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MadDog's 2013 NFL Draft Review

Originally posted by buck:
Originally posted by Rascal:
OK, I miscounted, thank you, but I still think is excessive.

But, the point is with 13 picks, we didn't exactly walk away from the draft like wow the 9ers cleaned up big time if you will which many had expected.

You look at the Rams and Vikings and you go whatttt !! A huge difference there without a doubt.

You welcome.

A few things.

Most people grading drafts are giving the 49ers very high scores. There is another thread with a listing of the various grades.
I have to get to work so I can not find it right now.

Much of your grade is based on the fact that the 49ers did not pick the players you wanted. They did not pick any of the players that I wanted either.
But, what I wanted or what you wanted is not very relevent to the grade they should get.

This year I am not attempting to grade the draft. I am going to wait and see how it turns out.
The discussions are interesting, seriously it takes two or three years to honestly evaluate a draft.

In three years, your grade might prove to be correct.


Well, you are not wrong to say we can only grade the draft a few years down the road cos that was the way we drafted.

My point being is teams like the Rams or the Vikings drafted players that can contribute from the word go. Even if the wideouts are not fully ready per se, guys like Austin and Patterson can at least return kicks and punts right off the bat cos that is an inate talent.

Those are type of players I wanted who can make a difference now cos we badly need to win the Super Bowl this coming season.

Besides, I doubt anyone (if being honest) can tell me, the Vikings and the Rams didn't draft better than the 9ers.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by iLL49er:
I ask MD again for the 3rd time..........how are you ripping Reid or even analyzing any secondary when you don't have coaches tape.

You can analyze DL/OL/LB/RB/QB...even wr just based on their pure athletic ability on tape

BUT THERE IS NO WAY YOU CAN MAKE ANY ANALYSIS OF ANY PLAYER IN THE SECONDARY WITHOUT COACHES TAPE

If I missed the first two posts, my apologies. Trying to answer all. You are right that seeing the secondary is not as easy as seeing the guys in the trenches, TEs, OLBs, RBs and more. As for corners and safeties, you may not be able to see all plays, but enough sample to make a reasonable judgment. With the magic of the Internet, and the time invested by many who follow specific players, even a casual fan can see a lot of game action, from many different camera angles. This is especially true with players from big time programs,

Once again, I am not able to see every snap, but that is not necessary, I have seen plenty from Eric Reid to make a reasonable judgment, without wavering.
On the other hand, if we thought Baalke was making a decision without reviewing ALL the available information we'd be pretty unhappy.

I guess its the difference between a hobby and a profession. With your hobby, you can make a call based on whatever you want.

As a professional, with milliions of dollars and the future of an NFL franchise at stake, Baalke's got tons of pressure on him to make the right call. He undoubtedly reviews EVERYTHING, and discusses it all with his staff and the coaches, puts alot of thought into the process before he makes a call.

"Oh, I didn't need to see every snap of Kaepernicks to know he's not a first round value." vs. "No one else knows how good Kaepernick can be, so I think we can steal him in the early second round if we play our cards right and keep our mouths shut until the draft."

The first statement, by a draft board hobbyist, has virtually nothing at risk. The second statement, about a franchise QB, might deternine the fate of the Niners for years to come.

As useful as your critiques of the draft are every year for those of us who are interested in learning more about what Baalke was thinking during the draft, the fact is that you really have nothing at stake. Pretty easy to be hyper critical in those circumstances. Pretty easy to be hypocritical too, though, so be careful.
[ Edited by oldninerdude on Apr 30, 2013 at 8:52 AM ]
Originally posted by Rascal:
, I doubt anyone (if being honest) can tell me, the Vikings and the Rams didn't draft better than the 9ers.

Lol I love that! The only way you can disagree with me is if you are lying.... The definition of drafting "better" is drafting better players and as buck said that's yet to be determined.
Originally posted by jreff22:
http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/niners/140843-taylor-mays-is-a-niner/search=taylor%20mays

you would be surprised

Agreed. The vast majority rejoiced in the selection. And, they have that right. He was a major disappointment. Here was my...no so pleasant breakdown (i have toned down over the years) of the pick (post 396 on the link above):

Obviously, we've hit the hot button for the summer with this subject. And, it is only going to get worse. There is no doubt the first time Mays hits a fourth string WR for the Daytona Batwings in one of our pre-season games, we will unvail a new bronze bust at the Stick of Mays and crown him the GOAT. I guess I don't hide my sentiments very well. Sorry. The bottom line is that he runs in a straight line faster than 99.9% of all players entering the NFL draft in the history of the league. And, there is no doubt that he is a handsome athlete. Tall, muscular, lean. He looks the part.At the same time there is no denying his struggles in coverage during Senior Bowl week. They were well-documented by every media outlet that covered the week. The same problems were repeated during combine week drills. And, for a team that needs as much help as possible in coverage, in a big pay league, having a guy who struggles in transition is a big issue that coaching is not going to fix. Even if he looks good in shorts and rans fast in the straight line.In other words, "Coaching him up" is not going to solve a problem with a player who is stiff in the hips. What are you going to tell him???...."Turn faster!!!!!!!!!!"The part that is most ironic, funny, crazy is that if he was drafted by the Seahawks, he would undoubtably annointed as an underachiever, a certain draft bust. Are we suffering from the "Since we drafted him, he must be great" syndrome?I hope I am hopelessly wrong on this one, that Mays magically gains an ability to cover receivers, tight ends, running backs. He is one of ours, and his success is our success. At the same time, I can't just blow over the fact that he is a prospect that has fallen dramatically in the eyes of coaches, scouts, GM's, even with a world class measurables. Putting on a 49ers uniform does not automatically correct these issues.
Originally posted by iLL49er:
MD you seem to be especially proud of the following:

-advocating for JJ Watt over Aldon Smith...the rub is you had no idea aldon smith would get 19 sacks in his 2nd season. Your projection of Aldon is no where near the dominant reality of aldon smith. Its too early to say JJ watt was the right pick...they are both pretty dominant, watt had a better year last year but they've only completed 2yrs and are both premier players so this boasting makes no sense

-you suggest you knew taylor mays would suck. sorry but everyone knew....

-did you call for us to draft kaepernick last year? did you advocate for navarro bowman 3yrs ago? did you find bruce miller? etc etc

you seem to be knocking baalke down which is ridiuculous

Find me a perfect analyst, and you will not find him. As stated ridiculous amounts of times, all GM's are going to miss far more than hit. It is simply a matter of missing less. No one is saying on this end that I am perfect. I have certainly missed. At the same time, I have hit an awful lot.

I have also stated scores of times that it is premature to annoint one draft class or player superior to another early in their careers. It may end up that Aldon flames out, or Watt flames out. Nobody knows. I did, and will continue to take Watt over Aldon, but nothing is certain.

As for knocking Baalke down, I don't think that is a fair judgment. My grade for this class was a B-, not a D-. A B- grade is pretty good. It just has some flaws from making it great.
Originally posted by Hoovtrain:
Actually the Watt over Smith pick is the biggest misconception out there. What he initially advocated was trading the 1st and 3rd (turned out to be Smith and Culliver) and whatever else it would have taken to move up for PP. So he was actually for bypassing both Smith AND Watt for PP.

And no, he was not a fan of the Bowman pick either. Said it wasnt good value for a player that was ill suited for the 3-4. Same analysis for Kaep but in terms of the offense.

While I'm not sure on exactly where he fits in here, I remember some serious advocation of Blaine Gabbert as well.
Originally posted by fryet:
MadDog, it would be fun if you posted in the grading of the 2010 draft and compare your picks to Baalke. I don't remember who you picked, and considering that Baalke did an A+ draft, chances are he beat you that year. But it would still be fun to see how well you did draft in 2010.

One other thing that would be interesting to see. We can all agree that the 49er organization has access to more information than a draftnik does. Yet, I wonder if more information at times actually causes poorer decisions since you may put more value in hidden information than what the player produced on the field. What does it say about the experts if a draftnik can beat them?

I am pasting my draft from the past few years. This was embedded inside the Draft War Room Thread About Baalke and Harbaugh drafting ability.

Here was my last three drafts based on my board and team needs at each pick:2010 NFL Draft
1. Iupati (I graded him as the eighth best player in the draft...probably too low).
1. Dez Bryant
2. Morgan Burnett
3. Owusu-Ansah
6. Doug Worthington
6. Cody Davis
6. Jeff Owens
7. Dorin Dickerson

2011 NFL Draft: Here were my post draft notes I posted in the "Redo" thread (I did not trade for Kaepernick in this draft)
1- JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin Simply the best player on the board at the time. Since Franklin appears to be leaving, moving Soap to NT would necessitate a new DE to take over right away.
2- Rodney Hudson, G/C, Florida State I think Hudson is the best OL in the entire draft, and is a starter at guard or center.
3- Curtis Brown, CB, Texas The team needs a cover corner, and Brown has size and speed.
4- Jordan Todman, RB, UConn I graded Todman just slightly over Hunter, who I really like as well. Both are great value picks at this point.
4- Marcus Cannon, G, TCU Since the Niners have a second fourth rounder, this can be a luxury pick. I'd burn it on a risk. Cannon is a starter at guard some time in the future if he can survive cancer and regain his strength. Worth the risk in the fourth round.
5- Tyrod Taylor, QB, Virginia Tech The Niners need QB depth, and while no one expects Taylor to be a future starter, he can be a solid backup if the starter goes down for a short time.
6- Charles Clay, FB, Tulsa A FB who can run and catch the ball. Sounds like a WCO fullback to me.
6- Justin Rogers, CB, Richmond Team needs a second corner in this draft, and Rogers had a terrific career and offseason.
6- Jerrell Powe, NT, Mississippi Simply a backup, toilet clogger. Every 3-4 team needs one.
7- Ugo Chinasa, OLB, Oklahoma St Was not drafted, but a quick, strong guy who could develop into a nice role player.
7- Jeron Johnson, S, Boise St Also not drafted, but a talented, fast guy who has a ton of experience.
7- Dane Sanzenbacher, WR, Ohio St Competition for Williams in the slot. Sanzenbacher was a seriously clutch WR for the Buckeyes.

2012 NFL Draft
1. Peter Konz
2. Mohammed Sanu
4. Malik Jackson
5. Vick Ballard
6. Antonio Allen
6. Not sure- don't have my notes here at work
7. Not sure- don't have my notes here at work

Recap analysis: I loved my first three picks in 2010. The rest have done little to nothing. In 2011, I hit the jackpot with Watt, but probably blew it with Kaepernick (I had faith in Harbaugh and Smith). I do love my fourth rounders through seventh from Cannon through Sanzenbacher. Missed on Hunter, but hit very well on Cannon, Taylor, Rogers, and especially Johnson, who has been terrific for the Seahawks. In 2012, I believe my draft will hold up well with Konz, Sanu and a studly Ballard leading the way. Once again, you hope to hit on as many as possible and some years turn out better than others.

People can debate the 2010 class, but I would probably give a slight nod to Baalke (The outstanding Bowman pick in the third made up for the disasterous pick of Mays), but I think Iupati, Bryant and Burnett made a strong draft class for me.

I think it is pretty obvious that Baalke's 2011 draft class beat mine so far (this class was a grand slam for him), even though I thought I performed much better than the street with Watt anchoring this class. The entire class made an NFL roster in 2011, except for Chinasa, and I love Jeron Johnson late in the 7th. He is a very good player for the Seahawks. Hudson has a ton of potential, but his injury killed off 2012. He will the man delivering to Alex Smith this year.

Based on the 2012 class, I think my draft is superior to far superior over Baalke's so far. Konz played almost the entire year, and will start this year at center. Mohammed, before going out with injury, had 4 TD's in his last three games. And, Vick Ballard was a monster, better than any selection from Baalke's 2012 class.
[ Edited by MadDog49er on Apr 30, 2013 at 9:14 AM ]
Wait...I thought your "Big Board" was merely a reflection of where you thought players would be picked rather than your personal opinion of who the best player is. Can you clarify?
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Find me a perfect analyst, and you will not find him. As stated ridiculous amounts of times, all GM's are going to miss far more than hit. It is simply a matter of missing less. No one is saying on this end that I am perfect. I have certainly missed. At the same time, I have hit an awful lot.
.

Yeah? Prove it....
The reason for so much blowback is completely self created. You think you are something you are not. You have no record of your picks and your knowledge of football is at a remdial level compared to anyone that makes decisions that count. You relish the role as zone pseudo celebrity created by your draft analysis and thrive off the critiscm you get from fans angry at your low grades. If you didn't give a low grade would this thread be 15 pages and counting....

All that being said I actually appreciate your analysis because you don't watch film. You are like a gm and all the "media experts" are your scouts. You read a ton and gather info from all the sources. You take bits from Cosell, Mayock, Bob Mcginn's draft positional breakdown and many other sources and create your own opinion. It's informed and often quite useful for us civilians.
[ Edited by natrone06 on Apr 30, 2013 at 9:20 AM ]
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Thanks MadDog. It is fun to look back.
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Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Find me a perfect analyst, and you will not find him. As stated ridiculous amounts of times, all GM's are going to miss far more than hit. It is simply a matter of missing less. No one is saying on this end that I am perfect. I have certainly missed. At the same time, I have hit an awful lot.


As for knocking Baalke down, I don't think that is a fair judgment. My grade for this class was a B-, not a D-. A B- grade is pretty good. It just has some flaws from making it great.

Let's not get carried away. You would have run this team into the ground as a GM.
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Let's face it, Singletary would have had the Dog "fixed."

If MD was GM back then he'd have had to take Mays in the first round, just to keep Singletary happy.

Seriously, its easy to criticize Baalke for picking Mays in the 4th back then, but I'm guessing that HC Singletary, the guy who ran VD off the field, could be pretty demanding on draft day--an its no secret that he wanted Mays.

On the other hand, post Singletary, Baalke wasted little time getting rid of Mays. That said everything about who's draft pick he really was.

A good GM also gets his coaches the players THEY want (yes, even you Singletary) as well centered around team needs and BPA at those positions...needless to say, Do-not-tell, Ron Jeremy, W-W-L and even Seely-Eyes and Tom BattleRham are VERY happy!
I think the problem MD is that you tend to gloat about a couple of times you made a good call ( Mays as an example) while seeming to pass over all the times you missed on the calls. Let's face it. You were dead wrong when it came to KEY players on the Niners. You would have Dalton instead of Kaepernick, Carriker instead of Patrick Willis, Blaine Gabbert would be a 49er, Navarro Bowman would not be a 49er, and Vernon Davis would be long gone.

You do a lot of work and make a lot of informative posts. However, you are not an analyst who has all of the tools that are necessary to really be effective. You do what most of us do ( albeit much more Im sure).............. look at the draft sites and look at UTube clips. Having no access to complete game tapes, medical records, player interviews, or background checks makes it impossible for anyone (even you) to ever be as successful as Baalke. Case in point is Jesse Williams. I'm sure you had no clue on how bad his medical records are.

Regardless, I have always believed the WZ is better with you here as you do provide a lot of information. I consider you to be a fan with a hobby that spends a lot of time on the draft. I also think its great to have an opinion on the draft. It just seems that if the Niners dont pick the guys you like they will always get a low grade from you.
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Let's face it, Singletary would have had the Dog "fixed."

If MD was GM back then he'd have had to take Mays in the first round, just to keep Singletary happy.

Seriously, its easy to criticize Baalke for picking Mays in the 4th back then, but I'm guessing that HC Singletary, the guy who ran VD off the field, could be pretty demanding on draft day--an its no secret that he wanted Mays.

On the other hand, post Singletary, Baalke wasted little time getting rid of Mays. That said everything about who's draft pick he really was.

A good GM also gets his coaches the players THEY want (yes, even you Singletary) as well centered around team needs and BPA at those positions...needless to say, Do-not-tell, Ron Jeremy, W-W-L and even Seely-Eyes and Tom BattleRham are VERY happy!
Lol. Maybe that's the best way to "grade" a draft, if most of the coachs are happy with who they've got to work with.

The interesting thing, to me, was the way they got rid of Mays--sending out a fax and publicizing his availability. Very unusual, and I doubt it was aimed at Mays himself. Seems like a parting shot from Baalke to Singletary. ("This guy was such a bad choice, Mike, that we're willing to give him away.")
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by AmpLee:
I know it's been mentioned, but when grading our draft, one must factor in Boldin and McCoy. Aside from that, while picking up an extra 3 next year is fantastic, it's hard to put that into a current grade when it will be used to grade next year's draft as a draftee.

MD, I appreciate your effort, however, I get the sense you still think of Baalke as inadequate/lucky. I think you pin yourself to your prognostications to the effect that it doesn't allow you to consider any other perspective. There's no denying you arguably know more about these players than anyone on this board, but there's also no denying that our braintrust knows a whole of a heck of a lot more than the collective of this entire board does. They are simply privy to information we are not. That being said, any ribbing is in good nature and given your penchant for bold predictions, I'm sure there will be some in the future when this draft turns into an A.
I did not add the value of traded picks for veterans. Some do, and I completely get it. I tend to base the grade simply on the players selected, the value at the pick, etc. Everyone has their own grading system.

As for Baalke, I think he has been very good at the draft. We disagree on many player personnel choices, but to even hit on the same player at the same pick twice in this draft, with Carradine and Patton, shows that the planets do align every once in awhile.

To me, Baalke is a bit of a gambler, and I tend to be more conservative.

As for information, there is so much stuff on the internet from a wide variety of sources that the only deficiency I have is medicals. Character concerns become public knowledge, through writers and social media, the ability to interview well can be seen in interviews done by TV stations and with local and national writers, and performance on the field is easy to examine. I think the draft is becoming much easier for people on the outside to examine and make decent judgment calls.


you used the Ted Ginn trade in your evaluation of the 2010 draft

Ginn- "A" grade in trade. Ginn has to be included in the draft, since this is the value we receive for our fifth rounder. Ginn's best football is in front of him. He instantly eliminates our second most glaring need this offseason, and becomes our first deep threat at WR in a LONG time. I believe he assumes the number three WR role, and could even push Morgan (depending on Morgan's development).