Top Safety Short List - 4/13/13

Using a similar analysis to the Top Corner Short List, I ranked the safeties. There was no distinction made between FS and SS although if I did I would put more emphasis on certain stats depending on the type of safety. For passive stats, I figured the safeties are the captains of the secondary so I used team pass defense as a proxy for success because I had no individual stats for: completion % against/1st downs allowed/TDs allowed. The two main metrics in the team defense category was Yds/Att and pass TDs allowed. I understand that having a defensive front that creates pressure could influence these stats, but I didn't adjust for that in this analysis. For measurables I just used Height &Weight along with 40time & 3cone drill because according to Draftmetrics those combine numbers are the most correlated with 3yr starting success. (Interestingly enough bench press was negatively correlated meaning that the more a safety bench pressed compared to the avg, the less chance that safety had of success. On the other hand for cornerbacks, bench press numbers were a fairly significant factor.) Here is the list:

Overall Rankings (60% Active Stats, 15% Passive Stats, 25% Measurables)

1. Matt Elam, Florida 2.50
2. Phillip Thomas, Fresno St 2.37
3. Bacarri Rambo, Georgia 2.32
4. D.J. Swearinger, South Carolina 1.93
5. Shawn Williams, Georgia 1.92
6. Kenny Vaccaro, Texas 1.91
7. Eric Reid, LSU 1.85
8. TJ McDonald, USC 1.77
9. Tony Jefferson, Oklahoma, 1.70
10. Jonathan Cyprien FIU 1.62
11. Shamarko Thomas Syracuse, 1.47
12. JJ Wilcox Georgia Southern, 1.09

Supplemental Info:

Passive Stat Rankings (55%)
1. Matt Elam, Florida 2.50
2. Bacarri Rambo, Georgia 2.32
3. Phillip Thomas, Fresno St 2.31
4. Kenny Vaccaro, Texas 1.80
5. D.J. Swearinger, South Carolina 1.80
6. Tony Jefferson, Oklahoma, 1.70
7. Shawn Williams, Georgia 1.61
8. Eric Reid, LSU 1.47
9. TJ McDonald, USC 1.42
10. Jonathan Cyprien FIU 1.39
11. Shamarko Thomas Syracuse 1.02
12. JJ Wilcox Georgia Southern 0.45

Resource:

www.cfbstats.com
Active Stat Rankings (15%)

Team Data used:
Team Yds/Attempt (5.9 - 9.3 yds/att)
TDs Allowed (4 - 38 TDs)

1. Matt Elam, Florida 3.54
2. Phillip Thomas, Fresno St 3.03
3. Tony Jefferson, Oklahoma, 2.94
4. Eric Reid, LSU 2.93
5. Bacarri Rambo, Georgia 2.54
6. Shawn Williams, Georgia 2.54
7. D.J. Swearinger, South Carolina 2.39
8. TJ McDonald, USC 2.22
9. JJ Wilcox Georgia Southern 2.21
10. Kenny Vaccaro, Texas 1.95
11. Jonathan Cyprien FIU 1.80
12. Shamarko Thomas Syracuse 1.63

Measurables (25%)

Data used:
Height: 0 - .5pts (69 - 75 inches)
Weight 0 -.5pts (185 - 225 lbs)
40yd 0 - 1.5pts (4.31 - 4.80 secs)
3-cone drill 0 -1.5pts (6.48 -7.43 secs)

1. Shamarko Thomas Syracuse 2.44
2. TJ McDonald, USC 2.34
3. Shawn Williams, Georgia 2.30
4. Bacarri Rambo, Georgia 2.18
5. Kenny Vaccaro, Texas 2.16
6. Phillip Thomas, Fresno St 2.15
7. Eric Reid, LSU 2.12
8. Jonathan Cyprien FIU 2.05
9. D.J. Swearinger, South Carolina 1.98
10. JJ Wilcox Georgia Southern 1.95
11. Matt Elam, Florida 1.85
12. Tony Jefferson, Oklahoma, 0.84

Next position... Defensive Line! Till next time keep moneballin'!

http://moneyballer.blogspot.com/2013/04/top-safety-short-list-41313.html

Nice list

Originally posted by tohara3:
Nice list

Thanks!

I like your method and enjoy reading your rankings

Originally posted by NTeply49:
I like your method and enjoy reading your rankings

Thanks! I'll try to keep them coming...

Nice. I thought Elam looked pretty good too. Without this data.

Originally posted by Young2Rice:
Nice. I thought Elam looked pretty good too. Without this data.

Yeah he hits like Goldson on film... definitely a playmaker on a top SEC defense... would be happy to see him as one of the first two picks.

I also like Phillip Thomas too... he seems to have more coverage skills.. he's in a weaker conference, but the stats are all adjusted for that and he still rates very high.

You also can't beat having a player with a name like Bacarri Rambo....

Originally posted by Young2Rice:
Nice. I thought Elam looked pretty good too. Without this data.

Yeah Elam hits like Dashon and is definitely a playmaker in a top SEC defense. I'd be happy to have him be one of the first two picks.

I also like Phillip Thomas because he seems to have better coverage skills... even though he's from a weak conference, the numbers are all adjusted for that....

You also can't beat having a player with the name Bacarri Rambo huh?