I just wanted to go through the Reid pick on what I think the FO was thinking. I'm going to compare him to Vacarro.


I really believe they thought Reid was the #1 safety over Vaccaro. Out of all the safties in the draft he had the best height/weight/speed (long arms, 4.4 forty) and Baallke likes to draft players with these intagiblies that the coaches can coach up, he hits hard like Goldson. Vacorro hits hard too but Reid hits with more authority. Last he fits are scheme better than Vacarro. Vacarro is very good man saftey but we rarely ask are safties to play man because are front seven is so good. Reid is the better center field safety, but not by much, that can roam around and blow mother f--- up. This is going to be fun to watch this year.

Thanks for the response. I think the difference we will see between Goldson and Reid is that Goldson had better coverage skills at this stage of their career. He was a converter corner from Washington. Reid has excellent straight line speed, better than Goldson, but I think we will see a sure drop in productivity at the position in 2013.
Originally posted by LA9erFan:
Did you post your BPA boards in previous years? I remember certain things in the context of conversation (like your fondness for JJ Watt, Gabbert, dislike of Mays, etc), but I don't remember you doing BPA boards in previous years the way that you did this year. Did you do that and I just missed it?

I did, but stupidly enough in the previous years, embedded it inside threads. I wanted it to stand out this year so everyone could see my BPA board (and I wouldn't lose it for reference sake), just like the Big Board.
LA9erFan,

Here was my BPA board from 2010. It was on my Stacking the Board thread. Found it in a search.

MadDog's 49ers Draft Board- Stacking the Top 50 Players
Board Rank Name Position
1 Eric Berry S
2 Ndamukong Suh DT/DE
3 Russell Okung OT
4 CJ Spiller RB
5 Sam Bradford QB
6 Gerald McCoy DT/DE
7 Joe Haden CB
8 Mike Iupati G/OT
9 Brandon Graham OLB
10 Dez Bryant WR
11 Trent Williams OT
12 Anthony Davis OT
13 Charles Brown OT
14 Maurkice Pouncey C/G
15 Bryan Bulaga OT
16 Kyle Wilson CB
17 Earl Thomas CB/S
18 Dan Williams NT
19 Jared Odrick DE
20 Ryan Matthews RB
21 Rolando McClain LB
22 Bruce Campbell OT
23 Rodger Saffold OT
24 Nate Allen S
25 Morgan Burnett S
26 Devin McCourty CB
27 Akwasi Owusu-Ansah CB/S
28 Arrelious Benn WR
29 Sergio Kindle OLB
30 Jason Pierre-Paul OLB
31 Jerry Hughes OLB
32 John Jerry G/OT
33 Jahvid Best RB
34 Golden Tate WR
35 Jon Asamoah G
36 Jason Worilds OLB
37 Everson Griffen OLB
38 Derrick Morgan OLB/DE
39 Jimmy Clausen QB
40 Chad Jones S
41 Jermaine Gresham TE
42 Dexter McCluster RB
43 Vladimir Ducasse OT
44 Aaron Hernandez TE
45 Jared Veldheer OT
46 Koa Misi OLB
47 Demaryius Thomas WR
48 Kareem Jackson CB
49 Terrence Cody NT
50 Thaddeus Gibson OLB

A few regrets from this draft, as always, but was pretty good in stacking the top part of my board. Wish I had M. Pouncey, JPP, and D. Thomas higher, but I loved Berry and Suh at the top, and had Iupati at 8. I saw him as a stud and pumped him on the board way in advance.
[ Edited by MadDog49er on Apr 30, 2013 at 12:00 PM ]
Much appreciated. And yes, I remember your advocacy of Iupati.
Originally posted by LA9erFan:
Much appreciated. And yes, I remember your advocacy of Iupati.

I know people freaked out over him after listening to Mike Mayock talk about the holding penalties during the Senior Bowl game. I simply said, "Coaches and scouts thought he was the most likely player at the Senior Bowl practices to be a Pro Bowler someday". I didn't even need that comment, since I saw him destroy others during the practice sessions. In the game, they were flipping him back and forth between right and left guard, and almost all of the problems happened on the right side, which was not his usual position.
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
I always look at it from a financial aspect . I think we had our guy(Reid) rated higher. Baalke said he had the deal agreed to contingent on Reid being there at 18, and the Cowboys wanted to still do the trade.

Idk, I like the pick, I thought the trade up was weird, but I'm cool with it. We got a good FS to be next to whitner, then whoever we add to take over for Whitner.


I believe Reid is the replacement for Whitner in a years time. The 49ers FO wants two interchangeable safeties and Reid is one of them. The other one will come in the 2014 draft
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by LA9erFan:
Much appreciated. And yes, I remember your advocacy of Iupati.

I know people freaked out over him after listening to Mike Mayock talk about the holding penalties during the Senior Bowl game. I simply said, "Coaches and scouts thought he was the most likely player at the Senior Bowl practices to be a Pro Bowler someday". I didn't even need that comment, since I saw him destroy others during the practice sessions. In the game, they were flipping him back and forth between right and left guard, and almost all of the problems happened on the right side, which was not his usual position.

MD, how did everyone and their mother miss on Geno Atkins that year? Big school, good production, size, measurables etc.
Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by LA9erFan:
Much appreciated. And yes, I remember your advocacy of Iupati.

I know people freaked out over him after listening to Mike Mayock talk about the holding penalties during the Senior Bowl game. I simply said, "Coaches and scouts thought he was the most likely player at the Senior Bowl practices to be a Pro Bowler someday". I didn't even need that comment, since I saw him destroy others during the practice sessions. In the game, they were flipping him back and forth between right and left guard, and almost all of the problems happened on the right side, which was not his usual position.

MD, how did everyone and their mother miss on Geno Atkins that year? Big school, good production, size, measurables etc.

It just shows what a crapshoot the draft can be at times. Look at MD's top 50. Probably 20% of those guys have been busts or close to it. (Not just MDs by the way.. Im sure every draft guy that year).
Great call on Geno Atkins - and great pick-up.

Only time will tell with our draft. I really like our chances with he guys selected.