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My predictions about niners' strategy

I can live with these predictions, however I dont agree 100% with them. I still believe we sill go DL at #31 or #34, and I dont see a lot of trading up/down/around, as we can stand pat,and get guys to help us. I do however (based on who has visited) think there's a contingency plan in case we dont get a top safety early, guys like Duke Williams and DJ hayden will be there after the 2nd rd., and could answer questions in our secondary. Nice thread though, I like your incites.
Originally posted by buck:
Here is point 4.

"4) Risks will be taken (Patterson, Matheu, Hayden, Kelce). With so many draft picks and enough talent already on the team, a few medical/character risks are likely."

Patterson was only mentioned as one of the four possible risks we could take.

That was a pretty bold deduction on your part. Let me guess, you; you would like it if we draft Patterson.

Nothing bold about it at all. Everyone knows Patterson is a 1st round pick unless you know something noone knows about.
Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
No, Patterson's stock has been falling, and it's not impossible that he falls to 31. He's a risk because he's so raw, despite all his talent


Where did you read that ? The fact that he is raw has always been the case. I can't believe for a moment he will fall that far.
  • buck
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Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
Most of RJF's snaps came as a DE when Justin Smith went out. He played only a little bit at NT early on

That is not true.

Ricky Jean Francois played 102 snaps at DE in the regular season.
He played 190 snaps at nose tackle in the regular season.

The stats are from Pro Football Focus, which tracks every snap played.

edit: His total snap count during the regular season was 292.
[ Edited by buck on Apr 16, 2013 at 9:19 AM ]
Originally posted by buck:
Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
Most of RJF's snaps came as a DE when Justin Smith went out. He played only a little bit at NT early on

That is not true.

Ricky Jean Francois played 102 snaps at DE in the regular season.
He played 190 snaps at nose tackle in the regular season.

The stats are from Pro Football Focus, which tracks every snap played.

edit: His total snap count during the regular season was 292.

Yup, seems like you're right. I'll retract my statement
Originally posted by Rascal:
Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
No, Patterson's stock has been falling, and it's not impossible that he falls to 31. He's a risk because he's so raw, despite all his talent


Where did you read that ? The fact that he is raw has always been the case. I can't believe for a moment he will fall that far.

Several sources have mentioned it. It's been said that his interviews have been sub-par. But who knows, anything that comes out around this time is usually not to be believed.
  • buck
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Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
Several sources have mentioned it. It's been said that his interviews have been sub-par. But who knows, anything that comes out around this time is usually not to be believed.

Who knows where he will get picked, but there are plenty of questions about Patterson.

One year wonder.
Three schools in three years.
Bad interviews
Questionable work habits
Bad understanding of route tree
Does not get the separation he should with his speed.

But, at the end of the day, I still think he is taken in the first round.
  • buck
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Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
Yup, seems like you're right. I'll retract my statement


Not a problem.

The fact is that team had a nose tackle on the field for about 50% of the snaps, which is a substantially more than 30% or 31%.

There have been many draft projections made based upon the erroneous assumption that Sopoaga's snap count equals the team's nose tackle snap count.

I do think that the extending of Ian Williams indicates a certain level of confidence that he can man the nose, but I am not sure how deep that confidence is.

Just think, we will find out soon.
[ Edited by buck on Apr 16, 2013 at 9:40 AM ]
Let's bet on who gets the most correct:
1) Got beat deep even with Goldson (and Whitner), now a priority position of need. Will get a safety who can step in and play well immediately, in 2d or 3d round.
2) Agree
3) Agree
4) One or two, including Lattimore
5) DL is key -- injured and gassed in the playoffs, Justin is nearing the end. Will look for a DE in 1st half of draft
6) NT will be taken early, 2d or 3d round. Need the NT to stop the run and put opponents in third and long so he can get off the field. Stopping the run is key to the defense
7) Agree
8) No need, except for a TE. Backup OL's can be picked up very late. Will pick up a fast WR mid- to late.
10[9?] Yes, late rounders, small school or big (Boone)
11) Yes, its a need. Need the DE rushman, and the NT to hold the middle or even get a good push so the LB's can get pressure.
12) Agree
Drafting done in the past with past regimes cannot be factored into how this regime will draft. An example, Nolan and Scott only drafted big bodied players, they never would have drafted a Hunter or even a LMJ.

Drafting a saftey late, like Dashon or even Mr. Funky chicken dance himself, Merton Hanks, they sat on the bench 2+ years before they got to the level they did. They watched and learned. Because of the edition of NA, it gives them flexibility I grant you that, they could move Culliver to Safety if necessary and draft another CB like Amerson or Mathieu later. Or they could still go with a Safety earlier. And a corner later. The same theory of drafting a saftey later could be applied to WR if you are going to use past history. John Taylor, Dwight Clark, or T.O.

Also, Baalke, in the early rounds has shown a penchant for drafting players that produced and not one year wonders. Like Aldon, produced one year and in an injured filled last year that required him to jump around the line, still produced somewhat. Kentwann Balmer types need not apply in the early rounds. Hunter, LMJ and Kaep also produced through several seasons.

As for the theory about the DT/NT only playing 30%, I think it all depends on the talent level of the person they draft, Soap and RJ were late round picks and only asked to do one thing, hold the point of attack and take on blockers on run downs. They were not known as penetrators. If the niners find one that they feel can be like a Suh w/o the baggage, that person might see more than 30%, he may play NT in base then slide over to Justin or McD position in relief. This may not be what they usually ask their man to do, but if the person has the talent, I am sure they will improvise to keep the opponents guessing and having to adapt their schemes. In fact, talent wise, if they get pick one with one of the first two picks, chances are the line will be better than it was in the middle and on the line as a whole.

I still think that a DL is possible, but maybe one to rush the passer if not to handle the middle, if not to relieve Justin or McD, then to relieve the OLB or both. The niners will look at the talent and not be held to conventional wisdom of what the player is labeled, 3T, 5T etc., just like Miller.
Originally posted by buck:
Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
Several sources have mentioned it. It's been said that his interviews have been sub-par. But who knows, anything that comes out around this time is usually not to be believed.

Who knows where he will get picked, but there are plenty of questions about Patterson.

One year wonder.
Three schools in three years.
Bad interviews
Questionable work habits
Bad understanding of route tree
Does not get the separation he should with his speed.

But, at the end of the day, I still think he is taken in the first round.

49ers tend to draft more on medical condition than mental condition when they take a chance. Even though because of the CBA, you won't pay as bad monetarily if you draft one early, you still don't want to waste a pick. The other big thing you pointed out is one year wonder. Like I said according to a lot of people, this years wr class is supposedly a C+ in talent level on paper. Though in the end you judge on production in the NFL, when drafting iti is done on paper with evals. A lot of people in this web, maybe elevating them cause we feel we have always been lacking at wr all these years and with all the misses in FA with Moss, Edwards, etc., they desparartely want to grab one early to make themselves feel better about the team.

We will all see and hear eventually, I maybe wrong in the end since Baalke is involved-haha. Still he so far has drafted bpa with need hand in hand with past history in the early round(s).
  • buck
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Originally posted by WildBill:
49ers tend to draft more on medical condition than mental condition when they take a chance. Even though because of the CBA, you won't pay as bad monetarily if you draft one early, you still don't want to waste a pick. The other big thing you pointed out is one year wonder. Like I said according to a lot of people, this years wr class is supposedly a C+ in talent level on paper. Though in the end you judge on production in the NFL, when drafting iti is done on paper with evals. A lot of people in this web, maybe elevating them cause we feel we have always been lacking at wr all these years and with all the misses in FA with Moss, Edwards, etc., they desparartely want to grab one early to make themselves feel better about the team.

We will all see and hear eventually, I maybe wrong in the end since Baalke is involved-haha. Still he so far has drafted bpa with need hand in hand with past history in the early round(s).


You are right. Baalke has repeatedly said the three most concerns are:
1. medicals
2. Intangibles (right attitudes and prespectives, etc)
3. game tape over the player's career

He has said the combine is part of the process.

But, he was talking about all picks, not just potential risks.
4. post season--combine, all-star games, etc.
My predictions:

1. We currently have 5 picks in the first 3 rounds. I predict (desperately hope) we use some of our round 4-7 picks to get at least 1 more pick in the first 3 rounds.

2. In the first 3 rounds, we will pick a DL, a CB, and a WR.

3. Through trades, we will pick up at least 1 extra pick next year.

4. We will pick at least 1 player whose draft stock falls for either medical or character issues.
I agree with most of the OP's list. But the Niners will have to get at least one more QB for camp. It won't have to come from the draft, but as far as we know they've made no invitations to any other free agent QBs after McCoy.
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
I think Cordarrelle Patterson is the only WR we would take in the first two rounds.

I absolutely disagree with this. There's a bevy of quality receivers in the 1st and 2nd rounds, and the 49ers have already talked with a couple of them. I wouldn't want them to draft Patterson to begin with.