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Realistic Mock Draft Method

NFL draft is under 3 weeks away, and I'm getting a little antsy. Going crazy with the mocks, and since I received a lot of positive feedback on my mock draft method, I've decided to post how it works and hopefully it'll help you make some quality realistic mock drafts, and help you get acquainted with potential future Niners. Here's my game, hope you enjoy!

How it works: Take 5 or 6 big boards (preferably over 250 players ranked and make sure they're under a month old) and average their overall position on the big boards. Take that number and that is your player's position rating. You may reach for a player up to 2.5 points * the current pick's round (round 1 = 2.5 point reach, round 2 = 5 point reach, round 3 = 7.5, round 4 = 10, round 5 = 12.5, round 6 = 15, round 7 = 17.5) For example, from the 6 websites I used for Datone Jones, he was ranked 40. He had been ranked number 40, 20, 32, 28, 38, and 16 overall for an average score of 29. We have pick 31 so take Datone Jones' average position score of 29, and ad 2.5 and you get 31.5 which makes him qualified to be selected. I'm curious to see some more good, and realistic scenarios.

Here's a list of 49 potential 49ers with my scores of players that I think we're targeting that you can use if you don't feel like doing it yourself.

  1. S J. Cyprien 40.1
  2. S E. Reid 44.2
  3. DE D.Jones 29
  4. CB D. Slay 72.2
  5. CB T. Simon 137.8
  6. C/G T. Frederick 65
  7. DB D. Amerson 75.2
  8. OL D. Quessenberry 144.3
  9. OL J. Baca 230.8
  10. OLB T. Williams 151.5
  11. TE Z. Ertz 35.2
  12. TE T. Kelce 70.3
  13. TE V. McDonald 68
  14. TE R. Otten 176
  15. TE C. Gragg 164.4
  16. TE D. Sims 120.6
  17. WR J. Hunter 54.2
  18. WR A. Dobson 92.2
  19. WR R. Swope 109.4
  20. WR C. Fuller 191.2
  21. WR R. Smith 228.8
  22. TE N. Kasa 143.2
  23. WR M. Wheaton 78
  24. RB L. Bell 119.8
  25. QB M. Scott 123
  26. QB S. Renfree 187.6
  27. C K. Holmes 168.2
  28. C B. Schweke 114.2
  29. DE W. Gholston 155.8
  30. NT K. Geathers 157.2
  31. NT J. Boyd 205.6
  32. OLB B. Jenkins 129
  33. OLB G. Hodges 137.4
  34. ILB A.J. Klein 202
  35. TE J. Reed 98.2
  36. WR R. Woods 38.6
  37. TE G. Escobar 66.4
  38. WR D. Hopkins 24.8 (surprised me)
  39. FS B. Rambo 117.4
  40. SS S. Thomas 95.8
  41. FS TJ McDonald 136.6
  42. OLB K. Greene 70.8
  43. OLB J. Collins 78.2
  44. OLB S. Moore 85.4 (2 websites had him outside top 100 while other 3 I used for him were 49-60)
  45. NT J. Jenkins 59.6
  46. DE M. Hunt 67.2
  47. DE C. Carradine 23.8
  48. WR Q. Patton 53
  49. WR D. Rogers 81.2

Please post your mocks made using this system in this thread, even if you make your own thread, and please list the players position score unless you just use my ratings.
[ Edited by NTeply49 on Apr 13, 2013 at 5:18 PM ]
Talk about taken all tha fun out of mock drafting lol
Just want the draft to get here, tired of all the mock drafts. Hope they can pull something off to get Tavon Austin. In Baalke we trust.
Round 1 Pick 31: Datone Jones DE UCLA (29+2.5=31.5) - Adds pressure up the middle in passing situations and can rotate Smith and McDonald and keep them fresh.
Round 2 Pick 34: Eric Reid S LSU (44.2) or Jonathan Cyprien S FIU (40.1) - I like both of these guys and feel either of them would be worth this pick and one will be here at 34. Both are fast and rangy safeties that aren't afraid to hit, and both can play both safety positions in case we decide to part ways with Whittner.
Round 2 Pick 61: Vance McDonald TE Rice (68) or Travis Kelce TE Cincinnati (70.3) Since we use 2 TE sets as much as anyone we add a playmaker and redzone threat.
Round 3 Pick 74: David Amerson CB/S (75.2) or Darius Slay CB Mississippi State (72.2) Either of these guys adds size, speed, and playmaking ability to our secondary and can match up with bigger receivers.
Round 3 Pick 93: Aaron Dobson WR Marshall (92.2) Very good hands with a tall frame and enough speed to be a deep threat outside with the potential to be a star receiver.
Round 4 Pick 128: Matt Scott QB Arizona (123) - Almost a mirror image of Kaepernick, Harbaugh can groom this guy into a solid back up
Round 4 Pick 131: David Quessenberry OL San Jose St. (144.3) - Flexible offensive linemen who adds depth at tackle and guard
Round 5 Pick 157: Trevardo Williams OLB Conneticut (151.6+12.5) - Great athlete with pass rushing ability
Round 5 Pick 175: Chris Gragg TE Arkansas (164.4+12.5=176.9) - H-Back type tight end - probably best athlete at tight end in draft
Round 6 Pick 180: Josh Boyd NT Mississippi State (205.6) - Underrated nose tackle for Tomsula to groom
Round 7 Pick 227: Rodney Smith WR Florida State (228.8) - Huge wide out with decent speed and leaping ability
Round 7 Pick 246: Jeff Baca OL UCLA (230.8+17.5) - Another flexible linemen with experience at tackle but primarily a guard
Round 7 Pick 252: Rashaan Melvin CB Northern Illinois (246.5+17.5) - Fantastic athlete that's had his stock drop due to injuries
Originally posted by Harkonnenzombie:
Just want the draft to get here, tired of all the mock drafts. Hope they can pull something off to get Tavon Austin. In Baalke we trust.


Get over it. Tavon Austin is going to be either a Viking or a Ram.... both of whom pick twice before we do.
  • buck
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 11,025
Originally posted by NTeply49:
Please post your mocks made using this system in this thread, even if you make your own thread, and please list the players position score.

No. Thanks.
I'm just a simple, hungover dude that just has to say... wut?
I don't want to run them but in the past a couple of things we have done a couple games:

1. Pick any 20 players you think the 49ers could end up drafting. Of course they won't end up with 20 but you want to see how many of them they draft. The winners usually guess 2-3 of our picks. So make a list of 20 players from any round. You can use different strategies.... you can throw up 20 players that you think we could pick at round 31 or 34 and you would probably get at least 1 or 2 right but then you wouldn't have any guesses left for the later rounds. You can throw one player you think we would get at 31 and 34 so you would have 18 left to try and guess the other rounds. Most people spend a majority of their picks on rounds 1-2 since it's easier to guess than getting someone in the mid to late rounds. We have had guys who have had players on their list that we ended up drafting in rounds 6, 7 or UDFA (which we don't have count). It can be for bragging rights. Tie breaker was if two people or more have the most correct then the person who had a player on the list with the latest round won. So if both had 3 correct of their 20, one guy had a 7th rounder the other's latest player guessed was in the 5th the guy with the 7th won the tie breaker since it's less likely to get a 7th than a 5th rounder correct. Sounds complicated but it's not... everyone that participates puts their list of 20 players using whatever strategy they want. Load up on guesses for the early rounds, use them for the later rounds, whatever and after the draft the person running it adds up how many they got right for each poster and the winner is whoever has the most or in case of the tie the most with the latest round pick right.

http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/nfl-draft/165056-49ers-draft-contest-results-winner-tie-brucebossnj-vasco49er/search=Gore_21
There is last year's contest if you want to see how it's ran
----------------------------
2nd thing we did which (takes more effort by the poster running it than the previous game) was have a series of draft questions with the winner having the most points. We would have different sections worth different amounts of points.

Section 1 Worth 1 Point Each: Who gets drafted 1st

Warmack vs Cooper
Patterson vs Austin
Barkley vs Geno
Etc... use the same positions, do like 20 of them to make it worth 20 points for the section.

Next section 2 points each: make say 10 questions to make it worth 20 total points (so we are at 40 total)

How many QBs go in round 1:
How many WRs in Round 1:
Which Position Goes 1st:
49ers select what position 1st:
Will the 49ers draft a kicker?:

Then a 5 point section: (make say 4 of these to equal 20 points)
49ers first selection is (name of player)
First team to trade is (name either one):
How many trades do the 9ers make (if none say 0):
1st Kicker is choosen in round:

So we are at 60 points total, after the draft score them and see what poster has the most points and put up a leader board of everybody's scores.

here is an example of 2011's contest:
http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/nfl-draft/153192-2011-ultimate-nfl-draft-guru-challenge-results/search=Gore_21

Go to the 2nd post for the questions and how it's done. takes effort and whoever runs it has to come back after the draft and score it or it will be a worthless competition.
[ Edited by Gore_21 on Apr 13, 2013 at 8:19 AM ]
Originally posted by Gore_21:
I don't want to run them but in the past a couple of things we have done a couple games:

1. Pick any 20 players you think the 49ers could end up drafting. Of course they won't end up with 20 but you want to see how many of them they draft. The winners usually guess 2-3 of our picks. So make a list of 20 players from any round. You can use different strategies.... you can throw up 20 players that you think we could pick at round 31 or 34 and you would probably get at least 1 or 2 right but then you wouldn't have any guesses left for the later rounds. You can throw one player you think we would get at 31 and 34 so you would have 18 left to try and guess the other rounds. Most people spend a majority of their picks on rounds 1-2 since it's easier to guess than getting someone in the mid to late rounds. We have had guys who have had players on their list that we ended up drafting in rounds 6, 7 or UDFA (which we don't have count). It can be for bragging rights. Tie breaker was if two people or more have the most correct then the person who had a player on the list with the latest round won. So if both had 3 correct of their 20, one guy had a 7th rounder the other's latest player guessed was in the 5th the guy with the 7th won the tie breaker since it's less likely to get a 7th than a 5th rounder correct. Sounds complicated but it's not... everyone that participates puts their list of 20 players using whatever strategy they want. Load up on guesses for the early rounds, use them for the later rounds, whatever and after the draft the person running it adds up how many they got right for each poster and the winner is whoever has the most or in case of the tie the most with the latest round pick right.

http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/nfl-draft/165056-49ers-draft-contest-results-winner-tie-brucebossnj-vasco49er/search=Gore_21
There is last year's contest if you want to see how it's ran
----------------------------
2nd thing we did which (takes more effort by the poster running it than the previous game) was have a series of draft questions with the winner having the most points. We would have different sections worth different amounts of points.

Section 1 Worth 1 Point Each: Who gets drafted 1st

Warmack vs Cooper
Patterson vs Austin
Barkley vs Geno
Etc... use the same positions, do like 20 of them to make it worth 20 points for the section.

Next section 2 points each: make say 10 questions to make it worth 20 total points (so we are at 40 total)

How many QBs go in round 1:
How many WRs in Round 1:
Which Position Goes 1st:
49ers select what position 1st:
Will the 49ers draft a kicker?:

Then a 5 point section: (make say 4 of these to equal 20 points)
49ers first selection is (name of player)
First team to trade is (name either one):
How many trades do the 9ers make (if none say 0):
1st Kicker is choosen in round:

So we are at 60 points total, after the draft score them and see what poster has the most points and put up a leader board of everybody's scores.

here is an example of 2011's contest:
http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/nfl-draft/153192-2011-ultimate-nfl-draft-guru-challenge-results/search=Gore_21

Go to the 2nd post for the questions and how it's done. takes effort and whoever runs it has to come back after the draft and score it or it will be a worthless competition.

Sounds like it could be fun. I was just posting this stuff because it took me so long to compile all the data that I wanted to see if anyone could/would use it, but I think I got my answer