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My predictions about niners' strategy

Rollin, you're right on with the safety position. I think of Reggie Smith, who was a third rounder, and Goldson went in the 4th. If the 49ers do wait for a safety in the later rounds it opens up the draft board to other possibilities. I think some wheeling and dealing will take place, if it does the 49ers will be in the center of the action.
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
I think Cordarrelle Patterson is the only WR we would take in the first two rounds.


I am a huge fan of Cordarelle Patterson, but this guy is going to be a top 15 pick easy.

I would say he is the ONLY WR pick in the 1st as compared to anyone else, even Tavon Austin. 2nd round will be another group of receivers already.
Originally posted by RishikeshA:
Rollin, you're right on with the safety position. I think of Reggie Smith, who was a third rounder, and Goldson went in the 4th. If the 49ers do wait for a safety in the later rounds it opens up the draft board to other possibilities. I think some wheeling and dealing will take place, if it does the 49ers will be in the center of the action.

True it would open up possibilities and mean we could probably do some trading down but when you are looking at a 3rd-4th round safety it could take 2-3 years before they are ready to go like with Goldson. If we plan on plugging someone in day 1 I think we should take someone at 31 and 34 and honestly even then it's going to be a lot to ask. S is a hard position to transition for college... it's not like ILB or RB. Not saying it can't be done but not too many rookie safeties that are chosen in the top 10-15 or so come in and have an impact right away. Don't see a lot of late 1st rounders or 2nd rounders coming in and playing and doing well much less a 3rd or 4th rounder.
Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
1) The team doesn't like early safeties and plans on drafting a few later in the draft
2) The team plans to use a late 2nd on a CB, and knows a good one will be available (Hayden, Alford, Wreh-Wilson, Matheau, etc.)
3) The team plans on using most of the 14 picks. I'm guessing at least 10
4) Risks will be taken (Patterson, Matheu, Hayden, Kelce). With so many draft picks and enough talent already on the team, a few medical/character risks are likely
5) DL is not as big of a concern to the team as the media thinks. The team will not reach for a DE
6) A NT will not be taken, or will be taken late. As pointed out earlier, the NT simply doesn't play in our system enough to warrant an early pick
7) At least 3-4 DBs will be drafted
8) Offense will be targeted earlier than most think
10) The team will look for small school, late round OTs, as they have done in the past
11) Pass rush is a bigger need than the media realizes. Don't be surprised to see an OLB taken early (top 5 picks)
12) No QB, no interior OL

I have reasons for all these guesses, but they are obviously just guesses :)


I believe the same. Been arguing for the last month that we'll draft WR in the first round, glad to see there are a few like minded people round here. Whoever Baalke picks I'll be right behind him 100%
Originally posted by smithc28:
Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
1) The team doesn't like early safeties and plans on drafting a few later in the draft
2) The team plans to use a late 2nd on a CB, and knows a good one will be available (Hayden, Alford, Wreh-Wilson, Matheau, etc.)
3) The team plans on using most of the 14 picks. I'm guessing at least 10
4) Risks will be taken (Patterson, Matheu, Hayden, Kelce). With so many draft picks and enough talent already on the team, a few medical/character risks are likely
5) DL is not as big of a concern to the team as the media thinks. The team will not reach for a DE
6) A NT will not be taken, or will be taken late. As pointed out earlier, the NT simply doesn't play in our system enough to warrant an early pick
7) At least 3-4 DBs will be drafted
8) Offense will be targeted earlier than most think
10) The team will look for small school, late round OTs, as they have done in the past
11) Pass rush is a bigger need than the media realizes. Don't be surprised to see an OLB taken early (top 5 picks)
12) No QB, no interior OL

I have reasons for all these guesses, but they are obviously just guesses :)


I believe the same. Been arguing for the last month that we'll draft WR in the first round, glad to see there are a few like minded people round here. Whoever Baalke picks I'll be right behind him 100%

Where in his list does he say we will draft a WR in the first round?
  • buck
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Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
1) The team doesn't like early safeties and plans on drafting a few later in the draft
2) The team plans to use a late 2nd on a CB, and knows a good one will be available (Hayden, Alford, Wreh-Wilson, Matheau, etc.)
3) The team plans on using most of the 14 picks. I'm guessing at least 10
4) Risks will be taken (Patterson, Matheu, Hayden, Kelce). With so many draft picks and enough talent already on the team, a few medical/character risks are likely
5) DL is not as big of a concern to the team as the media thinks. The team will not reach for a DE
6) A NT will not be taken, or will be taken late. As pointed out earlier, the NT simply doesn't play in our system enough to warrant an early pick
7) At least 3-4 DBs will be drafted
8) Offense will be targeted earlier than most think
10) The team will look for small school, late round OTs, as they have done in the past
11) Pass rush is a bigger need than the media realizes. Don't be surprised to see an OLB taken early (top 5 picks)
12) No QB, no interior OL

I have reasons for all these guesses, but they are obviously just guesses :)

1. Baalke has only been on the job two years. What the team has done in the past now longer applies..
2. Possibly--but maybe later.
3. Yes, I also think we will take around 10 players.
4. Baalke puts good medicals and character pretty high on his list of qualifications, but maybe one like Hayden if he gets a good medical.
5. I do not the team will reach for a defensive end either, but I do think the team will draft one early and maybe one late. .
6. Nose tackle played almost 50% of snaps last year. I think we take a nose tackle.
7. Yes. I agree.
8. I agree at least a tight end.
9. ???? you have no nine on your list
10. I think I agree. Offensive tackle in mid (4th) or late round (5th, 6th, or 7th)
11. I agree wholeheartedly. Maybe Jaime Collins in the third.
12. yes and yes.
[ Edited by buck on Apr 16, 2013 at 12:57 AM ]
  • buck
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Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Where in his list does he say we will draft a WR in the first round?

Good point.
Originally posted by buck:
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Where in his list does he say we will draft a WR in the first round?

Good point.

I guess is more of a deduction from Point 4) when Patterson was mentioned who is widely regarded as a 1st round WR.
Originally posted by gold49digger:
Can you justify the last 2 for me?Besides the qb, I understand that.

With Looney, Kilgore and Netter on the team, I don't think we spend any more picks on interior line positions. Possibly a supplemental 7th. We actually have quite a few holes to fill, and I think this is one of the positions with good depth. Also I think Kilgore is pegged as the future starting C.

The team wanted Bruce Irvin with the 1st pick last year. Nothing has really changed in the pass rush department. Aldon is our only true outside pass rusher, and if he's not healthy, or not on his game we essentially can't pressure the QB from the outside. This was apparent in the SB. Jamie Collins with our late 2nd would not surprise me.
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
1) The team doesn't like early safeties and plans on drafting a few later in the draft
2) The team plans to use a late 2nd on a CB, and knows a good one will be available (Hayden, Alford, Wreh-Wilson, Matheau, etc.)
3) The team plans on using most of the 14 picks. I'm guessing at least 10
4) Risks will be taken (Patterson, Matheu, Hayden, Kelce). With so many draft picks and enough talent already on the team, a few medical/character risks are likely
5) DL is not as big of a concern to the team as the media thinks. The team will not reach for a DE
6) A NT will not be taken, or will be taken late. As pointed out earlier, the NT simply doesn't play in our system enough to warrant an early pick
7) At least 3-4 DBs will be drafted
8) Offense will be targeted earlier than most think
10) The team will look for small school, late round OTs, as they have done in the past
11) Pass rush is a bigger need than the media realizes. Don't be surprised to see an OLB taken early (top 5 picks)
12) No QB, no interior OL

I have reasons for all these guesses, but they are obviously just guesses :)

Wow, this almost perfectly mirrors all my thoughts about our strategy. I'm not as sure we won't take an NT though. The common rebuttal to your "NT aren't important in our system" argument has been hashed out ad nauseum on this board, and it basically goes like, "That's because we've never had a good one; a good one would do wonders for our D and would play more than 31% of snaps like Sopoaga."

I still think Jesse Williams or Brandon Williams are strong possibilities in round 2.

Sorry, Jesse Williams is an exception. I see him as a DE in our system thought. But yes, Williams is a very strong possibility
Originally posted by Rascal:
Exactly my thinking too. When you say risks will be taken on players like Patterson, are you saying you think the 9ers will trade up that high ? We are talking about possibly a top 10 pick here.

No, Patterson's stock has been falling, and it's not impossible that he falls to 31. He's a risk because he's so raw, despite all his talent
Originally posted by buck:
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Wow, this almost perfectly mirrors all my thoughts about our strategy. I'm not as sure we won't take an NT though. The common rebuttal to your "NT aren't important in our system" argument has been hashed out ad nauseum on this board, and it basically goes like, "That's because we've never had a good one; a good one would do wonders for our D and would play more than 31% of snaps like Sopoaga."

I still think Jesse Williams or Brandon Williams are strong possibilities in round 2.

The notion that the nose tackle only played 30% or 31% of the defensive snaps is wrong; way wrong.

According to Matt Barrows the team played 1057 defensive plays.

Three players lined up a nose tackle during the regular season:Isaac Sopoaga, Ricky Jean Francois, and Ian Williams.

Snaps played at nose tackle
Ian Williams 3
Ricky Jean-Francois 190
Isaac Sopoaga 335
total nose tackle snap 528

SF had a nose tackle on the field for 49.95% of the regular season defensive plays

SF had a nose tackle on the field for about 20% more snaps than most people seem to think.

.I do think that there is a good chance that we will draft a nose tackle in the first three rounds of the draft.

I think Jessie Williams, Brandon Williams, or Montori Hughes could be drafted in the first three, maybe four rounds.

Most of RJF's snaps came as a DE when Justin Smith went out. He played only a little bit at NT early on
Originally posted by SteveYoung:
Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
1) The team doesn't like early safeties and plans on drafting a few later in the draft
2) The team plans to use a late 2nd on a CB, and knows a good one will be available (Hayden, Alford, Wreh-Wilson, Matheau, etc.)
3) The team plans on using most of the 14 picks. I'm guessing at least 10
4) Risks will be taken (Patterson, Matheu, Hayden, Kelce). With so many draft picks and enough talent already on the team, a few medical/character risks are likely
5) DL is not as big of a concern to the team as the media thinks. The team will not reach for a DE
6) A NT will not be taken, or will be taken late. As pointed out earlier, the NT simply doesn't play in our system enough to warrant an early pick
7) At least 3-4 DBs will be drafted
8) Offense will be targeted earlier than most think
10) The team will look for small school, late round OTs, as they have done in the past
11) Pass rush is a bigger need than the media realizes. Don't be surprised to see an OLB taken early (top 5 picks)
12) No QB, no interior OL

I have reasons for all these guesses, but they are obviously just guesses :)

Fantastic post. I agree with everything 100%

Thanks!
Originally posted by buck:
Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
1) The team doesn't like early safeties and plans on drafting a few later in the draft
2) The team plans to use a late 2nd on a CB, and knows a good one will be available (Hayden, Alford, Wreh-Wilson, Matheau, etc.)
3) The team plans on using most of the 14 picks. I'm guessing at least 10
4) Risks will be taken (Patterson, Matheu, Hayden, Kelce). With so many draft picks and enough talent already on the team, a few medical/character risks are likely
5) DL is not as big of a concern to the team as the media thinks. The team will not reach for a DE
6) A NT will not be taken, or will be taken late. As pointed out earlier, the NT simply doesn't play in our system enough to warrant an early pick
7) At least 3-4 DBs will be drafted
8) Offense will be targeted earlier than most think
10) The team will look for small school, late round OTs, as they have done in the past
11) Pass rush is a bigger need than the media realizes. Don't be surprised to see an OLB taken early (top 5 picks)
12) No QB, no interior OL

I have reasons for all these guesses, but they are obviously just guesses :)

1. Baalke has only been on the job two years. What the team has done in the past now longer applies..
2. Possibly--but maybe later.
3. Yes, I also think we will take around 10 players.
4. Baalke puts good medicals and character pretty high on his list of qualifications, but maybe one like Hayden if he gets a good medical.
5. I do not the team will reach for a defensive end either, but I do think the team will draft one early and maybe one late. .
6. Nose tackle played almost 50% of snaps last year. I think we take a nose tackle.
7. Yes. I agree.
8. I agree at least a tight end.
9. ???? you have no nine on your list
10. I think I agree. Offensive tackle in mid (4th) or late round (5th, 6th, or 7th)
11. I agree wholeheartedly. Maybe Jaime Collins in the third.
12. yes and yes.

1. Baalke has had 3 drafts. I'm not talking about the past. I don't think the team likes the current safeties. Mostly because I don't see which one they would think is really BPA at that spot.
4. The team has spent too much time with guys like Kelce and Matheau to overlook the possibility of taking a risk
5. I feel like all the great prospects will be gone by 31. Could be that the remaining players are a reach all the way through the 2nd
6. Signed Dorsey for that, and team seems high on Ian Williams
9. You're right
  • buck
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Originally posted by Rascal:
I guess is more of a deduction from Point 4) when Patterson was mentioned who is widely regarded as a 1st round WR.

Here is point 4.

"4) Risks will be taken (Patterson, Matheu, Hayden, Kelce). With so many draft picks and enough talent already on the team, a few medical/character risks are likely."

Patterson was only mentioned as one of the four possible risks we could take.

That was a pretty bold deduction on your part. Let me guess, you; you would like it if we draft Patterson.
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