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The more I look at the draft, the more trading down out of the 1st seems to make sense.

Originally posted by SonocoNinerFan:
I wouldn't be shocked if we flip #31 or #34 for a 2014 first rounder and a 3rd rounder or something like that.

I hope so, would be nice if we got the top pick next year and got Clowney
Whew. There are definitely some gamblers here. I agree with SanDiego that we got a boatload of picks and should keep 4, maybe 5(plus comp 3 pickds) . We don't need more picks this yr, we need more quality picks. If trent kept 4-5, we could trade up on maybe 4 picks...IF IT MAKES SENSE. We have to have 2 starting DLs, and one FS/CB. The FS starter is going to be gone between 15-20, and I don't know if baalke is willing to make that kind of leap. Probably not, too expensive. So BPA at 31 and 34 is DL, DL. Then maybe a move up for FS if baalke is worried about getting the best 2nd tier starter. I believe he will burn 5 draft picks to move up on 5 guys. Whatever, we all saw what happened when the D relied on 3DLs to take a beating all yr, and justin was double or tripled virtually all yr. You just can't keep asking a guy to do that. He got injured(happens when you are tired), Aldon got injured, and our DL was half as effective for SB as when guys were fresh. We gotta take two DL starters, and we will. If we end up drafting #15-20, baalke got his FS, and will get his 2 DLs next.

We tried for yrs to draft 3rd rd OGs, and DLs, and it didn't work. You want at starter, draft a starter, not a 3rd rd guy who isn't going to start. Basically I have baalke turning 10 picks into 4, with luck, 5 and trading all others to move up. Every pick in the second rd except #31 would be stellar...but pretty hard. I'm guessing he just drafts 4 guys, 5 tops, plus 3 comps. That means moving...UP.

Incidentally, I am record as having 3 teams help us out and draft qBs in rd 1. IF that happens, our #31 pick is #28 and #34 is #31....and I think Jax, raids, cards, eagles, maybe cleveland are all capable of doing just that. Of that group I think 3 make a mistake and take a good 2nd or 3rd rd QB in the first...and help us out quite a bit.
[ Edited by pasodoc9er on Apr 13, 2013 at 5:33 PM ]
Phoenix's thoughts are well-founded...most experts will tell you the best talent group is between #20 - 70ish, although I think you could extend that toward the end of the 3rd rd easily enough. That said, trading #31 should give us at least a pick in the 2nd rd. Baalke then parlays some other mid-late rd picks to get into the 3rd rd so as to end up with at least 7 in the first 3 rds. TB can mine that field for gold...and fulfill team priorities with quality over quantity, getting Harbaugh an excellent FS, DL, TE, CB, WR, OT, OLB and possibly an ILB, but Harbaugh likes Wilhoite, so they may not draft one. Trading the #31 pick will be the catalyst to get the picks Baalke needs to get the quality Harbaugh wants. Forget trading up in the 1st rd...that's too expensive and could really screw up the potential to get enough quality players.
One consideration with trades is finding a partner willing to give up picks in the second to third rounds in this rich draft.
Originally posted by dtg_9er:
One consideration with trades is finding a partner willing to give up picks in the second to third rounds in this rich draft.

That all depends on what position you're looking for. If you need a safety, then this is a damn good draft to need a safety. But for teams looking at a QB, trading up into the late 1st to guarantee they get the guy they want could be very tempting. I think there will be quite a run on QB's in the late 1st/early 2nd and the 49ers are well positioned to add a very high 4th round pick along with the second round pick they utilize, that additional pick can be turned into a quality player at a position of need such as safety, wide receiver, cornerback, tackle or tight-end.
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Originally posted by SonocoNinerFan:
Of course you have to consider where the team you're trading with will likely finish in the coming season, which I think is why we gave up what we did for the Carolina pick . . . a high 2nd and a 4th for what turned into the 17th overall

Yeah but remember that Carolina went on a late season tear and it could have resulted in even worse draft position. Originally people were expecting a Top 10 pick easy and that didn't happen. Its tough to predict where pretty much any team will end up in a given year.

True, but the deal was still well worth it even at #17.
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
That all depends on what position you're looking for. If you need a safety, then this is a damn good draft to need a safety. But for teams looking at a QB, trading up into the late 1st to guarantee they get the guy they want could be very tempting. I think there will be quite a run on QB's in the late 1st/early 2nd and the 49ers are well positioned to add a very high 4th round pick along with the second round pick they utilize, that additional pick can be turned into a quality player at a position of need such as safety, wide receiver, cornerback, tackle or tight-end.

I believe it's easier to trade up into the first round this year if you are willing to give up multiple second round picks. If the mid to high first round team needs a safety or DL then they may trade. If they need a QB then it becomes a matter of their preference...not much to pick from. Even WR is iffy at the top. There just aren't many can't miss impact players in the draft. Trading for more second round choices would be more difficult because that seems to be where the value is.
Originally posted by dtg_9er:
I believe it's easier to trade up into the first round this year if you are willing to give up multiple second round picks. If the mid to high first round team needs a safety or DL then they may trade. If they need a QB then it becomes a matter of their preference...not much to pick from. Even WR is iffy at the top. There just aren't many can't miss impact players in the draft. Trading for more second round choices would be more difficult because that seems to be where the value is.

There will always be players that somebody values highly enough to trade up for....it happens every year. This year I can see it happening with QB's and guys like Manuel, Barkley, Nassib.....etc.

You're looking at it from a general perspective, yes the depth of this draft is in the 2nd or 3rd rounds but if you're the Jets and you think Jacksonville will take EJ Manuel in front of you, you've got a lot of motivation to trade up. It only takes one team for this to happen.
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
There will always be players that somebody values highly enough to trade up for....it happens every year. This year I can see it happening with QB's and guys like Manuel, Barkley, Nassib.....etc.

You're looking at it from a general perspective, yes the depth of this draft is in the 2nd or 3rd rounds but if you're the Jets and you think Jacksonville will take EJ Manuel in front of you, you've got a lot of motivation to trade up. It only takes one team for this to happen.

True...and it doesn't even have to make sense, as we have seen many times. I'm just not in love with anyone this year...sort of like a number of guys at each position, with reservations for all!
  • fryet
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 2,814
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
I would be. Nobody really does that.

This. Moving a 1st rounder or a near 1st rounder into what may turn out to be a late 1st rounder next year for all anyone knows doesn't make a lot of sense.

Um, I am rather shocked that you just wrote that. That same pick could also turn out to be the #1 overall pick. Worst case scenario you get a pick comparable to what you traded, best case scenario you get a much higher level pick. Considering the current state of the 49er's roster, that is a no brainer trade to make.
  • fryet
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 2,814
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Originally posted by fryet:
I don't see any reason for trading out of the 1st for more picks in the 2nd through 4th. If we trade out of the first, I would expect it to be for future year picks. We already have 5 in the top 3 for this draft, and 13 overall. Getting even more picks this year won't help us.

Sure it would. This team is coming off a Superbowl appearance and they have multiple needs all across the board. Picks next year are nice, but picks next year won't help you win games in 2013 or further develop as players to help you win in 2014.

Just looking at the needs this team could use depth at

DE
NT
FS
SS
WR
TE
OLB
OT

If you can knock out say 6 or 7 of those in the first 4 rounds, why not trade down?

Your strategy treats the late round picks as worthless. They do hold value, and I wouldn't follow a draft strategy that picks players that have next to no change to make the team. Also, since we would have a hard time finding space for 13 picks to make our roster, imo it makes more sense to either combine picks to move up this year (into the sweet spot 2nd to 4th rounds that everyone is talking about), or trade them into future year picks. We have a fair number of high priced free agents that may leave in the next 2 years, so I think it would be prudent to have more picks in future years so that we have more flexibility dealing with any open holes in our roster.

I would not want to trade a quality 1st round pick to get more picks this year that would be of slightly lower quality, plus basically ensures that our lower picks don't have any chance to make the team.
The new rookie scale includes a team option on the fifth year, but only for first round players. I think either the Bills (Nassib) or Eagles (Manuel) will want to move up from 41 or 35 into the end of the first round. That's where we come in. I think we can net a little more than what the value chart says by doing either of these deals.

Crossing my fingers for a steal such as the Eagles sending us #35 and #67 for #31 and #128.
Originally posted by fryet:
Your strategy treats the late round picks as worthless. They do hold value, and I wouldn't follow a draft strategy that picks players that have next to no change to make the team. Also, since we would have a hard time finding space for 13 picks to make our roster, imo it makes more sense to either combine picks to move up this year (into the sweet spot 2nd to 4th rounds that everyone is talking about), or trade them into future year picks. We have a fair number of high priced free agents that may leave in the next 2 years, so I think it would be prudent to have more picks in future years so that we have more flexibility dealing with any open holes in our roster.

I would not want to trade a quality 1st round pick to get more picks this year that would be of slightly lower quality, plus basically ensures that our lower picks don't have any chance to make the team.

When it comes to making the team, I'm actually hoping we use a surprising number of our picks this year. Maybe bring in 10 or 11 guys total. I envision some stiff competition for roster spots between our late-drafted rookies and our fringe backups who have just been around too long. Dobbs, Tufuaku, Brock, McBath? If we can replace them with guys with similar versatility and ST ability, but who are younger with more developmental upside, that's a win for us.
We have a history w/the GM of Clevelan - Lombardi.

Maybe he'd be a trading partner. They have many issues and really need picks. I'm sure he'll want to make an impression ASAP.
i've been on the bandwagon to trade down from 31 for awhile. i agree that there's a lot of value in the 2nd and 3rd rounds and i'd rather have multiple picks there. or we can trade for a pick next year.
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