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Could the 49ers convince a team to use the new draft value chart?

  • fryet
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 2,900
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
I understand and agree with most of that. But still, I'm pretty sure there has NEVER been a significant trade-up in the 1st round that conformed to this "new" chart. The "old" chart is much more consistent with precedent, and 84sheepdog had a point above when he suggested that all those teams who are "interested" in trading down may still be very reluctant to be the first team in history to trade down for a haul of picks that makes all the guys on TV say, "Wait, really? That's it??"

So, while I am mostly in the camp of staying put and/or trading down, I will say this: If Baalke loves a guy who we can only get in the top 15, and we're able to it while keeping our other three top-74 picks (possible with the new chart), and we're still able to trade some mid-late picks for 2014 picks, then I wouldn't be upset.

Yes, it would be a little hard to defend for the first team that does it. That is why I think they will choose a trade somewhere between the 2 draft charts. They will say that they value picks based on the new, and by getting something in between old and new, they made out like bandits in the new trade chart. But it would take a GM with courage to do it. They do exist (think of the GM that took a DE #1 instead of Reggie Bush).
Originally posted by 5280High:
Can I ask a serious question... aside from a guy like Suh, when he was a prospect, is there anyone in recent memory that would justify this kind of trade as a DL?

Suh was a freak at his position, much like CJ/JJ at WR, or Eric Berry/Earl Thomas (low 4.4 safeties with instincts are rare). There is no one in this class that just screams physical freak WITH instincts aside from Austin (That change of direction is redunk) who we wont draft.

Depends who you ask. I'm a big 49er fan and draft mock reader, but I'm 0% of a scout myself. Based on the reports, Dion Jordan and Sharrif Floyd both strike me as "freakish" type talents. Here is a tidbit from our own MadDog, who is rarely prone to hyperbole:

Side note: The team(s) that pass on Sharrif Floyd are going to kick themselves for the next 10 years. He is the best player in this draft, and I'm not sure it is close. Knowing the Raiders luck, the Jaguars's front office will have a team of mules kick them in the head and dump the idea of Jordan at 2 and select Floyd. He is a 20 year old monster in the making
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Originally posted by 5280High:
Can I ask a serious question... aside from a guy like Suh, when he was a prospect, is there anyone in recent memory that would justify this kind of trade as a DL?

Suh was a freak at his position, much like CJ/JJ at WR, or Eric Berry/Earl Thomas (low 4.4 safeties with instincts are rare). There is no one in this class that just screams physical freak WITH instincts aside from Austin (That change of direction is redunk) who we wont draft.

Depends who you ask. I'm a big 49er fan and draft mock reader, but I'm 0% of a scout myself. Based on the reports, Dion Jordan and Sharrif Floyd both strike me as "freakish" type talents. Here is a tidbit from our own MadDog, who is rarely prone to hyperbole:

Side note: The team(s) that pass on Sharrif Floyd are going to kick themselves for the next 10 years. He is the best player in this draft, and I'm not sure it is close. Knowing the Raiders luck, the Jaguars's front office will have a team of mules kick them in the head and dump the idea of Jordan at 2 and select Floyd. He is a 20 year old monster in the making

And Im not denying Floyd being the real deal... I watched his bowl game and came away thinking we could steal him at #31 because Star and a bunch of other DL were ranked ahead of him before the media "looked at the tape" but now we all know who Floyd is because he is a stud. That being said, he is no where near the stud Suh was, or CJ, or Berry... and Im saying this in the context of having to trade 3-4 picks to get him. There just isn't that "Sure thing" this draft that justifies 3-4 picks.
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Depends who you ask. I'm a big 49er fan and draft mock reader, but I'm 0% of a scout myself. Based on the reports, Dion Jordan and Sharrif Floyd both strike me as "freakish" type talents. Here is a tidbit from our own MadDog, who is rarely prone to hyperbole:

Side note: The team(s) that pass on Sharrif Floyd are going to kick themselves for the next 10 years. He is the best player in this draft, and I'm not sure it is close. Knowing the Raiders luck, the Jaguars's front office will have a team of mules kick them in the head and dump the idea of Jordan at 2 and select Floyd. He is a 20 year old monster in the making

Yeah, I've read a lot of different things on Floyd - he is very athletic for a DT, but not big enough to play NT. He is much younger than the other top DE/DT (Star = 23, Ziggy = 23, Dion Jordan = 23, Richardson = 24, Floyd = 20). His best fit is probably in a 4-3 because I doubt he can be as effective at DE with his short arms (he's the only defensive lineman prospect I know of with arms shorter than 32"). Arm length isn't everything and Floyd has powerful hands, but it definitely helps with shedding blockers, especially on the outside when going up against tackles that often have 34-36 inch arms (even longer in DJ Fluker's case). I've also read that a lot of the hype concerning Floyd is coming from the media after he had a big bowl game, but the production (especially sacks) isn't really there which could suggest that his short arms limit how effective he can be. He's young, so he will probably be better at 23 than these guys, but his arms probably aren't getting much longer which might limit his upside. Even if he fit our system, I don't think it would make sense to give up whatever it took to get to the top 3. I'd probably rather have Richardson since he can play DE and DT like Justin Smith even though he's 24 and has some past injuries.

Dion Jordan is more of a freak in my opinion. He's big, fast, pretty long (not as long as Ansah), and very athletic. He appears more agile and is a better bender than Ansah right now and he's good in coverage. I don't see him ever bulking up enough to play 3-4 DE, but he's a solid OLB and might be able to move up in the nickle to rush opposite Aldon Smith. Ansah probably has as much upside as Jordan and could possibly develop into a 3-4 DE. He has a lot more bulk than Jordan, longer arms (35 1/8 vs 33 7/8), and as much straight line speed, but they are projected at different positions. It's hard not to like the idea of a 6'5 290 pound 3-4 long-armed DE who can run in the 4.6's which Ansah might become.
Well Maiocco is writing that getting #14 will cost 31+34 or 31+61+74+128.

I wish he would stop speculating and putting it in print. I feel like if enough media people and football experts promoted the philosophy that the old chart is useless and teams trading down from the top 15 shouldn't expect that much, it would be more likely to come true....

http://www.csnbayarea.com/blog/matt-maiocco/quotable-49ers-shake-it-during-draft
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Well Maiocco is writing that getting #14 will cost 31+34 or 31+61+74+128.

I wish he would stop speculating and putting it in print. I feel like if enough media people and football experts promoted the philosophy that the old chart is useless and teams trading down from the top 15 shouldn't expect that much, it would be more likely to come true....

http://www.csnbayarea.com/blog/matt-maiocco/quotable-49ers-shake-it-during-draft

Knowing Baalke it'll cost us 31 and a candy bar.

The only way I think a draft calculator would actually work is on the potential upside vs pick value which means each draft the calculator would be different. In this draft it should be more like the new one whereas last year it was more like the old one.
Originally posted by GoNiners:
Originally posted by fryet:
You can see it linked in the following link. In addition, by this new valuation, the 49ers have the most draft capital in the 2013 draft, higher than teams with much higher picks in the draft.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/74658/about-that-old-nfl-draft-pick-value-chart

This new valuation does not put as much value in the higher picks, and puts more value in the mid and lower picks. The creator was basing it on analysis of historical data and the likelihood of a team drafting a useful player at the pick.

Now from a 49er fan perspective, I like a chart that says 49ers are #1 with draft value versus the old system that said that they were 17th. The challenge is finding a team that has a high pick that would agree to trade based on the new chart. Maybe the Raiders? From what I hear, they don't have that many picks. The following trade would be possible under the new chart:

Raiders Give:
#3 Overall (worth 401.3 points)

49ers Give:
#31 (worth 203)
#93 (101.1)
#157 (60)
#237 (sub-39)

The 49ers would still have a total of 4 picks in the top 3 rounds, so the 49ers can still get more quality players. The Raiders would be able to draft 3 additional players to fill their myriad holes.

One question I have, is if the 49ers could make such a trade, would you do it? Sharif Floyd would be the most likely player to select at #3 overall.

or maybe Dion Jordan? We'll need someone to replace Justin Smith. I'd be happy with Sharif though
Jordan would be amazing he's still light right now. But he could bulk up, dude just reminds me of Aldon. So we'd have two aldon smiths on the same team YEAH like having willis and willis jr in bowman. Don't play with my emotions.... I still think the eagles get him they need a passrush and they need a Lt so it's hard but I think that kid has all the tools to be elite passrusher.