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MadDog's 2013 NFL Draft Review

I also think we reached on Reid, which is not to say he won't be a good pro. Safeties with those measurables can be rare, which is why they're usually drafted early. The most recent examples of highly touted safeties are Eric Berry and Earl Thomas. Only problem was, even after those measurables, and after knowing Reid is a great person, and hard worker, team captain, SEC conference, and yada yada yada... people STILL had Vaccaro rated higher. I know Harbaugh said he had Reid rated higher, but I believe this screams bias. Harbaugh wants the lover that spurned him. This tells me something doesn't smell right about Reid, which makes Eifert the obvious BPA and a missed pick. I know I got bashed for saying that in another thread but I agree with you MD..

And to AB--- by the time Eifert came to his next contract, you let go of Davis, or trade him, or whatever. You draft BPA and figure everything else out later. The positive effect of having Eifert on this team, in the redzone, etc, would have been astronomical. Hopefully McDonald can provide something of a redzone target, something our highly respected starting TE does not.
[ Edited by Big_Daddy on Apr 29, 2013 at 7:23 PM ]
Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
You must have missed the question so will ask again.. How would you rate the draft if the picks went:

31 Tank
34 Reid
61 McDonald
93 Lemonier
128 Patton
131 Lattimore

In this case, would they not have gotten great value at 31, 128, and 131 and gotten fair market value at 34 61 and 93? So, would your grade change without moving up for Reid and taking your guy Carradine?

You'd have to throw in the 74th overall as well, since that was the compensation for moving up from 31 to 18. My grade, probably a B, since most of these players are still pretty overvalued at their selection.
Reid is a player JH has watched and liked for years. That may mean he reached for a player he believes in or he knows Reid is better than most NFL folks understand...or both. At any rate, I see it as a selection from knowledge not ignorance, making it a good selection.

Top need = FS, top pick = FS.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
You must have missed the question so will ask again.. How would you rate the draft if the picks went:

31 Tank
34 Reid
61 McDonald
93 Lemonier
128 Patton
131 Lattimore

In this case, would they not have gotten great value at 31, 128, and 131 and gotten fair market value at 34 61 and 93? So, would your grade change without moving up for Reid and taking your guy Carradine?

You'd have to throw in the 74th overall as well, since that was the compensation for moving up from 31 to 18. My grade, probably a B, since most of these players are still pretty overvalued at their selection.

Well then you have to give the Niners the 3rd rd pick for next yea they got for moving down. Again, you cant have it both ways MD. . After round 5 I really dont care. It was doubtful that a 6th or 7th rd pick would make the 53 ma roster. As for the players being overvalued... didnt they take Carradine and Patton well after where you ranked them?
[ Edited by Ninerjohn on Apr 29, 2013 at 7:31 PM ]
Originally posted by Frisco69ers:
sorry MadDog but I trust Baalke's judgement alot more than yours bro. Reid will be a stud and Cinn was a strong possibility of them taking him 3 picks later. But i can understand your reasoning.

Trust the Dog. Last time the Niners drafted a safety high, it was Taylor Mays, who I thought was a train wreck and wasted pick. Turns out I was right, and Morgan Burnett was the better choice. I outbaalkeed the Baalke.
Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
I doubt it too. Cincy and the Giants evidently wanted him big time. Just wanted to see if this changed MD's opinion since Reid would not be a first rd pick then.

I wish one of these would have picked him and not us. To me, it is not about whether other teams valued his selection in this spot, it is simply my grading of him in this slot.
Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
I wrote a post in "NinerTalk" (yeah, I know...) where I stated a few holes the team still has (1) secondary, (2) speed on offense, (3) punt return, (4) OT depth. I got chewed out. People asked me how I could say we don't have speed on offense when Vance McDonald was the fastest TE in the class and I can't even count how many people brought up Lockette and AJJ. The 2 guys that have so far combined for 0/0/0 (assign whatever statistic you want to those number... except drops, then you'll have to change one of them to a 1). These are the same people that wanted Austin because we needed speed on offense just 2 days prior! But that's sports fans.

I really appreciate the work that you do, and enjoy reading your stuff. One point about comparing your drafts to Baalke's. You have to consider 2 things:

  1. When making decisions, Baalke doesn't have the luxury of knowing if a player will or won't be there later. So he can't decide if Philip Thomas (who I did not like at all) will be available in the 3rd and is better value than Reid at 18. Looking back, we completely have that luxury. So there's a bias.
  2. Baalke has to "please the coaches" to some degree. I'm guessing the Reid pick was more of a Harbaugh decision than a Baalke one. I'm not saying they disagreed on it -- i have no way of knowing that -- but if they did, that's another consideration. He can't act in isolation. In the long run, consensus wins out I believe, but for individual picks this could have a negative effect. Then again, Kaep is likely here due to Harbaugh as well and Baalke gets his fair share of praise for it.

Keep up the great work. Look forward to reading more of your stuff, and also trying to get more and more involved myself.

Thanks for the kind words. Not sure who was fighting for whom in the war room, but I can tell you that all my selections were made while the team was on the clock. Otherwise, as you state, it would be cheating and cherry picking. All of my picks were made before the Niners made their call. That is why you see J. Williams at 61. I thought he was the best player on the board for value and need, even though he wouldn't be selected for three more rounds.
Originally posted by mutant-man49:
I think it's safe to say maddog doesn't like trading up

The depth was so strong in this draft class that there was no reason to do so this year. I do like trading up when the value is there. I was a strong advocate for moving up last year to snag David DeCastro.
  • dj43
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Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
If the team if moving up to 18, get a player than matches the value. The pick should have been Tyler Eifert, who is going to be a stud in the NFL. Maybe the Bengals should send a Thank You card to the Niners for Christmas. The Niners obviously saw need at TE, as they selected McDonald 37 picks later. They should have picked up the best player on the board at that point, Eifert.

Here's the fallacy in your reasoning. The bolded is absolutely correct. You and the 49ers agree: TE was a need. And yet they still took Reid over Eifert at 18! That should tell you all you need to know, which is this: You believe Eifert was a better prospect and therefore BPA at that point. The 49ers believe Reid was a better prospect and therefore BPA at that point.

This isn't a disagreement over strategy or philosophy; it's a simply disagreement in evaluation. Now here's hoping the 49ers were more correct than you this time around, Reid becomes a better safety than Eifert does a tight end.

Both, IMHO would have been great picks for us. I personally wanted Ertz with our second pick and Fleener over AJ last year. That said, let's be real here. In order, our top needs were FS, DE and TE. And we nailed it. The FS is going to play 100% of the time. The DE is going to play, maybe, 50% of the time and we all know the 2nd TE is going to play 50% of the time. If we didn't have Davis already as the #1 TE, then I'd agree with Eifert. But we needed a more "complementary" TE who can line up out of the Q, in the slot, on the LOS, in short yardage, big target in the RZ/EZ, etc. We needed a a guy to be that swiss army knife again since the departure of Walker so Davis can be free in the secondary. Roman is in love with this guy.

So when you factor the specific role the 2nd TE is going to play within our offense, Reid is the clear choice here followed by the DE and then TE.

We agree on the importance of a second (complimentary) TE. Slants as well as outside the numbers passing game will work much better with a TE that demands attention in the open zones in the middle of the field. Brent Jones was an unsung hero in his time. It was his threat that kept extra pressure off Rice and others on the outside.
Originally posted by iLL49er:
I ask MD again for the 3rd time..........how are you ripping Reid or even analyzing any secondary when you don't have coaches tape.

You can analyze DL/OL/LB/RB/QB...even wr just based on their pure athletic ability on tape

BUT THERE IS NO WAY YOU CAN MAKE ANY ANALYSIS OF ANY PLAYER IN THE SECONDARY WITHOUT COACHES TAPE

If I missed the first two posts, my apologies. Trying to answer all. You are right that seeing the secondary is not as easy as seeing the guys in the trenches, TEs, OLBs, RBs and more. As for corners and safeties, you may not be able to see all plays, but enough sample to make a reasonable judgment. With the magic of the Internet, and the time invested by many who follow specific players, even a casual fan can see a lot of game action, from many different camera angles. This is especially true with players from big time programs,

Once again, I am not able to see every snap, but that is not necessary, I have seen plenty from Eric Reid to make a reasonable judgment, without wavering.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by iLL49er:
I ask MD again for the 3rd time..........how are you ripping Reid or even analyzing any secondary when you don't have coaches tape.

You can analyze DL/OL/LB/RB/QB...even wr just based on their pure athletic ability on tape

BUT THERE IS NO WAY YOU CAN MAKE ANY ANALYSIS OF ANY PLAYER IN THE SECONDARY WITHOUT COACHES TAPE

If I missed the first two posts, my apologies. Trying to answer all. You are right that seeing the secondary is not as easy as seeing the guys in the trenches, TEs, OLBs, RBs and more. As for corners and safeties, you may not be able to see all plays, but enough sample to make a reasonable judgment. With the magic of the Internet, and the time invested by many who follow specific players, even a casual fan can see a lot of game action, from many different camera angles. This is especially true with players from big time programs,

Once again, I am not able to see every snap, but that is not necessary, I have seen plenty from Eric Reid to make a reasonable judgment, without wavering.
And I'm sure from all of this video you are more equipped to evaluate as opposed to say Mike Mayock who actually played in the NFL in the secondary and has access to every piece of game action there is.

Mayocks comments on Reid:
This kid is a big, physical safety with great movement skills. He will be a wonderful complement to Donte Whitner."
Originally posted by WildBill:
It was not just the Bengals, but the Rams were waiting also, they ended up trading out. Of course you won't know that because no team will admit they wanted that guy unless in the future they get him and admit that. Also, Behind them was the Ravens, who could have jumped the niners. There is also the fact that few people, MadDog included, doesn't take into account the style and scheme that a team plays and whether that player is a fit, only the value as a player.

That Reid played in a big program and is smart, not to mention the measurables like 40.5 vertical, 4.49-4.51 40 and is 6-1 + and 219. (which is what everyone including the niners wanted to match against the bigger wr and te in the league.

Disagree with your assessment of their needs at free safety. With the addition of Harvin and Austin in the NFC West, which happened before the pick, the imperative to select a top notch cover corner increased dramatically. Reid is a bit stiff in the hips, and I believe will have a difficult time with some of these roadrunners.

I love Reid's measurables, but as we saw with Mays, those numbers can be deceiving. We will soon see
Originally posted by GORO:
Eric Reid- Is not highly ranked because of a mediocre 2012 year. I believe he is being unfairly devalued like William Moore (Falcons) was coming into the draft

Mcdonald- Harbaugh had recurited Ertz, Fleener to stanford so he knows how to identify and develop TEs

B.J. Daniels- Will have a chance to be a Qb and maybe return guy. Watched highlights he looks like a poor mans Russell Wilson

Corner Back- Did not draft one early and with 6 picks in first three rounds in next years draft it was not as big a need as S, TE and Pass rusher.

MadDog I know the 49ers donot always follow value when making selections but with their system they have done a good job and have once again added talent to this team.

No doubt Harbaugh has an excellent system in place.
  • buck
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Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by Frisco69ers:
sorry MadDog but I trust Baalke's judgement alot more than yours bro. Reid will be a stud and Cinn was a strong possibility of them taking him 3 picks later. But i can understand your reasoning.

Trust the Dog. Last time the Niners drafted a safety high, it was Taylor Mays, who I thought was a train wreck and wasted pick. Turns out I was right, and Morgan Burnett was the better choice. I outbaalkeed the Baalke.

Grade the 49ers 2010 Draft [3 years later]

Like they say, give it 3 years and then you can really grade a draft

1. Anthony Davis
1. Mike Iupati
2. Taylor Mays
3. Navorro Bowman
6. Anthony Dixon
6. Nate Byham
6. Kyle Williams
7. Phillip Adams

http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/nfl-draft/173002-grade-49ers-2010-draft-years-later/

This is the draft that we should be grading. Grading this year's draft is interesting, but not particularly useful.

It is, if I am not mistaken, Baalke's first draft and that means that it is still relevant.

Even with the catastrophic pick of Taylor Mays, it is hard, at least for me, to imagine a better draft; a A plus draft.



Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Nicely said NC! I've never had a problem with MD because I'm not willing to put the time in to evaluate 200 college players and rank them. He does. Over the past couple of years there have been some acrimonious discussions emanating from MD's evaluation threads and some members seem to be holding grudges...OK, no big deal. Mad Dog seems to be taking the high road--hope everyone can next year. He also writes quite well and that should be appreciated.

If I did watch games of every player, read every scrap on them and then ranked them...I might be a bit defensive when folks took pot shots.

Thanks for the thread, MD, but even more for ignoring the negative posts.

Life is too short to be angry. All of this is speculation at this point, but I am strongly opinionated and passionate about my analysis and it rubs some the wrong way. What can you do but be honest.
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