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Evolve don't Revolve

My problem with your logic basically boils down to this:

(1) I think you're too pessimistic about re-signing Crabtree.
(2) I think the WR you draft at #31 or #34 will have less impact on our team THIS YEAR than a DB or DL.

As for (1), I think we can afford Crabtree at Vincent Jackson or Dwayne Bowe money, and I don't think he's crazy enough to think he deserves Megatron money. His negotiation may not go quite as smoothly as we'd like, but I'd be shocked if he leaves. (Great article from AB83Rules: http://www.ninersnation.com/2013/4/7/4192766/49ers-salary-cap-michael-crabtree-future-contract-comparisons)

Regarding (2), the 49ers are the current Super Bowl favorites of the NFL. So while a good GM is always undoubtedly "planning for the future," in this case Baalke needs to plan for the present as well. It's the same reason I raise my eyebrow at all the insistence of trading #34 for a 2014 pick. Sure, that would be fun when next April rolls around, but how does that help us hoist the Lombardi in February?? A good GM can be prudent about the future while also loading up for the present. For the 49ers, that means taking the highest-impact players possible early in the draft. We have an amazing five picks in the first three rounds, which are the rounds where you expect impact starters.

At WR, we already have one of the best one-two punches in the NFL with Crabtree and Boldin. And, fingers crossed he's a breakout player rather than a bust, we have Jenkins who was JUST drafted at the slot you're now advocating burning ANOTHER pick. I haven't even mentioned Manningham or Williams yet (both highly capable #3 types), or the fact that we have another pass catcher on the roster named Vernon Davis.

When you advocate not addressing the S position until later in the draft, I think you're severely diminishing our chances of fielding an elite secondary in 2013. Similarly, when you advocate not addressing the DL until later, I think you're severely diminishing our chances of maintaining an elite front 7 through inevitable fatigue and injuries in 2013.

Our offense is in great hands. Elite OL coming back, CK's star ascending, and all the skill players coming back and improving. It's currently our defense that risks taking a step backward.

EDIT: Caveat to my "all the skill players coming back" comment: I advocate replacing Delanie Walker within the first 3 rounds as well. Love Travis Kelce.
[ Edited by LieutKaffee on Apr 13, 2013 at 1:51 PM ]
  • buck
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Originally posted by RedAu:
Originally posted by NCommand:
More great points. BUT, if VD goes down?

Our offense does not run through VD, but our D's dominance depends almost entirely on the front 3. As for the "hump" we need to get over, it was self inflicted (because of the lack of high quality backups). D allowed just 16 TDs in first 13 games and 19 TDs in last 6.

We need D-Line, OLB, and FS help.

That said a TE in the 3rd would be cool.

Given the frequency that our offensive employs a two-tight end set, find another tight end in the draft is essential.
The tight end that we draft, and drafting one seems obvious, has to an improvement.

We definitely need a free safety. I far as I can tell we do not have a starter at free safety.

The signing of Glen Dorsey has reduced our needs on the defensive line. Although some of the reporters are talking about Dorsey as the presumptive starting nose tackle, I think that it is more likely that Ian Williams or a rookie will be the starter at the nose. Dorsey will provide solid rotational depth at DE.

I am not saying that signing of Dorsey eliminates the need at defensive end, but it does change the level of need.
What the team does in the draft will depend on their evaluation of Demarcus Dobbs; his recovery and his potential.

Finding a potential replacement for Justin Smith would be ideal.

Given the medical condition of Mario Manningham, the consistent poor production of Kyle Williams, the apparent one year rental of Anquan Boldin and the near invisibility of A.J. Jenkins, it seems absolutely clear that we look for a wide receiver in this draft.

Drafting based on need is a fool's game. We will not draft a safety in the first round solely because safety is our biggest need.

Baalke just is not that incompetent or that stupid.

He will set a draft board the intertwines our needs with the quality of players available at each pick.

If the best player on the board matches a need, he will take that player.

If the player is a free safety, he will take him. If that player is a tight end, he will take him.

But, it is how the quality of the players on the board and our needs converge that will determine the pick.

He will not simply draft the best player available. He will draft the best player available at a position of need.

Drafting a nose tackle in the 3rd could also be cool.
[ Edited by buck on Apr 13, 2013 at 1:56 PM ]
Thank goodness we have Baalke and JH as our leaders, so...

I will agree to disagree. First, JH talked a lot to Walsh so I am sure a lot was rubbed off on him. Sorry for sounding like a broken record, but if you want to keep the defense good you need talent. So you must aquire talented people to make a good D. On offense you can get away with lesser talent by the use of schemes to hide your flaws. a good example is Alex Smith on offense. On Defense see what happened when the Smith Brothers got hurt.

The Harbaalke duo doesn't need to do what some are saying, they need to keep with their philosophy. Anytime, management in sports waivers to public opinion, that is a bad sign that their thinking isn't working and will try the popular approach to keep their jobs.

Also, JH has stated that if you want to win you need to excell in the three phases of the game and if you can dominate in two phases of the game, then you increase your chances to winning. Why do you think they are shoring up our ST this FA offseason?

If the ST didn't give up the TD in the SB, different game, if the D gave up one less score during the first half different score. Not saying we don't forget the offense, but we need to address the D IMO. However, I also following the BPA rule also. Sure I want to see a dynamic offense but not at a sacrifice to the D, as the packers, saints and Falcons has shown they can be beat. Why did we beat them? Cause our D was better. I fear them surpassing us if they ever get their D's up to par.

I think with the Addition of Boldin and Hopefully a good TE like Kelce who I think is/will be not only a better receiver than Walker, but a way better blocker, our offense will be better. However, if you want to win that superbowl next year, the needs to be shored up.
  • buck
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Originally posted by WildBill:
Thank goodness we have Baalke and JH as our leaders, so...

I will agree to disagree. First, JH talked a lot to Walsh so I am sure a lot was rubbed off on him. Sorry for sounding like a broken record, but if you want to keep the defense good you need talent. So you must aquire talented people to make a good D. On offense you can get away with lesser talent by the use of schemes to hide your flaws. a good example is Alex Smith on offense. On Defense see what happened when the Smith Brothers got hurt.

The Harbaalke duo doesn't need to do what some are saying, they need to keep with their philosophy. Anytime, management in sports waivers to public opinion, that is a bad sign that their thinking isn't working and will try the popular approach to keep their jobs.

Also, JH has stated that if you want to win you need to excell in the three phases of the game and if you can dominate in two phases of the game, then you increase your chances to winning. Why do you think they are shoring up our ST this FA offseason?

If the ST didn't give up the TD in the SB, different game, if the D gave up one less score during the first half different score. Not saying we don't forget the offense, but we need to address the D IMO. However, I also following the BPA rule also. Sure I want to see a dynamic offense but not at a sacrifice to the D, as the packers, saints and Falcons has shown they can be beat. Why did we beat them? Cause our D was better. I fear them surpassing us if they ever get their D's up to par.

I think with the Addition of Boldin and Hopefully a good TE like Kelce who I think is/will be not only a better receiver than Walker, but a way better blocker, our offense will be better. However, if you want to win that superbowl next year, the needs to be shored up.

Do not worry, Baalke and Harbaugh will not sacrifice our defense. With the number of picks that we have, we can meet our needs on both the offense and the defense.

In the off season, Baalke and company have made moves to strengthen the defense, the offense and special teams. In the draft, they will build on the work already done; they will continue to do what they do--build a winning team.
Originally posted by buck:
Given the frequency that our offensive employs a two-tight end set, find another tight end in the draft is essential.
The tight end that we draft, and drafting one seems obvious, has to an improvement.

We definitely need a free safety. I far as I can tell we do not have a starter at free safety.

The signing of Glen Dorsey has reduced our needs on the defensive line. Although some of the reporters are talking about Dorsey as the presumptive starting nose tackle, I think that it is more likely that Ian Williams or a rookie will be the starter at the nose. Dorsey will provide solid rotational depth at DE.

I am not saying that signing of Dorsey eliminates the need at defensive end, but it does change the level of need.
What the team does in the draft will depend on their evaluation of Demarcus Dobbs; his recovery and his potential.

Finding a potential replacement for Justin Smith would be ideal.

Given the medical condition of Mario Manningham, the consistent poor production of Kyle Williams, the apparent one year rental of Anquan Boldin and the near invisibility of A.J. Jenkins, it seems absolutely clear that we look for a wide receiver in this draft.

Drafting based on need is a fool's game. We will not draft a safety in the first round solely because safety is our biggest need.

Baalke just is not that incompetent or that stupid.

He will set a draft board the intertwines our needs with the quality of players available at each pick.

If the best player on the board matches a need, he will take that player.

If the player is a free safety, he will take him. If that player is a tight end, he will take him.

But, it is how the quality of the players on the board and our needs converge that will determine the pick.

He will not simply draft the best player available. He will draft the best player available at a position of need.

Drafting a nose tackle in the 3rd could also be cool.


I do agree to a point, however, two things about saftey dl and wr in this draft to consider. As you first said, it will be based on need AND bpa. With that said, though I am not a pro prognosticator or scout or expert (anyone who claims to be, then why are you not employed by a team or org.), the level of talent graded for this years class by those in the business - safteys is "A," the wr is graded out as C+, the DL is reported to be graded as "A"-of course this is all on paper.

So the question would be, how would this class stack against years past on paper? Then you can perhaps make a better assessment of what position and who to draft and not reach.

Also, you want to get a player if possible who will see the field a lot. I don't see wr getting much play and catches, at least not more than Kyle or even Manningham which is about 24, unless crabtree and boldin goes down (knock on wood). Especially with the use of 2 TE sets and even 3 TE sets + jumbo packages.
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
My problem with your logic basically boils down to this:

(1) I think you're too pessimistic about re-signing Crabtree.
(2) I think the WR you draft at #31 or #34 will have less impact on our team THIS YEAR than a DB or DL.

As for (1), I think we can afford Crabtree at Vincent Jackson or Dwayne Bowe money, and I don't think he's crazy enough to think he deserves Megatron money. His negotiation may not go quite as smoothly as we'd like, but I'd be shocked if he leaves. (Great article from AB83Rules: http://www.ninersnation.com/2013/4/7/4192766/49ers-salary-cap-michael-crabtree-future-contract-comparisons)

Regarding (2), the 49ers are the current Super Bowl favorites of the NFL. So while a good GM is always undoubtedly "planning for the future," in this case Baalke needs to plan for the present as well. It's the same reason I raise my eyebrow at all the insistence of trading #34 for a 2014 pick. Sure, that would be fun when next April rolls around, but how does that help us hoist the Lombardi in February?? A good GM can be prudent about the future while also loading up for the present. For the 49ers, that means taking the highest-impact players possible early in the draft. We have an amazing five picks in the first three rounds, which are the rounds where you expect impact starters.

At WR, we already have one of the best one-two punches in the NFL with Crabtree and Boldin. And, fingers crossed he's a breakout player rather than a bust, we have Jenkins who was JUST drafted at the slot you're now advocating burning ANOTHER pick. I haven't even mentioned Manningham or Williams yet (both highly capable #3 types), or the fact that we have another pass catcher on the roster named Vernon Davis.

When you advocate not addressing the S position until later in the draft, I think you're severely diminishing our chances of fielding an elite secondary in 2013. Similarly, when you advocate not addressing the DL until later, I think you're severely diminishing our chances of maintaining an elite front 7 through inevitable fatigue and injuries in 2013.

Our offense is in great hands. Elite OL coming back, CK's star ascending, and all the skill players coming back and improving. It's currently our defense that risks taking a step backward.

EDIT: Caveat to my "all the skill players coming back" comment: I advocate replacing Delanie Walker within the first 3 rounds as well. Love Travis Kelce.


Some good points there, but I will table 1 argument which should cover off all your rationale and that is - "Defense doesn't win championships" anymore.

What do you do when are down by 22 ? Your D is not going to win the ball game for you, are they ? The point is no matter how stout your D is, a great team with a great offense is still going to score on you and even score on you big. We got torched by Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez. OK, you might argue Justin Smith wasn't 100%. But, what about the Seahawks ? They have one of the top Ds too and perhpas the best secondary in the entire league. Well, they also got torched by the Falcons in the first half, oh they also got torched by RG3 in a jiffy too before his knee finally gave in.

Then, you look at our receiving corp, things are not as rosy as you painted. Crab and Anquan are great, no argument there. Mario is not going to be ready from his ACL. Kyle might be ready, but at what % ? That only leaves Chad, Ricardo and Marlon (who is more of a special teams guy) as far as wideouts go. As for TEs, Delanie left which is a huge loss. What we need are a couple of top notch playmakers from the 1st 2 rounds to further boost the explosiveness of the O to get us over that hump.
Originally posted by buck:
Do not worry, Baalke and Harbaugh will not sacrifice our defense. With the number of picks that we have, we can meet our needs on both the offense and the defense.

In the off season, Baalke and company have made moves to strengthen the defense, the offense and special teams. In the draft, they will build on the work already done; they will continue to do what they do--build a winning team.

I know they won't, but I have to laugh at those that say the niners must do this .... and their philosophy is so contrary to JH and Baalke. It would be something else if it weren't working. Granted they are not gods and will make flawed decisions. Will I say WTF if it is totally left field...of course, I am fan, but I will also say, okay lets see what happens.

Thing is peoples big boards are different than theirs in the first two rounds than the popular choice. they held certain people higher than others. Aldon and Kaep, were not projected to go where they went. Aldon was projected 4-7 picks later by most and Kaep was a 3rd rounder. I think the talent level matches our needs this year.
Originally posted by WildBill:
I do agree to a point, however, two things about saftey dl and wr in this draft to consider. As you first said, it will be based on need AND bpa. With that said, though I am not a pro prognosticator or scout or expert (anyone who claims to be, then why are you not employed by a team or org.), the level of talent graded for this years class by those in the business - safteys is "A," the wr is graded out as C+, the DL is reported to be graded as "A"-of course this is all on paper.

So the question would be, how would this class stack against years past on paper? Then you can perhaps make a better assessment of what position and who to draft and not reach.

Also, you want to get a player if possible who will see the field a lot. I don't see wr getting much play and catches, at least not more than Kyle or even Manningham which is about 24, unless crabtree and boldin goes down (knock on wood). Especially with the use of 2 TE sets and even 3 TE sets + jumbo packages.

This exactly.
I don't think that your thoughts our way off, I just think that you are worrying about "what-if's" too much. Boldin might play for us more than one year... Crabs might resign... Mario might not ever be the same after his injury... etc...

Drafting BPA is the best way to go but if your team doesn't have a need for a certain position than we might skip the top BPA and move onto the next one on the list. (For instance, we have the 2 best MLB in the game in Willis and Bowman. If we get to pick 31 or 34 and the BPA on the board is a middle linebacker, there's a good chance we skip over that player because he wouldn't have a lot of value. The next BPA might be a TE or DE or OLB so I think you evaluate each position and decide if that player can help your team.)

As far as having an elite offense, I agree that we should give Kaep as many weapons as possible and score as many points as possible. I think we averaged 28 points a game though once Kaep became the starter. We have the entire team back expect for Walker and we even upgraded the #2 wr with Boldin. So I think one of the biggest needs would simply be replacing the #2 TE. Beyond that, we would have 12 other draft picks to upgrade our other positions like DE or OLB or WR or SAFETY. I'm down for trading up for Eifert or just simply taking Kelce. I would actually love to add 2 TE in the draft.
Originally posted by WildBill:
Originally posted by buck:
Do not worry, Baalke and Harbaugh will not sacrifice our defense. With the number of picks that we have, we can meet our needs on both the offense and the defense.

In the off season, Baalke and company have made moves to strengthen the defense, the offense and special teams. In the draft, they will build on the work already done; they will continue to do what they do--build a winning team.

I know they won't, but I have to laugh at those that say the niners must do this .... and their philosophy is so contrary to JH and Baalke. It would be something else if it weren't working. Granted they are not gods and will make flawed decisions. Will I say WTF if it is totally left field...of course, I am fan, but I will also say, okay lets see what happens.

Thing is peoples big boards are different than theirs in the first two rounds than the popular choice. they held certain people higher than others. Aldon and Kaep, were not projected to go where they went. Aldon was projected 4-7 picks later by most and Kaep was a 3rd rounder. I think the talent level matches our needs this year.


You are totally missing the point here. We are not debating on what we think Baalke and Harbaugh may or may not do. They will do whatever they see fit. We, as fans are only voicing out our opinions, that's all there is to it. Being left field doesn't necessarily mean is wrong. You might not agree with others' point of view, others might not agree with yours neither.
Originally posted by Rascal:
Some good points there, but I will table 1 argument which should cover off all your rationale and that is - "Defense doesn't win championships" anymore.

What do you do when are down by 22 ? Your D is not going to win the ball game for you, are they ? The point is no matter how stout your D is, a great team with a great offense is still going to score on you and even score on you big. We got torched by Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez. OK, you might argue Justin Smith wasn't 100%. But, what about the Seahawks ? They have one of the top Ds too and perhpas the best secondary in the entire league. Well, they also got torched by the Falcons in the first half, oh they also got torched by RG3 in a jiffy too before his knee finally gave in.

Then, you look at our receiving corp, things are not as rosy as you painted. Crab and Anquan are great, no argument there. Mario is not going to be ready from his ACL. Kyle might be ready, but at what % ? That only leaves Chad, Ricardo and Marlon (who is more of a special teams guy) as far as wideouts go. As for TEs, Delanie left which is a huge loss. What we need are a couple of top notch playmakers from the 1st 2 rounds to further boost the explosiveness of the O to get us over that hump.

Sounds like you have Jenkins in the bust column, and I'm not quite ready to go there. We drafted him at #30 because of his all-around potential and deep speed. I envision Crabtree, Boldin, and Jenkins lining up all over the formation (Crabtree and Boldin have proven they are dominant on the outside and the slot), and I envision Vernon and a new-drafted TE rounding out our top 5 in terms of passing targets.

Use our five premium (top three rounds) picks on a TE and four defenders. Take a high-upside WR in round 4 or later. Da'Rick Rogers? Corey Fuller? Tyrone Goard?
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Sounds like you have Jenkins in the bust column, and I'm not quite ready to go there. We drafted him at #30 because of his all-around potential and deep speed. I envision Crabtree, Boldin, and Jenkins lining up all over the formation (Crabtree and Boldin have proven they are dominant on the outside and the slot), and I envision Vernon and a new-drafted TE rounding out our top 5 in terms of passing targets.

Use our five premium (top three rounds) picks on a TE and four defenders. Take a high-upside WR in round 4 or later. Da'Rick Rogers? Corey Fuller? Tyrone Goard?


Opps, I did forget about AJ Jenkins. Let's just say he is still a big question mark. I don't see him as the 3rd receiver. I think if anything they will play Kyle first even if he is not 100%. Frankly, I would expect Ricardo to break out before Jenkins. Yes, he was a 1st rounder, but Baalke and Harbaugh are not gods, they make mistakes too.

Going back to the draft, amongst 31st, 34th and 61th, I have to have 1 offensive pick at least, be it WR or TE. That is the most I can handle if it means we get a WR from the later rounds. I really don't want to risk on unknown names. I don't want them to do a Jenkins again, AJ who ? Being smart with your picks is one thing, but just don't get too cute.
Originally posted by Rascal:
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Sounds like you have Jenkins in the bust column, and I'm not quite ready to go there. We drafted him at #30 because of his all-around potential and deep speed. I envision Crabtree, Boldin, and Jenkins lining up all over the formation (Crabtree and Boldin have proven they are dominant on the outside and the slot), and I envision Vernon and a new-drafted TE rounding out our top 5 in terms of passing targets.

Use our five premium (top three rounds) picks on a TE and four defenders. Take a high-upside WR in round 4 or later. Da'Rick Rogers? Corey Fuller? Tyrone Goard?


Opps, I did forget about AJ Jenkins. Let's just say he is still a big question mark. I don't see him as the 3rd receiver. I think if anything they will play Kyle first even if he is not 100%. Frankly, I would expect Ricardo to break out before Jenkins. Yes, he was a 1st rounder, but Baalke and Harbaugh are not gods, they make mistakes too.

Going back to the draft, amongst 31st, 34th and 61th, I have to have 1 offensive pick at least, be it WR or TE. That is the most I can handle if it means we get a WR from the later rounds. I really don't want to risk on unknown names. I don't want them to do a Jenkins again, AJ who ? Being smart with your picks is one thing, but just don't get too cute.

Here's my response about using 31, 34, or 61 on a TE. After reading MadDog mercilessly trash Zach Ertz, let's just say I'm not very excited. Ertz seems to be the only potential TE that makes sense at 31 or 34, unless Eifert has an unexpected fall.

My contingencies for Eifert not falling are Escobar, McDonald, and Kelce. I think you take whichever one is on the board at #74.
  • buck
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Originally posted by WildBill:
I do agree to a point, however, two things about saftey dl and wr in this draft to consider. As you first said, it will be based on need AND bpa. With that said, though I am not a pro prognosticator or scout or expert (anyone who claims to be, then why are you not employed by a team or org.), the level of talent graded for this years class by those in the business - safteys is "A," the wr is graded out as C+, the DL is reported to be graded as "A"-of course this is all on paper.

So the question would be, how would this class stack against years past on paper? Then you can perhaps make a better assessment of what position and who to draft and not reach.

Also, you want to get a player if possible who will see the field a lot. I don't see wr getting much play and catches, at least not more than Kyle or even Manningham which is about 24, unless crabtree and boldin goes down (knock on wood). Especially with the use of 2 TE sets and even 3 TE sets + jumbo packages.

The truth is I do not know all that much. I am just a fan. But, as always I do have some ideas.,

Baalke and company will set their draft board without much concern for the hype of the draft pundits.

I do not really care what round we take the players in, as long as they fulfill our needs. .

I do not think that wide receiver is not as a big of need as safety or nose tackle.

One of the receivers, I value highly is Aaron Mellette from Elon and he will be available later in the draft--I would take him much earlier than most; 4th round comp.

I also think that Phillip Thomas, who I think is one of the best safeties in this class, will be available in the late second or early third.

I would not draft Sharmarko Thomas, and I would be reluctant to take Jonathan Cyprien in the second, much less the first.
Earl Wolff has size, speed, and very good college production is a forgotten safety.

Brandon Williams, who I have rated as the best nose tackle in the draft, will be available between the late 2nd to late third.
Montori Hughes is another potentially solid nose tackle that will be available later in the draft.
I think both of these guys are a better risk than John Jenkins and Jenkins will get drafted before them.

But, I would be willing to trade up a few picks to get Sly Williams because I think he has the potential to be a good replacement for Justin Smith.
But, he would only be a rotational player this year.

We are drafting players, not rounds, positions, sizes, or speeds. We have the picks and we really might use them.
[ Edited by buck on Apr 13, 2013 at 3:18 PM ]
Originally posted by Rascal:
Then, you look at our receiving corp, things are not as rosy as you painted. Crab and Anquan are great, no argument there. Mario is not going to be ready from his ACL. Kyle might be ready, but at what % ? That only leaves Chad, Ricardo and Marlon (who is more of a special teams guy) as far as wideouts go. As for TEs, Delanie left which is a huge loss. What we need are a couple of top notch playmakers from the 1st 2 rounds to further boost the explosiveness of the O to get us over that hump.

And THIS is why you draft that 6'7" playmaking TE in "our" offense. In our offense this TE's (pick and/or VD) can line up at the LOS, in the backfield in the Q or even out wide as a WR. With two dynamic TE's the options are limitless.

And let's be honest here...we're not going to a spread offense anytime soon. Boldin will eat up a lot of passes Walker would have gotten this year and Crabtree will always get his. And let's not forget in our offense, Gore/James/Hunter will be huge factors in getting the ball. We're nowhere close to a traditional (Falcons-style) offense where we have two or three dominant WR's. We'll have one or two dominant WR's with a dominant TE (or two) and a dominant run game.

So in short, I think our TE pick (and the development of Jenkins/Manningham/Williams in the slot) IS our WR pick this year. And don't forget about FA...we've picked up key players in FA such as Manningham, Boldin, Lockette, Moore, etc. easily over the past two years. We are a team FA's want to play for now!

PS: I think the FO believed they should not have passed on Fleener last year, IMHO, esp. since Walker left recently. I don't think they'll make that same "mistake" (for lack of a better term) this year!
[ Edited by NCommand on Apr 13, 2013 at 5:37 PM ]