Top Outside Linebacker Short List - 4/17/13

Here is the OLB short list. Many of the smaller DEs in my previous DE list can play OLB in the 3-4 so you can use both lists to search for the best potential OLB. I used the same method for measurables and passive stats as in the DE list. I also added a sleeper pick Phillip Steward from Houston who isn't projected to be drafted. I just wanted to see where he landed.

Overall rankings:

1 *Jarvis Jones, Georgia 2.59
2 Khaseem Greene, Rutgers 2.23
3 Jamie Collins, Southern Mississippi 2.23
4 Sio Moore, UConn 2.08
5 *Barkevious Mingo, LSU 2.04
6 Zavier Gooden, Missouri 1.95
7 John Simon, Ohio St. 1.89
8 Gerald Hodges, Penn St. 1.83
9 Arthur Brown, Kansas State 1.81
10 Phillip Steward, Houston 1.70
11 Dion Jordan, Oregon 1.61
12 Brandon Jenkins, Florida State 1.59
13 Cornelius Washington, Georgia 1.38



* Junior

Active Stats: (60% Weighting)

1 *Jarvis Jones, Georgia 3.31
2 Khaseem Greene, Rutgers 2.33
3 Jamie Collins, Southern Mississippi 2.13
4 Sio Moore, UConn 1.85
5 Phillip Steward, Houston 1.75
6 Zavier Gooden, Missouri 1.66
7 Arthur Brown, Kansas State 1.66
8 John Simon, Ohio St. 1.60
9 *Barkevious Mingo, LSU 1.59
10 Gerald Hodges, Penn St. 1.58
11 Brandon Jenkins, Florida State 1.45
12 Dion Jordan, Oregon 1.04
13 Cornelius Washington, Georgia 0.73

Passive Stats Ranking (15% weighting)

Team Data Used: (75% Passing/ 25% Rushing)
0 - 1.5pts TDs passing allowed (4 - 38 TDs)
0 - 1.5pts Yds/Att (5.0- 9.3 yds/att)
0 - .5pt TDs allowed rushing (5 -37 TDs)
0 - .5pt Yds/Rush Att (2.43 - 6.7 yds/rush att)


1 Brandon Jenkins, Florida State 3.02
2 Khaseem Greene, Rutgers 2.99
3 *Barkevious Mingo, LSU 2.99
4 Gerald Hodges, Penn St. 2.84
5 Sio Moore, UConn 2.80
6 John Simon, Ohio St. 2.74
7 Dion Jordan, Oregon 2.7
8 *Jarvis Jones, Georgia 2.5
9 Cornelius Washington, Georgia 2.5
10 Arthur Brown, Kansas State 2.45
11 Zavier Gooden, Missouri 2.04
12 Phillip Steward, Houston 1.9
13 Jamie Collins, Southern Mississippi 1.40

Measurables (25% weighting)

Data used: Height: 0 - .5pts (72.5- 78.5 in)
Weight 0 -.5pts (238 - 278 lbs)
20yd shuttle 0 - .75pt (4.03 - 4.59 secs)
Vertical 0-.75pt (29.5 - 42 in)
40yd 0 - .5pt (4.43 - 5.00 secs)
3-cone drill 0 -.5pt (6.69 -7.85 secs)
Broad jump 0 - .5pt (105 - 132 in)



1 Jamie Collins, Southern Mississippi 2.96
2 Zavier Gooden, Missouri 2.58
3 *Barkevious Mingo, LSU 2.53
4 Dion Jordan, Oregon 2.3
5 Cornelius Washington, Georgia 2.25
6 Sio Moore, UConn 2.19
7 John Simon, Ohio St. 2.07
8 Gerald Hodges, Penn St. 1.85
9 Arthur Brown, Kansas State 1.78
10 Khaseem Greene, Rutgers 1.52
11 Phillip Steward, Houston 1.43
12 Brandon Jenkins, Florida State 1.08
13 *Jarvis Jones, Georgia 0.91

Next up: Defensive Tackles!

You can also see the short lists for Corners, Safeties, Defensive Ends here:
http://moneyballer.blogspot.com/

Curious what weight you put into your rankings. Are you projecting those 10 dudes to be better overall prospects than Dion Jordan?

Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Curious what weight you put into your rankings. Are you projecting those 10 dudes to be better overall prospects than Dion Jordan?

The weightings are just based on quantitative measures so there may be things it won't pick up. Jordan was ranked #1 on GBN Draft Report, but wasn't as productive as the other players so that hurt his ranking. 60% Active stats / 15% Passive stats (team success in this case) / 25% Measurables

Dion Jordan's sack & TFL's numbers look solid, but his overall tackles & pass defense stats are meager so I figure those are what brought his active stats down. If there is a reason for those numbers being low (ie. defensive schemes, situational play) then the active stats are overlooking something. Otherwise he's overrated.

Why isn't Trevardo Williams on your list for OLB or DE's, I think he could be a good fit for us

If you are talking about potential outside linebackers for the 49ers, many of the players you list are not going to be 3-4 outside linebackers.

I would take the following players off the list. They are going to be 4-3 outside linebackers.

2 Khaseem Greene, Rutgers 2.23
4 Sio Moore, UConn 2.08
6 Zavier Gooden, Missouri 1.95
8 Gerald Hodges, Penn St. 1.83
9 Arthur Brown, Kansas State 1.81
10 Phillip Steward, Houston 1.70

Thanks. Yeah this is a general list of 3-4 & 4-3 OLB's.. You have a similar breakdown to GBN Report. How do you determine whether someone can be a 3-4 OLB vs 4-3? I would think a 3-4OLB will focus on pass rushing, but the more flexibility the better. I'm curious about Greene & Moore because they seem to be able to do enough on the pass rush side to fit in. I do agree that those players may be better suited for 4-3 OLB, but if let's say they are available to the 49ers would they just be off the 49ers list?

Originally posted by Jd925:
Here is the OLB short list. Many of the smaller DEs in my previous DE list can play OLB in the 3-4 so you can use both lists to search for the best potential OLB. I used the same method for measurables and passive stats as in the DE list. I also added a sleeper pick Phillip Steward from Houston who isn't projected to be drafted. I just wanted to see where he landed.

Overall rankings:

1 *Jarvis Jones, Georgia 2.59
2 Khaseem Greene, Rutgers 2.23
3 Jamie Collins, Southern Mississippi 2.23
4 Sio Moore, UConn 2.08
5 *Barkevious Mingo, LSU 2.04
6 Zavier Gooden, Missouri 1.95
7 John Simon, Ohio St. 1.89
8 Gerald Hodges, Penn St. 1.83
9 Arthur Brown, Kansas State 1.81
10 Phillip Steward, Houston 1.70
11 Dion Jordan, Oregon 1.61
12 Brandon Jenkins, Florida State 1.59
13 Cornelius Washington, Georgia 1.38



* Junior

Active Stats: (60% Weighting)

1 *Jarvis Jones, Georgia 3.31
2 Khaseem Greene, Rutgers 2.33
3 Jamie Collins, Southern Mississippi 2.13
4 Sio Moore, UConn 1.85
5 Phillip Steward, Houston 1.75
6 Zavier Gooden, Missouri 1.66
7 Arthur Brown, Kansas State 1.66
8 John Simon, Ohio St. 1.60
9 *Barkevious Mingo, LSU 1.59
10 Gerald Hodges, Penn St. 1.58
11 Brandon Jenkins, Florida State 1.45
12 Dion Jordan, Oregon 1.04
13 Cornelius Washington, Georgia 0.73

Passive Stats Ranking (15% weighting)

Team Data Used: (75% Passing/ 25% Rushing)
0 - 1.5pts TDs passing allowed (4 - 38 TDs)
0 - 1.5pts Yds/Att (5.0- 9.3 yds/att)
0 - .5pt TDs allowed rushing (5 -37 TDs)
0 - .5pt Yds/Rush Att (2.43 - 6.7 yds/rush att)


1 Brandon Jenkins, Florida State 3.02
2 Khaseem Greene, Rutgers 2.99
3 *Barkevious Mingo, LSU 2.99
4 Gerald Hodges, Penn St. 2.84
5 Sio Moore, UConn 2.80
6 John Simon, Ohio St. 2.74
7 Dion Jordan, Oregon 2.7
8 *Jarvis Jones, Georgia 2.5
9 Cornelius Washington, Georgia 2.5
10 Arthur Brown, Kansas State 2.45
11 Zavier Gooden, Missouri 2.04
12 Phillip Steward, Houston 1.9
13 Jamie Collins, Southern Mississippi 1.40

Measurables (25% weighting)

Data used: Height: 0 - .5pts (72.5- 78.5 in)
Weight 0 -.5pts (238 - 278 lbs)
20yd shuttle 0 - .75pt (4.03 - 4.59 secs)
Vertical 0-.75pt (29.5 - 42 in)
40yd 0 - .5pt (4.43 - 5.00 secs)
3-cone drill 0 -.5pt (6.69 -7.85 secs)
Broad jump 0 - .5pt (105 - 132 in)



1 Jamie Collins, Southern Mississippi 2.96
2 Zavier Gooden, Missouri 2.58
3 *Barkevious Mingo, LSU 2.53
4 Dion Jordan, Oregon 2.3
5 Cornelius Washington, Georgia 2.25
6 Sio Moore, UConn 2.19
7 John Simon, Ohio St. 2.07
8 Gerald Hodges, Penn St. 1.85
9 Arthur Brown, Kansas State 1.78
10 Khaseem Greene, Rutgers 1.52
11 Phillip Steward, Houston 1.43
12 Brandon Jenkins, Florida State 1.08
13 *Jarvis Jones, Georgia 0.91

Next up: Defensive Tackles!

You can also see the short lists for Corners, Safeties, Defensive Ends here:
http://moneyballer.blogspot.com/

Thanks JD I like your work and can hardly wait to see the DTs.

Originally posted by Jd925:

Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Curious what weight you put into your rankings. Are you projecting those 10 dudes to be better overall prospects than Dion Jordan?

The weightings are just based on quantitative measures so there may be things it won't pick up. Jordan was ranked #1 on GBN Draft Report, but wasn't as productive as the other players so that hurt his ranking. 60% Active stats / 15% Passive stats (team success in this case) / 25% Measurables

Dion Jordan's sack & TFL's numbers look solid, but his overall tackles & pass defense stats are meager so I figure those are what brought his active stats down. If there is a reason for those numbers being low (ie. defensive schemes, situational play) then the active stats are overlooking something. Otherwise he's overrated.

You didn't quite answer my question, which is this: Your seemingly sophisticated method spit out Dion Jordan as the #11 OLB prospect. Do you agree with what it spit out? Are there ten OLBs you would draft ahead of Jordan if you were a GM?

Originally posted by Jd925:
Thanks. Yeah this is a general list of 3-4 & 4-3 OLB's.. You have a similar breakdown to GBN Report. How do you determine whether someone can be a 3-4 OLB vs 4-3? I would think a 3-4OLB will focus on pass rushing, but the more flexibility the better. I'm curious about Greene & Moore because they seem to be able to do enough on the pass rush side to fit in. I do agree that those players may be better suited for 4-3 OLB, but if let's say they are available to the 49ers would they just be off the 49ers list?

If you are taking about the list of players that I posted, I would say definitely off the board as 3-4 linebackers.

Off the board completely, no. Some of them might be able to play inside linebacker in the the 3-4.

We have one first team All Pro outside linebacker and one 2nd team All Pro outside linebacker on our defense.

Ahmad Brooks 6-3 259

Aldon Smith 6-4 258

That is good place to start when looking at potential 3-4 OLB.

Originally posted by NTeply49:
Why isn't Trevardo Williams on your list for OLB or DE's, I think he could be a good fit for us

Hey do you think is better Trevardo Williams or Jamie Collins?

Collins but not by much. Collins is more of a complete OLB while Williams is more of a speedy tweener pass rushing specialist who would be great at the end in passing situations. Williams should be available much later in the draft so he is the better value.

Originally posted by NTeply49:
Collins but not by much. Collins is more of a complete OLB while Williams is more of a speedy tweener pass rushing specialist who would be great at the end in passing situations. Williams should be available much later in the draft so he is the better value.

Hey Williams rates a 1.85 so he'd be ranked 8th. If I weight the measurables more Williams would be higher. I may do that on my final analysis, but sticking with the significant production emphasis just for now. Regards.

Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
You didn't quite answer my question, which is this: Your seemingly sophisticated method spit out Dion Jordan as the #11 OLB prospect. Do you agree with what it spit out? Are there ten OLBs you would draft ahead of Jordan if you were a GM?

As a GM I'd do a much more extensive analysis. If I had a robust model I would definitely use it. It's more objective and if there something 'subjective' I think it's not picking up I'd find a way to add it into the model. If the mocks have Jordan in the top 10 or 15, there is likely something this model is overemphasizing or not picking up. He did miss some time due to injury. Otherwise I think he's overrated, but probably not as much as this model suggests. I wanted to make sure the model emphasized production as a starting point, but I might notch it back so that it's 60/40 instead of 75/25 in favor of production vs measurables. However I have a feeling Jordan will still be ranked between #5-10. I'd be more comfortable with that. I want the model to be closer to the projected mock rankings, because I don't think projected rankings are usually that far off so I might adjust the model and hopefully get a slight advantage by emphasizing production numbers. If a player is picked in the top 13, there is around a 84% chance they will start 3yrs/99.5% he'll be on a team for 3yrs. There is a 16% chance that player will disappoint so no guarantees even in the top 13. By and large I do agree that the discrepancy with Jordan suggests I should revisit the weightings. I might do that at the end after I get through most of the positions I want to. Regards.

Originally posted by Jd925:

Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
You didn't quite answer my question, which is this: Your seemingly sophisticated method spit out Dion Jordan as the #11 OLB prospect. Do you agree with what it spit out? Are there ten OLBs you would draft ahead of Jordan if you were a GM?

As a GM I'd do a much more extensive analysis. If I had a robust model I would definitely use it. It's more objective and if there something 'subjective' I think it's not picking up I'd find a way to add it into the model. If the mocks have Jordan in the top 10 or 15, there is likely something this model is overemphasizing or not picking up. He did miss some time due to injury. Otherwise I think he's overrated, but probably not as much as this model suggests. I wanted to make sure the model emphasized production as a starting point, but I might notch it back so that it's 60/40 instead of 75/25 in favor of production vs measurables. However I have a feeling Jordan will still be ranked between #5-10. I'd be more comfortable with that. I want the model to be closer to the projected mock rankings, because I don't think projected rankings are usually that far off so I might adjust the model and hopefully get a slight advantage by emphasizing production numbers. If a player is picked in the top 13, there is around a 84% chance they will start 3yrs/99.5% he'll be on a team for 3yrs. There is a 16% chance that player will disappoint so no guarantees even in the top 13. By and large I do agree that the discrepancy with Jordan suggests I should revisit the weightings. I might do that at the end after I get through most of the positions I want to. Regards.

Thanks for the thoughtful response. It's worth noting that part of the appeal with Jordan as such a high prospect is his versatility and athleticism.

Originally posted by Jd925:
The weightings are just based on quantitative measures so there may be things it won't pick up. Jordan was ranked #1 on GBN Draft Report, but wasn't as productive as the other players so that hurt his ranking. 60% Active stats / 15% Passive stats (team success in this case) / 25% Measurables

Dion Jordan's sack & TFL's numbers look solid, but his overall tackles & pass defense stats are meager so I figure those are what brought his active stats down. If there is a reason for those numbers being low (ie. defensive schemes, situational play) then the active stats are overlooking something. Otherwise he's overrated.

This is the exact reason why I don't like your method. Stats are extremely dependent on scheme and situation. You certainly can't put 4-3 OLBs in the same list as 3-4 ones because they have very different roles and their stats will look different.

I think your method is only valid comparing players playing the same position in similar schemes. Even then I think measurable should be more like 35-40% because they isolate the player from the team.