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My predictions about niners' strategy

1) The team doesn't like early safeties and plans on drafting a few later in the draft
2) The team plans to use a late 2nd on a CB, and knows a good one will be available (Hayden, Alford, Wreh-Wilson, Matheau, etc.)
3) The team plans on using most of the 14 picks. I'm guessing at least 10
4) Risks will be taken (Patterson, Matheu, Hayden, Kelce). With so many draft picks and enough talent already on the team, a few medical/character risks are likely
5) DL is not as big of a concern to the team as the media thinks. The team will not reach for a DE
6) A NT will not be taken, or will be taken late. As pointed out earlier, the NT simply doesn't play in our system enough to warrant an early pick
7) At least 3-4 DBs will be drafted
8) Offense will be targeted earlier than most think
10) The team will look for small school, late round OTs, as they have done in the past
11) Pass rush is a bigger need than the media realizes. Don't be surprised to see an OLB taken early (top 5 picks)
12) No QB, no interior OL

I have reasons for all these guesses, but they are obviously just guesses :)
Can you justify the last 2 for me?Besides the qb, I understand that.
Here is what I think:

1. FS and DE or vice versa at 31 and 34 but don't rule a trade down from 31 or 34 to mid 2nd

2. TE at 61 or 74, the other could be WR, CB or NT

3. We will likely take a 3rd T in the mid rounds (3-5)

4. We will use extra picks to move up in rounds. So could use a 6 to move up from mid 5th to early 5th. Give a 7 to move up a few spots in the 6th.

5. We will probably trade a pick away completely for pick a round higher in next year's draft. Could also aquire picks next year by trading down this year.

6. We end up with 10 or less picks.

7. We take no QB at all or one late (6-7) with the intention that he ends up on the practice squad as a project. McCoy will likely be the #2, Tolzien 3

8. WR will be taken higher than most expect (High as 61 or 74)

Edit:

9. I won't rule out taking a C but I think we are confident in Looney (maybe Kilgore) at C. Whoever isn't center will backup the RG spot and be 2nd string C if Goodwin is gone or 3rd string if he stays.
[ Edited by Gore_21 on Apr 16, 2013 at 1:47 PM ]
I think Cordarrelle Patterson is the only WR we would take in the first two rounds.
Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
1) The team doesn't like early safeties and plans on drafting a few later in the draft
2) The team plans to use a late 2nd on a CB, and knows a good one will be available (Hayden, Alford, Wreh-Wilson, Matheau, etc.)
3) The team plans on using most of the 14 picks. I'm guessing at least 10
4) Risks will be taken (Patterson, Matheu, Hayden, Kelce). With so many draft picks and enough talent already on the team, a few medical/character risks are likely
5) DL is not as big of a concern to the team as the media thinks. The team will not reach for a DE
6) A NT will not be taken, or will be taken late. As pointed out earlier, the NT simply doesn't play in our system enough to warrant an early pick
7) At least 3-4 DBs will be drafted
8) Offense will be targeted earlier than most think
10) The team will look for small school, late round OTs, as they have done in the past
11) Pass rush is a bigger need than the media realizes. Don't be surprised to see an OLB taken early (top 5 picks)
12) No QB, no interior OL

I have reasons for all these guesses, but they are obviously just guesses :)

Wow, this almost perfectly mirrors all my thoughts about our strategy. I'm not as sure we won't take an NT though. The common rebuttal to your "NT aren't important in our system" argument has been hashed out ad nauseum on this board, and it basically goes like, "That's because we've never had a good one; a good one would do wonders for our D and would play more than 31% of snaps like Sopoaga."

I still think Jesse Williams or Brandon Williams are strong possibilities in round 2.
Exactly my thinking too. When you say risks will be taken on players like Patterson, are you saying you think the 9ers will trade up that high ? We are talking about possibly a top 10 pick here.
Because of the lack of top talent in this draft and with the numerous picks we already have, I predict us picking up at least 2 future picks in this draft through trades, perhaps trading #34 for a 2014 1st round pick, etc.
[ Edited by ElDannMann on Apr 15, 2013 at 9:18 PM ]
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
I think Cordarrelle Patterson is the only WR we would take in the first two rounds.

I would love to have Tavon Austin or Quinton Patton. Both would fit our offense really well. I don't see us trading up for Austin or Patterson though. Patton I could see if we would trade down from 31 or 34 to the mid 2nd. Don't see him making it to 61. Doubt we would pull the trigger at 31 or 34. WR to me though is just a big question mark. We could take one high although it's not needed. I have no idea what we will do. I don't know if we see Kyle Williams as expendable. Nice player but definitely could be upgraded. Hasn't found the end zone much. Would have to find another PR but we do have a lot of options there although Williams might be the best. We know we will keep Crabtree, Boldin and Jenkins. Manningham I would take over Williams. Just doesn't seem like a lot of room for a rookie. Unless we cut Williams he could be like 6th on the chart. Have to factor in special teams as well. Can't activate all 6... whoever plays ST would get the nod.
Originally posted by Gore_21:
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
I think Cordarrelle Patterson is the only WR we would take in the first two rounds.

I would love to have Tavon Austin or Quinton Patton. Both would fit our offense really well. I don't see us trading up for Austin or Patterson though. Patton I could see if we would trade down from 31 or 34 to the mid 2nd. Don't see him making it to 61. Doubt we would pull the trigger at 31 or 34. WR to me though is just a big question mark. We could take one high although it's not needed. I have no idea what we will do. I don't know if we see Kyle Williams as expendable. Nice player but definitely could be upgraded. Hasn't found the end zone much. Would have to find another PR but we do have a lot of options there although Williams might be the best. We know we will keep Crabtree, Boldin and Jenkins. Manningham I would take over Williams. Just doesn't seem like a lot of room for a rookie. Unless we cut Williams he could be like 6th on the chart. Have to factor in special teams as well. Can't activate all 6... whoever plays ST would get the nod.

We'll see what happens with Patterson. He has somehow fallen from the top 10 to the late 20s lately in some places. I believe 27 in MD's latest board, and today Peter King said he'd be a nice fit for the 49ers, and he didn't mention trading up (although he may have implicitly meant we would have to).

Still seems unlikely he will fall to 31, but if concerns about his route running and coachability really make him fall THAT far, I do think the 49ers would take him. Barring that, I think we wait until at least round 3 for a WR.
  • buck
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Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Wow, this almost perfectly mirrors all my thoughts about our strategy. I'm not as sure we won't take an NT though. The common rebuttal to your "NT aren't important in our system" argument has been hashed out ad nauseum on this board, and it basically goes like, "That's because we've never had a good one; a good one would do wonders for our D and would play more than 31% of snaps like Sopoaga."

I still think Jesse Williams or Brandon Williams are strong possibilities in round 2.

The notion that the nose tackle only played 30% or 31% of the defensive snaps is wrong; way wrong.

According to Matt Barrows the team played 1057 defensive plays.

Three players lined up a nose tackle during the regular season:Isaac Sopoaga, Ricky Jean Francois, and Ian Williams.

Snaps played at nose tackle
Ian Williams 3
Ricky Jean-Francois 190
Isaac Sopoaga 335
total nose tackle snap 528

SF had a nose tackle on the field for 49.95% of the regular season defensive plays

SF had a nose tackle on the field for about 20% more snaps than most people seem to think.

.I do think that there is a good chance that we will draft a nose tackle in the first three rounds of the draft.

I think Jessie Williams, Brandon Williams, or Montori Hughes could be drafted in the first three, maybe four rounds.
[ Edited by buck on Apr 15, 2013 at 9:42 PM ]
  • buck
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 10,470
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
I think Cordarrelle Patterson is the only WR we would take in the first two rounds.

I seriously doubt that Patterson is the receiver we draft, if we draft a receiver early.

If Keenan Allen falls, I think we might take him, but a lot depends on his medical records.
Originally posted by buck:
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
I think Cordarrelle Patterson is the only WR we would take in the first two rounds.

I seriously doubt that Patterson is the receiver we draft, if we draft a receiver early.

If Keenan Allen falls, I think we might take him, but a lot depends on his medical records.

I think the chances of Patterson falling to 31 are about 5%, and I don't think we'd trade up high for him. So this is just my fancy way of saying I don't think we'll take a WR in the first two rounds. Unless Patterson miraculously falls. I doubt we'd pass on him.
Closer in agreement with Gore21 than Rollin! My thoughts--

1) 1, 2a, 2b = BPA at FS/CB, TE, OLB (pass rusher) or DT (nose who can also play end). These will all be addressed in first three rounds.

2) At least one WR, and two pass rushers taken (OLB or DE). May move back up into the second or for another 3rd for special players of interest.

3) A player who has played Center and OT, perhaps a small school guy who moved from Center to LT in college career (they seem to like drafting those guys).

4) Another TE late in the draft. They will need competition but could get that as an UFA.
  • buck
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Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
I think the chances of Patterson falling to 31 are about 5%, and I don't think we'd trade up high for him. So this is just my fancy way of saying I don't think we'll take a WR in the first two rounds. Unless Patterson miraculously falls. I doubt we'd pass on him.

It might be all smoke and mirrors, but doubts about Patterson seem to be surging.

One year wonder.
Three schools in three years.
Bad interviews
Questionable work habits
Bad understanding of route tree
Does not get the separation he should with his speed.

He does have an upside, but potential can be overstated.

You do realize that Patterson was #82 among the receivers in FBS football last year.
He had a total of 46 receptions for 778 yards. That is not that good for a 1st round receive.

But, I truly hope he gets picked early. That will push more talent down to us.

I want him and as many quarterbacks as possible taken in the first round.


http://www.cfbstats.com/2012/leader/national/player/split01/category03/sort01.html
[ Edited by buck on Apr 15, 2013 at 10:01 PM ]
Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
1) The team doesn't like early safeties and plans on drafting a few later in the draft
2) The team plans to use a late 2nd on a CB, and knows a good one will be available (Hayden, Alford, Wreh-Wilson, Matheau, etc.)
3) The team plans on using most of the 14 picks. I'm guessing at least 10
4) Risks will be taken (Patterson, Matheu, Hayden, Kelce). With so many draft picks and enough talent already on the team, a few medical/character risks are likely
5) DL is not as big of a concern to the team as the media thinks. The team will not reach for a DE
6) A NT will not be taken, or will be taken late. As pointed out earlier, the NT simply doesn't play in our system enough to warrant an early pick
7) At least 3-4 DBs will be drafted
8) Offense will be targeted earlier than most think
10) The team will look for small school, late round OTs, as they have done in the past
11) Pass rush is a bigger need than the media realizes. Don't be surprised to see an OLB taken early (top 5 picks)
12) No QB, no interior OL

I have reasons for all these guesses, but they are obviously just guesses :)

Fantastic post. I agree with everything 100%